DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Thursday, August 2

Welcome into the Thursday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have nine games tonight so let’s dig right in!

Last night was pretty good to us for the most part. I did try to sneak in Freddie Freeman at a really low ownership since the Braves had so many concerns about the weather but that didn’t work out. I knew it was risky and a low owned Freeman could have been a big deal. The DFS MLB cash lineup went over 130 thanks to some big efforts from Ben Zobrist and Lorenzo Cain. We’ll look to keep the good times going tonight with the nine games in front of us.

DFS MLB – Reds at Nationals

Reds Probable Starter – Tyler Mahle, RHP 

4.53 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and 21.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .292 average, .414 wOBA, 23.0 K rate, 46.9 fly ball rate and 45.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .251 average, .287 wOBA, 20.5 K rate, 28.9 fly ball rate and 38.4 hard hit rate

We may not have to get too far into the article tonight to find one of the best stacking options on the board. There’s a pretty solid chance that Mahle has to deal with at least five lefties tonight and  they have owned him so far this year. The other poor part of the equation for Mahle is a fastball heavy pitcher and the Nationals hit that pitch really well too. The leader among regulars is Juan Soto with a .493 xwOBA and then he also brings a .236 ISO and a .396 wOBA against righties overall. The price has dipped back down under $4,000 which always makes you feel better. The other four main lefties of Adam Eaton, Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper and Matt Adams all crush righty fastballs with xwOBA’s of at least .403. This is a smash spot and as long as it’s one of the lefties that are main cogs in the lineup, they’re on the radar tonight.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Matt Adams

Secondary Options – Adam Eaton, Daniel Murphy, Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon

Nationals Probable Starter – Max Scherzer, RHP 

2.30 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 34.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .189 average, .260 wOBA, 32.7 K rate, 50.6 fly ball rate and 27.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .174 average, .241 wOBA, 36.2 K rate, 43.3 fly ball rate and 34.4 hard hit rate

This side of the game is just as easy as the other side to breakdown. You don’t play any Reds except Scooter Gennett as a deep tournament play, hoping he can take advantage of the fly balls Scherzer gives up. The only question is whether you want to pay up for him and that’s a legitimate question tonight. There’s a good deal of big names on the slate and we’ll see how they grade out as we go.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Scooter Gennett

Home Run Pick – Juan Soto and Daniel Murphy

DFS MLB – Marlins at Phillies

Marlins Probable Starter – Trevor Richards, RHP 

4.06 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 21.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .191 average, .263 wOBA, 23.6 K rate, 41.8 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .305 average, .372 wOBA, 20.2 K rate, 31.6 fly ball rate and 49.6 hard hit rate

I’m not sure if I’ll end up playing him but there’s some intrigue with Richards this evening. He’s shown some flash lately, collecting a quality start his last three times out while giving up a total of one run across 18.2 innings. He’s also been nasty against lefties and the Phillies typical lineup has four of their top five hitters on the left side of the plate. That split looks excellent for Richards, who is carrying a 3.21 FIP against the handedness. So there’s some regression coming but not a huge amount. The lone exception is Rhys Hoskins, who would be my favorite play from the Phillies offense. A $4,600 salary for Hoskins is no joke. Hoskins isn’t a joke against righty pitching with a .280 ISO, .385 wOBA and a .401 xwOBA against the four seamer, which Richards throws 60 percent of the time. I’d mostly steer clear of the Phillies tonight and might throw Richards as a risky GPP option.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite options – Rhys Hoskins

Secondary Options – None

Phillies Probable Starter – Nick Pivetta, RHP 

4,85 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 29.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .304 average, .366 wOBA, 26.2 K rate, 38.1 fly ball rate and 33.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .224 average, .294 wOBA, 31.5 K rate, 35.1 fly ball rate and 33.1 hard hit rate

You can make a pretty compelling case to use Pivetta tonight as well. He brings an elite strikeout upside as shown by his last start. He gave up five earned and still scored 39 points on FanDuel since he struck out 12 Reds. Lefty hitters have been his Achilles heel so far but the Marlins don’t have the lefties that really scare you. Sure, Justin Bour and his .216 ISO can jump up and tag a home run off of him. Maybe Derek Dietrich is a pain for Pivetta tonight with his .354 wOBA against righty pitching. Bour might be the best bet for a cheap home run since he does have a .401 xwOBA against the main two pitches for Pivetta to lefties. I wouldn’t say I’m crazy about either hitter and I have a felling I’m going to warm up to Pivetta through the day. I will say he’s more expensive than I was hoping at $8,300.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Justin Bour, Derek Dietrich

