DraftKings MLB Picks August 3: deGrom over Verlander?

NEW YORK, NY – MAY 16: Amed Rosario #1 of the New York Mets looks on in the rain against the Toronto Blue Jays during their game at Citi Field on May 16, 2018 in New York City. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images) /

DraftKings MLB Picks August 3: deGrom over Verlander?

The Cubs and Padres are playing a matinee at Wrigley, but the other 14 games make up our main DraftKings tournament. We have a couple of true aces, but a crowded middle tier is going to make tonight interesting and one where we really could learn a lot from past stats. Let’s check it out!

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Once again, a late start looks likely in Flushing, but other than that, the map looks pretty dry. They may have short delays in Minneapolis or Philly, but the games themselves shouldn’t be threatened.

The wind is blowing out to left in both New York and Boston, so that could help some right handed bats in those games. The wind is blowing out to right in Oakland, but that wont matter in that park. There is a nasty wind in from right center in Minneapolis, so that could temper runs.

We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!

These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on!

For you first time players, if you would like $20 in free DraftKings dollars, use this link for the referral bonus with your first deposit of $5 or more! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn those DraftKings dollars into more!

HOUSTON, TX – JULY 28: Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros pitches in the first inning against the Texas Rangers at Minute Maid Park on July 28, 2018 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Justin Verlander ($13,100): The Dodgers are hitting only .228 in 79 at bats against Verlander with only one homer, six runs, and 20 strikeouts. That said, this offense is loaded, so paying this much for Verlander with several other viable options below him seems unnecessary. I would still prefer deGrom in cash and Corbin in GPP formats.

Jacob deGrom ($12,400): Simply put, deGrom has been dominant this year. There is no other way to say it. As good as he has been on the road, he has been nearly unhittable at home. deGrom posts a 1.66 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 11 home starts. Good luck Atlanta. You’re going to need it. deGrom has already faced the Braves four times this year. He has racked up 100.4 DraftKings points in those games. deGrom is going to be a cash game stud because you know exactly what you are getting.

Patrick Corbin ($10,400): Corbin has leveled his home/road splits to the point where the opponent matters more than the location. Corbin has faced the Giants four times already, and has racked up 108.9 DraftKings points in that span. The huge strikeout totals help that cause. When it comes down to it, Corbin has actually outperformed deGrom against tonight’s opponent. I’m all over this for GPP purposes, but deGrom’s more of a sure thing in cash games.

Middle Tier:

Marco Gonzales ($9,700): Gonzales has a 2.88 ERA in ten home starts this year. Now he gets a pretty weak Toronto offense. Of course, this is going to feel like a road game for Gonzales with the Canuck invasion from north of the border. I don’t think it matters. There aren’t many in this offense that can hurt Gonzales tonight. I expect a pretty strong outing here.

Chris Archer ($8,200): The current Cardinals do have 25 career at bats against Archer. They have just four hits and no runs with ten strikeouts. I love Archer’s move to the National League. His metrics have always been above average. I do think that he starts to put up the other numbers to go with it. I see a strong debut for Archer where he performs above his price point. The bad news is, I expect Archer to be somewhat of a chalk pick here.

Vince Velasquez ($8,000): So, you have reservations about using pitchers against the Marlins. Me too. We just have to pick our spots. The home numbers for Velasquez are still rather terrible, but he shaved more than three runs off his home ERA since Father’s Day. Velasquez also held the Marlins to just one run in six innings for 24.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting this year. The Marlins are only hitting .259 with one homer, three runs, and 12 strikeouts against Velasquez ins 58 career at bats. Those numbers are plenty good enough for this price.

Anibal Sanchez ($8,000): Anibal got rained out earlier this week. His reward is the Mess……er……Mets. This team is only hitting .228 against Anibal with two homers and ten runs in 92 at bats. However, most of the damage was done by Bautista, who just isn’t himself anymore. Sanchez has solid potential, but with so many other great options in the middle, he is nothing more than a GPP play.

