Dyche, Burnley face tough task to match success of 2017-18

Burnley, coming off a spectacular season and their first European match since the ’60s, face another tough test to stay in the Premier League in 2018-19.

The first leg of Burnley’s Europa League second round qualifying tie against Aberdeen last week was the club’s first match in European competition since the Inter Cities Fairs’ cup of 1966-67, just reward for a superb 2017-18 season in which the Clarets defied preseason predictions of relegation to finish seventh.

While Sean Dyche’s side may well be the Premier League’s most compelling underdog story since Leicester in 2015-16, however, there will be little time to admire their past achievements. The hard work of ensuring another season of survival in the top flight has already begun. And the formula for success, one suspects, will look more or less the same.

The Clarets didn’t dominate possession like Manchester City, or press like Liverpool or even counter-attack like Leicester. They played a style that, while not without its quirks, mostly resembled a claret-colored parked bus. They didn’t play that way out of a deep-seated desire to bore the fans, but because they don’t have the talent to go toe-to-toe with most other sides in the league. They had, first and foremost, to be hard to beat, and to defend as though their Premier League survival depended on it.

Dyche’s system forces opponents to attack through the middle of the pitch, where Burnley are better able to absorb pressure and clear the ball. This ability to weather the storm is why although the Clarets conceded the sixth most shots on target of any team in the league last season, they conceded the fifth-fewest goals. No Clarets player is exempt from defending, but center-backs James Tarkowski and Ben Mee, along with goalkeeper Nick Pope, promoted to first choice after an injury to Tom Heaton, were particularly impressive.

There’s perhaps no better evidence of that than Burnley’s xG against number. They conceded 13.16 goals less than expected based on the quality of shots they allowed last season, second only Manchester United. While the Clarets’ exaggerated defensive style probably skews those numbers somewhat, they remain more vulnerable than most to the whims of the finishing gods. Not that this is reason to criticize them, given the status of the club relative to their Premier League rivals.

Burnley flashed slightly more attacking flair last season than they did in 2016-17, but it was, once more, the strength of their defense that allowed them to overcome their shoe-string budget. To put their financial situation in perspective, Manchester United’s Alexis Sanchez takes home more in a week than the entire Burnley side. This could also be why Dyche has played down expectations, even after last year’s fantastic season. Despite the £120 million payoff for staying up, Burnley have yet to add any reinforcements this summer.

If the club are going to compete in Europe, this could prove significant. The Premier League’s mid-table has strengthened this season, and another top eight finish is likely to require not just a similarly resilient defense, but also a deeper squad. The Clarets can ill-afford a repeat of last winter’s 11-match winless stretch.

Burnley are a club with a uniquely local identity (following last season’s success, fans renamed a pub after their gravelly-voiced manager) amid the ocean of money that is the Premier League. Dyche is a tactically astute enough manager to marshal his players to safety at the very least, but mid-table seems more likely than another run at Europe. Then again, who thought Burnley would make a run to Europe in the first place?