Home Run Pick – Rhys Hoskins

DFS MLB – Braves at Mets

Braves Probable Starter – Mike Foltynewicz, RHP 

3.04 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 28.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .186 average, .292 wOBA, 26.9 K rate, 39.9 fly ball rate and 33.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH -.227 average, .277 wOBA, 30.0 K rate, 33.1 fly ball rate and 34.3 hard hit rate

I’ll admit I don’t know where I should go with this side of the game. On the one hand, Foltynewicz’s stats and metrics would suggest that he could be in line for a big start. There’s no Yoenis Cespedes or Asdrubal Cabrera in this lineup anymore. Tommy Milone and Tanner Roark both just had very solid starts against this team. The flip side is Foltynewicz has had a very poor stretch in his last four starts. He’s given up either four or five runs in each of them and doesn’t have a quality start under his belt since the start of June. I would normally head towards Brandon Nimmo or Michael Conforto but Folty has been tough on lefty hitters. Both of those players strike out over 21 percent of the time against righties as well. I just can’t find a Mets hitter I really want to play, regardless of whether I wind up playing Foltynewicz..

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Jose Bautista

Mets Probable Starter – Jason Vargas, LHP 

8.36 ERA, 1.79 WHIP and 17.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .304 average, .409 wOBA, 14.8 K rate, 42.1 fly ball rate and 36.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .331 average, .420 wOBA, 18.6 K rate, 41.2 fly ball rate and 37.7 hard hit rate

If there’s any way I can fit in four Braves and four Nationals tonight, I might give that a run in tournaments. Vargas is the gift that keeps on giving and the Braves are lethal against lefties this year, ranking in the top seven in baseball in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. The good news is the Braves have good lefty on lefty hitters so basically anyone of their main hitters is a great option. Either catcher has an ISO over .220 so whether Tyler Flowers or Kurt Suzuki starts, you’re good to go. Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis both hit lefties well with a .373 wOBA at the minimum while the highest ISO on the team belongs to Johan Camargo. I’ve been playing him over Ozzie Albies lately because he has the higher wOBA and ISO and is typically about $1,000 cheaper and  is always lower owned. It’s hard to tell you you’re wrong to play Albies though. The outfield options of Ronald Acuna and the newly acquired Adam Duvall are excellent options as well.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Freddie Freeman, Johan Camargo, Tyler Flowers/Kurt Suzuki, Ronald Acuna

Secondary Options -Ozzie Albies, Adam Duvall

Home Run Pick – Adam Duvall

DFS MLB – Yankees at Red Sox

Yankees Probable Starter – CC Sabathia, LHP 

3.53 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 18.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .183 average, .309 wOBA, 23.0 K rate, 31.4 fly ball rate and 17.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .266 average, .323 wOBA, 17.8 K rate, 35.7 fly ball rate and 31.4 hard hit rate

There’s not a ton of meat on the bone to sink our teeth into with Sabathia stats-wise. He just hasn’t gotten crushed that often this season so I don’t think a full stack is the route to go here. I’d be focusing my energy on three or four hitters if you really want to go nuts with Sox tonight. For some reason, Mookie Betts is just $4,500 which is fairly low for him. He’s faced Sabathia 33 times and has a reasonable .325 xwOBA against him. That’s not special but his numbers against lefties in general are. The OPS is 1.189, the ISO is a ridiculous .400 and his wOBA is .478. I might take my chances at a slight discount with Betts tonight. You could also go with lefty killers Steve Pearce or J.D. Martinez and Pearce is especially attractive at just $3,000. Ian Kinsler catches my eye as well with a career mark of .388 xwOBA against Sabathia and two homers. I’m not playing Sabathia but I wouldn’t be surprised if he was serviceable tonight.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mookie Betts, Steve Pearce

Secondary Options – Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez

Red Sox Probable Starter – Brian Johnson, LHP 

3.45 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 20.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .210 average, .257 wOBA, 20.3 K rate, 40.4 fly ball rate and 31.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .290 average, .335 wOBA, 20.1 K rate, 38.7 fly ball rate and 31.9 hard hit rate