Bargain Pitchers:

German Marquez ($7,500): Marquez doesn’t have great numbers, but a lot of that has to do with his home park. Marquez has a 3.15 ERA in ten road starts. He was destroyed by the Brewers in Denver, and this incarnation of the offense has much more power. That said, those road numbers and better than a strikeout per inning make Marquez a strong play in GPP formats. The groundwork is here for a good game, but a blowup is possible.

Junior Guerra ($7,100): A wise person once said what’s good for the Marquez is good for the Guerra. Okay, maybe it wasn’t those exact words, but you get the idea. The Rockies struck out a lot in St. Louis. They will bring their free swinging ways to the city of Brews against a pitcher that puts up some good strikeout numbers. Guerra has a 2.46 ERA in 12 home starts with 68 strikeouts in 66 innings. Coupled with the fact that the Rockies just don’t hit that well on the road, that gives Guerra really solid upside at a very low price.

Brett Anderson ($5,100): With as poor as the Tigers offense is, there is actually some value here. Just be aware that there is a good chance that Anderson doesn’t strike out anyone. There is no strikeout upside, but I could see Anderson lasting six innings here. If he does, Anderson will perform pretty well for the price.

NEW YORK, NY – AUGUST 01: Gleyber Torres #25 of the New York Yankees hits a 3 run home run in the bottom of the ninth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Yankee Stadium on August 1, 2018 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /

Minnesota Twins vs. Heath Fillmyer:

Fillmyer has been better than serviceable at home, but the road games have been an adventure. He has a 4.05 ERa on the road so far. I know the Twins sold off a lot of pieces, but Joe Mauer, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, and LoMo are all good hitters even if they don’t have a lot of power. I kind of like a cheaper Twins stack coupled with deGrom and one of the mid tier options for one of my lineups tonight.

New York Yankees vs. Rick Porcello:

Porcello has a 5.10 ERA at home this year. That’s bad news with the Yankees in town. Both teams gave the scoreboard operators a workout last night. I don’t expect a ton of runs tonight from Boston, but the Yankees could. Their numbers against Porcello are pretty good. Aaron Hicks, Didi Gregorius, and Brett Gardner have all homered off of Porcello twice. The hot Gleyber Torres is worth a look, and who doesn’t like Stanton’s elite power potential?

Houston Astros vs. Alex Wood:

Stacking on Wood may be a little over the top, but the Astros will go overlooked with Altuve and Correa both out. If Springer is out again as well, it will open up some more value. I’m not a huge believer in Wood right now even though he pitched well in his last start. Bregman and Gattis are the elite picks, but there is value to be had in lefty killers Yuli Gurriel, Jake Marisnick, and Tyler White here. Consider this a contrarian stack.

Oakland Athletics vs. Blaine Hardy:

Behold, the late night hammer(s)! The A’s have punished Hardy, hitting .367 with a homer and seven runs against him in just 30 at bats. Lowrie has the homer, but Khris Davis is also an elite play. I’m also very interested in Mark Canha, Piscotty, Semien, and Matt Chapman here. There is plenty of right handed power to attack with.

SEATTLE, WA – AUGUST 01: Nelson Cruz #23 of the Seattle Mariners celebrates his home run in the sixth inning against the Houston Astros at Safeco Field on August 1, 2018 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Lindsey Wasson/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

Do you trust DeSclafani after what the Nationals offense has done after the break? Me either. Daniel Murphy has touched up DeSclafani for the homer and all five RBI for the team already, but I’m liking Soto and Bryce Harper here as well.

We all know that Joey Votto still hits lefties well. In few places is that more evident than against Gio Gonzalez. Votto has three homers and five RBI against Gio and a .375 average in 24 at bats. Suarez has the other Reds homer off of Gonzalez. Those are the two Reds I’m after tonight.

Trevor Richards has been decent against the Phillies in two starts this year, but not enough that I want to stack against him or pay his price. Hoskins is 3-4 against him, so he is a good one off play. Odubel Herrera and Nick Williams are solid plays as well, just don’t expect a poor game from Richards.

Lock in Nelson Cruz. He is facing a lefty at home. That’s about as automatic as you can get! Haniger and Ryon Healy are worth a look as well. Borucki has pitched well so far, so I’m not going to go crazy, but Cruz is a lock.

