Nebraska season preview: Best and worst-case scenario

As the Scott Frost coaching era begins, here’s a look at how the 2018 season could take shape for the Nebraska Cornhuskers.

By all accounts, the 2017 season will go down as the low point for Nebraska Cornhuskers football as a 4-8 season brought a merciful end to Mike Riley’s tenure as head coach. Native son and former national title-winning Cornhuskers’ quarterback Scott Frost is coming back to Lincoln after an undefeated season as coach at UCF, and he carries with him hope of a return to the glory days.

Tanner Lee came in as a graduate transfer last year, and mostly delivered with 3,143 passing yards (second in the Big Ten), 23 touchdowns, 16 interceptions and a 129.4 passer rating (fifth in the Big Ten). But he is headed to the NFL now, as a sixth-round pick of the Jacksonville Jaguars in April. True freshman Adrian Martinez and redshirt freshman Tristan Gebbia are leading the competition to replace Lee heading into fall camp, with sophomore walk-on Andrew Bunch also in the mix. Whoever wins the job, assuming one guy does, will be tasked with running the fast-paced spread offense Frost is bringing with him.

There will be ample talent around whoever Nebraska’s quarterback is. JUCO transfer running back Greg Bell should help improve a rushing attack that was 120th in the country last year (107.5 yards per game), and the offensive line returns eight players who started at least one game in 2017.

The Cornhuskers may also have the top wide receiver duo in the Big Ten. Senior Stanley Morgan Jr. (61 catches for 986 yards and 10 touchdowns last year) is an underrated NFL prospect, and sophomore J.D. Spielman (55 receptions last season) may reach his full potential in the more prolific offense Frost is bringing in.

Nebraska returns seven starters from last year’s defense, which probably isn’t a good thing. Last year’s unit was nothing close to the “Blackshirts” from the past in Lincoln, finishing 102nd in the country in total defense (436.2 yards per game), 115th in rush defense (214.8 yards per game) and 117th in scoring defense (36.4 points per game). New coordinator Erik Chinander is bringing a more aggressive scheme in, but a lack of depth in the secondary may get exposed quickly.

Here’s a look at the best and worst-case scenarios for the Cornhuskers in Frost’s first year as coach.

2018 Schedule-Best Case Scenario

Sept. 1: vs. Akron-W
Sept. 8: vs. Colorado-W
Sept. 15: vs. Troy-W
Sept. 22: at Michigan-L
Sept 29: vs. Purdue-W
Oct. 6: at Wisconsin-L
Oct. 13: at Northwestern-W
Oct. 20: vs. Minnesota-W
Nov. 3: at Ohio State-L
Nov. 10: vs. Illinois-W
Nov. 17: vs. Michigan State-L
Nov. 23: at Iowa-W
Best Case Scenario Record: 8-4

2018 Schedule-Worst Case Scenario

Sept. 1: vs. Akron-W
Sept. 8: vs. Colorado-L
Sept. 15: vs. Troy-L
Sept. 22: at Michigan-L
Sept 29: vs. Purdue-W
Oct. 6: at Wisconsin-L
Oct. 13: at Northwestern-L
Oct. 20: vs. Minnesota-W
Nov. 3: at Ohio State-L
Nov. 10: vs. Illinois-W
Nov. 17: vs. Michigan State-L
Nov. 23: at Iowa-L
Worst Case Scenario Record: 4-8

Starting with the three home games, including two against non-Power 5 schools, should help the Frost era get off the ground. But Troy is 21-5 over the last seasons, including a road upset of LSU last year, and quite frankly a win for the Cornhuskers would be regarded as the upset.

Eight wins would qualify as a very bright best-case scenario, with a 3-0 start, the expected road losses to Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio State and a loss at home to Michigan State. The worst-case scenario is a match of last year’s 4-8 mark, with the only wins coming in games the Cornhuskers are likely to be favored in.

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An exact split of the difference between the best and worst-case scenarios, a 6-6 record with a promising win or two to edge into bowl eligibility, is possible for the Cornhuskers in Frost’s first year. Anything more than that is asking too much.