Kawhi Leonard’s arrival in Toronto threatens Giannis Antetokounmpo’s place atop the Eastern Conference following LeBron James’ departure.
When LeBron James left the Cleveland Cavaliers to join the Los Angeles Lakers this summer, Giannis Antetokounmpo was poised to take over as the Eastern Conference’s new top dog.
Then the Raptors traded for Kawhi Leonard, throwing a huge wrench into that plan.
With all due respect to Joel Embiid, Kyrie Irving and John Wall, the competition for the best player in the East is a two-man race between Antetokounmpo and Leonard. The former may be the chic pick due to his MVP-caliber performance this past season, but anyone sleeping on the latter is likely falling victim to recency bias.
Which one deserves to sit in James’ abdicated throne? Let’s weigh the cases for both.
The case for Giannis
Here’s the full list of players in NBA history to have ever averaged at least 26 points, 10 rebounds, four assists and 1.5 steals in a season, as Antetokounmpo did last year:
- Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1975-76)
- Larry Bird (1984-85)
- Charles Barkley (1990-91)
- David Robinson (1993-94)
- Russell Westbrook (2016-17)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (2017-18)
Not bad company, eh?
Giannis is basically a cheat-code version of an NBA2K create-a-player. Near-7-footers aren’t supposed to run the floor in transition and handle the ball like guards, nor should they be capable of defending everything from point guards to centers. Even in this era of young unicorn big men, the Greek Freak is one of a kind.
Antetokounmpo’s transformation from high-upside prospect to world-devouring megastar began in 2015-16, when then-head coach Jason Kidd installed him as the Bucks’ de facto floor general for the final few months of the year. He took off with his point-forward role and never looked back, boosting his assist rate from the low teens to the low-to-mid 20s over the ensuing two-and-a-half seasons.
The Greek Freak has steadily improved over each of his five NBA seasons, and he won’t turn 24 until December. He already ranked among the top 10 league wide in a host of advanced metrics last year—from player efficiency rating (fifth), offensive win shares (sixth) and total win shares (sixth) to value over replacement player (seventh) and box plus/minus (10th)—and he set new career highs in PER (27.3) and usage rate (31.2).
The lone hole in Antetokounmpo’s game is his lack of a consistent 3-point shot. He’s a career 28.4 percent shooter from deep, and last season marked only the second time he’s hit at least 30 percent of his triples. It speaks volumes that he’s already so dominant despite not being a threat from long range, but he’d become legitimately unguardable if he did start stroking treys more consistently.
Until then, he’ll just have to settle for laying waste to opponents in any other number of ways.
The case for Kawhi
Before Leonard’s 2017-18 season went up in flames due to a mysterious quadriceps injury limiting him to just nine appearances, he was quickly establishing himself as one of the NBA’s top players.
During the 2016-17 campaign, Leonard set new career highs in points (25.5), assists (3.5) and 3-pointers (2.0) while chipping in 5.8 rebounds, 1.8 steals and 0.7 blocks in only 33.4 minutes per game. He tallied higher marks in PER, win shares, box plus/minus and VORP that year than Antetokounmpo did this past season, and he had a higher steal percentage and lower turnover percentage, too.
Unlike the Greek Freak, opponents have to respect Leonard from deep. He banged home 38.0 percent of his career-high 387 long-range attempts in 2016-17, and he’s a career 38.6 percent 3-point shooter across his seven-year NBA tenure. Leonard shot at least 37.0 percent from downtown in all but one of his first six years in the league, on the same if not higher volume that Antetokounmpo has routinely attempted.
And while Giannis has four extra inches on Kawhi, the latter is a two-time Defensive Player of the Year and a four-time member of the All-Defensive team. Armed with a pterodactyl-esque 7-foot-3 wingspan and massive 9.75-inch hands—tied for the longest at the NBA draft combine in 2011—Leonard is an outright terror as a one-on-one defender. Just ask Sacramento Kings guard Ben McLemore, who’s perhaps one of his most infamous victims.
When healthy, Leonard is a top-five player league wide, bar none. However, that “when healthy” caveat looms large at the moment.
The verdict
Until we see Leonard back to his old self—and not the limited-minutes facsimile he was last season—Antetokounmpo deserves the title of best player in the East. That isn’t to say Kawhi can’t usurp the Greek Freak at some point this season, though.
Leonard may have been better in 2016-17 than Antetokounmpo was last season, but he’ll have nearly a year’s worth of rust to knock off and new teammates with whom he must acquaint himself. The Raptors may decide it wise to ease him back into action rather than throwing him headfirst into 35-plus minutes per night right away.
If (when?) Leonard does get back up to speed, this will be a much closer contest. The talent he’s surrounded by in Toronto will reduce the burden on him, allowing him to play to his strengths. Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka and Jonas Valanciunas can help shoulder some of the scoring load in the starting lineup, while Leonard, Danny Green and OG Anunoby turn into a whirling dervish of smothering limbs on defense.
Then again, Antetokounmpo may only scraping the surface of his ceiling, too.
With new head coach Mike Budenholzer guiding the way, the Greek Freak could be in for his best season yet, which is difficult to fathom. If the bulk he’s added this summer helps him become an even more lethal finisher around the rim, he’ll be damn near impossible to stop defensively. And if his 3-point percentage improves, remove the “damn near” from that last sentence.
Though James is no longer ruling the East, the conference remains in good hands with Antetokounmpo and Leonard in place. If they stay healthy, both of them could be in the mix for Most Valuable Player this season.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com or Basketball Reference.