Evaluating Championship promotion favorites after matchweek 1

The Championship season kicked off last weekend. Here’s a closer look at five of the promotion favorites after their first matches.

Relegation. It’s the most dreaded word in all of European soccer. It’s opposite, promotion, is a boon to a club of any size. Last season, for the first time ever, none of the 16 newly-promoted teams in England’s top five divisions were relegated.

Such a staggering feat is unlikely to be repeated any time soon, but with the Championship having kicked off last week, a look at the favorites to achieve promotion is in order. The easiest teams to peg for promotion are the three teams unfortunate enough to have been relegated from the Premier League last term: Stoke, Swansea and West Brom.

These three teams may have endured terrible 2017-18 seasons, and have had to deal with the loss of some of their best talents to clubs whose fortunes were not so foul (notables include Xherdan Shaqiri, Alfie Mawson and Jonny Evans). However, they do have a significant leg up on the rest of the division. The parachute payments system, under which relegated teams receive upwards of £40 million, helps offset the loss of revenue relegation brings.

While that might only be enough money to afford one of Neymar’s leg’s, researchers have shown the payments, which run out after three years, could be worth up to six points. However, such financial windfall isn’t a guarantee of success, as Sunderland became the most recent team to prove last season.

One club receiving the last of their parachute payments this year, Aston Villa, endured a bit of a rocky offseason after their playoff defeat last May, are among among the favorites to secure promotion. They opened the season with a 3-1 victory over Hull on Monday.

Twenty-two teams (including West Brom, who have done it twice) have been relegated from the Premier League and gone right back up.

For the Baggies, one point in their first two matches, a loss to relegation favorites Bolton and a draw against Nottingham Forest, means anxiety will already by creeping in. Things went better for Swansea on the opening weekend, as they beat Sheffield United 2-1.

Stoke, meanwhile, lost 3-1 to trendy promotion pick Leeds, who are now headed by superstar manager Marcelo Bielsa. The Potters never really looked like getting into the game, as  Leeds had scored all of their goals by the hour mark.

This strong performance will bolster the expectation on Bielsa to deliver the goods and get the club, who were in the Champions League semifinals as recently as 2001, back into the top flight for the first time in 14 years.