DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Monday, August 6

Welcome into the Monday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have a nice sized 10 game slate tonight so let’s get down to business.

Sunday wasn’t too bad for us in DFS MLB as we put up some solid scores, but it was dicey as far as the cash line went. Aaron Nola was one of the biggest busts of the day because he didn’t strikeout anyone. I wound up playing Jack Flaherty with some trepidation and he actually doubled up Nola in points but I didn’t quite have the offense to go with it. If you played Danny Duffy off my recommendation, I can say for sure I missed on that one. I had a lineup with him and that one crashed and burned early. We’re onto the next day and Monday is a pretty fun slate.

DFS MLB – Reds at Mets

Reds Probable Starter – Homer Bailey, RHP 

5.87 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 15.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .267 average, .362 wOBA, 15.8 K rate, 38.8 fly ball rate and 34.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .292 average, .357 wOBA, 14.4 K rate, 34.8 fly ball rate and 50.0 hard hit rate

I have no idea what has gotten into Bailey since he’s come back from the disabled list because he’s pitched 14.2 innings and given up just four earned runs while striking out 14 hitters. He’s done that against the Cardinals and the Tigers so it’s not exactly like those are powerhouse offenses, but neither are the Mets. FanDuel hasn’t treated him like he’s anything but a terrible pitcher still because the price is just $6,200. That’s enough that I’ll take a shot and likely hate myself by the third inning when he’s getting walloped by the Mets offense.

It’s been a super small sample size, but in 16 at-bats with the team Austin Jackson is destroying righties with an OPS over 1.000 and a wOBA over .440. His price is still low as well but I don’t know how much weight you want to put in a 16 at-bat sample. This might seem weird but I don’t think this side of the game is cash viable. If you think Bailey is a fraud(he likely is), I’d go with Jackson and mix of Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo and Wilmer Flores. Nimmo and Conforto both have a wOBA over .360 against righties so far this year.

Mets Hitters to Target

Elite Options – None in cash

Secondary Options – Two/four man stack with Jackson and Nimmo being the top options

Mets Probable Starter – Noah Syndergaard, RHP 

2.98 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 25.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .266 average, .293 wOBA, 26.1 K rate, 26.7 fly ball rate and 22.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .255 average, .303 wOBA, 24.7 K rate, 29.7 fly ball rate and 23.0 hard hit rate

The historical numbers for Syndergaard against the Reds don’t look good for the Cincinnati offense. They have a combined .209 xwOBA against the man know as Thor. Here’s the rub – Syndergaard has only hit eight or more strikeouts in a game three times out of 14 starts. Even at a depressed price point of $9,400, he wouldn’t be worth it for five or six strikeouts. As a team, the Reds have a bottom 10 strikeout rate so it doesn’t appear that there’s a huge amount of upside for Syndergaard. There’s also nothing in his profile that would suggest we should attack him with the Reds offense. Joey Votto is the only hitter that rates well against the sinker/four seam combo that Syndergaard throws but do you really want to pay $3,500 for Votto against him? I’m not going to do that unless it’s a deep tournament.

Reds Hitters to Target

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Eugenio Suarez in GPP’s only

Home Run Pick – Wilmer Flores

DFS MLB – Twins at Indians

Twins Probable Starter – Kyle Gibson, RHP 

3.47 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 23.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .234 average, .289 wOBA, 20.6 K rate, 34.5 fly ball rate and 39.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .209 average, .289 wOBA, 26.2 K rate, 27.5 fly ball rate and 37.4 hard hit rate

Gibson is a better pitcher than most realize and he’s seen some success against the Indians in three starts this year. Two have been quality starts and one was 5.2 innings of two run ball. This spot might be more dangerous for Gibson because his last start was against the Indians. Seeing how the Cleveland offense is one of the best in the league, facing them in consecutive starts could be rough. I’m still not sure that I would go much further into the Indians offense other than Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor. These are two of the best players in baseball and can overcome any matchup. Lindor has the low marks in ISO and wOBA …of .286 and .375. Those would be numbers that would jump out at us if it wasn’t for Ramirez being up at .362 and .449. Gibson is a very risky pitching option tonight if you’re feeling froggy but understand that it can blow up in your face. We’ll see how much of a priority this game is as we roll along.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor

