DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Friday, August 3

Welcome into the Friday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have an enormous 14 game slate ing front of us so let’s move!

Last night was one of the crazier nights I can remember. It was the lowest I’ve ever finished with a 152 and I saw lineups in the 230’s that didn’t cash in tournaments. There’s not much you can do on nights like that but shake you head and laugh. They looked like NBA scores last night and we’re onto tonight to try and crack the code that is MLB DFS.

DFS MLB – Reds at Nationals

Reds Probable Starter – Anthony DeSclafani, RHP 

5.47 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 21.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .257 average, .410 wOBA, 18.0 K rate, 44.3 fly ball rate and 48.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .264 average, .307 wOBA, 24.6 K rate, 34.2 fly ball rate and 48.7 hard hit rate

You’re going to want to go right back to the well tonight with some Nationals lefties. DeSclafani has always had issues with the handedness and is up to a 3.86 HR/9 to southpaw hitters. I have no issue rolling out a three or four man stack here among Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Daniel Murphy and Adam Eaton. All of these hitters have a wOBA over .345 this year and they all rate well against the four seam/slider combo as Eaton is the lowest hitter at a .359 xwOBA. The next lowest is Harper at .385 and there’s just not a lot of optimism for DeSclafani. The Nats offense has been a little warm lately and they could be in for another big night against a pitcher that has a major weakness against their strength.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Daniel Murphy, Adam Eaton

Secondary Options – Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon

Nationals Probable Starter – Gio Gonzalez, LHP 

3.78 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 20.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .195 average, .233 wOBA, 30.4 K rate, 31.0 fly ball rate and 24.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .261 average, .335 wOBA, 18.5 K rate, 30.0 fly ball rate and 31.7 hard hit rate

Gonzalez has been pitching a little better lately but that’s more of a reflection of how he had been pitching than an endorsement of playing him tonight. I’m not sure if I’d go terribly heavy on the Reds but you jus have to consider Eugenio Suarez. Since Gonzalez is capable of pitching well, you can argue that Suarez is more of a GPP play but he just wrecks lefty pitching. He walks almost as much as he strikes out and then he carries a 1.205 OPS, .337 ISO and a .498 wOBA. If Curt Casali is in the lineup, I would consider him as a punt option at the catcher position. His ISO is really close to Suarez at .333 and the wOBA is .432. It’s also fair to note that those numbers have come in just 19 plate appearances. That’s not the best track record but the numbers are hard to ignore nonetheless. Gonzalez would be a GPP option though the ceiling might not be as high as you want.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eugenio Suarez

Secondary Options – Curt Casali

Home Run Pick – Juan Soto and Eugenio Suarez

DFS MLB – Marlins at Phillies

Marlins Probable Starter – Trevor Richards, RHP 

4.06 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 21.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .191 average, .263 wOBA, 23.6 K rate, 41.8 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .305 average, .372 wOBA, 20.2 K rate, 31.6 fly ball rate and 49.6 hard hit rate

I’m not sure if I’ll end up playing him but there’s some intrigue with Richards this evening. He’s shown some flash lately, collecting a quality start his last three times out while giving up a total of one run across 18.2 innings. He’s also been nasty against lefties and the Phillies typical lineup has four of their top five hitters on the left side of the plate. That split looks excellent for Richards, who is carrying a 3.21 FIP against the handedness. So there’s some regression coming but not a huge amount. The lone exception is Rhys Hoskins, who would be my favorite play from the Phillies offense. A $4,600 salary for Hoskins is no joke. Hoskins isn’t a joke against righty pitching with a .280 ISO, .385 wOBA and a .401 xwOBA against the four seamer, which Richards throws 60 percent of the time. I’d mostly steer clear of the Phillies tonight and might throw Richards as a risky GPP option.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite options – Rhys Hoskins

Secondary Options – None

Philadelphia Probable Starter – Vince Velasquez, RHP 

4.02 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 27.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .234 average, .330 wOBA, 25.3 K rate, 44.0 fly ball rate and 32.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .216 average, .278 wOBA, 28.9 K rate, 40.0 fly ball rate and 30.9 hard hit rate

