MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Tuesday August 7
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Going into last night’s slate the prevailing theme seemed to be load up on as many bats as you could as we had elite hitting spots in Coors and Texas and high upside pivots with the Yankees, Indians and Cubs. Well MLB DFS is funny that way, as when the night ended 9 of the top 12 fantasy point performers were starting pitchers, exactly as we all assumed. Personally I had a really strong night with a Trevor Bauer/Wei-Yin Chen combo and went with an Indians/Mariners stack and avoided Coors (outside of the Dahl chalk) which ended up working out quite nicely as that game ended in a 2-0 Rockies win.
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Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Starting Pitching Overview:
At first glance looking over this slate you will see a handful of top-tier arms on the hill including Max Scherzer and Sean Newcomb facing off against each other, Carlos Carrasco on the road in Minnesota and Zack Greinke at home against the Phillies and I honestly cannot say I love any of these spots. I have massive amounts of respect for the Nationals and Braves offenses and do not want to pay a premium to attack them, we know Carrasco has significant home/road splits and has been knocked around in two of his previous three starts against the Twins and the Phillies offense, although it can strikeout a ton, is also one that is very dangerous.
The other issue within the context of this slate is that there are not really any great cheap(er) stacks that I see which means allocating salary to pitching may not be the best use of our salary cap on this slate.
That leads me to what I assume will be a very popular mid-tier choice in Chase Anderson ($15K) who gets a home start against the San Diego Padres. Over his last 8 starts, Anderson has pitched to a 2.03 ERA with a 24.3% K rate and 10.1% swinging strike rate, while putting up double-digit fantasy points in every outing, averaging 17.5 FantasyDraft points per start. No team in baseball has a higher K rate against right-handed pitching than San Diego with a 25.9% mark so this looks to be not only a safe run prevention spot but also a match-up where Anderson could hit his ceiling (think 20-25 FPTS). My guess is that this is a popular SP2 play tonight considering Anderson is the third largest favorite (-190) on the board, but his floor/ceiling combination for the price/match-up make him the kind of chalk I am OK eating if it comes to that – I simply do not see it being a spot where he burns you.
Pablo Lopez ($11K) gets a home start against the Cardinals, is a similar home underdog much like Wei-Yin Chen was last night and my guess is that people will have more interest in his opponent, Miles Mikolas than in using him much like we saw with Flaherty/Chen last night. If Chen was single digit owned in GPP’s on Monday, I have a tough time believing Lopez will garner anything more and yet this looks to be a great spot for him if you need a punt pitcher to pay up for bats.
Lopez on the season has some strong numbers on the surface – a 54.4% GB rate, 10.2% swinging strike rate and only a 27% hard contact rate which when you layer on that he is pitching in a huge pitcher’s park in Miami, only adds to his appeal here tonight. Lopez outside of two bad starts against the Nationals has been very solid with a 23% K rate in his other four starts where he has averaged over 18 fantasy points per start.
After a night on Monday where pitching ruled the slate, I think Tuesday is a night you build around bats and by paying down with guys like Anderson/Lopez, you can get a path to the big time bats you covet.
MLB DFS – Top Hitting Options:
Let’s start here – we have another night with Coors Field and a hot night in Texas with Bartolo Colon/Felix Hernandez on the hill in the year 2018 and an 11.5 run projection so the chalk build is to go with these spots first but do we have pivots?
Honestly, I cannot find one I like.
I was all-in on the Indians last night at home but tonight against a LHP in Aldaberto Mejia who has limited HC (23%), I am not sure this is the match-up I would pivot to. The Cubs have a high run total but Brad Keller is a high ground ball arm (55%) in a pitcher’s park in KC and although the Yankees have a similar run total, there is nothing about Reynaldo Lopez that screams stack this up. The Brewers are the one team I have interest in for GPP’s against LHP Clayton Richard but look at the prices for these guys – the stack will cost you basically the same as Coors or Texas (meaning it will be super low-owned) but outside of a large GPP this feels like a crazy use of my salary.
So it brings me back to Bartolo Colon and Felix Hernandez, a near 12 run total and two pitchers whose metrics support an all out assault of a stack here. Felix Hernandez is giving up a .234 ISO to LHB this season and a 38.1% HC rate and will face a Rangers team with three lefties in Rougned Odor, Shin-Soo Choo and Joey Gallo who all have .210 or higher ISO marks against RHP this season.
Bartolo Colon on the other side of this game has seen the right-handers get the best of him with a .283 ISO and 48% HC rate which means go ahead and fire up the Mariners stack of Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger and Ryon Healy who all have .209 or higher ISO marks against RHP this season and you can complete the stack with Kyle Seager and his .204 ISO mark against RHP as well.
Not only is this stack expensive, but it will also be popular so there is always merit to a fade in tournaments but I am not sure there are any two worse pitchers on the slate (with all due respect to my boy Jason Vargas) than Felix and Big Sexy. Sometimes you eat the chalk – I think this is one of those times.
Speaking of Jason Vargas – my absolute favorite play on this slate may be Eugenio Suarez from the Reds in what seems to be a massive game incoming. On the season, Vargas is giving up .267 ISO and 37% HC rate to RHB and Suarez on the year has an elite .333 ISO with a 58% HC rate versus lefties. Against RHB this season, Vargas throws a sinker and change-up to right-handed batters nearly 70% of the time and Vargas as a .333 and .714 ISO mark against those pitch types against LHP in 2018 – this is the best one-off play on the board tonight and will be someone I look to use around Mariners/Rangers game stacks.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
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SP: Chase Anderson ($15K)
SP: Pablo Lopez ($11K)
IF: Rougned Odor ($10.3K)
IF: Joey Gallo ($9.7K)
IF: Kyle Seager ($8K)
OF: Nelson Cruz ($10.3K)
OF: Shin-Soo Choo ($9.1K)
OF: Mitch Haniger ($9.1K)
UTIL: Ryon Healy ($7.8K)
UTIL: Eugenio Suarez ($9.6K)
Slate Overview: This feels like the chalk build with a Texas/Mariners stack and Chase Anderson – maybe I am wrong but even so, it feels like the right chalk to eat. To be honest, the Mariners were not nearly as popular as I thought they would be last night – looking at the FantasyDraft $25 GPP – Kyle Seager and Ryon Healy were 19% owned while my Indians studs – Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez were 22% and 26% respectively so maybe the Mariners/Rangers aren’t this slam dunk chalk I assumed. Today feels like a day to build around offense and find the value pitchers to make the builds work, essentially the opposite of how last night played out – but let’s see if recency bias plays a role and has folks scrambling to pay up at pitcher. Good luck all.
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