Luis Severino has good numbers against Boston, but not good enough for me to shell out that much for him. I would much rather play Benintendi here. Benintendi is 10-22(.455) with two homers and a staggering ten RBI against Severino so far. Mookie is worth a look as well with eight runs scored in 24 at bats. Don’t attack Severino on the cheap though. Pay up or bow out.

Nothing jumps out about John Gant‘s numbers. That means he is neither good nor bad. I want some Pirates exposure, but not a lot. Polanco and Marte make sense. I also like Josh Harrison or Jordy Mercer if you elect to go cheap and pay for pitchers.

Jaime Barria‘s numbers don’t jump out either. What does is the consistency of him. Due to this, I’m not stacking Cleveland. However, Edwin and Jose Ramirez smash lefties, and Lindor hits them well enough to take a look here. If you want to go cheap, Brandon Guyer is there, but he hasn’t hit as well this year as he usually does.

Blackmon and Arenado are always good plays, even on the road, but I wouldn’t touch any other Rockies. That said, I think there is more bang for your buck available than Arenado and Blackmon too.

Chris Stratton pitched well against Arizona earlier this year, but it may as well have been a lifetime ago. Since then, Stratton has been exiled to the bullpen where he hasn’t been all that impressive. I definitely want Goldy here. Peralta and Eduardo Escobar are worth a look as well.

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Middle Tier:

Taking a shot at Anibal with a couple of Mets is not the worst idea I’ve heard. I still expect a huge regression coming for Anibal but I don’t know that it will happen with the Mets. However, in the chances that it does, Conforto and Bautista provide reasonably priced power with good past stats.

You could make a case for Freddie Freeman, and it’s a solid one. He has two homers and four RBI with a .289 average in 38 at bats. That said, deGrom’s numbers this year are just ridiculous. Even the depressed price on Freeman isn’t quite that tantalizing anymore.

I would consider a Rays stack against Lucas Giolito, but I don’t really know where to start. Cron and Bauers are a good start, but where after that? The Rays are getting production all over the place, which makes this team great for value, but not so much for the higher priced players. Like I said, I don’t really know where to go with this. I just know that I want some exposure.

I still like Jose Abreu and Avi Garcia against Ryne Stanek and the bullpen after that. If you can pick the Rays pitcher who is going to go most of the innings, this is a good place to attack because of the strikeout upside, but at this point you are playing reliever roulette if you go without official word.

I think I’m going to limit my Blue Jays exposure to Teoscar Hernandez, and even that is a bit of a reach with the way Gonzales has pitched at home.

The relative ineptitude of the Tigers offense has me laying off of a stack against Brett Anderson. Hell, you could even roll him out there as a super cheap SP2 tonight. Castellanos and Candelario are about the only Tigers worth considering. I don’t see a lot of upside, even against Anderson.

Manny Machado is the only Dodger to homer off of Verlander so far. This may be a situation to capitalize on some of the lower priced Dodgers, but Verlander isn’t going to get beat up on either. Use in moderation.

The only thing I know for sure is that the Orioles and Rangers game is going to be ugly. Two poor pitchers, two poor offenses. Someone is going to go off in this game. If you can pick which ones, you can take down a GPP. Choo and Gallo are going to be popular picks. I like Tim Beckham from the Orioles side as well.

Bargain Shoppers:

It isn’t the big name Angels that have got to Mike Clevinger. Luis Valbuena is just $3,200, and he is 3-6 with a homer and three RBI off of Clevinger. Calhoun has taken him deep as well. If I go Angels, I’m going cheap. So why not use Clevinger? The 4.26 home ERA turns me off at his price.

Jake Odorizzi has okay numbers against the Royals, but I’m more excited about other pitching options. I’m also thinking of attacking this with a red hot Alex Gordon. Gordon has ah homer and seven RBI against Odorizzi in only 13 at bats. Merrifield has homered off of Odorizzi twice in eight at bats.

Hunter Pence is the only Giant I would even consider rolling out there against Corbin. Pence is 15-38(.395) with four homers and 11 RBI against Corbin, and he is just $3,400!

Game by game breakdown August 3. dark. Next

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