I want to love Velasquez tonight but the home road splits catch my eye, and not in a good way. He’s got an ERA over 5.00 and is giving up a .349 wOBA. Now, the thing to remember here is those numbers do include his worst start of the season against the Brewers. He got crushed for 10 earned in 3.2 innings pitched. The good end of things for Velasquez is the Marlins don’t have many lefties to take advantage of the splits. Justin Bour homered yesterday and he is the main threat, having a .216 ISO and a .348 wOBA. Velasquez is basically in the same boat as teammate Nick Pivetta was yesterday. The matchup isn’t perfect but the strikeout upside is so high that he might be worth a look in GPP’s.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Justin Bour

Secondary Options – Derek Dietrich

Home Run Pick – Justin Bour

DFS MLB – Cardinals at Pirates

Cardinals Probable Starter – John Gant, RHP 

3.49 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 19.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .216 average, .303 wOBA, 17.3 K rate, 38.4 fly ball rate and 59.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .174 average, .243 wOBA, 22.8 K rate, 33.8 fly ball rate and 29.2 hard hit rate

Want hasn’t pitched poorly so far but he’s not someone I’m looking to use tonight. He’s been worse against lefties to start with but his 5.41 FIP to southpaws would suggest that he should be a lot worse. Gregory Polanco checks all the boxes for me from his xwOBA against the four seam/changeup combo that Cant throws often(.409) to his ISO and wOBA, which is .275 and .371. The ISO leads the Buccos against righty pitching and he’s only $3,600. On the bargain end of things, both Adam Frazier and Colin Moran are fairly interesting. Neither one is crazy good from the ISO or wOBA perspective but Moran carries a .428 xwOBA and is only $2,200. They should both be hitting high in the order for one more game until Corey Dickerson returns Saturday. I’m not really sure I’m messing with the righties tonight on a slate this large.

Pirates Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Gregory Polanco

Secondary Options – Colin Moran, Adam Frazier

Pirates Probable Starter – Chris Archer, RHP 

4.31 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 24.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .281 average, .348 wOBA, 21.6 K rate, 31.4 fly ball rate and 40.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .262 average, .312 wOBA, 27.0 K rate, 31.8 fly ball rate and 40.3 hard hit rate

As a Pirates fan, I’m playing Archer tonight in at least one lineup. I think the switch to the National League and a team that has an outside shot at the playoffs will re-energize Archer and we’ll see a little closer to his old form when he was one of the better pitchers in the league. The biggest threat for Archer tonight is going to be Matt Carpenter, who does look like a pretty solid challenge. Archer is basically a two pitch pitcher that throws a fastball and slider. Carpenter has an xwOBA of .465 against those pitches and then also has a .284 ISO and .395 wOBA. I really like the fact that the Cards are going to be a righty heavy lineup and could be without Marcell Ozuna. Yadier Molina and Tyler O’Neill are the only other hitters with ISO’s over .200 and it could be a pretty solid night for Archer in his Bucco debut.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Options –  Tyler O’Neill, Yadier Molina

Home Run Pick – Gregory Polanco

DFS MLB – Braves at Mets

Braves Probable Starter – Anibal Sanchez, RHP 

3.00 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 23.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .209 average, .287 wOBA, 25.0 K rate, 36.4 fly ball rate and 30.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .213 average, .290 wOBA, 21.9 K rate, 43.6 fly ball rate and 27.0 hard hit rate

I don’t know if he has the ceiling that I would want in tournaments, but it’s hard to make a strong case for the Mets offense tonight. Brandon Nimmo hit a home run last night and maybe that gets him back on the right track. Sanchez has also been slightly tougher on lefties, though it’s really close as far as the splits go. I have a hard time dropping $3,400 on Michael Conforto and that doesn’t leave many other options. Todd Frazier and Jose Bautista are cheap ad they both have an ISO over .175 and a wOBA over .320. This just ins’t a spot I really want much of on either side.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Jose Bautista, Todd Frazier

