MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Sunday, August 5th Early Slates
MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Sunday, August 5th Early Slates
Welcome to a Sunday edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm or two might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.
Before we go MLB DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:
- The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
- Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
- In this DFS MLB Bargain Bin Quick Hits version, I’ll suggest players that are typically value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). Naturally, check final pricing before making your lineup decisions, as I am not listing salaries in this edition.
- This is not a position-by-position breakdown, but rather, I’m just identifying games where I think there’s value players in potentially favorable fantasy spots.
- The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on Sunday’s early slates!
MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Sunday, August 5th Early Slates Quick Hits
- The Angels roll out the inconsistent Deck McGuire to open Sunday’s game, which could certainly lead to quite a few Indians stacks. McGuire has really been abused by right-handed hitters, as evidenced by the .480 wOBA and absurd 56.3 percent hard contact he’s allowed them over a 62-plate appearance sample. The only issue is finding what would be considered true bargain righty bats in the Cleveland lineup, but Yan Gomes, Rajai Davis, Brandon Guyer and Erik Gonzalez would all fit the bill if they’re in action.
- It’s the opposite story with Indians starter Shane Bieber, who’s been walloped by lefty hitters for a .410 wOBA and 46.9 percent hard contact. Kole Calhoun, Shohei Ohtani, Francisco Arcia and Luis Valbuena would be among those worthy of consideration, with the fact that Cleveland relievers have allowed an MLB-high .460 wOBA, 8.64 ERA and seven homers to lefty bats at home over the last month of play making them all the more attractive.
- The Braves’ Julio Teheran has particularly had trouble with left-handed hitters on the road, where he’s allowed them a .345 wOBA and 42.0 percent hard contact. Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil and the switch-hitting Jose Reyes can all be considered for tournaments.
- The White Sox’s James Shields faces one of his old squads in an emotional weekend where he was just commemorated as a member of the 2008 Rays team that won the AL pennant. Shields has actually been much better than his ugly 4-13 record would suggest, but one bargain Rays bat who’s hit him hard is Carlos Gomez (.455 average over 12 plate appearances). Shields has been hit harder by righty bats in general this season, so Matt Duffy, C.J. Cron, Willy Adames and even Jesus Sucre can all be considered if in the lineup.
- The Reds’ Luis Castillo has been much less effective on the road, where he’s allowed a massive .426 wOBA (incl. eight homers) and a 48.9 percent hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Adam Eaton, Juan Soto (where affordable), Daniel Murphy, Matt Adams, Wilmer Difo and Matt Wieters would all be worthy affordable Nats bats to consider.
- On the other side, Tanner Roark *appears* to have turned things around with two very good starts in a row, but he’s regressed in the past, and in a big way at times. To hedge, I’d roll out some left-handed or switch-hitting Reds, as Roark has allowed a .379 wOBA to that handedness at home. Mason Williams and Preston Tucker would be two options that should be affordable, as well as Tucker Barnhart.
- Another popular stack Sunday could well be the Phillies, as Dan Straily takes the mound for the Marlins. The right-hander has allowed a .307 average and .396 wOBA to left-handed hitters on the road, so the switch-hitting Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez and Asdrubal Cabrera are all in play, as is Nick Williams. Also bear in mind that the right-handed Maikel Franco has enjoyed plenty of success versus Straily (.438 average over 18 plate appearances) and that Odubel Herrera and Rhys Hoskins are also excellent options even though they’ll likely be priced above value range.
MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Sunday, August 5th All Slates Quick Hits (cont.)
The Cardinals’
has been particularly hit hard by right-handed hitters on the road (.359 wOBA, 39.2 percent hard contact), so the likes of
or
, Jody Mercer,
,
and
would be worthy of consideration, as would
where affordable. Also worth noting that Cards relievers have allowed 5.59 ERA to righty bats on the road in the last month.
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- While Pittsburgh’s Trevor Williams‘ numbers are solid overall against either handedness, it’s worth looking at the fact that multiple bargain Cardinals (Yairo Munoz, Greg Garcia, Jose Martinez and Paul DeJong) have successful track records against him, as does non-value bat Matt Carpenter.
- The Rockies’ Jon Gray‘s weakest split is lefty bats on the road, where they’ve touched him for a .370 wOBA, whopping 36.0 percent line-drive rate and 45.5 percent hard contact. Unsurprisingly, Travis Shaw and Christian Yelich already have had some success against him in the past, although Yelich may not be value-priced on all sites. In addition to them, Mike Moustakas shapes up as an appealing option, with Eric Thames naturally also worth considering if he’s cheap enough.
- The Brewers’ Wade Miley has been very good through his first few starts, so I’m not overly targeting him Sunday. However, worth noting Carlos Gonzalez (.381 average over 21 plate appearances) and Chris Iannetta (.375 average over 11 plate appearances) have thrived against him in the past.
- The Royals’ Danny Duffy has actually been a much better pitcher on the road, with an ERA over three full runs lower than what he yields at home. Right-handed hitters do tend to have success against him, however (.324 wOBA, including 10 homers, allowed to righty bats on the road), so Miguel Sano, Logan Forsythe, Jorge Polanco and Mitch Garver would be among affordable Twins of interest, along with any others that might find their way into the lineup.
- The Twins’ Ervin Santana has encountered quite a bit of trouble in his first two starts, and although he has the talent to settle in eventually, he certainly appears vulnerable for the time being. Thus far, both sides of the plate have given him trouble, so all affordable Royals bats can be considered. The Minnesota bullpen has also had its share of troubles over the last week-plus, so the getting could be good in the later innings as well. Among affordable KC bats, Whit Merrifield owns a .357 average against him over 15 plate appearances, while Alex Gordon has two career homers off the right-hander.
- The Cubs’ Jon Lester isn’t someone I normally target too much, but he does seem to have a problem with same-handed matchups (.362 wOBA, .229 ISO allowed to lefty bats). Eric Hosmer (.313 average against him over 19 plate appearances) is an option to consider, as is Jose Pirela from the other side (.500 average over eight PAs). Travis Jankowski is another left-handed bat that should come cheap.
Stay tuned for all of your DFS needs and tons of info for the upcoming fantasy football season!