DraftKings Main MLB Picks August 7: Who’s the best home ace?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Main MLB Picks August 7: Who’s the best home ace?
Despite the two games earlier today, we still have a big 14 games in our main DraftKings tournament. The second game of the double dip between the Nationals and Braves is in here as well, so watch out for resting players in that one. The full slate provides quite a few good pitchers out there tonight. Who is worth paying for? Let’s check it out!
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Rain could push the start back and cause an in game delay in Chicago, but I do think the game gets finished. Just keep an eye on this. The forecast looked bleak for that game in the morning, but by an hour before first pitch we knew it was safe to use pitchers. The same could be true tonight. There is a slight chance of a delay in Kansas City, so be on the lookout for that as well.
The wind is blowing out at 12 mph to left in New York, and there is a lot of right handed power in that game. The Reds could get some added oomph out of the wind. The wind is blowing out to left again in Oakland, but again, the ballpark design means that it doesn’t really matter.
We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on!
For you first time players, if you would like $20 in free DraftKings dollars, use this link for the referral bonus with your first deposit of $5 or more! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn those DraftKings dollars into more!
Top Tier:
Carlos Carrasco ($11,500): The Twins have been hit and miss, mostly miss, lately. Carrasco dominated them in Minneapolis in his last outing, so he may not be as good this time around considering his ERA is over two runs worse at home. Even though the Twins are hitting .278 against Carrasco, they only have two homers and nine runs in 133 at bats with a staggering 46 strikeouts. This is why Carrasco is worth it. That strikeout potential is right up there with Max, and he is $2,400 cheaper.
Zack Greinke ($10,100): I’m a little torn here. The Phillies are hitting .326 with a homer and 16 runs in just 86 at bats agianst Greinke, but he has dominated at home. Greinke has a 2.44 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in his 12 home starts. I think we can put aside his subpar start in Philly earlier this year. Grienke is worth starting any time he takes the hill in Arizona.
Rich Hill ($9,500): Hill’s numbers on the season are keeping his price down, but he has a 2.36 ERA over his last ten starts. This is more what we expect from Hill. The poor start to the season still has him flying under some radars. He gets a huge park upgrade heading to Oakland, but he will need to keep the ball away from Oakland’s right handed power. There is a lot of it!
Miles Mikolas ($9,000): Mikolas racked up 27.4 DraftKings points against the Marlins earlier this season. He doesn’t have a lot of strikeout upside, but there is a nice park upgrade here. The Marlins aren’t really a team that strike out a ton either. This Marlins offense often runs hot and cold, so you never really know what’s going to happen. This seems like a fair price for Mikolas, but this is more for cash games. He doesn’t really have enough upside for GPP formats.
Middle Tier:
Andrew Heaney ($8,800): Heaney’s numbers aren’t all that great, but his home numbers are. Heaney has a 2.44 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in ten home starts this year. The Tigers offense does have some righties in it, but none of them are really scary. Heaney should have another dominant home starts here at a pretty reasonable price.
Nick Pivetta ($8,400): Pivetta is the ultimate GPP play. He racks up a ton of strikeouts, but he has a 4.75 ERA. You are taking a big risk here. However, Pivetta has done pretty well against righties, and the Arizona righties have struggled at home. Just ask Goldschmidt. The strikeout upside can’t be ignored, and the humidor is a thing in Arizona. It is slowly turning this place into a pitcher’s park. There is quite a bit of hidden potential here.
Chase Anderson ($7,800): I am a bit nervous since Anderson has struggled at home this year, but his last three home starts have been solid against pretty good teams. The Padres don’t pose much of a threat, especially since almost all of this lineup is right handed. The Padres are hitting a miserable .154 in 52 at bats against Anderson with just four runs and 12 strikeouts. Anderson is a great SP2 option, and you can even use him as your SP1 if you don’t mind the fact that he may not hit 20.