The cash game lock of this slate offensively is Giancarlo Stanton, no matter what other numbers we run across the rest of the way. Not only does he have a .537 xwOBA against the two main pitches to righties from Johnson, Stanton absolutely destroys lefty pitching to the tune of 1.166 OPS, .381 ISO and a .475 wOBA. This numbers are crazy right? They’re even better away from Yankee Stadium. Those three metrics spike up to 1.499 OPS, .442 ISO and a .608 wOBA. Perhaps it’s getting away from the pressures of playing at home but whatever the reason, Stanton is a must have this evening. There’s also two other hitters with ISO’s over .300 and that’s Gleyber Torres and Aaron Hicks. Hicks also rates especially well via xwOBA with a .481 mark. FanDuel did us no favors since their salary is approaching $4,000 but they would be a very attractive three man stack if you wanted it.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Aaron Hicks

Secondary Options – Miguel Andujar

Home Run Pick – Giancarlo Stanton and Steve Pearce

DFS MLB – Orioles at Rangers

Orioles Probable Starter – Andrew Cashner, RHP 

4.33 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 17.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .270 average, .356 wOBA, 20.3 K rate, 38.7 fly ball rate and 33.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .282 average, .349 wOBA, 14.4 K rate, 31.1 fly ball rate and 30.2 hard hit rate

Shin-soo Choo has been fairly quiet lately other than his two homer outburst against the Diamondbacks a couple nights ago. It’s going to be fairly difficult to pass on him at just $2,900 when he smashes the two pitch combo of four seamers and sinkers that Cashner throws 61 percent of the time. He has a .534 xwOBA against those pitches which meshes nicely with his .247 ISO and .403 wOBA on the season against righty pitching.The cherry on top is Choo’s .691 xwOBA against Cashner in six career at-bats against Cashner. He really helps afford a lot of different things.

Rougned Odor has been positively mashing the ball and even though it’s not the most comfortable salary at $3,500, he rates well tonight. He’s dragged his ISO over .200 and he smacks the pitches for Cashner with a .434 xwOBA. Cashner is a super weird pitcher because he looks like he’s getting blasted by a lot of metrics. If you scroll through the game logs, he’s given up three or fewer earned runs in 15 of his 21 starts. That’s not something that makes me super excited to stack Rangers to be left cursing Cashner at the end of the night.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Shin-soo Choo, Rougned Odor

Secondary Options – Elvis Andrus, Jurickson Profar, Robinson Chirinos

Rangers Probable Starter – Yovani Gallardo, RHP 

6.26 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 14.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .241 average, .344 wOBA, 15.5 K rate, 32.4 fly ball rate and 35.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .304 average, .357 wOBA, 12.8 K rate, 29.4 fly ball rate and 33.8 hard hit rate

I’m kind of just laughing at this side of the game because not much is making sense to me. Gallardo looks completely terrible by all the splits but he’s gone for 30+ points in consecutive games against the Indians and the Astros. Needless to say, those offenses are way better on paper than what is left of the Baltimore offense. Gone are Jonathan Schoop and Manny Machado, leaving behind…Mark Trumbo as the best consistent hitter? Maybe Adam Jones? The issue with not paying Baltimore any mind is they’ve been battering the ball since Machado got dealt. I would probably just stick with those two hitters because they’re the only two regular players with a wOBA over .300. At some point, those numbers are going to take back over and the Baltimore offense is going to stop scoring.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo

Home Run Pick – Shin-soo Choo

DFS MLB – Padres at Cubs

Padres Probable Starter – Robbie Erlin, LHP 

3.47 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 22.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .264 average, .325 wOBA, 22.7 K rate, 26.4 fly ball rate and 45.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .222 average, .258 wOBA, 21.7 K rate, 31.6 fly ball rate and 23.3 hard hit rate

It would be a surprise if Erlin went much past about three innings tonight unless we get word about anything different. Even if he won’t go the length of a traditional starter, you have to love Javier Baez and Willson Contreras. They’re almost identical with a .389 and .390 xwOBA against the four pitch mix for Erlin. Four pitches is a bit more than we normally focus on but Erlin throws his mix pretty equally. Baez is the better player via wOBA and ISO but he’s also $1,200 more expensive. It really depends on your budget as far as which one is the more attractive player. Contreras did just drop 40+ points last night against the Buccos, while Baez put up 20+. The catch here is Erlin has been reverse splits. I would still trust these two righties in Wrigley more than Erlin  and there’s no Cubbies lefty that makes me super excited to play.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Willson Contreras, Javier Baez

