PGA Championship 2018: Predictions, picks and upsets

The top five players in the world

Here’s a look at the top five players in the world rankings and how they could fare this week at the PGA Championship.

1. Dustin Johnson

World No. 1 Dustin Johnson comes into Bellerive on a bit of a hot streak following that mishap at The Open Championship. He missed the weekend by a few strokes with rounds of 76 and 72 at Carnoustie but worked out the kinks and came back strong with a victory at the RBC Canadian Open in his next outing, shooting 68-66-65-66 to finish at 23-under for the week and winning by three. He followed that up with a tie for third at this past week’s WGC-Bridgestone Invitational that included a final-round 64 that vaulted him up the leaderboard on Sunday. His length and underrated accuracy and willingness to adapt to the course are all huge assets this week. If not for that bunker situation in 2010 at Whistling Straits, we might be sitting here talking about DJ going for his second PGA Championship win but he could easily pick up that Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday afternoon.

2. Justin Thomas

Speaking of coming in hot, defending champion Justin Thomas, who also missed the cut at Carnoustie, heads to Bellerive riding the high of a fantastic victory this past weekend in Akron at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. Thomas withstood small runs by just about everyone on the leaderboard on Sunday but was the only one to stay the course and finish things off at Firestone, picking up his third win of the season and getting back to number two in the world rankings and the FedExCup standings. He’s going to need to be a little more accurate with the driver than he’s been this season — he ranks 148th in that category — but if he can keep the ball even close to being in play, he’s going to be right there. He ranks third on the PGA Tour in strokes gained/approach the green and scoring average and fifth in birdies per round. The biggest problem facing JT this week is history. Since the PGA Championship moved to stroke play in 1958, only one player has gone back-to-back at this tournament and that’s Tiger Woods, who’s done it twice. Thomas will actually tee it up alongside Tiger and Rory McIlroy on Thursday and Friday. Think anyone will be following that group?

3. Justin Rose

Remember when Justin Rose had to make a putt on his 36th hole just to make the cut at The Open Championship and then went out and blistered Carnoustie with 64-69 on the weekend to nearly win? Yeah, that’s kind of what he does. Arguably the most consistent player in the world these days, Rose hasn’t finished outside the top 10 in his last five outings, including that tie for second at Carnoustie and a win at Colonial. However, the fact that he had to withdraw from the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational with back spasms can’t just be ignored. It isn’t believed to be anything serious and if that were a major, you would think he would have at least given it a go. Resting up for the PGA Championship was probably the smart move and if he’s healthy, he’s going to be in the mix. That’s just what Justin Rose does. We should know early on how his back holds up.

4. Brooks Koepka

It’s major championship time so that means it’s time for Brooks Koepka to come out and play. Okay, he finished tied for 39th at The Open Championship after winning his second consecutive U.S. Open title. But let’s be honest. Carnoustie beat up a lot of the top players in the world a few weeks ago. Koepka played well this past week in Akron, finishing in solo fifth at Firestone, which he certainly needed after missing the cut in Canada. This is just Koepka’s 20th appearance at a major championship and the only cuts he’s missed were the first two. Since then, he’s racked up seven top-10 finishes, including those two U.S. Open victories. In five PGA Championship outings, he’s finished out of the top 15 only once and finished tied for fifth in 2015, tied for fourth in 2016 and tied for 13th a year ago at Quail Hollow. He’s had a bit of trouble outside of the majors in approaching the greens and that could hinder him this week at Bellerive.

5. Rory McIlroy

This week marks the four-year anniversary of Rory McIlroy’s last major championship victory and he’s coming closer and closer to looking like the player that had four major wins at just 25 years of age. Okay, he’s admittedly burned fans all year who picked him to win all three previous majors this season but outside of the U.S. Open, he’s been right there. His final round at The Masters took him out of contention but he still finished in the top five and was right there towards the end at Carnoustie as well, coming up just a little short but still tying for second at The Open Championship. He just tied for sixth this past weekend in Akron with another strong performance, a performance that got him back into the top five in the world rankings for the first time in nearly a year. He struggled a bit on Sunday but he’s so close. If he can just reel in a couple things, including his putter, he’s going to get major win number five.