Secondary Options – Michael Brantley, Jason Kipnis, Edwin Encarnacion

Indians Probable Starter – Trevor Bauer, RHP 

2.34 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 30.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .202 average, .264 wOBA, 29.4 K rate, 34.4 fly ball rate and 35.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .217 average, .267 wOBA, 31.9 K rate, 34.0 fly ball rate and 36.6 hard hit rate

I’m not going to be chasing Twins hitters tonight but I’m also not too excited for Bauer. He’s still expensive and the results have been a little uneven since the All-Star break. The only game he’s exceeded seven strikeouts was against Pittsburgh. Let me tell you as a Pirates fan, that game was one where manager Clint Hurdle rolled out a terrible lineup. On top of that, Starling Marte left the game early because he was hit by a pitch. Minnesota is right next to the Reds in strikeout rate so paying $11,500 for him may not be the best idea. The first two games haven’t been the most exciting for fantasy, but we have some better spots on the way.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Eddie Rosario, Logan Morrison

Home Run Pick – Francisco Lindor

DFS MLB – Cardinals at Marlins

Cardinals Probable Starter – Luke Weaver, RHP 

4.75 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 21.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .287 average, .357 wOBA, 19.1 K rate, 34.9 fly ball rate and 34.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .233 average, .288 wOBA, 23.3 K rate, 38.1 fly ball rate and 34.8 hard hit rate

If you’re looking for some cheap hitters to balance out some more expensive options, look no further than the two main lefties from the Marlins. Justin Bour would lead the charge for me as he’s homered three times in his last four games. When a bat like his is hot and going against a pitcher who has given up 10 bombs to lefties, you pay attention. It also helps that he’s still $2,800 and has an xwOBA of .400 against the main two pitches from Weaver. His batting average looks terrible but he’s still tied for the team lead in ISO at .233. Derek Dietrich doesn’t carry that same type of upside but he’s $2,500 and has a .353 wOBA against righties. J.T. Realmuto is always in play since he’s a good hitter but Weaver has been tough against righties. There’s probably going to be better options at $3,200. Weaver is pitching for his spot in the rotation so maybe he jumps up and surprises with a good start tonight.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Justin Bour, Derek Dietrich

Secondary Options – J.T. Realmuto

Marlins Probable Starter – Wei-Yin Chen 

5.86 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 16.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .216 average, .252 wOBA, 27.6 K rate, 32.1 fly ball rate and 35.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .287 average, .374 wOBA, 14.1 K rate, 44.1 fly ball rate and 32.3 hard hit rate

The Marlins noticed how major the home/road splits are for Chen because they pushed him back so he didn’t have to pitch in Philly and could start tonight. In 45.1 innings at home, Chen has a 2.18  ERA and is only surrendering a .258 wOBA, including just three homers. Having said all of that, I’m not going to use him because the Cards are pretty good against lefty pitching.

I head to the same person almost every time in Jedd Gyorko because he’s usually cheap and he’s a lefty killer. He’s still under $3,000 and Chen throws his fastball to righty hitters 56 percent of the time. Gyorko has a .563 xwOBA against that pitch and also rocks a 1.054 OPS, .302 ISO and a .441 wOBA. Chen is clearly worse against righties and even in a poor hitter’s park is worth the price. We also have the Marcell Ozuna Revenge Game and he sports a .500 xwOBA against lefty fastballs. He’s been dealing with a shoulder injury but has also seen better results at the plate as well. The one hitter I wouldn’t use is Matt Carpenter. He just torched the Pirates but Chen has limited lefties this season. A minimum punt could be Greg Garcia. He’s striking out once in every three at-bats but also has a .300 ISO against lefties.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jedd Gyorko, Marcell Ozuna

Secondary Options – Yairo Munoz, Harrison Bader, Greg Garcia

Home Run Pick –  Marcell Ozuna

DFS MLB – Mariners at Rangers

Mariners Probable Starter – Wade LeBlanc, LHP 

3.95 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 19.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .287 average, .346 wOBA, 20.4 K rate, 44.6 fly ball rate and 30.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .241 average, .300 wOBA, 19.0 K rate, 41.2 fly ball rate and 32.7 hard hit rate