Secondary Options – Albert Almora, David Bote(if active)

Cubs Probable Starter – Mike Montgomery, LHP 

4.03 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 14.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .243 average, .293 wOBA, 18.4 K rate, 22.5 fly ball rate and 30.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .271 average, .314 wOBA, 12.8 K rate, 29.3 fly ball rate and 32.0 hard hit rate

Where you want to go with the Padres righties depends on how much risk you want to take. Christian Villanueva is one of the best lefty killers in baseball…when he makes contact. He and Wil Myers whiff at a 34 percent clip against lefty pitching but Villanueva has a .417 ISO and Myers has a .316 mark. Montgomery has a very low strikeout rate against righty hitters and that leans me towards the safest cash play on the board from this team, Hunter Renfroe. He only strikes out 23.5 percent fo the time and the ISO is still great at .250, though it is the lowest of the three hitters. Renfroe and Villanueva are dirt cheap and are great salary savers. Renfroe is close to a lock and a three man stack could really pay off. Padres hitters tend to be lower owned than they should be.

Padres Hitters to target 

Elite Options – Hunter Renfroe

Secondary Options – Christian Villanueva, Wil Myers

Home Run Pick – Hunter Renfroe and Javier Baez

DFS MLB – Brewers at Dodgers

Brewers Probable Starter – Jhoulys Chacin, RHP 

3.45 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 19.3 strikeout rate

vs LHH – .261 average, .333 wOBA, 14.3 K rate, 32.8 fly ball rate and 38.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .177 average, .241 wOBA, 24.5 K rate, 36.7 fly ball rate and 36.2 hard hit rate

The Dodgers have been relatively quiet the past week or so and Chacin is going to be more of a challenge than some might think. Over the course of 155 at-bats against the active hitters in the Dodgers lineup, they have accumulated a .287 xwOBA against Chacin. I’m not going to tangle with Dodgers righties tonight but might take a chance with their lefties. Instead of trying to find a one-off, I would probably stack them with the top three options being Max Muncy, Joc Pederson and Cody Bellinger. They all have ISO’s over .200 and since they’ve been a little cold, the prices are right on all of them. If you want to get nuts, throw in Yasmani Grandal. He hits righties pretty well with a .262 ISO and a .382 wOBA. He did homer last night so he’s a little less likely to go yard tonight. This lineup is way too talented to stay quiet for long. They’re due for an explosion and they’ve been under owned as is.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Three or four man stack

Secondary Options – None

Dodgers Probable Starter – Clayton Kershaw, LHP 

2.52 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 25.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .282 average, .331 wOBA, 23.8 K rate, 32.2 fly ball rate and 42.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .213 average, .263 wOBA, 25.7 K rate, 27.2 fly ball rate and 30.0 hard hit rate

Kershaw has rattled off five straight quality starts and we could see him rounding into his normal form. I’m not about to use hitters against him with the possible exception of Lorenzo Cain. He’s still too cheap, even against Kershaw. I wouldn’t go there in cash and the fact that Kershaw is still under $11,000 really makes me think he might be one of the better options for pitching on the board.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Lorenzo Cain, Jesus Aguilar

Home Run Pick – Cody Bellinger

PHOENIX, AZ – OCTOBER 09: Starting pitcher Zack Greinke #21 of the Arizona Diamondbacks walks off the field after he was removed from the game during the sixth inning of the National League Divisional Series game three against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chase Field on October 9, 2017 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

DFS MLB – Giants at Diamondbacks

Giants Probable Starter – Madison Bumgarner, LHP 

3.06 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 19.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .158 average, .234 wOBA, 27.9 K rate, 28.0 fly ball rate and 26.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .225 average, .291 wOBA, 18.1 K rate, 34.8 fly ball rate and 36.9 hard hit rate

