DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Wednesday, August 1

Welcome into the Wednesday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We’ll be working on the six game main slate today, so let’s get to work.

What a wild DFS MLB Tuesday it was in the major leagues! The trade deadline was absolutely nuts with a lot of premium names on the move by the time 4 PM hit. That was almost nothing compared to the fireworks the Nationals offered up last night and if you didn’t have a couple of their hitters, it may have been a tough night. We only have six games tonight but that doesn’t mean we can’t make some money so it’s time to dig in!

DFS MLB – Cubs at Pirates

Cubs Probable Starter – Cole Hamels, LHP 

4.72 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 22.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .290 average, .357 wOBA, 15.1 K rate, 24.0 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .251 average, .348 wOBA, 24.0 K rate, 35.1 fly ball rate and 47.0 hard hit rate

The pitching options on this slate are not for the faint of heart. If you’re looking for a safe option, you may want to take a break and play tomorrow. Since the options are slim, Hamels could be an option based off his pedigree but he’s not someone I’m playing. Hamels throws a good mix of pitches so that’s not something I want to focus on. The home runs that Hamels has been giving up is what I’m after because he’s given up 22 to right handed hitters so far this year. The Pirates will likely throw out seven righties so there is some power potential. The catching duo of Francisco Cervelli and Elias Diaz are appealing. I’d rather play Diaz with his .246 ISO than Cervelli’s .150 and it’s really nice the Buccos are cheap again.

Jordan Luplow might lead off again and he’s plenty viable even with a .299 wOBA because he has a .214 ISO to help make up for it. David Freese has just a .320 wOBA but he’s been hot in his starts lately and should be considered. Even Gregory Polanco is in the running. Hamels has only given up one homer to a lefty but he’s still getting smacked by lefty hitters. It wouldn’t be surprising if the Buccos ruin the debut of Hamels for the Cubbies tonight.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Elias Diaz/Francisco Cervelli, David Freese, Gregory Polanco(GPP)

Secondary Options – Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer, Jordan Luplow

Pirates Probable Starter – Nick Kingham RHP 

4.80 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 21.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .272 average, .377 wOBA, 14.4 K rate, 40.6 fly ball rate and 32.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .203 average, .277 wOBA, 27.8 K rate, 37.6 fly ball rate and 34.9 hard hit rate

Kingham has been up and down in the majors but this spot might be a down game from him. The Cubs have enough lefties to put in the lineup that are going to be a challenge for him. It’s a small sample size of six plate appearances but Kyle Schwarber and Anthony Rizzo have an xwOBA of .479 and .498, respectively. They also rate highly against the pitch mix with xwOBA’s over .385. Schwarber is down to $3,100 and is a very solid GPP option. Speaking of GPP options, Ian Happ is cheaper and has a higher wOBA against righties. He strikes out a whopping 34.5 percent of the time so it’s tough to feel comfortable with him for cash games. They don’t carry the same power upside, but Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist will likely hit second and third in the lineup, have wOBA’s over .330 and are under $3,000. Rizzo is the most expensive option and was quiet last night. He might fly under the radar and a stack of the 1-2-3 hitters and then either Happ or Schwarber makes a lot of sense tonight.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber

Secondary Options – Ian Happ, Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist

Home Run Pick – Jordy Mercer

DFS MLB – Angels at Rays

Angels Probable Starter – Nick Tropeano, RHP 

4.82 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 20.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .289 average, .371 wOBA, 19.6 K rate, 35.8 fly ball rate and 43.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .203 average, .317 wOBA, 21.7 K rate, 48.4 fly ball rate and 40.9 hard hit rate