Other than a start against the White Sox, LeBlanc hasn’t been quite as sharp lately. Now he’s going into the Texas heat and is reverse splits so he’s worse against lefty hitters. His HR/9 ratio is 1.34 to righties but it’s 1.71 to lefties. The Texas stack is more appealing than some may realize since there’s a section of players that shy away from the lefty/lefty matchup. It seems like a nightly sentence, but I can’t believe that I might play Rougned Odor against a lefty at $4,000. He’s just been unbelievable for the past couple of weeks and has a .176 ISO and a .374 wOBA against lefties so far. Joey Gallo is always a major risk but he has a .337 ISO in the split. He’s too expensive for my blood but perhaps my favorite hitter is still on the right side of the plate. Robinson Chirinos carries a .267 ISO and his strikeout rate of 34.2 percent is mitigated a bit by LeBlanc’s mediocre strikeout rate.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Robinson Chirinos, Rougned Odor, Jurickson Profar, Shin-soo Choo

Secondary Options – Adrian Beltre, Joey Gallo, Elvis Andrus

Rangers Probable Starter – Martin Perez, LHP 

6.50 ERA, 1.97 WHIP and 13.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .308 average, .372 wOBA, 14.6 K rate, 21.9 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .361 average, .434 wOBA, 13.4 K rate, 32.8 fly ball rate and 47.0 hard hit rate

Whew, this game could really shootout. All the metrics for Perez are even worse at home, including a .391 average against and a .446 wOBA. We’re going to see some great spots for the offensive players here coming up but Nelson Cruz is in the running for one of the top plays of the slate. He’s already a lefty masher with a .378 ISO and a .417 wOBA against lefties overall. Perez throws a sinker or changeup 68 percent of the time and Cruz possesses an enormous .685 xwOBA against those two pitches. There’s not a box Cruz doesn’t check tonight and he doesn’t get the Coors Price Bump(patent pending). The other big name righties of Jean Segura and Mitch Haniger don’t rate as well by the numbers but Perez has been so poor this year, I’d be willing to ignore that. I used that three man stack a couple nights ago with some bad results but I’m ready to go back to it tonight. Kyle Seager is an awfully attractive fourth man in the stack because Perez stinks against lefties as well. Seager is respectable against southpaws with a .333 wOBA and a .382 xwOBA against the pitch mix.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nelson Cruz one-off, three man stack

Secondary Options – Add Kyle Seager or maybe even Dee Gordon as the fourth man

Home Run Pick – Nelson Cruz, Robinson Chirinos and Jurickson Profar

DFS MLB – Yankees at White Sox

Yankees Probable Starter – Lance Lynn, RHP 

4.89 ERA, 1.61 WHIP and 21.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .293 average, .377 wOBA, 14.1 K rate, 21.6 fly ball rate and 41.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .243 average, .316 wOBA, 26.7 K rate, 31.6 fly ball rate and 33.9 hard hit rate

This will be Lynn’s first start as a Yankee and it’s not exactly the best spot for him. He struggles against lefty hitters and he also doesn’t strike them out a very high rate. That’s not good considering three of the top four hitters are lefties and have an ISO of at least .169. The low mark belongs to Yolmer Sanchez while Yoan Moncada and Daniel Palka are both over .200. If you can’t miss these two bats, they have the power to put the ball far into the stands. Lynn has given up the same amount of home runs to each side of the plate so Avisail Garcia stands out as well. His xwOBA against the main pitch mix is .425 and his ISO is .238. Moncada is inexplicably up at $3,700, despite having one game in his last 11 in double digits for points. I would be more likely to play the other three hitters who are all under $3,000. The White Sox have the fourth highest strikeout rate against righties in baseball so there’s always a case to be made to play a pitcher against them. I just probably won’t go that way personally.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Yolmer Sanchez, Daniel Palka

Secondary Options – Avisail Garcia, Yoan Moncada

White Sox Probable Starter – Dylan Covey, RHP 

5.57 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 15.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .277 average, .346 wOBA, 18.8 K rate, 30.3 fly ball rate and 39.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .270 average, .312 wOBA, 11.3 K rate, 20.0 fly ball rate and 34.2 hard hit rate

Covey has shown ability here and there but it’s hard to see a path to success for him against the Yankees, even though they’re missing Aaron Judge. I would prioritize the lefties and that means hitters like Didi Gregorius, Greg Bird and Brett Gardner. Aaron Hicks is in the mix since Covey has been bad overall but he’s typically better against lefties. New York doesn’t look great from the pitch data as Hicks has the highest mark at .377 for the xwOBA. Gregorius is my favorite play from the Yanks tonight as he strikes out half the time that Bird does and has the higher ISO. Gardner would also be a nice cash game play since he’ll sit atop the dangerous lineup. I wonder if the Yankees go a little under-owned given the spots of other offenses on the slate. If it seems like that’s the case, the three or four man stack of lefty hitters will look especially enticing.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Didi Gregorius, Brett Gardner