Mets Probable Starter – Jacob deGrom, RHP 

1.82 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 30.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .235 average, .278 wOBA, 30.3 K rate, 30.4 fly ball rate and 26.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .170 average, .209 wOBA, 29.9 K rate, 30.6 fly ball rate and 31.4 hard hit rate

I would think about a lefty Atlanta stack but It’s not the highest probability play by any means. The one hitter I would be fine with as a one-off in GPP’s is Freddie Freeman. He’s hit deGrom for a .289 average and a .489 xwOBA to go along with two home runs in their careers. Even against the Atlanta offense, deGrom is in play as one of the best pitching options on the board tonight. He could win the N.L. Cy Young for a reason.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Freddie Freeman(GPP)

Secondary Options – Lefty stack if your’e feeling bold with hitters like Freeman, Nick Markakis, Ozzie Albies and Johan Camargo

Home Run Pick –  Freddie Freeman

DFS MLB – White Sox at Rays

White Sox Probable Starter – Lucas Giolito, RHP 

6.26 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and 13.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .277 average, .384 wOBA, 9.7 K rate, 44.7 fly ball rate and 32.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .226 average, .329 wOBA, 17.9 K rate, 39.1 fly ball rate and 29.7 hard hit rate

I’ve been playing Jake Bauers a lot lately and that very well could be the case again tonight. He rates very well by all the metrics we trust including xwOBA at a massive .466 against the righty fastball. Giolito throws it 50 percent of the time to lefties and we can hone in on that. Tack on the .360 wOBA and a .265 ISO so far in 2018 and he should smash Giolito tonight. Especially if he can’t miss any lefty bats, Ji-Man Choi and Mallex Smith look good as well. Choi has almost the exact same xwOBA as Bauers does and is a good bit cheaper. Smith would be my second choice and he showed off the other night just how much his wheels can help your FanDuel score in a heartbeat. Anytime he’s under $3,000, there’s room to make his salary work and Giolito continues to scuffle along as a major leaguer.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jake Bauers

Secondary Options – Mallex Smith, Ji-Man Choi

Rays Probable Starter – Bullpen Day 

Chicago is a pretty unappealing team on a good day. This might be a poor day to try and use them because too many hitters are platoon split prone and have to give you some discomfort. Yoan Moncada is one of the biggest examples of that as he has a .341 wOBA against righties and a.232 wOBA against lefties. The Rays have waved the white flag on this season and all bets are off with their pitching other than Blake Snell. The White Sox offense isn’t one I want any part of tonight when I can’t even be sure who they’re facing. Even if we get word about who the bulk of the innings should go to, that could change during the game.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu

Home Run Pick – Jake Bauers

DFS MLB – Angels at Indians

Angels Probable Starter – Jaime Barria, RHP 

3.74 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 17.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .197 average, .241 wOBA, 20.0 K rate, 35.1 fly ball rate and 35.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .286 average, .397 wOBA, 15.7 K rate, 44.5 fly ball rate and 40.8 hard hit rate

When I first saw that Barria was on the slate against the Indians, I was all revved up to play Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez. Seeing his numbers against lefties does give me at least some hesitation. I still might play Ramirez if I can fit him without sacrificing like crazy but I also might just go to the righty with power in this lineup – Edwin Encarnacion. He might not be having the best season but is still third on the team in ISO against righty pitching at .264. He’s also a plus for xwOBA at .385 against the four seam and slider that Barria throws 90 percent to righty hitters. This might weirdly be a good spot for Barria and I know I sound insane for saying that. Now that it’s in writing, I fully expect the Indians to hang a 10 spot on him but he controls lefty hitters. There could be six or seven in the lineup tonight. I wouldn’t look at the score until the game was long over, but I could see Barria pitching just fine tonight.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Options – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Yonder Alonso, Michael Brantley

Indians Probable Starter – Mike Clevinger, RHP 

3.43 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 24.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .234 average, .303 wOBA, 21.3 K rate, 39.1 fly ball rate and 35.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .245 average, .293 wOBA, 27.2 K rate, 38.1 fly ball rate and 35.7 hard hit rate

