DraftKings MLB Picks July 31: Don't waste money on Bauer

PITTSBURGH, PA – APRIL 24: The covered field is seen during a rain delay before inter-league play between the Detroit Tigers and the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on April 24, 2018 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images) /

DraftKings MLB Picks July 31: Don’t waste money on Bauer

The Padres and Giants are playing a west coast matinee, so our DraftKings tournament has 14 games tonight. As you may expect on a slate this large, There are a lot of pitching options, but one is price $2,000 more than anyone else and it’s not Scherzer or Verlander. Is he worth the price? We will explore all of that and more, including where to stack since we don’t have a game in Coors. Be sure to keep an eye on trades during the day. They could seriously affect lineups tonight!

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Rain is likely in Pittsburgh and Atlanta. While I believe that the Braves will get the game in at some point, in game delays are likely, therefore I’m leaving all four of these pitchers off of lists. Pittsburgh has a very small window to play, and my general feeling at this time is that this game will be rained out.

The only wind we have tonight is a 14 mph wind out to right in Oakland. That still wont provide much of a boost in that cavernous ballpark.

We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!

These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on!

For you first time players, if you would like $20 in free DraftKings dollars, use this link for the referral bonus with your first deposit of $5 or more! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn those DraftKings dollars into more!

DENVER, CO – JULY 25: Starting pitcher Jon Gray #55 of the Colorado Rockies delivers to home plate in the first inning against the Houston Astros during interleague play at Coors Field on July 25, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Tyler Skaggs ($11,300): The Rays are good at home, but it’s really hard to ignore the numbers on Skaggs here. First off, he put up 20.1 DraftKings points in six innings against the Rays earlier this year. On top of that, Skaggs has a brilliant 2.11 ERA on the road. The Rays don’t hit lefties as well as they probably should. Since Skaggs is a full $2,000 less than Bauer, I like the play to step down here if you plan on playing a top tier pitcher.

Charlie Morton ($11,100): The Mariners are hitting a solid .252 against Morton, but they only have two homers and eight runs in 111 at bats with 21 strikeouts. We saw Cole take care of this offense last night. Honestly, the Mariners have left a lot do be desired on offense lately, scoring only 37 runs in the last 11 games. Morton is probably the most sure thing on the slate, but I think Skaggs has more upside.

Jon Gray ($9,600): Gray has put together back to back dominant starts, both on the road. He is on the road again tonight, but the Cardinals have hit him hard in the past. That said, it’s a small sample size, and Gray really looks locked in right now. He has really good strikeout upside that could help keep your lineup from spiraling even if he gives up a few runs. Anderson shut down the Cardinals last night. Gray could do the same.

Jack Flaherty ($9,400): Flaherty has not come back out for the sixth inning since July 3rd, but it’s not because of poor performances. It seems at though the Cardinals are limiting his innings, which makes me leery to pay this much for him. However, Carlos Martinez racked up nine strikeouts in 4.2 innings last night before leaving with a sore shoulder. There is enough upside to at least consider Flaherty in GPP format. Since the Cardinals taxed their bullpen last night, they may even leave him in there for more than five innings.

Middle Tier:

Danny Duffy ($7,700): The frustrating Duffy got torched by the Tigers in his last start, giving up as many runs as he had in his previous four starts combined. So why use him against Chicago? Despite his struggles this year, Duffy has a 3.54 ERA In 13 road starts and he has racked up 42.6 DraftKings points in three starts against Chicago. There is plenty of potential here, but there is no way I would play him at home.

Trevor Cahill ($7,400): The Jays are only hitting .230 against Cahill in 61 at bats with one homer, five runs, and 13 strikeouts. Cahill has been unhittable at home this year, posting a 0.80 ERA in five home starts. Add to that the struggles of the Jays offense, and you have another pitcher that is wildly underpriced here. Take advantage while you can!

Zack Godley ($7,200): Godley has a solid 3.88 ERA in nine home starts this year. Godley has had a lot of ups and downs this year, but this looks like an up against Texas. The Rangers offense is still not really hitting their stride, and Godley is assured a win with Colon on the other side. This is an affordable price for someone spotted four points here. Give him a handful of strikeouts, and Godley is a strong threat for 20 DraftKings points here.

