Sergey Kovalev vs. Eleider Alvarez preview and prediction

Sergey Kovalev defends his WBO light heavyweight title against unbeaten Eleider Alvarez. Despite Alvarez’s perfect record, he’s a massive underdog.

Sergey Kovalev (32-2-1, 28 KOs) achieved one of the rarest things in all of boxing, a second chance. Nearly a year ago, Andre Ward beat him up and handed him his second loss. Today, he’s atop of the light heavyweight rankings and is riding a two-fight winning streak.

He knocked out his last two opponents, but can he stop unbeaten Eleider Alvarez on Saturday, Aug. 4 (HBO;10 PM)?

Kovalev’s a knockout artist. He has 28 career knockouts to his credit and boasts an 80 percent KO rating. After he lost to Ward for the second time, he returned to the ring five months later to stop Vyacheslav Shabranskyy in two rounds.

In his last fight, Kovalev stopped Igor Mikhalkin in the seventh round.

Shabranskyy and Mikhalkin weren’t stellar opponents, but Alvarez (23-0, 11 KOs) is a legitimate threat. He’s a seasoned professional who has never lost a fight. His record is sterling, but oddsmakers have him at 4-1 odds. Alvarez is a significant underdog despite his clean record.

There’s a reason for that.

Kovalev looked good in his first fight against Ward. People forget that Kovalev dropped Ward in the second round of their first meeting. Ward pulled it together in the second half of the bout a won a controversial unanimous decision.

All three judges scored it 114-113 for Ward. That’s a narrow margin of victory.

Ward definitively won the rematch in June 2017. He stopped Kovalev via TKO in the eighth round with body shots. Kovalev didn’t look good, but he recently told FanSided that he wasn’t prepared for that fight.

"“I was broke mentally, and my emotions pushed me to get a rematch, but I wasn’t ready for [a] rematch,” said Kovalev. “But what happened has happened, and I’m happy that life gave me [a] big lesson, that I should be focused on my boxing career if I want to be a great champion.”"

Kovalev’s loss to Ward served as a wake-up call to Kovalev, and now he’s on a mission to become undisputed light heavyweight champion before he retires.

Kovalev’s age is a factor but not against Alvarez. He’s 35 years old, which is old for a boxer, but Alvarez is no spring chicken himself. He’s 34 years old.

Going by the numbers, Alvarez has a slight edge in experience. Both men turned professional in 2009, but Alvarez has boxed 11 more rounds than Kovalev which is deceiving. While Alvarez has the advantage in rounds boxed, Kovalev has fought 12 more professional fights than Alvarez.

This anomaly is due to Kovalev’s ability to knock out opponents.

Kovalev has 28 knockouts on his record compared to Alvarez’s 11. Alvarez isn’t a knockout puncher. He’s a boxer.

The main reason Alvarez is a four to one underdog comes down to his level of opposition. Alvarez has notable wins over Isaac Chilemba, Jean Pascal, and Lucian Bute. That’s a solid résumé, but there should be an asterisk next to those names.

Alvarez squeaked by Chilemba and Pascal with majority decisions. His victories against them weren’t decisive. Kovalev, on the other hand, dominated Chilemba and Pascal.  He stopped Pascal on two occasions.

The Lucian Bute that Alvarez knocked out in 2017 was damaged goods. Bute had four losses on his record and was badly faded. Bute was a great champion once, but his abilities were eroded when Alvarez fought him. Bute hasn’t fought since his fight with Alvarez.

Kovalev should beat Alvarez, but his two-fight KO streak might end. Alvarez is a skilled boxer, and he’ll take on the role of counterpuncher against Kovalev. Alvarez is known for his jab. Kovalev likes to press the action and be the aggressor.

Kovalev and Alvarez have opposite styles, which can make for a boring fight.

Alvarez is a strong enough defensive fighter to avoid Kovalev’s knockout punches for 12 rounds. Once he tastes Kovalev’s power for the first time, he’ll start to run. He can clip Kovalev with jabs, but he doesn’t possess enough power to hurt Kovalev.

Alvarez’s name will make an excellent addition to Kovalev’s list of boxers vanquished. Tune in to HBO at 10 PM ET on Saturday, Aug. 4 to watch the fight live. Kovalev will continue his winning ways and set up a showdown with WBA champion and rising star Dmitry Bivol.

Kovalev has to take care of business against Alvarez first, but he should win without a problem.