DraftKings Main MLB Picks August 2: Which ace to pay for?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Main MLB Picks August 2: Which ace to pay for?
We have a pretty big main DraftKings slate for Thursday with nine games going on. We have plenty of aces out there, but the middle tier tapers off in a hurry. Where can we find a bargain? Where are the stacks without a Coors game? Let’s check it out!
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Rain is likely in Philadelphia, but I am expecting more of an in game delay than anything else. Same goes for Washington. Any rain may make for a late start, but it will clear up enough to play the game at some point. Expect a late start in New York as well, but the game will play after the initial delay.
We have some winds blowing out tonight, so keep an eye on that. There is a 14 mph wind blowing out to dead center in Fenway. the same wind is blowing out to left center in New York and D.C.
We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on!
For you first time players, if you would like $20 in free DraftKings dollars, use this link for the referral bonus with your first deposit of $5 or more! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn those DraftKings dollars into more!
Top Tier:
Max Scherzer ($13,000): Scherzer’s subpar start against the Marlins has him more affordable than usual. The Reds are only hitting .222 against Scherzer with two homers and six runs in 63 at bats. None of those numbers jump out at us as a must-play, but the 26 strikeouts is a massive total. Scherzer racked up 33.9 DraftKings points on the Reds earlier this year. Expecting another outing like that is not off base. This is one occasion where Scherzer is worth it if you want to pay up for him.
Clayton Kershaw ($11,600): Kershaw put together his best outing since April in his last start. Kershaw’s 17.3 against Milwaukee after the break wasn’t a great outing, but it was in Milwaukee. Is Kershaw back? For this much of a discount over Scherzer, it may be worth it to find out. There is a lot of potential here even though the Brewers’ offense is better than it was three weeks ago.
Zack Greinke ($11,200): The more I look at this matchup, the more I like it. First off, this is a watered down version of the Giants with Belt out. Second, Greinke has a 2.39 ERA in 11 home starts, and picked up a solid 19.4 DraftKings points on the Giants earlier this year. The Giants are hitting just .225 against Greinke in 240 at bats with only six homers, but 22 runs. The 48 strikeouts aren’t a huge number, but Greinke is 9-1 in his last 11 starts. Good luck, San Francisco.
Mike Foltynewicz ($10,500): It’s kinda hard to pay this premium on Folty when he hasn’t broken the 20 DraftKings points mark in over a month. However, he’s pitching against the Mets. Folty racked up 21.5 DraftKings points on the Mets earlier this year, and you can rightly make the argument that the Mets offense was more dangerous then. There is enough potential for a huge game here that many will forego Max for Mike. The strikeout potential and weak opponent make it very tantalizing.
Middle Tier:
Nick Pivetta ($8,500): I’m going to get right to the point. I hate the price on Pivetta. It is really only this high because his ERA is a run and a half lower at home (and it’s still 4.26) and because he racked up 32.4 DraftKings points on the Marlins earlier this year. However, Pivetta’s career numbers against Miami still aren’t very good. I’ll let someone else chase this. Pivetta lacks the consistency I want when paying that much for a pitcher. However, he does have 80 strikeouts in 61.1 home innings this year. The strikeout potential and Pivetta’s first game against the Marlins are worth mentioning.
Mike Montgomery ($7,000): Montgomery has been struggling lately, especially at Wrigley, but the Padres could cure that. That said, this is a team with a ton of right handed power. If Montgomery has trouble missing bats like he has lately, this could get ugly. There is potential here due to the astronomical strikeout numbers put up by some of the Padres. However, you have to incur quite a bit of risk to try and exploit this.
Bargain Pitchers:
Yovani Gallardo ($6,200): Don’t laugh! Gallado is playing the Orioles here. You know, the team where you may even consider playing Jason Vargas against them. Lesser pitchers than Gallardo have dominated Baltimore lately. Gallardo has quietly put up a 3.93 ERA in three home starts. He also has 37.7 DraftKings points over the last two starts, and those were against Houston and Cleveland. Not laughing anymore, are you? That’s right…..there is a lot of upside for Gallardo here.
Andrew Cashner ($5,100): Cashner is riding a streak of five straight stars with double digit DraftKings points. Judging by how the Rangers offense is going right now, Cashner has a great chance at making it six. He isn’t going to wow anyone, but if you can pick up 15 DraftKings points for this price, you are ahead of the curve. Cashner has a respectable 3.72 ERA in nine road starts this year. The Rangers also only have one run against him in 17 at bats for whatever that’s worth.
Washington Nationals vs. Tyler Mahle:
Mahle has never faced the Nationals before. Boy, is he in for a rude awakening. This team bombarded the Mets a couple of nights ago, and the five they picked up yesterday are pretty much average for this team. Mahle comes in with a 4.53 ERA. It’s not going to improve here. Soto and Harper are the elite picks, but don’t sleep on Daniel Murphy, Trea Turner, or Anthony Rendon. Any or all of them are worth a place in your lineups.
