How do LeBron James and the new-look Los Angeles Lakers measure up against the other Western Conference title hopefuls?
LeBron James’ decision to sign with the Los Angeles Lakers this summer not only widened the gap between the Western and Eastern Conferences, but it also further muddied the West’s postseason picture.
No fewer than 11 Western Conference teams will enter the 2018-19 season with playoff aspirations, and the Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks could be 40-win squads, too. Barring any blockbusters, the Sacramento Kings and Phoenix Suns look like the only two West teams who won’t be in postseason contention.
Where do the Lakers fit into that dynamic? That’s where it gets complicated.
As currently constructed, the Lakers don’t appear to be a championship-caliber team. Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and the Golden State Warriors likely aren’t losing sleep over James’ move to L.A., as he’s now paired with a bunch of playoff neophytes and a hodgepodge of veterans from the Island of Misfit Toys.
“There’s gonna months where we’re really good, there’s gonna be months where we’re not so good,” James told reporters Monday at the opening of his foundation’s I Promise School in Akron, Ohio. “And that’s just gonna come from familiarity.”
When James joined forces with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in 2010-11, the Miami Heat got off to a rocky 9-8 start before they ripped off a 12-game win streak and finished the season at 58-24. When James went back to the Cleveland Cavaliers four years later, they were below .500 in mid-January before they likewise went on a 12-game win streak and wound up with a 53-29 record.
It’ll take time for James, Rajon Rondo, Lance Stephenson, Michael Beasley and JaVale McGee to develop chemistry with holdovers such as Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma, Josh Hart and Ivica Zubac. James can (and will) single-handedly bail the Lakers out during their feeling-out period early in the season, but his teammates can’t fall back on that as a crutch.
Instead, the Lakers need to treat the regular season like an 82-game chemistry experiment for them to figure out which lineups work best together ahead of the playoffs.
“We may not see this on day one, but the coaching staff is eager to see our version of the [Warriors’] Death Lineup with Lonzo, Josh Hart, Brandon Ingram, Kuzma and LeBron,” a Lakers executive told Bleacher Report’s Eric Pincus in mid-July.
Center appears to be the Lakers’ biggest Achilles’ heel at the moment. None of McGee, Zubac and rookie Moe Wagner profile as difference-makers, which could force either James or Kuzma into shouldering more minutes at the 5. Those small-ball units could be lethal in limited doses, but relying on them too heavily could prove costly throughout the grind of the regular season.
Between the Lakers’ hole at center and their lack of knockdown shooters, it’s easy to envision them struggling to make the playoffs despite James’ heroics. Given how competitive the Western Conference will be night in and night out, they won’t have much of a grace period to adjust to one another. If they fall into too deep a hole early in the season, it’ll be difficult if not impossible for them to dig themselves out.
However, there’s also a scenario in which the Lakers wind up being the Warriors’ biggest threat out West.
While many of their free-agent signings this summer appear befuddling at first glance, there’s a method to the madness. According to ESPN.com’s Brian Windhorst and Ramona Shelburne, the Lakers pitched James on a team “stocked with tough-minded playmakers like Stephenson and Rondo who could free up James to finish in the lanes and from the post, rather than having to create the lion’s share of the offense himself.”
“I think to try to play the Warriors at their own game is a trap,” Lakers general manager Rob Pelinka told reporters in mid-July. “No one is going to beat them at their own game, so that is why we wanted to add these elements of defense and toughness and depth and try to look at areas where we will have an advantage.”
Rondo is one of the NBA’s most cerebral players, and the passing lanes both he and James create will help the rest of their teammates become better shooters. Stephenson, Hart and Caldwell-Pope will be versatile antagonists on defense. If Ball, Ingram and/or Kuzma take another step forward, the Lakers may have a sneaky strong mix of counters to the Warriors and the West’s other top contenders.
In the meantime, they’ll focus on building a championship culture one day at a time.
“One thing we can’t do is lose focus on what the main goal is, and the main goal is to continue to be as great as we can be every day,” James told ESPN’s Rachel Nichols on Monday. “Build championship habits—and I’m not even saying that we’re a championship team now—but building championship habits so when we get to that point, we can fall back on something.”
Unless injuries ravage the Warriors, the Lakers won’t pose a serious threat to them in 2018-19. The Houston Rockets, San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder and Utah Jazz all figure to be in the next tier of Western Conference playoff squads, and there’s no guarantee James and the Lakers are better than any of them, either.
Then again, we saw how far James can drag a squad during the 2018 playoffs. A berth in the Western Conference Finals isn’t outside of the realm of possibility.
Ultimately, the Lakers are likely to struggle in the early portion of the season, which may wind up costing them a top-four seed in the playoffs. So long as they avoid the Warriors’ side of the playoff bracket, though, they could wind up making it through the first two rounds of the postseason unscathed.
Considering James is riding an eight-year streak of NBA Finals appearances, anything short of a ninth straight trip may seem like a disappointment. But seeing as the Lakers have won exactly two playoff series since their most recent championship in 2010, a berth in the Western Conference Finals would be an enormous step forward for this recently beleaguered franchise.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Basketball Insiders.