Lefty hitters for the Rays, come on down! We have to start with the power bat of Jake Bauers. The young gun has amassed a .252 ISO and a .357 wOBA so far and he rates well against the main three pitches for Tropeano with a .398 xwOBA. Tropeano isn’t exactly a strikeout artist so if he can’t miss the bat of Bauers, it might not end well for him. I’m also interested in Mallex Smith because his odds of getting on base seem pretty good. He’s just $2,500 and has plenty of stolen base upside, which is always attractive on FanDuel. Perhaps one of the better contrarian options might just be Ji-Man Choi. He’s a lefty hitter that’s only $2,400 and he has a respectable .156 ISO and a .349 wOBA. Considering it’s only a six game slate, grabbing a couple cheap Rays could be a difference maker if they hit.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jake Bauers

Secondary Options – Mallex Smith, Ji-Man Choi, Joey Wendle

Rays Probable Starter – TBD 

I’m not sure the Rays know who is going to pitch the rest of the way. They traded Nathan Eovaldi and Chris Archer. Blake Snell is still on the disabled list. That was about the extent of their reliable starters so we’re going to see a lot of the bullpen arms. The issue becomes how to weigh the risk and reward of hitters like Kole Calhoun and Shohei Ohtani. They fare much worse against lefty pitching and even if we think we know who is going to be the main pitcher, the Rays are going to be full of surprises. The only two safe hitters are Mike Trout and Andrelton Simmons. The plan will hopefully be fleshed out during the day so we can utilize the offense a little heavier if we want. It’s not wise to totally write of a team on a small slate.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mike Trout

Secondary Options – Andrelton Simmons, TBD

Home Run Pick – Ji-Man Choi

DFS MLB – Marlins at Braves

Marlins Probable Starter – Pablo Lopez, RHP 

5.34 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 19.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .281 average, .344 wOBA, 21.3 K rate, 25.6 fly ball rate and 34.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .226 average, .328 wOBA, 16.7 K rate, 27.9 fly ball rate and 30.2 hard hit rate

This isn’t a very good matchup for Lopez on paper. Lefties have been better, although it’s only a 28.2 innings sample size. Ronald Acuna has been heating up in a hurry and we’re seeing why he was so highly regarded in the minors. Among the regular players, he has the highest ISO at .237 and Lopez has given up three home runs to righties. He’s not striking them out either which has to be a concern. Lopez has a 5.95 FIP to righties so Acuna is in a prime spot. After that, Lopez gets to face a bunch of lefty hitters and they’re hitting for a much higher average so far. Ozzie Albies has the next highest ISO at .230 and we haven’t even talked about Freddie Freeman yet. One of the better hitters in baseball gets a mediocre/poor righty to feast on. Atlanta could well put up a crooked number yet again.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies

Secondary Options – Nick Markakis, Johan Camargo, whoever catches

Braves Probable Starter – Anibal Sanchez, RHP

3.00 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 23.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .209 average, .287 wOBA, 25.0 K rate, 36.4 fly ball rate and 30.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .213 average, .290 wOBA, 21.9 K rate, 43.6 fly ball rate and 27.0 hard hit rate

Miami doesn’t have the highest strikeout rate against righty pitching but Sanchez is actually in the running for being a pitcher we use tonight. The $8,500 Sanchez costs isn’t totally appealing but your hand might be forced into a player you’re not crazy about. The one hitter that I’m interested in no matter where you fall on Sanchez is J.T. Realmuto. He’s just mashing righty pitching and survived the trade deadline. Sanchez is giving up a lot of fly balls to righties and Realmuto has a .246 ISO to make him pay for that metric. You can chase Justin Bour for a cheap home run possibility but it’s a hard sell when we’re looking at the metrics.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – J.T. Realmuto

Secondary Options – Justin Bour

Home Run Pick – Ronald Acuna stays hot

DFS MLB – Royals at White Sox

Royals Probable Starter – Jakob Junis, RHP 

5.06 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 20.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .275 average, .355 wOBA, 18.0 K rate, 42.3 fly ball rate and 41.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .250 average, .341 wOBA, 23.4 K rate, 38.6 fly ball rate and 41.6 hard hit rate

A little peek behind the curtain here, but when I saw this matchup, I let out a pretty big sigh because I knew I was going to actually look at Junis in this game and I kind of hate myself for it. Junis has not been a good pitcher by about any measure and he’s surrendered 25 home runs so far. The one factor that attracts me here is the strikeout rate for the White Sox against righty pitching. It’s over 25 percent and that’s a huge number. Also, it’s not like the White Sox are the most consistent offense around. It wouldn’t surprise if they came up small tonight.