Bargain Pitchers:
Jameson Taillon ($7,100): We saw the enigmatic Joe Musgrove shut down the Rockies last night, and Taillon is a MUCH better pitcher. I suddenly really like this option! Taillon has settled down lately. He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start in two months, and I doubt that changes here. Taillon should be able to rack up enough strikeouts to give him a solid total even if the Rockies get to him. There is a lot of potential for the price.
Tyler Glasnow ($6,900): Glasnow looked good in his Rays debut, but he only went three innings. The problem here is that we have no idea if the Rays are going to use him as an opener or an actual starter. The Orioles are a mess, so there is a load of potential at the price even if Glasnow only goes five innings. Judging by how the Rays handle their pitchers though, this seems like a massive risk for no real reason.
Sal Romano ($5,600): Homer got whacked by the Mets last night even though he showed up here. There is always a chance that happens again, but Romano had his best start of the season against the Mets earlier this year. Romano picked up 22.5 DraftKings points in that one. That said, Romano is a powder keg, and you are just as likely to wind up with negatives as with 20 DraftKings points. However, with what happened to Homer last night, we are assured low ownership here. Romano has held the Mets to a .214 average with 11 strikeouts in 32 at bats. There is pretty good potential here.
Boston Red Sox vs. Marcus Stroman:
The roller coaster for Stroman continues. After two good outings, he got knocked around in Oakland. His three earned runs in five innings against Boston just before the break mark one of his better starts of the season. The bad news? Stroman has been even worse at home than on the road. There are plenty of Boston bats to attack with starting with Betts and J.D. Martinez. Xander Bogaerts could be a bargain at $4,200 considering he has homered twice against Stroman and has a .379 average in 29 at bats. Moreland, Benintendi, and Steve Pearce are all hitting .400 or better off of Stroman. Oh, and he has never retired Sandy Leon. There are a lot of different ways you can go with this one.
Cleveland Indians vs. Adalberto Mejia:
Hey Mike, didn’t Mejia only allow one hit in five shutout innings against the Tribe in his last start? Why yes. Yes he did. So what gives? The Indians destroyed Kyle Gibson last night after he had a strong outing against them at home last week. The Cleveland offense is on fire, especially at home. Jose Ramirez is very expensive, but should be worth it. You can recoup some of that by using Brandon Guyer against a lefty. Lindor hits lefties well enough that he should be in there as well. Edwin and Rajai Davis are worth a look as well.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Jason Vargas:
This is tanking at it’s finest when the Mets keep throwing Vargas and his 8.23 ERA out there. The Reds took him for four runs in four innings earlier this year. Expect at least that much damage tonight. Eugenio Suarez has four RBI in six at bats against Vargas already, so he starts this off. Philip Ervin looks like a nice option as well. The speed of Peraza and Billy Hamilton would be a nice add, and I really like Tucker Barnhart batting second.
Texas Rangers vs. Felix Hernandez:
Felix is in the worst stretch of his career, and there is no end in sight. Texas isn’t usually an offense I would target, but they have a lot of power against a well below average pitcher right now. Elvis Andrus has a staggering 16 RBI in his career against King Felix. Odor and Choo have each homered off of him twice. Beltre has a homer, but I don’t know that I trust him. It seems safer to go with Jurickson Profar and the immense power of Joey Gallo.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chad Bettis:
Bettis has an astronomical 8.75 ERA in seven home starts. You want to know the kicker? He still hasn’t lost one of those games! Coors essentially turns Bettis into Vargas, so we are stacking Pirates here. Marte, Polanco, and Dickerson join the elite plays. Colin Moran and the value of Jordy Mercer look pretty good as well. I’m not sure that I want to pay up for Freese.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Jacob Turner:
The Angels have hammered Jacob Turner, even if it has been a while since they faced him. The Angels are hitting .349 with six homers and 13 runs in just 43 at bats! Pujols has three of those homers. Upton has two, and Trout has the other one. I also like the suddenly hot Andrelton Simmons here, and I certainly wont talk you off of Ohtani. I’ll be shocked if Turner makes it five innings.