Bargain Pitchers:

Steven Matz ($6,900): This is going to be a tough one given the inconsistency of Matz this year, but starts are on your side. First off, Matz has faced the Nationals three times already this year and has only allowed six earned runs en route to 47.1 DraftKings points. That’s a strong return for this price. The Nationals are only hitting .210 against Matz in 105 at bats with four homers, seven runs, and 19 strikeouts. When you add in the fact that Matz has an ERA nearly a full run better on the road, well, you have a pretty good sleeper here!

Kolby Allard ($6,300): Allard will make his major league debut in a pretty favorable spot. The Marlins don’t have a lot of power, but they do have some righties that can make him pay for mistakes, so there is risk here. However, Allard posted a 2.80 ERA in 109.1 innings at AAA Gwinnett this year. If you feel like playing roulette with a rookie, Allard could rack up a nice point total here.

Jake Arrieta ($6,200): There is going to be low ownership here because of Arrieta’s horrible road woes early in the season. However, his road ERA is down under 4 now. Still, it takes a big leap of faith to play him in Fenway. For those of you willing to take the plunge because Nola handled them yesterday, the Sox are hitting just .216 against Arrieta in 51 at bats with two homers, but they do have six runs to only eight strikeouts. There isn’t a lot of strikeout upside here though, which makes this a completely contrarian GPP play.

Homer Bailey ($4,200): I tend to think that Homer is going to be a huge chalk play tonight because of the massive park upgrade and the fact that he pitched well against the Cardinals his last time out. Let’s face it, Detroit’s offense is rather awful. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Bailey deliver another quality start. His price is way too low against Detroit.

PHILADELPHIA, PA – JULY 4: Cesar Hernandez #16, Nick Williams #5, Odubel Herrera #37, and Rhys Hoskins #17 of the Philadelphia Phillies high five after the game against the Baltimore Orioles at Citizens Bank Park on July 4, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies defeated the Orioles 4-1. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Drew Pomeranz:

Okay, if the Orioles can chase Pomeranz before the end of five, I don’t trust him against anyone! The Phillies have a solid offense going to another hitter’s park. With a lefty on the hill, Rhys Hoskins is an elite play, as is Cesar Hernandez and Maikel Franco. It’s hard to say no to Herrera and Nick Williams with the way they are hitting as well, though I will likely sub Alfaro in for one of them. That said, I think most will lean towards the left handed Phillies, but Pomeranz will be lucky to make five innings. Those Philly lefties are in play against the Boston bullpen.

New York Yankees vs. Yefry Ramirez:

The Yankees beat up on their former farmhand for four runs in four innings earlier this season. More Yankees reached base than Ramirez retired in that game. That could be the case again tonight. Gardner was the only one to homer off of him, but Greg Bird and Gregorius look like great plays again tonight. Stanton and Neil Walker will finish off my stack. Who’s in yours?

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Bartolo Colon:

Colon’s ERA is 6.71 over his last ten starts, and he has only cracked double digit DraftKings points twice in the last two months. It’s been a rough stretch, and it’s only going to get worse at Chase Field. Goldy, new acquisition Eduardo Escobar, Peralta, and Pollock are all among the elite plays. Ketel Marte looks really good as well. I don’t know that you can go wrong with anyone in a Diamondbacks uniform tonight.

Oakland Athletics vs. Sam Gaviglio:

Gaviglio has really struggled on the road this year, posting a 7.92 ERA in six road starts. The Oakland offense followed the roughing up of Texas in Arlington by scoring just four runs in three games at Coors Field. This is far from a sure thing, but Khris Davis and Matt Olson look strong even if you don’t stack. I also like Chapman, Semien, and Jed Lowrie if you are going with a full stack. Nick Martini leading off looks like a good play as well.

Houston Astros vs. Mike Leake:

The metrics on Leake defy just how serviceable he has actually been. It hints at a lot of good luck for Leake. The Astros hung five runs on Leake in his first start against them. Don’t be shocked if the Astros do it again, even in Seattle. Evan Gattis had the only homer in that game, but I like George Springer, Reddick, and Marwin Gonzalez here too. Alex Bregman caps off the stack, even though this team has less punch with Correa and Altuve out.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Wade Miley:

The Dodgers are hitting .275 against Miley with six homers and 16 runs in 109 at bats. Matt Kemp has two of those homers. Grandal, Machado, Logan Forsythe, and Puig have the others. I’m not all that enamored with Forsythe or Puig. so Muncy needs to be in there for one of them. Cody Bellinger could be worth a look as well.

