DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Thursday, August 9

Welcome into the Thursday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have a smaller six game slate tonight so let’s get down to it!

It’s almost never a bad night when the lineup goes over 160 points and it feels pretty decent when most of it was the sample that got laid out. If we hadn’t gotten three zeroes in the lineup, we might have had a shot at 200 but it wasn’t meant to be last night. Let’s get into this smaller DFS MLB slate!

DFS MLB – Rangers at Yankees

Rangers Probable Starter – Ariel Jurado, RHP 

4.02 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 10.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .217 average, .304 wOBA, 11.5 K rate, 30.0 fly ball rate and 45.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .250 average, .294 wOBA, 10.5 K rate, 37.5 fly ball rate and 37.5 hard hit rate

Jurado really screams regression to me. The only way you can survive long-term as a pitcher with a strikeout rate this low is with an extremely elite ground ball rate. Jurado has not shown that so far even though he’s throwing his sinker over 60 percent of the time to each side of the plate. Gleyber Torres is a really attractive option here because he’s the active leader in ISO at a .245 mark against righty pitching and he destroys righty sinkers with a .661 xwOBA against that pitch. That’s 75 percent of the pitches to right-handed hitters for Jurado so Torres is going to get ample chances at it. Aaron Hicks is no slouch either with a monster .525 xwOBA and a .181 ISO and .346 wOBA. Sooner or later, Jurado is going to get waxed.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Gleyber Torres, Aaron Hicks, Didi Gregorius

Secondary Options – Giancarlo Stanton, Greg Bird

Yankees Probable Starter – J.A. Happ, LHP 

4.05 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 26.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .178 average, .229 wOBA, 26.8 K rate, 24.2 fly ball rate and 26.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .235 average, .309 wOBA, 26.5 K rate, 43.6 fly ball rate and 30.1 hard hit rate

Through 72 at-bats, Happ has pretty much owned the Rangers hitters to the tune of a .139 average, one home run and a .264 xwOBA. That’s not the most surprising stat line ever considering the Texas lineup can skew lefty heavy. The one major pause I have with Happ is giving up a ton of fly balls to the righty hitters and that’s led to a 1.50 HR/9 to that handedness. Yankee Stadium isn’t where you want to put balls into the air and there are a couple hitters that you can use in tournaments especially. Robinson Chirinos is rocking a .257 ISO and hits lefty fastballs well with a .367 ISO against that particular pitch. Happ throws that 50 percent of the time to righties and the only hitch is Chirinos has a 34.2 strikeout rate. That’s not exactly safe for cash games but it’s major upside for GPP, especially since catchers go under-owned on FanDuel. Jurickson Profar is more expensive and might come with a safer floor since his strikeout rate is about 24 percent lower. He also hammers lefty fastballs with a .431 xwOBA and a .267 ISO. The .355 wOBA overall is a pretty nice cherry on top.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jurickson Profar, Robinson Chirinos

Secondary Options – Elvis Andrus, Adrian Beltre

Home Run Pick – Jurickson Profar and Gleyber Torres

DFS MLB – Red Sox at Blue Jays

Red Sox Probable Starter – Rick Porcello, RHP 

3.84 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 22.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .227 average, .302 wOBA, 26.7 K rate, 41.9 fly ball rate and 40.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .247 average, .290 wOBA, 19.7 K rate, 30.1 fly ball rate and 26.3 hard hit rate

Porcello has been significantly better on the road and he’s actually not a bad play tonight. The last time he pitched against the Jays, he got wrecked for eight earned runs. Since that was recent, people who game log hunt will likely head the other way. I typically want the lefties against Porcello but on the road, he’s allowing a .198 average and a .257 wOBA with just two home runs in over 30 innings. The only two hitters worth a play in my mind are Kendrys Morales and Justin Smoak. Morales is cheaper and does have a .203 ISO and a .391 xwOBA against Porcello but the number one option is paying up for Smoak. He’s been a Porcello slayer in his career, with five bombs in 37 at-bats and a .441 xwOBA. Smoak also has the bonus of being much better against righty pitching. A cheap Curtis Granderson could be in play as part of a three man stack but I’m not sure I’m in love with him and his 27.5 strikeout rate.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Justin Smoak

Secondary Options – Kendrys Morales, Curtis Granderson

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Ryan Borucki, LHP 

2.30 EERA, 1.26 WHIP and 16.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .268 average, .281 wOBA, 14.3 K rate, 25.7 fly ball rate and 22.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .246 average, .381 wOBA, 17.1 K rate, 35.6 fly ball rate and 27.4 hard hit rate

