DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Sunday, August 5

Welcome into the Sunday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have a nice sized nine game slate today so let’s dig in!

The frustration of DFS MLB reared it’s head a little bit last night as we couldn’t quite get over the hump and one of my favorite three man stacks got no-hit by Marco Estrada into the seventh inning. It was that kind of night so hopefully Sunday afternoon will be a little kinder to us!

DFS MLB – Braves at Mets

Braves Probable Starter – Julio Teheran, RHP 

4.46 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 21.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .223 average, .344 wOBA, 17.7 K rate, 42.2 fly ball rate and 42.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .197 average, .294 wOBA, 25.5 K rate, 41.2 fly ball rate and 37.4 hard hit rate

Teheran is a pretty unappealing option by a lot of metric s but if we want to take a walk down Narrative Street, Teheran owns the Mets. The active hitters have a combined .140 average and a .210 wOBA with 3 home runs in 172 at-bats. Over the course of 143 innings pitched, Teheran has a 2.33 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP as well. The strikeouts probably won’t be there as much as you like but $7,600 isn’t that bad of a price for him. If you don’t buy into that narrative, Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto are the lefties to attack Teheran with. Both of these players are a bit more hit and miss lately so I’d side with Nimmo who has the higher ISO and wOBA over the course of the season. I look forward to the Conforto double dong game.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo

Mets Probable Starter – Corey Oswalt, RHP 

5.27 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 17.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .150 average, .264 wOBA, 15.2 K rate, 48.4 fly ball rate and 21.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .224 average, .285 wOBA, 19.4 K rate, 23.9 fly ball rate and 39.1 hard hit rate

Oswalt is frankly a bizarre pitcher at this stage of his career. The ERA is bloated but the WHIP is good and he’s not giving up a totally egregious hard hit rate. The fly balls are high to lefties but the average is low. The FIP seems to agree that he’s not a good pitcher, especially to lefties where it’s up to 5.60. The Braves got shutout last night so I’m leaning towards siding with the FIP in this case because they’re due to score runs. When that happens, they tend to come off the bats of the lefty hitters. The cheapest hitter is Johan Camargo but that’s not exactly where I would be looking today. I’d focus on the main hitters like Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies and Nick Markakis. All three of these hitters have a wOBA over .340 and Oswalt has really leaned on the four seam and sinker so far. Freeman and Markakis look the best from the xwOBA perspective since they both sit over .400. Finding the right one-off might be a little difficult and I would be more inclined to stack the Braves before anything else.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Freddie Freeman, full stack

Secondary Options – Ozzie Albies, Nick Markakis, Johan Camargo

Home Run Pick – Nick Markakis

DFS MLB – White Sox at Rays

White Sox Probable Starter – James Shields, RHP 

4.56 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 18.2 strikeout rate

vs LHH – .207 average, .299 wOBA, 19.2 K rate, 40.5 fly ball rate and 30.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .262 average, .328 wOBA, 17.3 K rate, 44.5 fly ball rate and 36.1 hard hit rate

I’d be willing to bet Jake Bauers is going to be reasonably popular in this spot but I’m not sure I’m going to go there. Sure, he has a .261 ISO against righties to go along with his .360 wOBA, but Shields has actually really dealt with lefty hitters pretty well this season. It’s so against the grain with what he’s done in the past that players have been slow to adjust to it. Shields has been throwing his changeup about 25 percent of the time to lefties and Bauers has a .299 xwOBA against that pitch. I have a feeling the grizzled old vet teaches the young buck a lesson or two today. I would actually be more inclined to take C.J. Cron as a one-off here. He’s close to the ISO and wOBA that Bauers is putting up and is about $600 cheaper. Shields has oddly given up the same amount of bombs to both sides of the plate in exactly the same number of innings pitched. I’ll take the side that has a higher average and is cheaper almost every time.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – C.J. Cron

Secondary Options – Jake Bauers

Rays Probable Starter – Bullpen Day 

I’m really starting to detest the bullpen days for Tampa. They played this style of game on Friday and wound up using six pitchers. If the White Sox batters are going see new pitchers that often, it makes things virtually impossible to feel comfortable with. It’s too easy for the Rays to throw a major monkey wrench into everything at any moment. A lot of the White Sox major hitters like Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu and Tim Anderson are dramatically different depending on what handedness they see. I would also caution players from looking at Hunter Wood‘s game log and seeing a 21 in his last appearance. Don’t play him even though he’s minimum price. You need him to basically throw two innings and strike out everyone just to get to 24 points. It really isn’t worth it. Maybe we get word about how the Rays plan to handle the day before the game but I wouldn’t bank on it.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu

Home Run Pick – C.J. Cron

DFS MLB – Angels at Indians

Angels Probable Starter – Deck McGuire, RHP

6.12 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 18.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .196 average, .299 wOBA, 13.2 K rate, 38.5 fly ball rate and 30.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .308 average, .480 wOBA, 22.6 K rate, 47.4 fly ball rate and 57.9 hard hit rate

I’m still kind of shocked that Felix Pena pitched so well yesterday but today is a new day. This was supposed to be a Tyler Skaggs start but he landed on the disabled list so McGuire will be making the start instead. His splits against lefties might not look terrible but the FIP is approaching 6.00. Cleveland is a lineup that is chock full of lefties and switch hitters but the big righty power bat they do have is Edwin Encarnacion. He has the highest ISO after the big two of Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez and has a .410 xwOBA against McGuire’s main two pitches. Since McGuire is just getting destroyed by righties, this might be the spot to deploy Encarnacion pretty comfortably. Ramirez and Lindor are obviously great plays in their own right and McGuire is a pitcher you want to target. If Rajai Davis makes the lineup, he might be a tough fade in cash games. He’s super cheap, hits righty, and comes with stolen base upside. This once again appears to be a smash spot for the Cleveland offense.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor

Secondary Options – Michael Brantley, bottom of the lineup value

Indians Probable Starter – Shane Bieber, RHP 

4.73 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 23.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .333 average, .410 wOBA, 22.9 K rate, 40.7 fly ball rate and 48.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .265 average, .278 wOBA, 23.1 K rate, 26.9 fly ball rate and 41.0 hard hit rate

I might just play both Shohei Ohtani and Kole Calhoun from the Angels so I don’t have to try and decide between them. The fact that Ohtani is cheaper despite the better stats and having a recent double dong game is weird to me but I’ll take it. By the metrics, Ohtani is the superior play. Bieber has thrown his four seam about 60 percent of the time to lefties and Ohtani mashes that pitch with a .477 xwOBA, tops among regular players on the Angels. He also has a 1.021 OPS, .338 ISO(higher than Mike Trout) and a .426 wOBA. Calhoun’s overall numbers lag behind but he switched his stance when he came back form injury and has seen excellent results. He leads the team in home runs in the past 30 days with nine and then has also hit for a .282 average, a .368 ISO and a ,421 wOBA. Most of the rest of the lineup is righty and the only righty I would think about is stacking Trout with these two lefties.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Kole Calhoun, Shohei Ohtani

Secondary Options – Three man stack with Trout

Home Run Pick – Shohei Ohtani

DFS MLB – Reds at Nationals

Reds Probable Starter – Luis Castillo, RHP 

4.98 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 22.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .290 average, .376 wOBA, 21.9 K rate, 39.6 fly ball rate and 44.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .227 average, .285 wOBA, 22.8 K rate, 29.4 fly ball rate and 34.4 hard hit rate

Castillo might be one of the more frustrating pitchers to figure out right now. He’s super talented, as he showed in his last start with nine strikeouts in seven innings against the Phillies. This is a super interesting spot for him because he’s so much worse against left handed hitters. So why wouldn’t I just write up the Nationals offense and be in love with them today? Well, for one thing, Bryce Harper is likely out after being hit with a pitch in the leg last night. Castillo’s changeup is a major weapon, making up about 33 percent of his pitches to lefties. The only lefty hitter with an xwOBA of above .302 against righty changeups is Adam Eaton. They are better against the sinker and the fastball, so the question is can Castillo use it enough to be effective? If the answer is yes, there’s reason to believe Castillo has an outside shot at pitching well. Juan Soto and Daniel Murphy are still very well in play too. I’m not as excited as I thought for the Nats hitters today. I think Castillo could be a VERY risky GPP play.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Daniel Murphy, Juan Soto

Secondary Options – Bryce Harper(GPP only if active), Adam Eaton

Nationals Probable Starter – Tanner Roark, RHP 

4.37 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 21.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .255 average, .329 wOBA, 24.6 K rate, 36.5 fly ball rate and 26.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .243 average, .306 wOBA, 17.5 K rate, 34.8 fly ball rate and 29.6 hard hit rate