Top Tier:
Sean Newcomb is way overpriced tonight. I’m not sure that I’m going to attack him, but I’m not going to use him against a team that he has allowed 11 runs to in only 44 at bats. Anthony Rendon has five RBI is six at bats! Bryce Harper and Mark Reynolds have homered off of him as well.
For whatever reason, Pablo Lopez has struggled at home. I would attack him with Matt Carpenter for sure. Paul DeJong looks pretty good as well, but the rest of this offense is too inconsistent to rely on.
Once again, Nelson Cruz looks like an elite option because Bartolo Colon is getting thumped by righties. Ryon Healy, Zunino, and Mitch Haniger are good picks too, and I’m not opposed to stacking this side of the game either. There could be a lot of runs in Arlington tonight.
I don’t know that Reynaldo Lopez has been poor enough to stack against, but I would like some left handed exposure here. Didi Gregorius is the guy to really go after here with Bird and Andujar serving as reasonably priced options.
I really don’t trust Brad Keller, but I don’t think the Cubs go nuts on him either. I’m only looking for power potential here, which would put Rizzo, Schwarber, and Javier Baez on my list.
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Middle Tier:
Max Scherzer has pitched pretty well against the Braves this year, but pretty well wont do it for that lofty price. Scherzer has averaged 21.7 DraftKings points in his three starts against Atlanta. That’s not enough for nearly $14,000. Freddie Freeman has homered twice off of Scherzer. If I play anyone from this side, it’s him.
As is often the case with the Rays, I kind of want to stack them, but I have no idea where to go. Cron and Bauers are the best picks. Everything after that is a crap shoot. Kiermaier and Mallex Smith could be solid too.
I can’t think of any Phillie that I really want to play tonight, but if you are inclined to chase lower ownership, Odubel Herrera has the homer against Greinke.
David Peralta smacked two homers in last night’s marathon. Pivetta has struggled against lefties, so I’m all over Peralta here.
Clayton Richard has been an absolute disaster lately, but he is still dominating lefties. For me that takes Thames, Shaw, and maybe even Yelich out of play. I would much rather go with Cain and Braun with Aguilar if you really want to take a shot at him breaking out of his slump. Otherwise, Jonathan Schoop has looked very good so far in his new digs.
CC Sabathia really hasn’t been that good on the road, and the White Sox have tons of right handed power. I wouldn’t really get carried away here as there are better places to chase offense, but the power/speed combo of Tim Anderson could play well here, and Jose Abreu still isn’t cooling off.
I’m not sure that I want any Met here, but Michael Conforto seems to be the most reasonably priced if you want to take a crack at Romano.
Sean Manaea has been solid at home, and even pitched pretty well against the Dodgers earlier this year. However, he doesn’t strike out enough batters to live up to his price, and there is a lot of right handed power in this Dodger lineup. Manny Machado is my favorite play here with lefty killer Kike Hernandez, Brian Dozier, and Matt Kemp not far behind.
This is pretty much the typical Marlins vs. righties advice. Bour has good power potential, and Dietrich is a solid play.
Bargain Shoppers:
Drew Pomeranz got knocked around by the Jays earlier this year, and nothing he has done before or since says it wont happen again. Russell Martin and Luke Maile have the homers. I like Teoscar Hernandez and Kendrys Morales here as well.
If I’m using any Twin tonight, it’s Joe Mauer. He is 14-35 with a home, nine runs, and three RBI off of Carlos Carrasco.
If I go after Rich Hill, it’s not going to be with Davis or Lowrie. It will be with Mark Canha. Canha destroys lefties, and is just $3,800.
The Royals offense is lousy, and Mike Montgomery hasn’t been much better. To me, Merrifield is way overpriced here. I would much rather go after Montgomery with value plays, if at all. Alcides Escobar and Jorge Bonifacio would be my picks, and only to save money. For those of you thinking about using Montgomery, you can probably do better. His price is too inflated, and he doesn’t strike out hardly anyone.
The only Tiger that I would even consider tonight is Nick Castellanos, and I’m not all that crazy about him.
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