DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Tuesday, August 7

Welcome into the Tuesday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have the normal 14 game monster slate on hand so let’s jump right in.

The sooner we can get last night’s DFS MLB debacle behind us, the better. One offensive player eclipsed double digit points and that was Didi Gregorius, who I played with Matt Boyd. He scored me a whopping 16 points and I have cut ties with him and will no longer be his advocate. You don’t get Paul Heyman-light if you get beat up by a Trout-less Angels squad. Let’s find some hitters that can actually hit the ball tonight!

DFS MLB – Braves at Nationals

Braves Probable Starter – Sean Newcomb, LHP 

3.23 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 22.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .180 average, .309 wOBA, 25.8 K rate, 38.2 fly ball rate and 38.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .206 average, .272 wOBA, 21.7 K rate, 35.1 fly ball rate and 31.7 hard hit rate

Newcomb has had a very solid season but has generally seen a decrease in strikeouts and increase in walks lately, putting aside his near no-hitters. We’re going to start off against the grain for most people because Juan Soto might be the best play from the Nationals offense. Typically, it’s an Anthony Rendon and Ryan Zimmerman spot when facing a lefty. However, the teenage phenom smokes lefty pitching with a 1.132 OPS, .304 ISO and a .477 wOBA. Newcomb pumps that fastball in a lot, over 60 percent of the time. Soto carries a .563 xwOBA against that particular pitch and grades out as a dynamite play by all our typical metrics. Speaking of Zimmerman, don’t forget about him in this spot. He smashes lefty fastballs with a .511 xwOBA and still has an ISO over .200 and wOBA over .400 despite having a down year overall. My only slight issue with Rendon is his xwOBA against the fastball is just .332, which isn’t spectacular. This could be a dangerous spot for Newcomb even though he is a talented pitcher. A Nationals stack in GPP’s could be a very solid route to take.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Juan Soto, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon

Secondary Options – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper

Nationals Probable Starter – Max Scherzer, RHP 

2.33 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 34.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .191 average, .262 wOBA, 32.9 K rate, 50.0 fly ball rate and 28.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .173 average, .242 wOBA, 36.6 K rate, 43.5 fly ball rate and 34.8 hard hit rate

On this big of a slate, it’s really not worth looking at the Braves too heavily. Sure, if they go off, you would rocket up the leaderboards but it’s just not a high probability play to make. I wouldn’t put too much weight into this but Kurt Suzuki and Nick Markakis both have an average of at least .306 and an xwOBA of .345. Suzuki has 21 at-bats and Markakis has 62, so I would generally side with Markakis in the larger sample size. Even then, there’s not a homer in that sample size and the only hitter with multiple bombs off Scherzer is Freddie Freeman with two in 30 at-bats. The only question is whether Scherzer is worth the price, which we can decide at the end.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Kurt Suzuki, Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis

Home Run Pick – Juan Soto

DFS MLB – Red Sox at Blue Jays

Red Sox Probable Starter – Drew Pomeranz, LHP 

6.56 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and 19.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .290 average, .338 wOBA, 11.4 K rate, 51.9 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .302 average, .406 wOBA, 21.2 K rate, 37.8 fly ball rate and 39.2 hard hit rate

Pomeranz has been positively ghastly this season and it’s hard not to love the Blue Jays hitters in this one. Some of the pitch data for their main hitters doesn’t look the most promising but this spot is one that I don’t put a ton of stock into it. Pomeranz has been that bad that the surface numbers are enough to attack here. We have hitters at all levels of the pricing spectrum and Devon Travis at $2,400 feels like stealing tonight. He’s accumulated a .238 ISO and a .361 wOBA against lefties so far and is only striking out 12.5 percent of the time.