Secondary Options – Aaron Hicks, Greg Bird

Home Run Pick- Yoan Moncada

DFS MLB – Cubs at Royals

Cubs Probable Starter – Cole Hamels, LHP 

4.53 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 23.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .273 average, .339 wOBA, 18.2 K rate, 23.5 fly ball rate and 32.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .250 average, .345 wOBA, 24.4 K rate, 34.1 fly ball rate and 46.4 hard hit rate

Hamels was fantastic in his Cubs debut against the Pirates and there’s reason to believe that he’ll do it again tonight. The only hitter that appears dangerous is Whit Merrifield but you’re probably relying on his .208 ISO. He typically has stolen base upside even against lefties but Willson Contreras rates well in pop times and exchange via Statcast. Every other hitter in the lineup has a wOBA of .323 or lower and the Royals have a little bit of a reputation of being tough to strikeout. That doesn’t hold true against lefty pitching because they have a top five rate in baseball at 23.6 percent. It’s a little terrifying to use Hamels because of the pedestrian metrics and he’s given up 22 homers to righties but the Royals are in the tank. He represents a $3,000 discount over Bauer and is well worth that difference.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez

Royals Probable Starter – Jakob Junis, RHP 

5.12 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 20.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .278 average, .360 wOBA, 18.2 K rate, 41.8 fly ball rate and 40.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .249 average, .337 wOBA, 23.3 K rate, 38.2 fly ball rate and 41.7 hard hit rate

Today might be a test in how much you believe in pitch data and xwOBA against a certain pitch. All Junis does is give up home runs. He’s served up 11 to lefties and 15 to righties, leading to a 1.82 and 2.19 HR/9 to each handedness. Junis throws a four seam, sinker and slider more than anything else. To lefties, it’s more of the fastball mix to go with a slider 35 percent of the time. Kyle Schwarber and Anthony Rizzo are at a .399 xwOBA at the minimum but Schwarber is awful against the slider. Javier Baez and Schwarber are at .220 and .222 against the slider which gives me some hesitation here. Baez would see the slider 45 percent of the time as a righty and that doesn’t fully seem worth paying up for. Rizzo has five homers in his last 10 games and he might be my favorite play form this game.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Anthony Rizzo, Jason Heyward

Secondary Options – Kyle Schwarber, Javier Baez, Ian Happ

Home Run Pick – Anthony Rizzo

DFS MLB – Pirates at Rockies

Pirates Probable Starter – Joe Musgrove, RHP 

3.63 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 18.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .276 average, .335 wOBA, 16.2 K rate, 28.3 fly ball rate and 32.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .236 average, .284 wOBA, 21.1 K rate, 38.3 fly ball rate and 32.4 hard hit rate

Welcome to the chalk portion of the evening. The Colorado lefties are almost surely going to be the most popular hitters in cash games and it seems like a mistake to not have a couple if you’re playing that format. The cheapest(and I’m guessing highest own player on the slate) could be David Dahl. The Rockies have recalled the young man and he was smashing righty pitching before his fractured foot. Musgrove throws a four seam, sinker and changeup mix 74 percent of the time and Dahl leads the team in xwOBA against that mix at .432. Hopefully Colorado puts him in the lineup tonight. He might take the place of Carlos Gonzalez, who is an elite option himself seeing how Musgrove struggles with lefties. Charlie Blackmon is only $4,300 and he also feels like a must in cash games with his .248 ISO against righty pitching. If a player is lefty and in the Colorado lineup tonight, he’s probably worth a look.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl, Carlos Gonzalez

Secondary Options –Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story

Rockies Probable Starter – Kyle Freeland, LHP 

3.20 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 18.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .203 average, .267 wOBA, 27.8 K rate, 34.6 fly ball rate and 28.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .251 average, .311 wOBA, 16.1 K rate, 33.0 fly ball rate and 32.4 hard hit rate

