MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Wednesday August 1
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Tuesday night’s MLB DFS slate was a big letdown for me as once lock hit I was really excited to see single digit ownership on the Dodgers stack only to have them put up a giant goose egg in the nightcap and unfortunately I did not have any Washington Nationals who I believe are still scoring runs on my beloved New York Mets as I type this Wednesday morning. Oh well, on to another MLB DFS slate!
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Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Early Slate Overview:
We get a nice five game early MLB DFS slate on Wednesday if we are looking to get some day time DFS action and at first glance this slate feels pretty straight forward which also likely means it becomes very chalky.
To me, it all starts with the New York Yankees offense, as they have a 6.27 Vegas total which is by far the highest mark on this slate which is understandable when you consider that Alex Cobb is facing them in Yankee Stadium. Cobb on the season is giving up a .210 ISO to left-handed batters and a .224 ISO to right-handed batters relying on a fastball in the low 90’s he throws over 55% of the time. This Yankees team from 2-7 looks like an all-in Early Only stack as each of these batters including Giancarlo Stanton, Didi Gregorious, Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres, Greg Bird and Miguel Andujar all have .180+ ISO and 35% or higher HC rates against RHP this season.
On short slates like this, if I am going to go the “chalk” route with a stack than I would recommend going all-in on a site like FantasyDraft and stacking up 6 batters which is the most they allow you to roster from one team. The ownership on guys like Stanton, Didi and Hicks batting 2-3-4 will be insanely high so building off that core and stacking Torres, Bird and Andujar with them, when most will not go with all 6 Yankees, is an interesting way to differentiate yourself from the herd.
I assume that Sonny Gray, much like Masahiro Tanaka on Tuesday will be the chalk pitcher to target as his price tag at only $16K is very reasonable when you consider he will take on an Orioles team that is now without both Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop. Gray just faced this Orioles team in Baltimore, going 6 shut-out innings with 8 K’s and 31 FPTS and is coming off back to back solid home starts against the Mets and Royals which is normally been Gray’s Achilles Heel this season. Gray is a -320 home favorite and the Orioles have a slate slow 2.7 run projection – this might be the kind of chalk you have to eat considering how weak the Baltimore line-up is right now.
Sal Romano is my favorite SP2 play on the slate as his price point at $10.3K against the Tigers allows you to basically get Gray and as many bats as you could possibly want. Romano faced this Tigers team once already, going 7 shut-out innings, striking out 6 batters on his way to 27 fantasy points. The Tigers projected line-up has a 24% K rate against RHP so there is some solid upside here for Romano who has actually been quite solid from a run prevention in his recent starts. The price point here does not require all that much to pay it off and when you factor in his first start against the Tigers, this looks like a great point per dollar spot that allows you the flexibility to pay up for as many big bats as you could possibly need.
MLB DFS: Main Slate Overview:
The six game Main Slate is about as underwhelming as the Early Slate although it certainly feels less chalky so there could be some interesting tournament approaches. My guess is that Rich Hill is the chalk SP1 against a Brewers team he just faced, striking out 9 while giving up only 1 ER so there is merit to actually taking bats against him here if you want leverage on the field. Hill has surrendered a .217 ISO to RHB this season and is going to take on a Milwaukee team that has added Jonathan Schoop to the middle of its order. I love the idea on this short slate of stacking the Brewers bats including Jesus Aguilar and Ryan Braun who both have .200+ ISO marks against LHP this season and you can pair them with the newly acquired Schoop for a right-handed mini-stack.
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If Hill is not the chalk pitcher than I would assume LHP Kyle Freeland is the next likely option but I think we can go to the other side of this game with the Cardinals RHP Luke Weaver like we have done the last two days against this K heavy Rockies team. We have seen the K upside in Colorado the last two days as Carlos Martinez (9 K) and Jack Flaherty (7 K) have both shown this is a match-up to exploit when we get the Rockies outside of Coors Field. Weaver has a 23% K rate versus RHB and has struck out between 5-7 batters in three of his last four starts so there is upside to be had here considering his $13K price tag.
One more time with feeling? The Dodgers have let me down the last two nights but it is so hard for me to ignore the Dodgers when they continue to be single digit owned each night as this is one of the most loaded line-ups in all of baseball. Chase Anderson just stiffled this team so game log watchers will likely not go here but Anderson is a reverse splits arms with a .214 ISO to RHB which means Manny Machado, Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp and the newly acquired Brian Dozier are all on the right side of the splits here.
My reccomendation is to play these slates lightly and do not be afraid to pivot off the chalk to get some leverage on the field.
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Best of luck today and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!