The mid-range features Teoscar Hernandez with a massive .291 ISO against lefties. He can be a volatile hitter but the matchup looks incredible. Pomeranz has a 2.13 HR/9 to righties this year so we have to look at the red hot Aledmys Diaz and his .231 ISO. Paying $3,400 for him isn’t something that I would do in cash but he’s a good cog in a Blue Jays stack. Justin Smoak feels a little trappy by some of the numbers. He has one of the worst xwOBA’s on the team at .302 and only has a .140 ISO and .316 wOBA. $3,700 feels risky for those numbers, although it’s also fair to note that Smoak has a .587 xwOBA against Pomeranz in 12 career at-bats with a .417 average. The stink of Pomeranz leads me to a Blue Jays stack in at least one lineup.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Devon Travis, Aledmys Diaz(as part of the stack), Teoscar Hernandez

Secondary Options – Justin Smoak(Elite in a stack), Randall Grichuk, Yangervis Solarte

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Marcus Stroman, RHP 

5.63 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 18.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .288 average, .335 wOBA, 16.7 K rate, 18.1 fly ball rate and 38.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .277 average, .324 wOBA, 20.0 K rate, 24.4 fly ball rate and 33.1 hard hit rate

Stroman had been pitching better recently until he got blitzed by the A’s and this spot could be another rough one for him. Six Boston hitters have ISO’s over .200 against righties this year and four of them are over .250. Even though Stroman typically keeps the ball out of the air, it’s tough to see his path to success here. Hitters are making contact with his pitches 78.2 percent of the time and some of that might be by design, it’s not a good attack plan against this team. Andrew Benintendi would be my favorite play seeing as how he’s a lefty and has plenty of stolen base upside. His xwOBA against Stroman’s pitches look really good at .465, which leads the team. Xander Bogaerts has an excellent history against Stroman with a .443 xwOBA and two homers in 29 at-bats. If Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez can hit the ball as much as the contact percentage leads us to believe, it’s just a matter of time before the .283 and .357 ISO show up for those two hitters. Having said all of this, stacking against an extreme groundball pitcher is inherently dangerous. He’s generating a ground ball 61 percent of the time, which can hinder the upside of any stack.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts

Secondary Options – Mitch Moreland, Steve Pearce

Home Run Pick – Devon Travis and Teoscar Hernandez

DFS MLB – Orioles at Rays

Orioles Probable Starter – Alex Cobb, RHP 

5.83 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and 15.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .313 average, .375 wOBA, 18.0 K rate, 35.4 fly ball rate and 35.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .297 average, .360 wOBA, 12.5 K rate, 28.9 fly ball rate and 31.7 hard hit rate

Cobb has been finding a bit of a groove lately, having not given up more than three earned runs in any of his four starts since early July. I think this spot is fairly easy as far as who you want to look at. Jake Bauers has to lead the pack since he’s a lefty and he carries the home run upside with a .259 Iso and a .362 wOBA. He’s pretty solid against the pitch mix for Cobb with a .375 xwOBA. It should be noted that it’s dragged down by a .089 mark against the splitter but Cobb throws that just 28 percent of the time. Bauers should see a few pitches he can handle. Mallex Smith and Kevin Kiermaier won’t bring you huge power but they can both steal a bag without much of an issue. Cobb has given up a couple more homers to right handed hitters so C.J. Cron is pretty solid here as well. He only trails Bauers in ISO among the active Rays hitters with a .235 mark.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jake Bauers, C.J. Cron

Secondary Options – Mallex Smith, Kevin Kiermaier

Rays Probable Starter – Tyler Glasnow, RHP 

4.27 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 30.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .245 average, .356 wOBA, 26.1 K rate, 24.6 fly ball rate and 19.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .208 average, .270 wOBA, 34.1 K rate, 25.7 fly ball rate and 35.1 hard hit rate

Glasnow is basically a two pitch pitcher, throwing a four seam almost 75 percent of the time to both sides of the plate while lobbing in a curveball to keep hitters honest. Jonathan Villar has taken very nicely to his new digs in Baltimore and is a really solid option at just $2,900. He has a little pop and he’s a great source of steals, something Glasnow has always struggled with. Mark Trumbo also looks pretty appealing with his .539 xwOBA against the fastball to go along with a .204 ISO. You could also go with Chris Davis after seeing the splits for Glasnow but as usual, I can’t get terribly excited for the Orioles offense. I’d like to see how the lineup shakes out and who’s near the top before deciding on anyone else.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jonathan Villar

Secondary Options – Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis, TBD

Home Run Pick – Jonathan Villar

DFS MLB – Reds at Mets

Reds Probable Starter – Sal Romano, RHP 

5.12 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 16.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .300 average, .385 wOBA, 14.2 K rate, 35.4 fly ball rate and 41.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .231 average, .299 wOBA, 17.8 K rate, 32.1 fly ball rate and 31.0 hard hit rate