My interest in Clevinger is almost wholly dictated by Mike Trout and if he plays tonight. If Trout plays, that’s likely enough of a reason to avoid Clevinger. The starter for the Indians almost always lands in the 32-38 point area on FanDuel and he’s a little expensive. If Trout still needs another game to heal a wrist injury, Clevinger becomes a lot more intriguing. He’s got a solid strikeout rate and could be in line to have a ceiling game if Trout is on the bench, Kole Calhoun and Justin Upton would be the other hitters to consider here with their .218 and .215 ISO. We’ll see what the lineup card brings us before making the final decision.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Kole Calhoun, Shohei Othani, Justin Upton

Home Run Pick – E5

DFS MLB – Yankees at Red Sox

Yankees Probable Starter – Luis Severino, RHP 

2.94 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 28.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .234 average, .288 wOBA, 29.5 K rate, 30.7 fly ball rate and 37.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .220 average, .268 wOBA, 27.8 K rate, 35.8 fly ball rate and 31.7 hard hit rate

We haven’t seen Severino top 45+ fantasy points since the start of July. It can likely be chalked up to some ups and downs in a long baseball season but being in Fenway against an offense that hit double digits last night isn’t the task he was probably looking for. This is fairly easy to me – if you’re a Severino believer, you can try him in GPP because his ownership will be minimal. If you think he’s got one more bad start on the way, stack up Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and J.D. Martinez against him. All three of those hitters have a .400 xwOBA or better against Severino and Benintendi especially owns him. He’s 10-22 with two doubles, a triple and two home runs.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Three man stack

Secondary Options – Steve Pearce because he turned in a three home run game last night

Red Sox Probable Starter – Rick Porcello, RHP 

4.03 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 22.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .241 average, .319 wOBA, 26.0 K rate, 42.3 fly ball rate and 40.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .254 average, .295 wOBA, 19.5 K rate, 30.0 fly ball rate and 25.6 hard hit rate

This side is also pretty simple to break down. Porcello gets whacked by lefties in Fenway with a .285 average and a .383 wOBA. He’s also given up eight home runs compared to two on the road. Didi Gregorius and Greg Bird are both really good options with a .240 and .222 ISO, respectively. Gregorius might not have much left in him after two bombs yesterday but maybe Bird can pick up the slack. The one potential limitation on these hitters is they don’t look great against Porcello’s pitch types. That’s not always the end all but Gregorius is at a .325 xwOBA and Bird is down under .300. I don’t want to mess around with the righties in this spot because Porcello is so tough against them. It never feels good against the Yankees but Porcello might not be the worst option tonight. I’m not saying he’s the best but there’s a little interest in him tonight as a contrarian route.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Didi Gregorius

Secondary Options – Greg Bird, Brett Gardner

Home Run Pick – Andrew Benintendi

DFS MLB – Orioles at Rangers

Orioles Probable Starter – David Hess, RHP 

5.94 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 13.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .286 average, .373 wOBA, 14.8 K rate, 47.6 fly ball rate and 30.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .265 average, .352 wOBA, 12.2 K rate, 48.9 fly ball rate and 31.8 hard hit rate

The ball was flying in the Texas heat last night and it shouldn’t be much different tonight. The Rangers draw a pretty bad pitcher who doesn’t strike anyone out, which could prove to be a lethal combination. Shin-soo Choo almost feels like a must have again because his price is still only $3,100. He should destroy Hess, who throws a fastball and change to lefties most of the time. Choo has a .480 xwOBA against those two pitches and his wIBA is still over .400. The ISO is still way up there at .244 and it’s hard to justify not playing him. Rougned Odor is starting to fell like a must own as well anymore. He walked five times last night and hit a homer. I might have been one of the weirdest box scores of the whole night. The Texas lineup is loaded with power and I wouldn’t talk you out of any of their hitters tonight.