I put together this far into the article and just now realized it’s Steve Pearce REVENGE NIGHT! He gets a lefty on the hill who miraculously has not given up a home run yet but that has to change sooner or later. We have to keep in mind that the numbers with the Sox are skewed simply because of the small sample size but let’s run them down anyways for fun. Borucki is basically a four seam/changeup pitcher to righty hitters. With the Sox, Pearce carries a .571 ISO and .615 xwOBA against those pitches. In addition, his overall ISO is .474, the OPS is 1.513 and the wOBA is .615. Anything else you need for $3,500? Yeah, me neither. Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez also rake against lefties and are great options, it’s just the cost involved with them. Betts once again gets the edge because every stat we just went over for Pearce is higher for Betts. It’s really just those three hitters for me from the Sox tonight, but the three man stack could prove to be lethal.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Steve Pearce, Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Options – Three Man Stack

Home Run Pick – Steve Pearce makes the Jays feel the flames of revenge

ST PETERSBURG, FL – JULY 1: Joey Wendle #18 of the Tampa Bay Rays celebrates with Jake Bauers #9 and Adeiny Hechavarria #11 after scoring in the seventh inning against the Houston Astros on July 1, 2018 at Tropicana Field in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

DFS MLB – Orioles at Rays

Orioles Probable Starter – David Hess, RHP 

6.41 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and 14.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .287 average, .376 wOBA, 16.0 K rate, 48.3 fly ball rate and 30.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .275 average, .369 wOBA, 12.2 K rate, 50.0 fly ball rate and 34.0 hard hit rate

Hess is one of the worst pitchers in baseball and that’s really not an exaggeration. He leans on his four seamer a lot and that’s likely going to get him into trouble. There’s two hitters that we’ll focus on first, for opposite reasons. The first is Jake Bauers. Hess uses the fastball 63 percent of the time and Bauers is destroying that pitch from righties with a .404 ISO and a .470 xwOBA to go along with his overall .254 ISO. He’s on red alert to leave the yard and I might play Mallex Smith again as well. He’s going to lead off almost for sure so he should already have a single and a stolen base for when Bauers comes to bat. After Bauers hits one about 420 feet, they’ll both come home for free and that’ll be worth about 34 points in one big swing of the bat. Smith continued to be a terror on the base paths Wednesday night with two steals. C.J. Cron is a great play from the right side of the plate as well. He wrecks righty fastballs as well and he also hits the changeup too, which righties see about 40 percent of the time from Hess.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jake Bauers, Mallex Smith, C.J. Cron

Secondary Options – Matt Duffy, Joey Wendle

Rays Probable Starter – TBD 

We’re still waiting for the Tampa starter when I’m writing this so it’s likely a bullpen day. So, instead of trying to breakdown individual matchups, I’ll just highlight who’s been hot for the Orioles lately and….oh my, this is the first thing that I got back –

The whole team is just smoking right now. In the past 30 days, Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones, Tim Beckham and Joey Rickard are all over .250 for batting average and Beckham, Trumbo and Trey Mancini have at least four home runs. That doesn’t even count Jonathan Villar, who has hit .429 since arriving and kicked in a homer and a steal. The slate is too short to overlook the Orioles hitters. We’ll see who fits and makes sense when we build the lineup.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mark Trumbo, Trey Mancini, Jonathan Villar

Secondary Options – TBD

Home Run Pick – Jake Bauers

DFS MLB – Mariners at Astros

Mariners Probable Starter – James Paxton, LHP 

3.51 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 32.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .304 average, .359 wOBA, 35.0 K rate, 24.6 fly ball rate and 28.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .198 average, .260 wOBA, 31.3 K rate, 43.6 fly ball rate and 34.9 hard hit rate

This whole game is going to be a pretty easy breakdown because pitching should rule the day. Paxton shook off the rust last time out and now draws a very banged up Astros lineup. I would suspect that he has his way today but might be more of a tournament play with who’s on the other side of this game. In 144 at-bats, not one Astros hitter has ever hit a home run off of Paxton and they have a .253 xwOBA against him. You can take a stab at Alex Bregman and his .408 wOBA and .282 ISO against lefties but it’s not where I would go. Evan Gattis hasn’t started a game while the Astros were in N.L. parks so his timing has to be off a little bit. The one hitter who would be great for GPP because nobody will play him is Josh Reddick. Paxton has been terrible against lefties from an average and wOBA standpoint. Reddick has a .287 ISO, best on the team among regular players.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Alex Bregman, Josh Reddick

Astros Probable Starter – Justin Verlander, RHP 

2.19 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 33.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .183 average, .267 wOBA, 37.0 K rate, 53.7 fly ball rate and 27.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .198 average, .240 wOBA, 30.9 K rate, 51.4 fly ball rate and 29.2 hard hit rate

I don’t make a habit of targeting hitters against one of the best pitchers in baseball. The fly ball rate is always weird to me but it is what it is for Verlander. The only boom or bust hitter I’d think about for GPP is Nelson Cruz. He’s been warming up lately and Verlander strikes out righties at a lower clip. Cruz could run into one, but it’s not likely.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Nelson Cruz

Home Run Pick – Josh Reddick

DFS MLB – Dodgers at Rockies

Dodgers Probable Starter – Ross Stripling, RHP 

2.68 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 28.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .249 average, .283 wOBA, 30.5 K rate, 31.2 fly ball rate and 26.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .255 average, .311 wOBA, 25.4 K rate, 36.6 fly ball rate and 34.7 hard hit rate