Romano is continuing the trend of being far worse against one side of the plate only to give up more homers to the opposite side. Granted, it’s only 11 to righties and 10 to lefties so I would still side with the lefty hitters. Romano uses his sinker to a major extent and the first two hitters that standout by the xwOBA metric are Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil. They’re tied at .494 but take McNeil’s stat with a grain of salt. It’s only a four result sample size. Conforto hasn’t shown a ton of power but that’s been dragged down by his abysmal first half. He’s been better lately and sits at just $3,300 while McNeil is $2,700. He’s been good since his call-up but that can change at any point. Brandon Nimmo has been in some type of funk(.207 average, .317 wOBA, 32.7 K rate past 30 days) so I’m not convinced I’d pay up for him. The Mets are pesky against righty pitching.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Michael Conforto

Secondary Options – Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Jose Bautista, Wilmer Flores

Mets Probable Starter – Jason Vargas, LHP 

8.23 ERA, 1.79 WHIP and 18.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .294 average, .394 wOBA, 15.0 K rate, 40.5 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .329 average, .417 wOBA, 20.3 K rate, 41.1 fly ball rate and 37.9 hard hit rate

I’d like to take this space to publicly thank FanDuel for making Eugenio Suarez just $3,900 tonight. Sure, that absurd price tag means he’s going to be insanely chalky in all formats but it’s the type of chalk you had better be on the right side of. He utterly destroys lefty pitching with a 1.193 OPS, .326 ISO and a .493 wOBA. He checks the pitch data box as well with a .487 xwOBA against the pitch mix for Vargas. In addition, he’s faced Vargas six times and has a .777 xwOBA in those at-bats. He’s probably at least $600-$800 too cheap, if not more. I’ll take this savings and run. Phillip Ervin is interesting if he makes the lineup. It’s not quite 20 at-bats against lefties yet but his numbers are actually a tick better than Suarez. At $2,300, that’s an easy addition to any lineup. Either catcher would be a fine option as well but Curt Casali is better by all of our normal metrics. The Reds are in a prime spot up and down the lineup.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eugenio Suarez(lock him in), Phillip Ervin, whoever catches

Secondary Options – Scooter Gennett, Joey Votto, Jose Peraza

Home Run Pick – Eugenio Suarez

DFS MLB – Twins at Indians

Twins Probable Starter – Adalberto Mejia, LHP 

2.60 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 13.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .154 average, .135 wOBA, 15.4 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 18.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .269 average, .329 wOBA, 13.1 K rate, 37.2 fly ball rate and 25.0 hard hit rate

We have one of the better high-priced options and perhaps the best salary saver on the board on this side of the game. Francisco Lindor is one of the best players in baseball and he hammers lefty pitching, including a .217 ISO. That’s not even good enough for third on the team as Jose Ramirez is ahead of him at .233. The funny part is the two leaders are Yan Gomes at .244 and Brandon Guyer heading the pack with a .284 ISO against lefty pitching. Guyer is also higher than Lindor in the pitch data, with a .433 xwOBA to Lindor’s .330. Guyer is $2,400 cheaper tonight and will likely be a very popular option. It’s hard to turn away from at that price tag. Players might flock to Edwin Enarnacion after his three run shot last night, assuming that he’ll beat up on a lefty pitcher. A word of caution against that thinking – he’s hitting .205 against lefties with a .159 ISO, .310 wOBA and only four homers against lefties all season. I’ll have some pieces to the Indians offense but I’m not sure quite how much yet.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Brandon Guyer, Francisco Lindor, Yan Gomes(if active)

Secondary Options – Jose Ramirez

Indians Probable Starter – Carlos Carrasco, RHP 

3.66 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 27.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .250 average, .311 wOBA, 28.8 K rate, 32.7 fly ball rate ad 37.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .236 average, .282 wOBA, 26.9 K rate, 36.9 fly ball rate and 401.1 hard hit rate

As a rule, I pretty much don’t use Carrasco when he pitches at home. Just this year, he has a 4.99 ERA and is giving up a .342 wOBA with a 1.48 HR/9. He’s also slightly worse against lefties which is the majority of the Twins lineup. Carrasco has also been a mixed bag against the Twins this season. He’s dominated them twice and gotten whacked twice so this side of the of the game is tournament only for me. I’d swing for the fences if I’m playing Twins which means Eddie Rosario and Logan Morrison with their ISO’s over .200. On a big slate, this seems like an easy spot to gloss over for cash game purposes. I wouldn’t be surprised if Carrasco struggled again.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Eddie Rosario, Logan Morrison