Boston Red Sox vs. CC Sabathia:
Sabathia has a 4.84 ERA in 18 career starts at Fenway Park, and that includes some games when he was in his prime. I’m not saying CC is going to get shelled here, but it is a possibility. The Sox hit lefties well in Fenway, and the wind is blowing out. This has the makings of a high scoring game. Steve Pearce and Kinsler have both homered twice off of Sabathia. Sandy Leon and Xander have taken him deep as well. Mookie is 12-28(.429), but has yet to homer off of CC. I think he changes that tonight.
New York Yankees vs. Brian Johnson:
The same thing holds true for Johnson. This is hitting weather in Fenway. Stanton, Andujar, and Aaron Hicks are good targets from the right side. However, Gleyber Torres is a must play for me. He homered twice yesterday, and is a strong bet to do so once again. Luke Voit could be a really good punt option if he gets the start with a lefty on the mound. If not, Gardner batting leadoff is never a bad idea.
Atlanta Braves vs. Jason Vargas:
This is the baseball equivalent of tanking when the Mets keep rolling a guy out there with a 8.36 ERA on the season. Vargas could end up with the worst ERA in modern history, and the Braves are going to help his cause. Markakis has homered twice off of Vargas so far. Acuna and Flowers have taken him deep as well. Freeman, Albies, and new Brave Adam Duvall all look like really good plays tonight.
Chicago Cubs vs. Robbie Erlin:
We don’t know how long Erlin will be in there since he has pitched in relief for most of the year. However, Erlin’s two starts were awful. He allowed six runs in 9.2 innings. The Cubs have plenty of power to take advantage of a lefty in Wrigley. Baez is easily the best option, but you can’t rule out Willson Contreras, Albert Almora, Ben Zobrist, or Addison Russell. If you really want to use Rizzo, don’t be shy. Erlin wont be in there long enough to put him at too much of a disadvantage.
Top Tier:
Trevor Richards has been decent against the Phillies in two starts this year, but not enough that I want to stack against him or pay his price. Hoskins is 3-4 against him, so he is a good one off play. Odubel Herrera and Nick Williams are solid plays as well, just don’t expect a poor game from Richards.
Luis Santos will open the game for the Blue Jays. That muddles things as far as how to attack them. The only thing I know is the Nelson Cruz is crushing everything at home. You can use Cruz against anyone. Dee Gordon looks like a strong option as well.
MadBum’s numbers against Arizona aren’t all that good. His numbers on the road this season are awful by his standards. MadBum has a 5.06 ERA on the road, and he has been hammered by Paul Goldschmidt. Goldy is 21-61(.344) with three homers and ten RBI off of Bumgarner. A.J. Pollock has also homered three times off of MadBum. I’m going to stop short of a full stack, but I have no reservations about using Goldy and Pollock here.
I don’t really trust anyone in the Rangers offense right now, but Odor and Choo look very good with the platoon advantage against the powder keg that is Andrew Cashner.
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Middle Tier:
I’m on the fence with Pivetta, but I’m not with Derek Dietrich or Realmuto. Justin Bour is a reasonably priced power hitter in a hitter’s park as well.
Joey Votto at $3,900 looks like a bargain. He is 4-13(.308) with a homer and three RBI against Max Scherzer. New Red Preston Tucker has homered off of Scherzer before, but it is only hit in five at bats against him. Billy Hamilton is a nice bargain tonight. He is 3-7 with two steals against Scherzer.
If I trusted the Orioles at all, I would consider a stack. Now even one-offs make me nervous. Tim Beckham and Danny Valencia have homered off of Gallardo in the past, but Beckham is the only one I would really consider.
The Dodgers are cold, but all that is doing is knocking their prices down. Chacin has not pitched well against the Dodgers in the past, so there is potential for the Dodgers once again. Matt Kemp has three homers and nine RBI against Chacin. Grandal, Chris Taylor, Bellinger, and Joc Pederson have also homered against Chacin in the past. Machado and Muncy are worth looks as well if you want to put together a stack here.
Hunter Renfroe, Wil Myers, and Christian Villanueva are potentially elite options in a hitter’s park with a lefty on the hill. It’s going to be all or nothing for the Padres, but the more I think about it, the more I realize that I want at least some exposure here.
Ryan Braun is 11-35(.314) with a homer and six RBI against Clayton Kershaw. If you are hell bent on using a Brewer, it should be Braun.
King Felix has been awful lately anywhere he has taken the mound. Even though it’s the Blue Jays taking to him tonight, I’m inclined to take a shot with Toronto bats. First off, they’re cheap. You are either attacking the slumping Toronto offense or King Felix. I don’t see just ignoring this one. I’m taking Granderson , who has homered twice off of Felix. Morales and Yangervis Solarte look solid as well.
Bargain Shoppers:
The Giants offense is cold right now, but Brandon Crawford, Longoria, and Joe Panik have all homered against Greinke in the past. However, McCutchen is the only Giant I would touch here against a blistering hot Grienke.
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