So in these last two starts, Roark apparently remembered he’s a pretty talented pitcher. He’s gone a combined 15 innings, struck out 18 hitters and has given up one earned run. The Reds do rank 24th in ISO, even though the rest of the team metrics look pretty decent. It’s hard not to give Joey Votto a hard look at $3,600. Roark throws a lot of four seams and sinkers and Votto blasts those pitches with a .502 xwOBA and then he’s rocking a .402 wOBA. The downside continues to be his power numbers have dipped significantly. If you’re just looking for a home run, the odds are it’s not coming for Votto. That does make things more difficult to really rack up the points. Seeing how Roark has pitched in his past two starts really makes me pump the brakes with the Reds today. I think Votto and Eugenio Suarez(my word is he hot right now) are the only options from the offense.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Joey Votto

Secondary Options – Eugenio Suarez

Home Run Pick – Daniel Murphy

DFS MLB – Marlins at Phillies

Marlins Probable Starter – Wei-Yin Chen, LHP 

4.41 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 19.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .261 average, .362 wOBA, 19.8 K rate, 33.6 fly ball rate and 43.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .226 average, .311 wOBA, 18.5 K rate, 43.0 fly ball rate and 46.0 hard hit rate

Can I interest anyone in a Phillies stack today? I whiffed on them yesterday but that won’t be the case today. Full credit to Mitch(@DFSnDONUTS, seriously go follow him when you’re done reading this article. Don’t get distracted, finish breaking down the slate first) who is a very cool dude and full of fantasy information and stats. He made sure I looked at the numbers but Philly smacks Dan Straily. Perhaps this shouldn’t be a surprise since Philly is lefty heavy at the top and Rhys Hoskins is a premier power hitter. Speaking of Hoskins, in 10 at-bats against Straily, he has six hits and three home runs good for a .472 xwOBA. Even higher is Odubel Herrera at .509 and he’s only $3,200 today. The wOBA is a little lower for me but you can really go nuts by considering Cesar Hernandez or Carlos Santana. I would probably play Nick Williams at a cheaper price because he has a higher ISO and wOBA.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Odubel Herrera, Rhys Hoskins

Secondary Options – Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez, Nick Williams, Asdrubal Cabrera

Phillies Probable Starter – Aaron Nola, RHP 

2.35 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 25.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .207 average, .258 wOBA, 23.4 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 23.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .186 average, .225 wOBA, 28.1 K rate, 28.9 fly ball rate and 26.3 hard hit rate

$10,000 is a pretty solid price for Nola and he’ll likely be the chalk for today. That’s fine, I’ll hop right along with that in cash games because I think he might have the most “safety” of any pitcher today. I won’t be playing any Marlins today and can’t think of why I would.

Marlins Hitters to target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Home Run Pick – Odubel Herrera

DFS MLB – Cardinals at Pirates

Cardinals Probable Starter – Jack Flaherty, RHP 

3.49 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 29.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .205 average, .284 wOBA, 24.3 K rate, 32.8 fly ball rate and 32.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .215 average, .301 wOBA, 35.1 K rate, 41.7 fly ball rate and 34.9 hard hit rate

I haven’t fully figured this game out yet because there’s quite a bit of info that’s kind of butting heads. The Pirates will likely have a fair amount of righties in the lineup, which is appoint for Flaherty. Pittsburgh also strikes out at the second best rate in baseball against righty pitching, so it’s a tough matchup for Flaherty on that respect. The young starter for the Cardinals also has been a little sketchy in his past couple of starts, so he’s a hair tougher to trust. The price point is really tempting me as well. You can see the issues I’m having making up my mind on this one. I think where I land is this spot is better for tournaments. Flaherty can strike them out almost like the absolute best in baseball. The one hitter I might roll with as a one-off is Gregory Polanco. The strikeout rate is lower for that side of the plate and Polanco has a 99.2 average exit velocity over the course of five at-bats. I still might wind up with a GPP lineup with Flaherty in it.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Gregory Polanco, Francisco Cervelli

Pirates Probable Starter – Trevor Williams, RHP 

3.89 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 16.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .239 average, .302 wOBA, 11.6 K rate, 36.4 fly ball rate and 29.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .225 average, .302 wOBA, 21.5 K rate, 39.9 fly ball rate and 32.5 hard hit rate