Home Run Pick –  Brandon Guyer

DFS MLB – Cardinals at Marlins

Cardinals Probable Starter – Miles Mikolas, RHP 

2.75 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 17.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .278 average, .305 wOBA, 16.2 K rate, 28.9 fly ball rate and 38.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .186 average, .216 wOBA, 19.1 K rate, 24.3 fly ball rate and 28.2 hard hit rate

I really wish that Mikolas was a little cheaper in this spot because he should have a decent start. It’s just hard to pay $8,300 for a pitcher with such a low strikeout rate against a team that’s only striking out around 23 percent of the time. Even the lefties don’t look incredibly appealing because Mikolas has only given up six home runs to lefties. Justin Bour can get to anyone but I’m not as excited as I was yesterday. I’m certainly not using any righties against Mikolas so this isn’t the spot to target offensive players. If you make a lineup that you love and Mikolas fits, he’s playable. It just doesn’t appear like he has a ton of potential for a ceiling game.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Justin Bour, Derek Dietrich

Marlins Probable Starter – Pablo Lopez, RHP 

4.67 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 19.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .271 average, .319 wOBA, 20.3 K rate, 27.8 fly ball rate and 30.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .230 average, .332 wOBA, 19.1 K rate, 29.2 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

I’m not entirely sure what we do with Lopez here. He’s made six starts and three have been pretty good and three have been a disaster. The Cardinals are coming off a game where they only scored one run against the Fish and any outcome seems on the table tonight. He might be expensive but I’d feel comfortable with Matt Carpenter tonight since Lopez has given up a little higher average. Carpenter also has a .524 xwOBA against the main pitches for Lopez and a giant .306 ISO and .403 wOBA. This entire game just looks pretty blah, for lack of a better word. There’s better spots all the way around the league tonight. I wouldn’t shoe horn any hitter in and will likely pass on the pitching options.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Options – None

Home Run Pick – Matt Carpenter

SEATTLE, WA – JUNE 11: Ryon Healy #27 of the Seattle Mariners hits a home run off of Andrew Heaney #28 of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in the fourth inning during the game at Safeco Field on June 11, 2018 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Lindsey Wasson/Getty Images)

DFS MLB – Mariners at Rangers

Mariners Probable Starter – Felix Hernandez, RHP 

5.49 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 18.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .245 average, .342 wOBA, 20.9 K rate, 40.0 fly ball rate and 38.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .279 average, .342 wOBA, 16.7 K rate, 30.2 fly ball rate and 40.2 hard hit rate

If your a Mariners fan, you can’t feel comfortable with him in this spot. Seattle has been talking about taking him out of the rotation, which is a bad sign for the veteran. Now he has to face a Rangers squad in Texas that has a ton of power up and down the lineup. Four hitters have an ISO over .200 and seven have a wOBA over .330. The biggest factor that scares you if Hernandez is not striking out batters at a very high clip. If they make contact, it’s getting hit hard. A Rangers stack with Shin-soo Choo, Rougned Odor and Joey Gallo make sense from a power perspective. Hernandez throws a lot of junk so there’s not a single pitch to hone in on. Those three hitters have an ISO of at least .213 and I’d really have a tough time talking you out of any Ranger hitter tonight. I’d leave Adrian Beltre out just due to his lack of power this year(.118 ISO) and Hernandez. might just work his way out of the Mariners rotation tonight.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Shin-soo Choo, Rougned Odor, Joey Gallo

Secondary Options – Elvis Andrus, Willie Calhoun, Jurickson Profar, Robinson Chirinos

Rangers Probable Starter – Bartolo Colon, RHP 

5.18 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 13.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .272 average, .325 wOBA, 12.7 K rate, 33.5 fly ball rate and 40.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .275 average, .359 wOBA, 14.4 K rate, 35.8 fly ball rate and 43.7 hard hit rate

Colon has been a home run serving machine to righties, having a 19-5 ratio for righties to lefties. He’s throwing the sinker a ton and maybe my favorite play out of the Mariners lineup isn’t one of the biggest names. It’s Ryon Healy since he bats righty, has a .213 ISO and a .644 xwOBA against righty sinkers this season. The price tag of $2,300 is just the icing on the cake for Healy tonight. Hitters like Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger and even Mike Zunino might be in play tonight. They all have an xwOBA against the sinker of at least .375 and those three have an ISO over .200. I would be stunned if Colon didn’t give up a bomb tonight and it could be multiples.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Ryon Healy, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger

Secondary Options – Mike Zunino, Jean Segura

Home Run Pick – Shin-soo Choo, Ryon Healy and Willie Calhoun

DFS MLB – Yankees at White Sox

Yankees Probable Starter – CC Sabathia, LHP 

3.59 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 18.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .173 average, .299 wOBA, 22.8 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 18.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .268 average, .328 wOBA, 17.5 K rate, 35.8 fly ball rate and 30.9 hard hit rate

Sabathia had a rough go of things in his last start in Fenway Park and one thing that came out of that is how easy it was to steal bases on him. That means we have to be interested in Tim Anderson. Most of his steals have come against righties but Sabathia is going to be an exception. The catch is there really isn’t any metric that points us to Anderson other than a lower strikeout rate and a decent ISO of .188. The two hitters that do have some solid metrics are Avisail Garcia and Matt Davidson. They both have a big ISO of at least .282 against lefties and have a .467 xwOBA or above against the main two pitches for Sabathia. Garcia is under 10 results but is still impressive at a monster .763. I wouldn’t go crazy with White Sox hitters but they could be a nice lineup filler with everyone else.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Avisail Garcia, Matt Davidson

Secondary Options – Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu

White Sox Probable Starter – Reynaldo Lopez, RHP 

4.47 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 16.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .232 average, .320 wOBA, 14.7 K rate, 51.5 fly ball rate and 33.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .255 average, .337 wOBA, 17.7 K rate, 43.3 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

Lopez has been a weird pitcher to me all season long with his blazing fastball and low strikeout rate. He throws that pitch about 60 percent to each side of the plate and since he’s reverse splits, we’re heading to the righties first. Gleyber Torres rates the best as he has the highs ISO and wOBA against righty pitching and he’s solid via the pitch data with a .373 xwOBA on the fastball. My next favorite is Miguel Andujar. He’s close in wOBA and the ISO is a hair lower than I like at .184 but the xwOBA is all the way up at .431, best on the team among everyday players. It might seem odd to say but the Yanks don’t rate as well as I assumed they would against a fastball heavy pitcher. Even a hitter like Giancarlo Stanton isn’t my favorite with a .360 xwOBA and an ISO a little under .200.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres

Secondary Options – Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks

Home Run Pick – Miguel Andujar

DFS MLB – Padres at Brewers

Padres Probable Starter – Clayton Richard, LHP 

4.99 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 16.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .223 average, .284 wOBA, 18.3 K rate, 8.0 fly ball rate and 31.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .257 average, .336 wOBA, 16.1 K rate, 25.5 fly ball rate and 43.0 hard hit rate

Richard has been getting mashed lately and heading to the hitter’s park in Milwaukee likely isn’t going to cure that. As hot as Christian Yelich has been, I’m not paying up for him given the dominance of Richard against lefties this year. I’m looking at the righties and Lorenzo Cain is my first stop. The pitch data is mediocre against the lefty sinker at just .343 but everything else looks great for Cain with a .214 ISO and a .428 wOBA.

You could actually make an outfield of just Cain, Ryan Braun and Hernan Perez tonight and feel pretty solid about it. Perez destroys lefty sinkers at a .474 xwOBA and then tacks on a whopping .293 ISO along with it. Braun also sits right at a .400 xwOBA and over .200 ISO. The great thing about these three hitters is the low strikeout rate they have. None of the three strikeout more than 18.7 percent of the time. Jonathan Schoop raked lefty sinkers with a .504 xwOBA with the Orioles and should be the same way in Milwaukee.  Maybe this matchup will get Jesus Aguilar back on track too. He’s been flat out awful since the All-Star break but rates extremely well against the sinker at a .471 xwOBA.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Hernan Perez, Jonathan Schoop

Secondary Options – Jesus Aguilar

Brewers Probable Starter – Chase Anderson, RHP 

3.65 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 19.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .206 average, .297 wOBA, 19.9 K rate, 41.5 fly ball rate and 34.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .227 average, .313 wOBA, 19.4 K rate, 45.6 fly ball rate and 37.4 hard hit rate

I can safely say that I won’t have a Padres hitter tonight and I actually think Anderson is pretty attractive, especially on two pitcher sites. San Diego is an utter embarrassment against righty pitching. They rank 29th or 30th in average, OBP, slug, ISO, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ to back up their league leading strikeout rate at 25.9 percent. This might actually be a spot where Anderson can be used even on FanDuel as a nice mid-tier option. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any start since the end of June. His strikeout upside usually is pretty low but…Padres. That’s not usually the analysis we give in here but I literally can’t find a hitter that I’d want t play.