Freeland could gain some steam as a sleeper pitcher tonight but I’m not sure I’m going there myself. He has pitched better at Coors with a 2.45 ERA and giving up a .304 wOBA. However, a 4.45 FIP and a 4.51 xFIP would point us towards he’s due for regression. The Bucs played Elias Diaz and Francisco Cervelli in the same lineup on Saturday and they could go that route again tonight. If they do, both players sit over a .490 xwOBA against the pitch mix and Diaz only has an 8.2 strikeout rate. That gives him a bit of a safer floor to go along with his .441 wOBA and .237 ISO. David Freese missed Sunday’s game but if he’s back in, he’s a great option. He’s been hot and sits at a .482 xwOBA and a .345 wOBA overall. This game is right up near the Mariners and Rangers game for a game stack, with this one probably being a good deal more popular in cash.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Walk With Elias, Francisco Cervelli, David Freese(if active)

Secondary Options – Sean Rodriguez, Jordy Mercer, Starling Marte

Home Run Pick – David Dahl, David Freese, Elias Diaz and Charlie Blackmon(I think this game scores the most runs on the night)

DFS MLB – Phillies at Diamondbacks

Phillies Probable Starter – Jake Arrieta, RHP 

3.32 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 17.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .267 average, .326 wOBA, 17.3 K rate, 30.9 fly ball rate and 29.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .228 average, .279 wOBA, 18.0 K rate, 23.9 fly ball rate and 28.0 hard hit rate

I wouldn’t do it in cash, but Arrieta is worth a shot in tournaments tonight. His price is low and Arizona is a surprisingly good matchup for righty pitchers when the game is in Arizona. They rank no higher than 18th in average, OPS, ISO, wOBA or wRC+. They also strikeout at the sixth highest rate in the majors so maybe that helps raise the ceiling a little bit for Arrieta. Other than the Padres smoking him a couple starts ago(just like his former teammate Jon Lester on Sunday), Arrieta has been hot. The other four starts in his last five games have gone for at least 40 points. If you want to attack Arrieta, it’s probably got to be the lefties. David Peralta would be the most attractive option since he leads the team in wOBA at .396 and in ISO at .238. I just don’t have a ton of interest in the Diamondbacks against a pitcher that can go seven innings while giving up one run and striking out three.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – David Peralta, Paul Goldschmidt

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Zack Godley, RHP 

4.46 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 23.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .259 average, .335 wOBA, 21.1 K rate, 22.5 fly ball rate and 34.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .247 average, .313 wOBA, 26.3 K rate, 32.2 fly ball rate and 37.7 hard hit rate

Godley is another intriguing route to take tonight because of three main factors. First, his ERA is a full 2.00 runs better at home. The xFIP and FIP lineup almost exactly so I’m inclined to buy into the ERA at face value. The second factor is the Phillies are no better than average in the main offensive categories that we always look at and they have a 26.4 percent strikeout rate against righties on the road. The best part might be the xwOBA against the curve because Godley throws it around 40 percent. The only lefty with a xwOBA over .228 is Carlos Santana. All the other lefties that are in the lineup rate terribly against that pitch so Godley has some major upside. Even if I don’t wind up pitching Godley, I won’t be using any Phillies offensive players other than maybe Carlos Santana. I usually don’t put this much weight into xwOBA against a certain pitch but when its this bad on a pitch that is the main weapon for a pitcher, I’m siding with that.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Carlos Santana

Home Run Pick – Paul Goldschmidt

BOSTON, MA – JUNE 07: Matthew Boyd #48 of the Detroit Tigers pitches in the second inning of a game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on June 07, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)

DFS MLB – Tigers at Angels

Tigers Probable Starter – Matt Boyd, LHP 

4.22 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 22.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .241 average, .304 wOBA, 24.6 K rate, 42.5 fly ball rate and 42.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .213 average, .284 wOBA, 21.2 K rate, 46.0 fly ball rate and 35.4 hard hit rate

I advocated for Matt Boyd in his last start and he went out and dropped a 55 point start against the Reds. Matt, if you’re reading and looking for a Paul Heyman-style manager, I’m happy to help because I’m going right back to him tonight. I’m assuming Mike Trout is out until he proves otherwise but even if he’s back, the Angels have been terrible against lefty pitching all year. As a team, they’re 28th in average, wOBA, wRC+, OPS and then 23rd in ISO. If those are the numbers with Trout, imagine how bad they would look without him. They do have a player with 22 at-bats against lefties in Jose Briceno that has a 1.155 OPS, .300 ISO and a .487 wOBA. He’s a fine punt at catcher if he’s active and I would play Trout fresh off his injury if he’s in. Past that, it’s Boyd or nothing and now I’ll go work on my rat tail like Heyman used to have. I can totally pull this off.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Birceno as a punt