This could be a really bad day for Trevor Williams. If we just look at his career numbers against the hitters from St. Louis, four regular hitters have an xwOBA of at least .466 and three of them are over .500. Those four are Matt Carpenter, Jose Martinez, Marcell Ozuna and Paul DeJong and all four coincidentally hit the four seam/sinker combo well with a minimum of a .383 xwOBA. The splits are about even for Williams so I’m not worried about the handedness of the hitter from the Cardinals. Carpenter is starting to get some love because he’s tortured the Pirates in the first two games of this series. The three righties will go under-owned which makes things perfect for a tournament stack. Ozuna is the only one of the hitters that has a wOBA under .325 but he’s shaking off the slump that cost him much of this season. .

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Options – Three righties, probably in a stack

Home Run Pick – Gregory Polanco

DFS MLB – Rockies at Brewers

Rockies Probable Starter – Jon Gray, RHP

4.99 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 27.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .258 average, .336 wOBA, 29.6 K rate, 31.8 fly ball rate and 38.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .261 average, .296 wOBA, 25.8 K rate, 23.8 fly ball rate and 30.7 hard hit rate

I don’t say this often but the metrics in front of us for the pitcher don’t matter all that much. The Rockies sent Gray down to AAA and he’s made three starts since that point. Those starts have accumulated 21.2 innings with only giving up four earned runs. The strikeouts have left a little to be desired in those starts but it’s hard to be mad about the length he’s been giving you. Milwaukee is the fifth easiest team to strike out and Gray should be able to take advantage of.  Maybe this is the first time since he’s been back that he’ll strike out 10 or more. If anything, stick with the Brewers lefties. They have the best shot at getting to Gray and they can do it with power as well. Eric Thames and Travis Shaw are over .200 in ISO and Mike Moustakas won’t be far behind. Gray so far this season has either had it or not. So if you wan to gamble on him not having it, I’d stack the lefty Brewers hitters.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Lefty hitter stack

Secondary Options – Travis Shaw, Eric Thames, Mike Moustakas(all GPP)

Brewers Probable Starter – Wade Miley, LHP 

1.53 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 14.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .182 average, .275 wOBA, 14.3 K rate, 22.2 fly ball rate and 61.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .198 average, .245 wOBA, 14.3 K rate, 25.8 fly ball rate and 41.2 hard hit rate

I don’t care what these splits say, I’m banking on Nolan Arenado being better than Wade Miley in 2018. If you’ve been around this year, you probably know that Nado in a hitter’s park against a lefty pitcher is one of the safest bets for an offensive player we can have. The OPS is 1.378, the ISO is .461 and the wOBA is an absurd .557. Now, before anyone comes int the mentions at yells about Coors Field at me, he is worse away from Coors. He’s down at a 1.189 OPS, .375 ISO and a .484 wOBA which would still have me running to him at one of the lowest prices we get him at on FanDuel($4,300). Trevor Story has been hot these past few games so you have to like him as well with a .295 ISO and a .407 wOBA. Ian Desmond and DJ LeMahieu are also fine options with wOBA’s over .365 against lefties.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story

Secondary Options – DJ LeMahieu, Ian Desmond

Home Run Pick – Nolan Arenado

DFS MLB – Royals at Twins

Royals Probable Starter – Danny Duffy, LHP 

4.50. ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 20.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .253 average, .270 wOBA, 21.9 K rate, 31.9 fly ball rate and 37.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .256 average, .343 wOBA, 20.2 K rate, 45.9 fly ball rate and 37.8 hard hit rate

One of the only ways I would feel comfortable by not throwing Nola out there tonight is pitching Duffy instead. He’s pitched 19 innings against the Twins this year and has given up a grand total of two earned runs. Duffy also sees his ERA shift massively from home to road. At his home park, it’s 6.48 in 50 innings. On the road, it’s 3.29 over the course of 82 innings pitched. He’s only given up one homer to a lefty all season so don’t get cute with a lefty hitter. Miguel Sano is really the only true righty hitter that you have to worry about. Even then, he has a strikeout rate against lefty pitching at 38.7 percent. Duffy is well worth the lot tonight.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco

Twins Probable Starter – Ervin Santana, RHP 

6.10 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 12.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .276 average, .390 wOBA, 9.1 K rate, 57.7 fly ball rate and 38.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .385 average, .501 wOBA, 21.4 K rate, 50.0 fly ball rate and 40.0 hard hit rate