Rangers Hitters to target 

Elite Options – Rougned Odor, Shin-soo Choo, Jurickson Profar

Secondary Options -Joey Gallo, Willie Calhoun, Elvis Andrus

Rangers Probable Starter – Ariel Jurado, RHP 

*10.2 IP* 4.22 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 9.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .167 average, .251 wOBA, 10.5 K rate, 37.5 fly ball rate and 37.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .227 average, .304 wOBA, 8.3 K rate, 40.0 fly ball rate and 25.0 hard hit rate

Jurado came out of nowhere and shut down the Astros offense in his last start, which is pretty impressive. He’s using his sinker a ton so far to either side of the plate and the best hitter on the Orioles against righty sinker is Chris Davis with a .676 xwOBA. Jurado carries such a low strikeout rate., I think Davis might actually be a cheap option for a big game. I would also look at Jonathan Villar, who should lead off at $2,400. He’ll be the main second baseman for Baltimore down the stretch and he’s hit better as a lefty this year and could always swipe a bag or two. Trey Mancini and Mark Trumbo also hit the sinker pretty well with xwOBA’s over .375 and they both have an ISO over .170 against righty pitching. Given the hitting environment, we should have some significant interest in cheap Orioles bats.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Chris Davis(shudders), Jonathan Villar

Secondary Options – Mark Trumbo, Trey Mancini, cheap hitters towards the top of the lineup

Home Run Pick – Elvis Andrus

DFS MLB – Rockies at Brewers

Rockies Probable Starter – German Marquez, RHP 

4.82 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 23.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .286 average, .350 wOBA, 18.0 K rate, 33.5 fly ball rate and 32.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .228 average, .311 wOBA, 30.6 K rate, 26.5 fly ball rate and 36.0 hard hit rate

The Brewers might still be smarting after getting waxed by a score of 21-5 last night and I would normally have some interest in Marquez on the road. He has a 3.15 ERA on the road compared to a 6.63 in Coors Field. It’s still pretty tough to get behind pitching him in a hitter’s park in Milwaukee against a solid lineup. We’re going to see how the Brewers look against a righty for the first time since they added Jonathan Schoop but if Travis Shaw remains in the lineup, he’s one of the first hitters I would look at. He’s just $2,800 and carries a .280 ISO and a .379 wOBA against righty pitching this year. In addition, Marquez throws his four seam about 54 percent of the time to lefties and Shaw has a .458 xwOBA against that pitch. Eric Thames is always a threat to ghost you with three strikeouts but the power of a .303 ISO and a potential leadoff spot at $2,900 is hard to overlook as well. Any Brewers lefty is a pretty solid play tonight.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Travis Shaw, Eric Thames(GPP), Mike Moustakas, Christian Yelich

Secondary Options – Jesus Aguilar, Lorenzo Cain

Brewers Probable Starter – Junior Guerra, RHP 

3.43 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 22.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .232 average, .319 wOBA, 23.4 K rate, 38.6 fly ball rate and 40.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .232 average, .303 wOBA, 22.4 K rate,  41.0 fly ball rate and 44.8 hard hit rate

I think it’s safe to say I won’t be forcing Rockies into my lineup this evening. Colorado ranks 23rd or worse in average, ISO, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ against righties on the road and Guerra has been having a solid year. He has a pretty respectable strikeout rate as well, which Colorado has a top 10 strikeout rate away from Coors. I suppose if you made me pick a Rockies hitter, it would be Charlie Blackmon and his .255 ISO or maybe Garrett Hampson because he’s priced as a punt. Nolan Arenado is always a threat but he only has a .198 ISO and .335 wOBA against righties this year. I’d want higher numbers for a player that costs me $4,200 regardless of the good hitter’s environment.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Areando, Garret Hampson

Home Run Pick – Travis Shaw

DFS MLB – Royals at Twins

Royals Probable Starter – Heath Fillmyer, RHP 

3.29 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 13.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .173 average, .240 wOBA, 12.9 K rate, 27.3 fly ball rate and 20.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .292 average, .357 wOBA, 13.7 K rate, 26.8 fly ball rate and 48.8 hard hit rate