Even with the work my Buccos pitching staff just did in Coors, using Stripling seems like a bold choice. It’s not even he was on the disabled list, because that was only about the minimum stay. He hadn’t pitched well in his two previous starts, giving up four or five runs in each. Hopefully it was just his toe that was causing the issues(for the sake of my seasonal teams as well, just sayin). My main concern for him in Coors is his curve has been his best pitch, only giving up a .110 ISO against it. I’m likely just going to stick with their best hitters against righty pitching here and that means David Dahl, Charlie Blackmon and then maybe sprinkle in Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story. Dahl and Blackmon are both over .235 in ISO and .360 in wOBA, while Arenado and Story tend to be better against lefties.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – David Dahl, Charlie Blackmon

Secondary Options – Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Carlos Gonzalez

Rockies Probable Starter – Tyler Anderson, LHP 

4.05 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 22.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .287 average, .367 wOBA, 22.7 K rate, 38.5 fly ball rate and 32.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .212 average, .293 wOBA, 22.4 K rate, 39.6 fly ball rate and 31.6 hard hit rate

We may want to proceed with little bit of caution here as Anderson has been a lot better in Coors Field this season. I might be down to two players that I would consider paying up for and one of them has been ice cold in Max Muncy. Fully knowing he’s been awful lately, Anderson struggles mightily against lefty hitters and Muncy has a .274 ISO and a .409 wOBA against them this season in 88 at-bats. He also destroys the four seam/cutter combo that he’ll see 74 percent of the time with an absurd .538 ISO and .580 xwOBA. The only hitter that tops three of those four numbers(wOBA being the only exception) is Matt Kemp. Even knowing that Anderson has been better at home, these two hitters should be able to get to him tonight.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Kemp, Max Muncy

Secondary Options – Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner, Yasmani Grandal, Brian Dozier, Manny Machado

Home Run Pick – Max Muncy and Matt Kemp

DFS MLB – Pirates at Giants

Pirates Probable Starter – Ivan Nova, RHP 

4.49 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 16.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .293 average, .367 wOBA, 11.4 K rate, 38.7 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .261 average, .323 wOBA, 22.0 K rate, 27.6 fly ball rate and 35.2 hard hit rate

I don’t think I could use him, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Nova thrive in this spot. The Giants offense has a top 10 strikeout rate at home, whiffing 22.7 percent of the time. They carry a bottom 10 ISO and are mid pack in a lot of other metrics other than average. The highest ISO against the four seam/sinker combo among regular players is Brandon Crawford at .205 and that is where Nova struggles. You can look at Joe Panik and Steven Duggar as well from the left side of the plate but the power potential is certainly a little low in this spot.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Brandon Crawford

Secondary Options – Joe Panik, Steven Duggar, Andrew McCutchen

Giants Probable Starter – Andrew Suarez, LHP 

4.60 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 20.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .202 average, .220 wOBA, 22.4 K rate, 18.2 fly ball rate and 26.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .301 average, .366 wOBA, 20.4 K rate, 31.1 fly ball rate and 44.0 hard hit rate

Being at home does help Suarez a decent amount but he’s still good for a 1.55 HR/9 to righty hitters. Walk With Elias Diaz still has the highest ISO among active players for the Bucs and he’s super cheap like always. The hitter I might be most interested in from this side of the game is David Freese. He’s been really productive against lefties lately and he steamrolls the pitch mix from Suarez with a .274 ISO and .469 wOBA against them. He’s also just $2,300 so you can’t even complain about the bad hitters park. I wouldn’t use Starling Marte right now. He did crank a homer in Coors but his approach at the plate has been putrid lately. He’s the type of hitter that goes through those spurts and I want to see him pull out of it before paying up again.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – David Freese, Walk With Elias, Francisco Cervelli

Secondary Options – Starling Marte, Jordy Mercer

Home Run Pick – David Freese

DFS MLB – FanDuel Sample Lineup

P – James Paxton 

C/1B – Steve Pearce 

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2B – Jonathan Villar

3B – David Freese 

SS – Jordy Mercer 

OF – Matt Kemp, Mallex Smith, David Dahl

Utility – Jake Bauers 

This lineup is pretty tempting to not pay all the way up for Verlander. We have Pearce, which is a Narrative Street lock and the stats back it up. Villar will hit high in the order against the mediocre Rays pitching and is excellent if he faces a lefty, so that helps quell that fear. Two cheap Bucco bats let’s us play two expensive Coors bats and then we finish it off with the Smith to Bauers connection.

The Core – Steve Pearce, Jake Bauers, Matt Kemp

Pitching Options 

High End – James Paxton, Justin Verlander

Mid-Range – Rick Porcello, J.A. Happ/Ivan Nova as GPP’s

Punt – None

Stacks to Consider – Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Rays/Orioles game stack, Coors stack

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.