There’s also a case to be made for a White Sox stack. People might head to Yoan Moncada and that makes sense but $3,500 is a good bit plus he has a .257 xwOBA against righty sliders. That’s a pitch Junis throws 35 percent of the time. In the probably irrelevant BvP category, Matt Davidson does have two bombs in three at-bats off of Junis. A super sneaky play if you believe in xwOBA is lefty Nicky Delmonico. He has a monster .537 off of righty sliders and is just $2,300.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – A three or four man stack

Secondary Options – Nicky Delmonico one-off

White Sox Probable Starter – Dylan Covey, RHP 

5.40 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 16.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .272 average, .339 wOBA, 19.8 K rate, 28.6 fly ball rate and 40.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .277 average, .319 wOBA, 12.0 K rate, 20.4 fly ball rate and 32.7 hard hit rate

Covey throws his sinker at a very high rate to both sides of the late so that’s a pitch we want to focus on. With the understanding of it’s a very small sample size for their hitters, the Royals destroy that pitch. Adalberto Mondesi sits atop the mountain(through three at bats) with a .690 xwOBA,. Whit Merrifield is also a king against the pitch at .628. It’s one of the few reasons that I would consider Merrifield against a righty pitcher. At least he has the stolen base upside to make up for his lack of power against the handedness. Lucas Duda is probably the best option among the well-known players. He’s not having the greatest year but does have a .196 ISO and a .505 xwOBA against the sinker. They make for an interesting stacking option tonight, which is something we virtually never say about Kansas City.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Lucas Duda, Adalberto Mondesi, Alex Gordon

Secondary Options – Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez, Jorge Bonifacio, Alcides Escobar

Home Run Pick – Nicky Delmonico

DFS MLB – Rockies at Cardinals

Rockies Probable Starter – Kyle Freeland, LHP 

3.13 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 18.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .207 average, .264 wOBA, 27.9 K rate, 33.8 fly ball rate and 28.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .242 average, .307 wOBA, 16.0 K rate, 34.5 fly ball rate and 31.1 hard hit rate

I may not know how the rest of the roster construction will come together but Jedd Gyorko is basically locked in for me as long as he’s in the lineup. Freeland doesn’t strike out a bunch of righty hitters and if Gyorko gets his bat to the ball, there’s likely to be damage done. He smashes the two main pitches for Freeland with a .521 xwOBA and then carries a 1.070 OPS, .306 ISO and a .447 wOBA. You get all of those metrics for just $2,800 which seems like a massive bargain. I usually would play Matt Carpenter against a lefty without concern but Freeland has done very well against that side of the plate. Marcell Ozuna has seen some big games recently and his price has jumped up because of that but I wouldn’t worry about using him tonight. Despite all his struggles this season, he still owns an ISO of .174 and .351 wOBA. Freeland is a GPP option but nothing more.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jedd Gyorko

Secondary Options – Marcell Ozuna, Harrison Bader, Yairo Munoz

Cardinals Probable Starter – Luke Weaver, RHP 

4.70 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 21.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .287 average, .358 wOBA, 19.3 K rate, 35.0 fly ball rate and 33.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .225 average, .282 wOBA, 23.1 K rate, 38.4 fly ball rate and 33.8 hard hit rate

If it was any other pitcher but Weaver, I’d be fine throwing him in a GPP. Seeing as how Luke Weaver has not been good at all, I probably can’t bring myself to do it. Conversely, there’s only three hitters that I’m looking at for the Rockies. Nolan Arenado is fine because he’s such a good hitter but I wouldn’t say there’s a metric that points to him in a major way. I’m mainly looking at Carlos Gonzalez as a GPP option and Charlie Blackmon as the best choice of any of them. He’s under $4,000 which hasn’t been the case very often in the past year and a half. Weaver struggles with lefties and Blackmon has a .254 ISO and a .377 wOBA against righty pitching. The game might not be in Coors Field but Blackmon has hit 13 homers on the road compared to seven at home.