It’s only about a 27 inning sample size so I wouldn’t go crazy with the splits here but could it finally be a Miguel Sano day? He’s had a putrid year but FIllmyer has been awful against righty hitters and isn’t striking them out very much. Sano still brings some power. Even with how poorly he’s hit this year, there’s still a .220 ISO to speak to the power. Fillmyer has a 6.00 FIP to righties and Sano is one of the only right handed hitters in the Twins lineup. I don’t have a problem using hitters like Jorge Polanco and Eddie Rosario because their price has fallen off significantly. The lead the team in wOBA against righties at .434 and .380, respectively. Since the Twins aren’t really a prestige offense, they could go under-owned tonight. It appears that FIllmyer is living on borrowed time and there’s a blowup coming.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Miguel Sano(GPP)

Secondary Options – Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario, Mitch Garver, Joe Mauer

Twins Probable STarter – Jake Odorizzi, RHP 

4.58 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 24.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .263 average, .370 wOBA, 21.6 K rate, 50.7 fly ball rate and 36.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .250 average, .325 wOBA, 25.9 K rate, 46.8 fly ball rate and 35.8 hard hit rate

Odorizzi got beat up against the Red Sox in his last start but the start before that saw him score 43 points against these same Royals. In 74 at-bats, the active Royals hitters have a combined .207 xwOBA against him and that includes the mark of .567 from Whit Merrifield. I normally don’t play Merrifield against righties with his 0.86 ISO and .311 wOBA. Given the career numbers and the sad state of this Royals team, I might pitch Odorizzi. He struck out eight Kansas City hitters last start and he’s just $7,000. There’s not an active everyday player with a wOBA over .345 and an ISO over .187 against righty pitching.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Lucas Duda, Whit Merrifield

Home Run Pick – Miguel Sano

DFS MLB – Giants at Diamondbacks

Giants Probable Starter – Chris Stratton, RHP 

5.14 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 17.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .272 average, .347 wOBA, 13.5 K rate, 30.7 fly ball rate and 37.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .281 average, .347 wOBA, 23.1 K rate, 35.4 fly ball rate and 48.4 hard hit rate

Madison Bumgarner dodged some bullets last night, escaping a couple big jams with the bases loaded but I don’t think Stratton has that same ability tonight. I’m probably not getting too fancy with who I’m playing and targeting the top four hitters in the lineup. Paul Goldschmidt has seen Stratton well in their careers. He has a .553 xwOBA against him and then has a .400 xwOBA against righty fastballs, which Stratton throws over 55 percent of the time to either side of the plate. A.J. Pollock has an even larger xwOBA against the fast ball and a .250 ISO to back that up. If you wanted to go to the left side of the plate, David Peralta leads the team in wOBA at .389 and Eduardo Escobar has been a solid hitter all season long. It might be tough sledding for Stratton tonight.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt

Secondary Options – David Peralta, Eduardo Escobar

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Patrick Corbin, LHP 

3.26 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 30.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .267 average, .350 wOBA, 28.1 K rate, 20.6 fly ball rate and 43.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .197 average, .242 wOBA, 31.3 K rate, 28.3 fly ball rate and 42.3 hard hit rate

Corbin is in the running for my pitcher of choice tonight because the Giants offense just isn’t very good. Buster Posey and Andrew McCutchen have seen their play take a step backwards this year and the San Francisco hitters have totaled a .291 xwOBA against Corbin in 238 at-bats. The last time the Giants faced a lefty, they put eight righties in the lineup. That typically makes a lot of sense but Corbin has smoked righty hitters this year. You could talk me into Brandon Crawford as a tournament play with Corbin being worse against lefties and Crawford does have a decent .341 wOBA and a .181 ISO against lefty pitching. It’s just not one of the better plays on the board in my eyes. This could be a game where Corbin strikes out eight or more, goes at least six innings and only gives up a run or two.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Brandon Crawford(GPP)