SAN DIEGO, CA – MARCH 31: Eric Thames #7 of the Milwaukee Brewers and Christian Yelich #22 high-five after beating the San Diego Padres 7-3 in a baseball game at PETCO Park on March 31, 2018 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

The way to attack Arrieta tonight may be with the lefties. Both Benintendi and Moreland have homered off of Arrieta so far. However, Mookie is just 1-5, and J.D. is only 1-9 lifetime against Arrieta. I’m sticking to the marginally cheaper Benintendi and Moreland.

Mike Trout against anything the Rays throw out there is a good idea. He has homered off of opener Ryne Stanek before, and if they go to the lefty Yarbrough afterwards, look out! Justin Upton may be worth a look as well.

If you are thinking Cardinals, the only ones I really have an interest in are Matt Carpenter and DeJong. DeJong has the Cards’ only homer off of Jon Gray, and Carpenter has driven in three runs in six at bats.

Walker Buehler still has strong numbers on the season, but he has given up five homers in his last three starts spanning 10.2 innings. The Brewers have enough power to exploit this. Moose, Christian Yelich, Eric Thames, and Travis Shaw are all on my radar tonight.

Straily’s numbers aren’t terrible against the Braves, but they aren’t that good either. Ozzie Albies is 4-10 with two homers off of Straily already. Markakis and Freeman have taken him deep as well.

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Middle Tier:

Ownership on Masahiro Tanaka is going to be really high tonight after he pitched a three hitter against the Rays last week. I’m still not buying in. Tanaka has allowed ten runs to the Orioles in three starts this year. The chances of him hitting value are astronomical. I would rather use Jones and Schoop, both of whom have homered three times off of Tanaka.

Joey Gallo is worth a look with a righty on the mound, but I’m not all that crazy about any Texas bats. Maybe Choo as well, but I tend to think Godley is going to have a pretty strong outing. There is no sense in forcing Texas bats on a full slate.

Matt Davidson and Jose Abreu have both homered twice off of Danny Duffy. I’m pretty sure that Duffy isn’t pitching a shutout here, so a couple of right handed White Sox aren’t a bad idea in case he gets torched again.

Brian Anderson is a good way to attack a left handed rookie making his major league debut. I’m not sure I want to pay up for Realmuto though.

C.J. Cron is the only current Ray to homer off of Tyler Skaggs. He is worth a look, but I’m not sure that I want any more exposure to this one.

The Reds thumped Boyd in Cincinnati, but the lefty has pitched pretty well at home this year. Joey Votto hit a grand slam off of Boyd in that game. I want him and probably Duvall and Hamilton as well.

The only Royal I really have any interest in is Lucas Duda. He has homered twice off of James Shields in 14 at bats.

This is a night to target Washington righties. Wieters, Michael Taylor, and Zimmerman have all homered against Matz in the past. So has Daniel Murphy. Stay away from Trea. He is just 2-16 lifetime against Matz. Bryce Harper is nearly as bad with a 2-15 mark.

I don’t trust the Mets offense enough to stack, but I want some exposure to the struggling Tanner Roark. Conforto and Brandon Nimmo would be the place to get it. Both of them have homered off of Roark in the past, and they’re about all the offense the Mets have with Cespedes done for the year and Asdrubal gone.

Kyle Gibson has pitched very well on the road, and well against Cleveland this year, but his past stats make it hard for me to pay $8,700 for him against an offense like this. Especially when some guy named Edwin Encarnacion has homered off of him four times and driven in nine in 22 at bats. Yan Gomes is a strong play as well.

The Tigers scored just six runs in the entire series against Cleveland, but I think it would be foolish to not have some sort of exposure to Homer Bailey tonight. Castellanos and Jeimer Candelario look like the best options. Maybe Leonys Martin as well.

Bargain Shoppers:

If for some reason the Pirates and Cubs get their game in, I want Sean Rodriguez. He has three homers and nine RBI against Jon Lester in his career.

Some Twins could be sneaky good plays tonight. The Twins are hitting .261 with six homers and 30 runs in 203 at bats against Trevor Bauer. Bauer was good, but not dominant, in his first start against the Twins this year. Jorge Polanco is cheap, and he has three homers and five RBI off of Bauer already. Eddie Rosario has two homers and nine RBI. I certainly wont talk you out of Mauer either. Mauer is 13-40(.325) with a homer and six RBI against Bauer.

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