Rockies Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Charlie Blackmon

Secondary Options – Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez

Home Run Pick – Charlie Blackmon

DFS MLB – Brewers at Dodgers

Brewers Probable Starter – Chase Anderson, RHP 

3.69 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 19.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .206 average, .295 wOBA, 20.3 K rate, 41.4 fly ball rate and 35.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .234 average, .318 wOBA, 18.2 K rate, 45.4 fly ball rate and 36.9 hard hit rate

This Dodgers lineup is just ridiculous. Even with Justin Turner on the disabled list, they can put out a core of Manny Machado, Max Muncy, Brian Dozier, Cody Bellinger and Matt Kemp. Chris Taylor is probably going to be a bench player when Turner gets back. I don’t think I’m going to be playing pitchers against the Dodgers very much anymore. I’m not even too concerned about the splits for Anderson because they’re not that major. He’s giving up a ton of fly balls and this lineup should have six or seven hitters with an ISO over .200 against righties, if that includes Dozier. I want to see how the lineup shakes out but Manny Machado and Max Muncy are the primary options right now and Joc Pederson is right there as well. The Dodgers are going to be lethal every night.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Max Muncy, Manny Machado

Secondary Options – Joc Pederson, TBD after the lineup comes out

Dodgers Probable Starter – Rich Hill, LHP 

3.82 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 26.2 hard hit rate

Vs LHH – .203 average, .281 wOBA, 19.0 K rate, 34.7 fly ball rate and 32.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .255 average, .336 wOBA, 28.8 K rate, 39.7 fly ball rate and 48.6 hard hit rate

Hill has been mostly good lately and made mechanical tweaks during his most recent disabled list stint. That gives me some pause before going headlong into a Brewers righty stack, but at least two are still pretty attractive. The leader in ISO is Jesus Aguilar and he has one homer since the All-Star break. His price is back down to $3,200 so that helps his case immensely. Lorenzo Cain is the best hitter on the team against lefties with a .423 wOBA and he’s only going to cost you $2,900 tonight. Even though Hill has the potential to dominate, I doubt I can pass on that price. Players might run to Ryan Braun in this spot but it’s worth noting that he’s carrying just a .304 wOBA against lefties. that’s a massive drop for him. Depending on if Jonathan Schoop plays, he would be a fine option as well. The price is steep but the production lately has been outstanding.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Three man stack with Schoop, Aguilar and Cain

Secondary Options – Any of those three as a one-off

Home Run Pick – Jesus Aguilar

DFS MLB – FanDuel Sample Lineup

P – Anibal Sanchez 

C/1B – Jake Bauers 

2B – Ben Zobrist

3B – Jedd Gyorko

SS – Jordy Mercer

OF – Ronald Acuna, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Trout

Utility – Kyle Schwarber

It feels gross putting Sanchez in the pitching slot but that’s where I’m landing right now. Bauers is in a fantastic spot at a great price point, and Zobrist just feels safe with his price point. Gyorko is one of the best values on the slate in my eyes so he’s locked, as is Cain. The price points on those two are just begging you to play them. I’ll punt with Mercer against a lefty because I’m not crazy about fading Mike Trout against Rays pitching with only six games. Tack on Schwarber and Acuna and we’re looking good as things stand.

The Core – Mike Trout, Jedd Gyorko, Lorenzo Cain

Pitching Options 

High End – Rich Hill(GPP), Anibal Sanchez

Mid-Range – Tyler Anderson

Punts – Jakob Junis

Stacks to Consider – Cubs lefties and Pirates righties game stack, Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, Kansas City Royals

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.