Home Run Pick – A.J. Pollock

DFS MLB – Tigers at A’s

Tigers Probable Starter – Blaine Hardy, LHP 

3.61 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 17.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .217 average, .275 wOBA, 12.3 K rate, 39.0 fly ball rate and 31.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .269 average, .320 wOBA, 19.5 K rate, 41.7 fly ball rate and 38.5 hard hit rate

This game could actually have some sneaky stacking potential. There’s hitters from the A’s that specialize against lefties and the Tigers destroy lefties as a team. More on them in a minute but Mark Canha seems like a lock at this point. He’s just as cheap as he usually is at $2,600 and he smacks lefty pitching. He has an OPS of 1.019, an ISO of .358 and a .419 wOBA. On top of all that, he rates well against the four seam/changeup mix that is most of Hardy’s pitches against righty hitters with a .437 xwOBA. It’s hard to fade all of those factors tonight. Matt Chapman and Jed Lowrie would probably be up next even though the wOBA isn’t quite as impressive as Canha’s. I think some may go to Khris Davis but just remember he’s reverse splits by the numbers. His ISO is at .200 but the wOBA is .310 and the xwOBA against the pitch type is down at .296.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mark Canha

Secondary Options – Jed Lowrie, Matt Chapman

A’s Probable Starter – Brett Anderson, LHP 

5.55 ERA, 1.68 WHIP and 11.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .297 average, .366 wOBA, 4.7 K rate, 20.0 fly ball rate and 34.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .348 average, .423 wOBA, 14.4 K rate, 31.5 fly ball rate and 36.8 hard hit rate

Nicholas Castellanos has been in a major slump lately but seeing Brett Anderson might cure whatever is ailing him. Castellanos is a lefty destroyer with a .462 wOBA, .252 ISO and a 1.102 OPS. To put the cherry on top, he has a .514 xwOBA against the sinker and slider that makes up over 50 percent of the pitches Anderson throws. The price is down at $2,900 and that’s awfully tempting. I’d bet nobody will play him but Jose Iglesias might be the next best option with a .211 ISO and a .390 wOBA. He usually hits lower in the order but he’s still under $3,000 and Anderson looks like he might be done as a major league pitcher. You can run Jeimer Candelario and John Hicks as cheap ways to finish off a four man stack because they have a wOBA of at least .360. Detroit ranks in the top 12 in average, wOBA and wRC+ against lefties this year and should be able to hit Anderson around.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nicholas Castellanos, Jose Iglesias

Secondary Options – Jeimer Candelario, John Hicks

Home Run Pick – Mark Canha

DFS MLB – Astros at Dodgers

Astros Probable Starter – Justin Verlander, RHP 

2.24 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 32.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .184 average, .269 wOBA, 35.8 K rate, 54.2 fly ball rate and 27.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .200 average, .243 wOBA, 30.5 K rate, 51.4 fly ball rate and 29.3 hard hit rate

After seeing the Dodgers drop 20+ runs last night, I might actually shy away from Verlander tonight. He’s such a good pitcher that he can get it done against any offense in baseball but that doesn’t mean I have to pay up to find out. On most nights, Verlander is the slam dunk cash option. There has to be a little bit of fear that the Dodgers keep the hot bats rolling. The fly balls are a legitimate concern here because the Dodgers have power up and down their entire lineup. Perhaps the best factor in Verlander’s favor is in a total of 108 at-bats, the active Dodgers hitters have a combined .231 xwOBA against him. I would likely side with deGrom or Corbin before I used Verlander this evening.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Stack your favorites because there’s no shortage of good hitters

Dodgers Probable Starter – Alex Wood, LHP 

3.68 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 21.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .258 average, .254 wOBA, 24.0 K rate, 20.2 fly ball rate and 29.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .234 average, .295 wOBA, 20.2 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 41.4 hard hit rate

