MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Tuesday, July 31st Evening Slates

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Tuesday, July 31st Evening Slates

Welcome to a Tuesday edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm or two might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.

Before we go MLB DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:

• The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
• Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
• In this DFS MLB Bargain Bin Quick Hits version, I’ll suggest players that are typically value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). Naturally, check final pricing before making your lineup decisions, as I am not listing salaries in this edition.
• This is not a position-by-position breakdown, but rather, I’m just identifying games where I think there’s value players in potentially favorable fantasy spots.
• The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on Tuesday evening’s slates!

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Tuesday, July 31st Evening Slates Bargain Pitcher

Tyler Skaggs, LAA at TB

Identifying a safe bargain pitching option Tuesday is quite a challenge, as there’s many spots where the metrics simply look too risky. After much deliberation, Skaggs emerges from the pack for me as the one value arm I can place a good bit of trust in, even as his matchup isn’t completely ideal in every sense. After all, the Rays have a proven track record of hitting lefties hard at home throughout the season. That being said, there’s several other numbers that do line up in the southpaw’s favor.

To begin with, he’s been excellent on the road, generating a 2.11 ERA, .236 BAA, .279 wOBA and 63:14 K:BB across 59.2 innings outside of Angel Stadium. He’s also allowed almost 12 percentage points less in hard contact away from home (32.7 percent, as compared to 44.3 percent at Angel Stadium) and his already impressive HR/FB rate dips almost in half from 10.6 percent at home to 5.9 percent on the road. Several other of Skaggs’ relevant numbers are shinier on the road as well — including WHIP (1.12, as compared to 1.27 at home) — and he comes in pitching what might be his best ball of the season — the lefty has only allowed a .242 wOBA and .221 average over 18 July innings while not surrendering a single home run.

The other very appealing aspect of Skaggs’ overall profile is good old-fashioned consistency. He’s rarely been shelled, allowing more than three earned runs only twice in 19 starts, with one of those coming against the Red Sox. The other was at the hands of the Tigers in Comerica Park, and that transpired over two months ago on May 28. Since that point, Skaggs has fallen just one inning short in a June 30 start versus the Orioles of rattling off eight straight quality starts. That’s certainly the type of upside you’re looking for overall in a value option, and particularly on a site like FanDuel that rewards such an accomplishment.

And finally, despite their aforementioned collective success against lefties, the Rays’ projected starting lineup sports just an average .300 wOBA and .133 ISO against lefties, which builds a quality southpaw like Skaggs’ case even further.

ALSO CONSIDER:

Trevor Cahill, OAK vs. TOR

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Tuesday, July 31st Evening Slates Quick Hits

• The Red Sox-Phillies tilt features two quality pitchers in Jake Arrieta and Drew Pomeranz who nevertheless take their lumps on occasion, making it an interesting game to look for value. Pomeranz in particular has some unsightly numbers against both sides of the plate, although his sample size against lefty bats is much smaller with him being a southpaw. He’s yielded a massive .414 wOBA and .268 ISO to right-handed hitters, with the wOBA rising to .447 at Fenway. All affordable right-handed Phillies bats that hit lefties well — including the switch-hitting Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez and Asdrubal Cabrera — deserve consideration. Throw in the likes of Maikel Franco, Jorge Alfaro and even the same-handed Nick Williams (.339 wOBA, .457 CXwOBA against lefties) in tournaments as well.

• On the other side, it’s the left-handed hitters that have gotten to Arrieta the most, and he’s allowed a .345 wOBA to them on the road. To that end, Mitch Moreland qualifies as a strong value candidate, and he’s had some solid success against Arrieta in the past (.375 average, one home run and no strikeouts over 11 plate appearances). Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Brock Holt are also worthy of a look in large-field tournaments as far as cheap lefty Boston bats.

• Lefty bats have given Orioles starter Yefry Ramirez trouble as well, which puts the switch-hitting Aaron Hicks (where affordable), Brett Gardner, Greg Bird and Neil Walker (also switch) into play Tuesday. Didi Gregorius is naturally also worthy of a look if cheap enough.