Padres hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Home Run Pick – Jonathan Schoop and Hernan Perez

DFS MLB – Cubs at Royals

Cubs Probable Starter – Mike Montgomery, LHP 

3.90 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 14.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .238 average, .291 wOBA, 18.8 K rate, 22.2 fly ball rate and 30.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .278 average, .316 wOBA, 12.3 K rate, 27.3 fly ball rate and 31.7 hard hit rate

He’s not pitching well enough to consider using, but Montgomery is far from a gas can. He keeps the ball out of the air and it’s tough to get behind too many players form the Royals tonight. Nobody is a standout via the pitch data or really the ISO and wOBA standpoint either. I will say I miss the days we had Jorge Soler in this lineup because he would have been a fun option. The only hitters I would look at is Whit Merrifield or Salvador Perez. Merrifield is a favorite of mine against lefties but is too pricey for me because his stolen base upside is capped against the Cubbies. Perez could run into a ball but that seems unlikely considering Montgomery has a 0.70 HR/9 this year.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler

Royals Probable Starter – Brad Keller, RHP 

3.39 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 15.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .258 average, .320 wOBA, 16.1 K rate, 18.8 fly ball rate and 31.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .246 average, .274 wOBA, 15.4 K rate, 26.1 fly ball rate and 34.0 hard hit rate

This one has every chance of being laughed at when the slate is over, but I really don’t want to play Cubs tonight. Keller has pitched 82.1 innings in the majors this year and has given up precisely three home runs. That’s impressive and just because he’s not a high profile pitcher doesn’t mean we shouldn’t notice this stat. He’s a good ground ball pitcher at 55 percent and it’s a little tough to see slam dunk upside for Chicago hitters. If you want to chase the home run ball here, it has to be with Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber. The both rate well against the pitch mix with a .395 and .427 xwOBA, respectively. They have almost identical wOBA’s and both carry an ISO of at least .233. I just believe there are spots that are more likely to see the ball leave the yard.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Javier Baez, Ian Happ

Home Run Pick – Anthony Rizzo

DFS MLB – Pirates at Rockies

Pirates Probable Starter – Jameson Taillon, RHP 

3.74 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 22.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .258 average, .320 wOBA, 17.8 K rate, 29.4 fly ball rate and 30.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .234 average, .275 wOBA, 26.9 K rate, 30.6 fly ball rate and 30.7 hard hit rate

I’m incredibly curious to see what the ownership percentages are for this Coors game tonight. Last night, this game fizzled with a grand total of two runs and Jameson Taillon is a more talented pitcher than Joe Musgrove. The Pittsburgh starter has been a different pitcher since leaning on the slider more and he hasn’t given up more than three runs since the end of May. His strikeout rate isn’t high enough for me to venture into playing him personally, but a case can be made for GPP’s. The one factor that might change that is if the Rockies roll out a righty heavy lineup. As of now, I’d really only look at David Dahl and Charlie Blackmon. Both these players should be in the lineup tonight and they both have an ISO over .245 against righty pitching. Things could change during the day but there’s enough downside here that I’m not going nuts with a Rockies stack.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl

Secondary Options – Carlos Gonzalez

Rockies Probable Starter – Chad Bettis, RHP 

5.10 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 16.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .224 average, .314 wOBA, 18.5 K rate, 25.2 fly ball rate and 31.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH -.287 average, .360 wOBA, 15.6 K rate, 34.5 fly ball rate and 37.1 hard hit rate