I’m not sure how the lineup will shake out for Houston tonight. George Springer should make his way back after sitting a day with a should injury. Evan Gattis would not be in the lineup I assume with this one taking place in a National League park. If both of those hitters are out of the lineup, I think Wood is actually a viable option in tournaments. Alex Bregman is the only hitter that I’m heavily considering with his .301 ISO and .418 wOBA this season against lefties. He does take a small ding because Wood throws a sinker over 50 percent of the time and Bregman has “just” a .378 xwOBA against it. That’s far from terrible, it’s more I just hope for a little higher. It’s not something that would stop me from playing him. Wood hasn’t given up a homer to lefties yet this year so I think it’s Bregman and maybe Springer or bust. The rest of the Astros righties aren’t trustworthy enough for me.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Alex Bregman

Secondary Options – George Springer

Home Run Pick – Alex Bregman

DFS MLB – Blue Jays at Mariners

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Ryan Borucki, LHP 

2.83 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 18.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .265 average, .277 wOBA, 17.1 K rate, 32.1 fly ball rate and 28.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .278 average, .319 wOBA, 18.6 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 32.6 hard hit rate

Borucki still hasn’t given up a home run in the majors but that might change tonight. Nelson Cruz is on red-alert to go yard yet again because he destroys lefties at home. The average isn’t spectacular at just .255 but the OPS is 1.102, the ISO is a monstrous .489 and the wOBA is .441. Borucki throws a four seam or changes up 89 percent of the time and Cruz has a .545 xwOBA against those two lefty pitches. He might be one of the best plays on the board tonight and it always feels good to have that late night hammer. Players who had the Dodgers last night had to be feeling pretty good. That might be the only Mariner I’m really interested in. Ryon Healy is the only other hitter with an ISO over .180 among regulars but the wOBA is down at .306. Borucki’s lack of homer’s given up helps limit my interest to just Cruz.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nelson Cruz

Secondary Options – Ryon Healy

Mariners Probable Starter – Marco Gonzales, LHP 

3.37 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 21.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .250 average, .286 wOBA, 17.1 K rate, 29.8 fly ball rate and 40.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .254 average, .299 wOBA, 22.7 K rate, 28.3 fly ball rate and 34.1 hard hit rate

Gonzales is a pitcher that always confuses me. The metrics all seem in place and there’s nothing really to pick on, but I sometimes have trouble wrapping my head around using Gonzales for any reason. He’s rolled out five straight quality starts, giving up a total six earned stretching back to June 29th. I don’t know if I can stomach over $9,000 for him but the only Toronto hitter that I might play is Teoscar Hernandez. He’s wrecked lefty pitching from a power perspective this season, accumulating a .309 ISO. There’s some risk because he strikes out over 27 percent of the time so he’s best used in tournaments, not cash. Yangervis Solarte is the only other regular with a .200 or higher ISO but I’m not jamming in hitters against Gonzales.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Teoscar Hernandez(GPP)

Secondary Options – Yangervis Solarte

Home Run Pick – Nelson Cruz

DFS MLB – FanDuel Sample Lineup

P – Patrick Corbin

C/1B – Edwin Encarnacion 

2B – Daniel Murphy 

3B – Colin Moran

SS – Jorge Polanco 

OF – Mark Canha, Nicholas Castellanos, Nelson Cruz 

Utility – Juan Soto 

Corbin really is the most attractive option to me because he draws the most positive matchup among the high-end pitchers and he’s cheapest of the bunch. We really have some power bates with E5, Cruz, Soto, and Castellanos. Even Murphy can be in the power bat discussion considering his matchup. The opportunity cost is we’re punting third base with Moran and sort of punting shortstop with Polanco, but I don’t believe Polanco to be a true punt. If everyone is in the lineup, I really like the looks of this one.

The Core – Patrick Corbin, Mark Canha, Nationals lefties

Pitching to Consider 

High End – Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom, Patrick Corbin

Mid-Range – Vince Velasquez, Trevor Richards

Punts – Jamie Barria as a crazy option

Stacks to Consider – Washington Nationals, Detroit/Oakland Game Stack, Cleveland Indians, Rangers/Orioles stack, Arizona Diamondbacks, Boston Red Sox

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.