• Meanwhile, several Orioles have a favorable track record against Yankees righty Masahiro Tanaka, and given the red-hot bats many are currently wielding, this is a spot to consider for tournaments. Adam Jones brings the ideal combination of a hot streak and favorable history against Tanaka, as he’s touched him up for a .367 average, including three homers, over 30 plate appearances. Jonathan Schoop has a trio of round trippers against the Yankees starter as well over 31 career encounters. Tanaka has struggled against righty bats at home overall (.356 wOBA, 41.9 percent hard contact allowed), so also consider the likes of Mark Trumbo, Joey Rickard, Tim Beckham, Trey Mancini and Caleb Joseph.

• Tanner Roark turned in an out-of-nowhere eight-inning, three-hit scoreless effort against the Brewers in his last start, but he’s pitched to plenty of contact over many other starts this season. He’s been especially bad at home, yielding a .361 wOBA overall, including a .391 figure to left-handed hitters. Given those numbers, it’s little surprise that Brandon Nimmo already owns a .667 average against him over six plate appearances and therefore makes for an excellent value option. Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil and Luis Guillorme would also qualify for large-field tournaments in particular. Among the right-handed value bats, Jose Bautista always carries some power upside and is worth a look.

• The Mets’ Steven Matz has been a quality pitcher overall this season, but the Nationals have hit lefties very well at home. The same-handed duo of Daniel Murphy and Juan Soto hit southpaws well and can be considered, while Mark Reynolds owns a .415 CXwOBA versus lefties and a .364 average against Matz over 11 career plate appearances.

• Interestingly, the Cubs’ Jon Lester has considerably more trouble with lefty bats, yet a lot of those hard hits have come at Wrigley. He’s been much more effective against them on the road, but Austin Meadows (.500 average and one homer against him) is an interesting tournament play if he’s in the lineup.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Tues. July 31st Evening Slates Quick Hits (cont.)

• The Pirates’ Jameson Taillon has been touched up by lefty bats on occasion (.322 wOBA allowed at home), but he doesn’t give up much hard contact. Anthony Rizzo has an excellent track record against him, but he’s likely to be priced outside of value range. However, Jason Heyward (.365 CXwOBA against righties) and Kyle Schwarber (.484 CXwOBA against righties) are both certainly in play.

• The Reds-Tigers tilt could certainly be where many focus Tuesday, as Homer Bailey takes the hill for the Reds. Bailey pitches to plenty of contact — as evidenced by a pedestrian 14.5 percent strikeout rate — and he’s been battered by hitters from both sides of the plate. That puts all Tigers value options in play, which is essentially the majority of their hitters with the possible exception of Nick Castellanos, who might be priced above value range on some sites. Leonys Martin and the switch-hitting Niko Goodrum have both hit right-handed pitching especially well, and in both of their cases, also worth noting that the Reds bullpen has allowed a 12.00 ERA and .382 wOBA (including four homers) to left-handed hitters on the road in the last month.

• On the other side of the matchup, the Tigers’ Matthew Boyd has been hit hard on occasion, but he’s been very good at home. Therefore, I’m not overly high on Reds bats in this matchup, but in terms of cheap options that hit lefties well, Tucker Barnhart and Phillip Ervin can certainly be considered as tournament flyers.

• The Rays are going with a “bullpen day” Tuesday, and that could open up some opportunity for the Angels. Tampa relievers took an absolute beating over the weekend in Baltimore, and they’ve pitched the most innings of any ‘pen in the majors over the last week (40.2), while giving up a .369 wOBA. Opener Ryan Stanek has mostly been effective this season, but beyond that, the getting could be good for Los Angeles value bats of either handedness.

• One of the Marlins’ Dan Straily‘s Achilles heels has been lefty batters on the road, where they’ve tagged him for a .361 wOBA, 32.4 percent line-drive rate and 34.3 percent hard contact rate. Nick Markakis immediately stands out as an excellent value play if affordable, as not only does he boast a 28.8 percent line-drive rate and .417 CXwOBA against righties, but a .350 average over 21 plate appearances against Straily as well. Other candidates among cheap lefty bats are Ender Inciarte and the switch-hitting Johan Camargo. Among value righty bats, keep Kurt Suzuki (.400 average against Straily over 10 plate appearances) in mind.