Bettis has gotten worked at home this year and players might want to get back onto a Pirates hitter or two to take advantage of his ERA over 8.00 in Coors. Righty hitters are ruining his life with a .408 average and a .478 wOBA at home to go along with a 2.45 HR/9 to the handedness. Starling Marte is my favorite play because he can bring it all to the table. He has the power to leave the park with a .194 ISO and a .364 wOBA. He’s solid against the pitch mix and he has 21 stolen bases this season against righty pitching. Francisco Cervelli is next because he’s actually been better against righties than lefties this year.. He’s not a power hitter prototype but does clear the bar with a .208 ISO. I wouldn’t totally discourage using lefties like Gregory Polanco or Corey Dickerson tonight. It’s more a case of the righties being the priority.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Starling Marte, Francisco Cervelli, David Freese

Secondary Options – Gregory Polanco, Corey Dickerson

Home Run Pick – Starling Marte

DFS MLB – Phillies at Diamondbacks

Phillies Probable Starter – Nick Pivetta, RHP 

4.75 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 29.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .302 average, .364 wOBA, 26.7 K rate, 39.0 fly ball rate and 34.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .219 average, .286 wOBA, 31.4 K rate, 34.8 fly ball rate and 32.3 hard hit rate

Pivetta is a true wildcard for GPP’s tonight. He has totally owned righty hitters, which somewhat eliminates the better hitters Arizona has in their lineups. They’re missing Jake Lamb for the season, which is a big blow to the lefty power potential. The Diamondbacks are terrible against righty pitching, even at home. It’s tough to buy the humidor didn’t have some effect this season. Against righties at home, they rank no higher than 18th across the board in average, OBP, OPS, slug, wOBA, ISO and wRC+. The strikeout rate of 24.1 percent is awfully appealing for a pitcher that has the strikeout upside of Pivetta. Maybe the best one-off hitter against Pivetta is David Peralta. He has a .238 ISO so he could leave the yard and he has a .396 wOBA overall against righty pitching. I really want to see how many lefties are in the lineup because a player like Ketel Marte will hit lefty, but is worse against righties. Alex Avila is a lefty but carries a strikeout rate over 40 percent. That makes two hitters easier for Pivetta and I’m really liking him for tournaments.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – David Peralta as a one-off

Secondary Options – Daniel Descalso, Eduardo Escobar

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Zack Greinke, RHP 

2.96 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 25.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .224 average, .267 wOBA, 24.0 K rate, 28.1 fly ball rate and 37.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .232 average, .294 wOBA, 27.4 K rate, 38.0 fly ball rate and 44.3 hard hit rate

We might get another pitcher’s duel in the desert tonight because I’m thinking Grienke has some serious upside as well. The price is still up there on FanDuel over $10,000 but he gets to face a Phillies squad that is lefty heavy at the top of the lineup and strikes out at about the highest rate in the league. They go back and forth with the Padres on a nightly basis. Rhys Hoskins bats righty and is up to a .282 ISO so you could take a shot with him. Greinke is giving up a pretty high hard hit rate and plenty of fly balls but it’s far from a cash game play. I would rather take a shot with Pivetta in this game and save the $1,700.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Rhys Hoskins(GPP)

Home Run Pick – David Peralta

DFS MLB – Dodgers at A’s

Dodgers Probable Starter – Rich Hill, LHP 

3.63 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 25.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .186 average, .261 wOBA, 20.0 K rate, 37.7 fly ball rate and 34.0 hard hit rate

vs RHH – .262 average, .341 wOBA, 27.4 K rate, 37.4 fly ball rate and 48.7 hard hit rate

Hill has been mostly good lately and he’s really intriguing tonight since the game is in Oakland. The A’s are a better team on the road generally speaking and they rank no higher than 24th in average, slug, OBP, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ against lefties at home. They do jump to 16th in ISO so there is power to be had…when they make contact. The strikeout rate is sixth highest in baseball within the split at 24.6 percent. I think Mark Canha and his .345 ISO against southpaws might be the only hitter I would think about in this spot. Every other factor points to Hill having the advantage and it’s hard to feel confident with A’s hitters from the statistical evidence.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Mark Canha, Stephen Piscotty, Matt Chapman

A’s Probable Starter – Sean Manaea, LHP 

3.38 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 17.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .222 average, .277 wOBA, 17.0 K rate, 29.6 fly ball rate and 25.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .218 average, .278 wOBA, 17.3 K rate, 36.3 fly ball rate and 39.3 hard hit rate