Some players tonight might be off of Paul Goldschmidt tonight since Bumgarner still carries the ace reputation. I’m here to tell you that you shouldn’t rule him out right off the bat. MadBum has been significantly worse on the road so far this year with an ERA over 5.00 and he’s giving up a .386 wOBA to righties on the road. Goldy has 71 plate appearances against Bumgarner and has racked up five doubles, three homers, a .344 average and a .557 xwOBA. I’m not advocating to play him in cash but he’s an elite tournament play. You could also consider A.J. Pollock and maybe Ketel Marte as options as well. Pollock has the highest ISO on the team at .342 and Marte is no slouch at .258. Bumgarner hasn’t been quite as good as his name would make you think and the D-Backs could pay off handsomely if his road splits show up.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Paul Goldschmidt

Secondary Options – A.J. Pollock, Ketel Marte, Steven Souza

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Zack Greinke, RHP 

2.96 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 26.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .231 average, .275 wOBA, 24.3 K rate, 28.5 fly ball rate and 38.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .231 average, .291 wOBA, 27.5 K rate, 38.6 fly ball rate and 44.3 hard hit rate

If you don’t feel comfortable throwing Kershaw, I think we’ve found the pivot for you at just $300 more. With Brandon Belt on the disabled list, this Giants lineup isn’t the most intimidating one out there. The leader in ISO and wOBA on the team right now that is an active and everyday player is Andrew McCutchen at .147 and .331. That’s not ideal for an offense and Greinke is having another really good season. He has a positive track record against the Giants lineup and he’s rocking a 2.39 ERA at home. He might be a little safer in cash than Kershaw is and I’ll have no Giants hitters tonight.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Andrew McCutchen

Home Run Pick – Paul Goldschmidt

DFS MLB – Blue Jays at Mariners

Blue Jays Probable Starter – TBD 

We don’t know yet who is going to start for the Jays so we’ll have to wait and see who the best options are going to be tonight. There’s a couple of general rules here to keep in mind. If we get a lefty, Nelson Cruz becomes a great option. He smashes lefties at home and has for a while now. Dee Gordon becomes a nice play against a righty at $2,800 because he can steal one or two bases every game. For some reason, Robinson Cano is more expensive than Gordon. That doesn’t add up. He’s not having his typical season but that price is still a little low. Denard Span has been hitting third lately and the price hasn’t reflected that because he’s still $2,700. I’ll try to update it with the pitching info on Twitter during the day.

Mariners Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Nelson Cruz if it’s a lefty starter

Secondary Options – TBD

Mariners Probable Starter – Felix Hernandez, RHP

5.58 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 19.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .249 average, .350 wOBA, 21.0 K rate, 40.4 fly ball rate and 38.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .277 average, .339 wOBA, 17.4 K rate,  29.6 fly ball rate and 40.5 hard hit rate

Things have been going very poorly for Hernandez lately, to the point of there being discussions about taking him out of the rotation. Frankly, any pitcher that had these metrics wouldn’t be in a rotation and it’s more of a favor to the grizzled veteran. The Blue Jays are in a good spot tonight against him there’s four hitters with an xwOBA of .385 against the main two pitches for Hernandez. Surprisingly, Aledmys Diaz leads the pack at .453 and carries some appeal as a punt shortstop. The next three are Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales and Randal Grichuk and all three of this ehitters have ISO’s over .200 and wOBA’s over .340. Any offense could blow up against King Felix at this point and the Jays could be a great hammer at the end of the night.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Stack three or four hitters in GPP

Secondary Options – Aledmys Diaz

Home Run Pick – Randal Grichuk

DFS MLB – Sample FanDuel Lineup

P – Clayton Kershaw 

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C/1B – Tyler Flowers 

2B – Daniel Murphy

3B – Johan Camargo 

SS – Aledmys Diaz 

OF – Giancarlo Stanton, Shin-soo Choo, Hunter Renfroe

Utility – Adam Eaton 

I’m willing to pitch Kershaw tonight seeing as how the results have been there for him lately. He did just face this Brewers squad recently but that was on the road. Spending on Kershaw and Stanton still leaves us with plenty of money to spend. We’ll take two of the Nationals lefties and two Braves hitters in some juicy matchups. Diaz isn’t a very good hitter but he’s about as low as we can go at shortstop and still have some potential. Choo and Renfroe are two of the best plays on the board given their salary and they help make the lineup come together pretty nicely.

The Core – Giancarlo Stanton, Hunter Renfroe, Shin-soo Choo

Pitchers to Consider 

High End – Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke

Mid-Range – Mike Foltynewicz, Nick Pivetta

Punts – Trevor Richards

Stacks to Consider – New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves, Washington Nationals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Toronto Blue Jays

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.