• The Braves are rolling out promising prospect Kolby Allard for his first major-league start Tuesday, and while he’s somewhat of an unknown quantity like all first-time starters, it’s notable that he simply does not give up many home runs. The Marlins don’t have many hitters with impressive numbers versus southpaws either, but Brian Anderson (.437 CXwOBA against lefties) is one exception that’s definitely worth a look in tournaments.

• There could certainly be some balls flying out of the park at Guaranteed Rate Field on Tuesday with the inconsistent Danny Duffy and James Shields taking the hill for the Royals and White Sox, respectively. On the White Sox side, Jose Abreu , Matt Davidson, Kevan Smith and Avisail Garcia have particularly strong histories against Duffy, and all hit lefties well. Tim Anderson and Leury Garcia have also enjoyed plenty of success versus southpaws and should therefore be considered too.

• Meanwhile, the Royals’ Salvador Perez, Lucas Duda, Alex Gordon, Adalberto Mondesi and Brian Goodwin all hit right-handers very well and should be considered for tournaments against Shields.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Tuesday, July 31st Evening Slates Quick Hits (cont.)

• The Twins’ Kyle Gibson is enjoying a very solid season despite his won-loss record of 5-7 not necessarily reflecting it, but several Indians bats have traditionally given him nightmares. Among the cheaper ones, that would be the likes of Jason Kipnis (.444 average over 36 plate appearances) and Yan Gomes (.444 average over 28 plate appearances). If affordable, Edwin Encarnacion is also definitely worthy of consideration, considering he’s taken Gibson deep four times and knocked in nine runs against him overall in 27 career encounters.

• You typically aren’t going to make a living targeting Trevor Bauer in DFS, but worth noting for those with a contrarian streak that Joe Mauer and Logan Morrison are two lefty value Twins bats that have had past success against him and hit righties well, while three of Jorge Polanco‘s four career hits against Bauer have been home runs. Eddie Rosario (.400 average over 32 plate appearances) is also interesting if affordable.

• Several Cardinals have had past success against the Rockies’ Jon Gray, who’s generated a 5.89 ERA on the road. Marcell Ozuna and Matt Carpenter (where affordable) stand out as nice options, as do Paul DeJong and Yadier Molina.

• The Rangers’ Bartolo Colon can go either way with his performances, but he’s had his share of troubles on the road against right-handed hitters (.342 wOBA allowed, including eight homers). If affordable, A.J. Pollock is appealing, as is Nick Ahmed. However, the value lefty bats who hit righties well — Jon Jay, David Peralta, Daniel Descalso — can certainly be considered also, while Alex Avila (.500 average, including two homers) has a successful track record against Colon to fall back on.

• On the other side, be on the lookout for the D-Backs’ Zack Godley‘s troubles against lefty bats at home (.342 wOBA) when making your lineups. Shin-soo Choo, Rougned Odor, Joey Gallo, the switch-hitting Jurickson Profar and Ronald Guzman all come to mind as value options.

• Consider giving A’s bats that are running hot and hit righties well — Nick Martini, Matt Chapman and Stephen Piscotty among them — consideration against Sam Gaviglio. Matt Olson is also worth a look given his power upside and ability to destroy righties. The Blue Jays bullpen has also proven ripe for the picking lately, yielding a .452 wOBA over the last week of play.

• The Astros’ Charlie Morton has encountered some trouble with lefty bats on the road, allowing a .355 wOBA, 25.5 percent line-drive rate and 47.9 percent hard contact rate to that handedness away from Minute Maid Park. Denard Span and Ben Gamel could thus make for likely low-owned value plays in tournaments, as could Dee Gordon.

• On the other side, Mike Leake can be a difficult pitcher to decipher, but his high 80s fastball always has the potential to get him in trouble when it doesn’t conform to what he wants. With right-handed hitters owning a .339 wOBA against him, give consideration to Evan Gattis, J.D. Davis, Max Stassi and Yuli Gurriel as a quartet of affordable Astros bats.

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