The Dodgers hitters are much cheaper than I assumed they would be and they are in a pretty solid stacking spot. Manaea has been solid this year but his xFIP and FIP are both a bit higher than the ERA and some of these Dodgers hitters look really good against the four seam/changeup combo he throws most of the time. Manny Machado, Justin Turner and Matt Kemp all have an xwOBA over .450 against those two pitches. Kemp and Turner are especially through the roof at .576 and .543 and those two hitters are only $2,700 and $2,600 tonight on FanDuel. I’m not terribly excited for Coors but this game has my attention on this side. Los Angeles is deadly on any given night and Manaea doesn’t scare me.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Justin Turner, Matt Kemp, Manny Machado

Secondary Options – Brian Dozier, Kike Hernandez, Chris Taylor

Home Run Pick – Justin Turner

DFS MLB – Tigers at Angels

Tigers Probable Starter – Jacob Turner, RHP 

I’m not going to use the ERA and splits and the usual measures here because the last time Turner pitched more than 39 innings in the big leagues was 2014. The story here is he is a pretty extreme reverse splits pitcher through his career. The wOBA to righties is .377 with a 1.53 HR/9 to righty hitters so that’s where I’m heading first. Justin Upton and Andrelton Simmons are both just $3,000 and Simmons should be pretty safe while Upton brings the upside with a .213 ISO. I’d run Mike Trout out there in a GPP because most players will be scared to use him with a wrist injury that has caused him to miss almost a week of action. I wouldn’t talk you out of Shohei Ohtani Or Kole Calhoun even though Turner has been worse against righties. He likely shouldn’t be in the majors at this stage of his career and Ohtani actually has a higher ISO against righty pitching than Trout, .328 to .323. The Angels certainly appear to rival the Dodgers as a great late night hammer.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Justin Upton, Andrelton Simmons, Mike Trout(if active)

Secondary Options – Shohei Ohtani, Kole Calhoun

Angels Probable Starter – Andrew Heaney, LHP 

3.75 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 23.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .215 average, .220 wOBA, 23.6 K rate, 17.9 fly ball rate and 24.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .232 average, .316 wOBA, 22.8 K rate, 40.9 fly ball rate and 42.5 hard hit rate

There’s a very strong case to be made for a game stack on the last one of the slate. The Tigers see a major difference when they face a lefty to start with and Heaney throws his sinker 56 percent of the time against righty hitters. It’s a limited sample size, but Detroit has four hitters with an xwOBA over .425 against that pitch and Niko Goodrum leads them with an insane .611 mark. He is generally better against righties from a power standpoint but he’s in the running. The two players that have my attention a little more are Nicholas Castellanos and Jose Iglesias. They both have an OPS over .930, an ISO over .215 and a wOBA over .395. Combine that with the pitch data and they definitely check every box and will carry a super low ownership. That’s especially true of Iglesias. Add in Jeimer Candelario and his .351 wOBA if you go full bore Tigers tonight.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nicholas Castellanos, Jose Iglesias

Secondary Options – Niko Goodrum, Jeimer Candelario

Home Run Pick – Justin Upton and Jose Iglesias

DFS MLB – FanDuel Sample Lineup

P – Max Scherzer

C/1B – Ryon Healy 

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2B – Devon Travis

3B – Eugenio Suarez

SS – Jose Iglesias

OF – Starling Marte, Matt Kemp, Brandon Guyer

Utility – Justin Turner 

There’s a lot of pitching options that I’m interested in but Scherzer feels the safest in cash games tonight. This almost feels like a trick because I didn’t really have any issues building a lineup that I like to go with Scherzer. Healy is in a great spot against Colon and his sinker, as is Travis versus Pomeranz. No matter what happens today, I will have 100 percent Suarez. The only way he’s not in my lineup is if he’s not in the Reds lineup. I feel confident in what Iglesias has shown against lefties to play him and then I have a nice mix if value and standouts in the outfield. Slotting a super cheap Turner in at the end fits perfectly with everything else.

The Core – Eugenio Suarez, Devon Travis, Dodger value

Pitching Options 

High End – Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, Rich Hill

Mid-Range – Nick Pivetta, Miles Mikolas, Chase Anderson

Punt – Brad Keller(deep GPP and don’t look at his score until after the game), Jameson Taillon if he gets a righty heavy lineup

Stacks to Consider – Washington Nationals, Toronto Blue Jays, Cleveland Indians, Cincinnati Reds, Mariners/Rangers game stack, Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers, Angels/Tigers stack

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.