Secondary Options – Mike Trout, Andrelton Simmons

Angels Probable Starter – Nick Tropeano, RHP 

4.94 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 20.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .287 average, .376 wOBA,19.1 K rate, 32.7 fly ball rate and 45.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .212 average, .326 wOBA, 21.0 K rate, 47.5 fly ball rate and 41.6 hard hit rate

Just like Boyd, you can really make the case for pitching Tropeano tonight. He’s not been good at all with an average strikeout rate but Detroit against righty pitching on the road is one of the best matchups a pitcher can ask for. They are dead last in average, OPS, wOBA, wRC+ and they rank 29th in ISO. They also strikeout 23.8 percent of the time, good for 11th most in baseball. Jim Aducci has the highest wOBA for a lefty hitter at .312 which is a good deal lower than I usually chase. Jeimer Candelario and Niko Goodrum are right there as well with Goodrum actually having a good ISO at .224. If you wanted to try a right hander to take advantage of the fly balls and hard hits Tropeano is giving up, play Nicholas Castellanos. There’s just no metric that points to him being an especially solid play.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Niko Goodrum, Jim Aducci, Nicholas Castellanos

Home Run Pick – Jim Aducci

DFS MLB – Astros at Giants

Astros Probable Starter – Charlie Morton, RHP 

2.90 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 30.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .204 average, .305 wOBA, 38.3 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 40.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .208 average, .270 wOBA, 23.8 K rate, 23.2 fly ball rate and 25.4 hard hit rate

It’s hard not to look at Morton and feel like he’s the safest pitcher on the board tonight, especially since he’s under $10,000. Anytime you can get a pitcher with that kind of strikeout rate facing off abasing an offense that has the eighth highest strikeout rate in the majors, it feels like a great play. Being in AT&T helps Morton’s cause as well. I don’t want anything to do with this spot for the Giants offense beaus there just doesn’t seem to be any upside whatsoever. Even Brandon Crawford is a poor play seeing how much lefties strike out against Morton.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Giants Probable Starter – Dereck Rodriguez, RHP

2.59 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 19.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .233 average, .311 wOBA, 17.5 K rate, 38.5 fly ball rate and 45.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .216 average, .272 wOBA, 21.8 K rate, 29.3 fly ball rate and 39.2 hard hit rate

The price point might take him out of the running for me, as Rodriguez is the fourth most expensive pitcher on the slate. Godley, Hamels, Arrieta and Boyd are all cheaper but Rodriguez might get a really favorable draw here tonight. George Springer left the game yesterday with a thumb injury. Fortunately for Houston, the X-rays were negative. That also is no guarantee he’ll play tonight. This lineup could be missing Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Springer and Evan Gattis. Since it’s in the National League, Gattis will almost surely sit. He didn’t start any of the three games abasing the Dodgers. Those are four of the main cogs in the Houston lineup and leaves Alex Bregman as the only hitter that really scares you with a .224 ISO and a .375 wOBA. Bregman isn’t a terrible play but he’s better against lefties and in a bad park in a potentially bad lineup.

On the cheap side, Tyler White and Tony Kemp with have a wOBA of at least .378 against righties and White is sporting a .259 ISO in 33 at-bats. While there is glimmers of hope, there’s also an excellent chance that I skip this game entirely other than Morton.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Tyler White, Alex Bregman, Tony Kemp

Home Run Pick – None

DFS MLB – FanDuel Sample Lineup

P – Charlie Morton 

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C/1B – Elias Diaz

2B – Ben Zobrist 

3B – Jedd Gyorko

SS – Greg Garcia

OF – Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl, Nelson Cruz 

Utility – Derek Dietrich 

I would need some help from the lineup cards to make this one work because Gyorko, Diaz and Garcia certainly aren’t guaranteed to be in their lineups. If they are, I like this a good bit. We’re able to play Morton, get a piece of the Pirates offense, then jam the outfield with the two most popular Rockies and Cruz all in the same lineup. Dietrich and Zobrist are more of a “floor” play than anything else but if their price makes it work, I can’t complain.

The Core – Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl, Jedd Gyorko, Charlie Morton

Pitching Options 

High End – Trevor Bauer, Charlie Morton, Dereck Rodriguez(GPP only)

Mid-Range – Zack Godley, Jake Arrieta, Cole Hamels

Punts – Matt Boyd, Nick Tropeano, Homer Bailey(so gross)

Stacks to Consider – Rockies/Pirates stack, Rangers/Mariners stack, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.