I’d heavily consider a trio of righties starting with Whit Merrifield, who I normally don’t even think about against a righty pitcher. It doesn’t appear the Santana is all the way back from a finger injury yet. The ISO and pitch data don’t look especially good for Merrifield but until Santana proves he’s sort of on the way back, it’s hard to ignore how bad he’s been against righties in a very limited sample size. I’d really take a look at Salvador Perez with his .198 ISO and Jorge Bonifacio just as a super cheap righty towards the bottom of the lineup. Using Royals hitters isn’t always the fun thing to do but they’ve got a chance to make some noise today. They’re also all pretty cheap with Merrifield being the most expensive at $3,300.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Whit Merrifield

Secondary Options – Salvador Perez, Jorge Bonifacio

Home Run Pick – Whit Merrfield

DFS MLB – Padres at Cubs

Padres Probable Starter – Joey Lucchesi, LHP 

3.74 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 24.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .258 average, .303 wOBA, 23.6 K rate, 8.9 fly ball rate and 26.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .229 average, .318 wOBA, 24.1 K rate, 38.3 fly ball rate and 42.9 hard hit rate

The two hitters I look at the most when a lefty is on the mound are Willson Contreras and Javier Baez. The both have ISO’s of at least .200 and wOBA’s over .360. Today, Contreras rates a good bit better via xwOBA(.458 to .350) but Baez is the better player and is having the better season. Contreras is going to be a little easier to fit salary wise but I’m not sure I’d jam both of these guys in. Lucchesi has shown some ability at the major league level. If you wanted to try and get cute, Anthony Rizzo has homered in consecutive games and you know a hot streak is coming for him at some point. You just have to ignore the .080 ISO and .269 wOBA he’s currently sitting at on the season. This is definitely not a spot that I’ll be all in on Chicago unless something changes and the wind is blowing out to a major degree.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Javier Baez, Willson Contreras

Secondary Options – Anthony Rizzo(GPP), Addison Russell

Cubs Probable Starter – Jon Lester, LHP 

3.22 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 18.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .252 average, .351 wOBA, 19.3 K rate, 38.3 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .228 average, .302 wOBA, 18.7 K rate, 37.6 fly ball rate and 34.7 hard hit rate

I get so hyped up when I see Jon Lester on the mound. If you replace the name Mike with Brian and  It’s Hump Day with It’s Jon Lester Day, this is basically me, Brain and Matt every Lester slate this year.

It’s starting to work too because in his last five starts, he’s given up 4, 1, 8, 3 and 4 runs. It’s really unfortunate that I can’t trust the Padres lineup enough to do anything more than a mini two man stack. The only two hitters that I would feel like had a chance at success today are Hunter Renfroe and Christian Villanueva. Renfroe is a bit safer and still has an ISO of .228 and a wOBA of .359. Villanueva is much higher in both categories but is striking out basically once in every three at-bats against lefties. That’s less than ideal and he can only be a tournament play. I very sadly think Lester holds the regression at bay this start. That just means there’s more to come in a better matchup.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Hunter Renfroe

Secondary Options – Christian Villanueva(elite GPP)

Home Run Pick – Javier Baez

DFS MLB – Sample FanDuel Lineup

P – Aaron Nola 

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C/1B – Jose Martinez

2B – DJ LeMahieu 

3B – Nolan Arenado 

SS – Paul DeJong 

OF – Shohei Ohtani, Kole Calhoun, Odubel Herrera

Utility – Hunter Renfroe 

C’mon, I can’t let a Jon Lester slate go by without playing at least one hitter against him, right? Getting Nola for only 20 percent of the total budget is a huge help in building a lineup today and he’s going to be chalky. It just is what it is, for better or worse in cash games. We have three small two man stacks in this one but I really like the look of it. Lefty hitters against Shane Bieber have been money, Wade Miley is due to get beat up by some righties and the Cards are pitch data and career xwOBA plays. Top it off with a one-off with Odubel Herrera and we’re in a good spot.

Pitching Options 

High End – Aaron Nola, Jon Gray

Mid-Range – Danny Duffy, Jack Flaherty, Julio Teheran

Punts – Luis Castillo

Stacks to Consider – Cleveland Indians, Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals, Colorado Rockies, Kansas City Royals

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.