How does Frank Ntilikina get better offensively?

Frank Ntilikina’s rookie year was a pretty good example of what to expect from a young, raw guard in year one in the NBA. Lead guard is probably the toughest position to transition into the NBA at, and it’s common to see players struggle overall while showing flashes of the talent that got them there. Ntilikina’s first year with the New York Knicks played the hits of your typical rookie guard.

There was the early coming out party, as Ntilikina’s clutch defense in a November comeback and win against the Pacers helped endear him to Knicks fans. November and December showed slow progression, as he began to take to the Knicks’ defensive scheme and became very valuable playing next to Jarrett Jack and Tim Hardaway Jr. Then came the rookie wall in January, when he posted a true shooting percentage of 39.4 and looked lost offensively because of the shooting slump. And finally, once the Porzingis-less Knicks started to wrap up their season, he finally got more chances, starting nine games in March and April. With those opportunities, he finally started to show the skill level that we may expect from him this season, averaging 10.0 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game in April.

Ntilikina had his bright spots and his warts on both ends, although most of the former came on defense, and most of the latter were on offense. Ntilikina settled in nicely on defense throughout the year, and was perhaps the team’s best point-of-attack defender. He handled a variety of tough assignments, and shows great potential as a lockdown option at the top of the Knicks defense.

Ntilikina has great size, wingspan, and quickness, and that makes him apt to defend at the point of attack. He shows great instinct reacting to plays developing behind him, and he fights hard through screens consistently.

Ntilikina graded out in the 86th percentile against isolations and the 90th percentile against pick-and-roll ball-handlers, per NBA.com Synergy data. While the exact translation of these numbers to real effectiveness is debatable, they paint a picture that Ntilikina is at least trending towards becoming a fearsome defender in the league. His off-ball highlights also give credence to this — he routinely made nice plays as a helpside defender, and his long reach and reaction time allow him to pick steals that would be tough for even most NBA wings.

He’s nowhere near a finished product yet, and year-two’s development will focus on reigning in that anticipatory nature. Too often, Ntilikina hedged towards the screener during a pick-and-roll, getting put in a bind when the opponent rejected the screen and allowing a clear path to the rim. He also can be a little bit jumpy off-ball, and needs to develop better positioning when defending wings. But those are not difficult tweaks, and he has real potential to defend every spot on the perimeter. He even has potential as a post defender, showing strong hip strength and discipline that is almost Marcus Smart-like.

He also might already be one of the best transition defenders in the league.

This all sets a nice baseline value for him as he moves forward. A switchable defender at the point of attack is incredibly valuable in the playoffs, and even if Ntilikina is just a variant of fruit off the Marcus Smart tree, that’s an NBA rotation player. However, to solidify that standing, his offensive game has to get better. Even in a banner year for the theory that young point guards struggle with efficiency, Ntilikina was by far the least effective scorer of his cohort of rookie guards. He finished the year shooting 36.4 percent from the field, posting an assist rate of just 20 percent, and finishing with an Offensive Box Plus-Minus of minus-3.5.

The major problem is confidence. Ntilikina doesn’t appear to trust his instincts offensively, and that can affect him in those split-second decisions that separate a strong finish from a blocked shot in the NBA. When he commits to heading to the rim, Ntilikina can blow by pretty much anyone, and that makes him effective in transition. But in the halfcourt, he is hesitant to commit to a move, and doesn’t trust that he’s strong enough to power through contact at the rim.

Ntilikina actually has good touch around the rim, and that’s promising for his ability to finish as his body fills out. But at this point he’s over-reliant on his touch, and too many of his lay-ups look like this, with an inherently higher degree of difficulty.

Ntilikina’s confidence also negatively impacts him in his pull-up game, where he hesitates trying to create separation and ends up shooting too many contested looks. His slow jumper isn’t necessarily a problem by itself, but it was last year because he struggled to get enough space to get the shot off.

Hopefully, Ntilikina’s transition into David Fizdale’s offense is one that will help solve some of these issues, as well. Ntilikina is probably best used as a ball-mover and spot-up threat, rather than a traditional point guard. Ntilikina has potential attacking off the dribble, but he’s probably best used in the same ways that Smart is in Boston — attacking in straight lines, swinging the ball, and shooting when open. Less pull-up 2s is in everyone’s interest in today’s NBA, but especially for Ntilikina, who doesn’t appear to want to have to shoot them and yet took far too many last year. This move could also free him up to make more functional use of his passing ability, which thrives more when the ball is moving and he can make quick reads against a broken defense.

Ntilikina’s rough offensive season as a rookie isn’t a cause for total alarm. It probably means that he’s not going to achieve the level of some of his classmates as a scorer, but that is perfectly acceptable. Out of the gates he looks like he might be a top-three perimeter defender in the class, and can achieve a ceiling of a super-value role player on a winning team if he continues to progress. Primarily, that progression needs to come on the offensive end, where his strength and confidence need to improve so that he can become a better finisher and decision-maker.

A role change, from less of a pure point to the more modernized ball-movement oriented off-guard, could help things greatly, and he is getting a new coach in Fizdale who should be able to make that happen. If that role change takes, Ntilikina can become a very valuable two-way player for what hopefully will be the next iteration of good Knicks basketball.