MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Thursday, August 9th Evening Slates

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MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Thursday, August 9th Evening Slates

Welcome to a Thursday edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm or two might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.

Before we go MLB DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:

The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
In this DFS MLB Bargain Bin Quick Hits version, I’ll suggest players that are typically value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). Naturally, check final pricing before making your lineup decisions, as I am not listing salaries in this edition.
This is not a position-by-position breakdown, but rather, I’m just identifying games where I think there’s value players in potentially favorable fantasy spots.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on Thursday evening’s slates!

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Thursday, Aug. 9th Evening Slates Bargain Pitcher

Ryan Borucki, TOR vs. BOS

Rare is the night that I suggest a pitcher — bargain or otherwise — against the Red Sox, but that’s the case on Thursday’s six-game slate. It helps that the game isn’t at Fenway (although Rogers Centre is naturally a hitter-friendly environment in its own right), and it certainly doesn’t hurt that Borucki has been excellent thus far at the big-league level. The Mariners became his latest victims last Friday with his best outing yet — they mustered just four hits against him over eight scoreless innings on a night when he’d gotten the nod in this space as well.

Borucki now has three straight quality starts (against the Twins, White Sox and Mariners), and he’s accomplished the feat in five of his six trips to the mound. The one caveat lies in his one outing where he wasn’t as sharp, as that came against none other than this same Boston squad on July 13. However, that start came at Fenway, and it was only Borucki’s third overall. As evidenced in his turn against Seattle, he’s seemingly improving with each outing.

The numbers line up well for him Thursday, too. The Red Sox check in with a paltry .288 wOBA, 80 wRC+, -4.7 wRAA and .107 ISO against southpaws on the road over the last two months (218 plate appearances), along with a 24.3 percent strikeout rate. They’re also making hard contact versus lefties at a pedestrian 30.8 percent hard contact rate during that stretch, while hitting just two home runs, the second-lowest figure against southpaws on the road over that span.

The one downside with Borucki is that he doesn’t miss many bats, but he does keep hard contact to a minimum (26.2 percent) and is highly effective against both sides of the plate (.281 wOBA allowed to lefty hitters and .283 wOBA allowed to righty hitters). Plus, he simply doesn’t surrender home runs — he’s working on a 43-inning streak of not allowing the long ball to open his major-league career.

Due largely to matchup, Borucki is once again priced very reasonably across the industry Thursday and offers excellent and likely low-owned value potential on a modestly-sized slate.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Thursday, Aug. 9th Evening Slates Quick Hits

The Yankees’ J.A. Happ was very good in his first home start in the Big Apple, and he’s had success there in the past as a member of the Blue Jays. However, he also had a pretty plum assignment in the Royals for that debut Yankees outing, and the competition does get a bit stiffer in the form of the Rangers on Thursday. Still, Texas is striking out at an elevated 26.0 percent rate against southpaws on the road over the last month, and they’re generally a less intimidating team away from the friendly confines of their home park. Jurickson Profar, Joey Gallo and Robinson Chirinos are worth considering as value plays nonetheless, as they all hit lefties well. Chirinos also offers the benefit of a career .375 average (3-for-8) over eight career plate appearances against Happ.

On the other side, the Rangers’ Ariel Jurado has been effective in two of his first three starts, but he’ll be treading into dangerous territory in facing the Yankees on the road. Jurado has been solid against both sides of the plate thus far (.304 wOBA allowed to both left- and right-handed hitters), but I’d give the few Yankees bats that are reasonably priced and can hit righties well — Brett Gardner and Austin Romine — some consideration. The switch-hitting Neil Walker can be considered here as well, as can Greg Bird, who owns a .386 CXwOBA against right-handed pitching despite just a .293 wOBA versus that handedness overall.

The Blue Jays don’t really boast a successful history against Red Sox starter Rick Porcello on an individual level, but he’s shown some vulnerability to right-handed hitters on the road. Porcello has allowed a .279 average and .315 wOBA to righty bats away from Fenway, including 11 extra-base hits (eight doubles, three homers). The duo of Teoscar Hernandez and Aledmys Diaz hit right-handed pitching very well, but the switch-hitting Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales can also be considered despite hitting from the left side against Porcello. Smoak and Morales boast .511 and .529 CXwOBAs , respectively, versus righty arms, and they both profile well against many of Porcello’s trademark pitches. They’ve also hit a combined seven home runs lifetime against Porcello.

The Rays could be Thursday’s most popular stack, considering David Hess takes the mound for the Orioles and will be followed by a typically ineffective collection of relievers. In terms of batter vs. pitcher numbers, Joey Wendle really stands out, having gone 4-for-5 with a walk thus far in his career against the right-hander. However, I consider all other affordably priced Rays bats from either side of the plate in play as well, considering that Hess allows a .379 wOBA to lefty hitters and a .368 figure to righty bats, and that Baltimore relievers exhibit the same degree of equal-opportunity ineptitude. The Orioles bullpen comes into Thursday allowing 5.24 ERA and .379 wOBA to right-handed hitters on the road in the last month, and a 5.66 ERA and .316 figure to lefty bats during that span.

On the other side, the Orioles will be up against one of the Rays’ trademark bulpen days, with Yonny Chirinos scheduled to work in the long-relief role after opener Hunter Wood exits the game. Chirinos has been tough against both sides of the plate, especially at home, and no Baltimore bats really have any large samples against him to go on. Tim Beckham has hit safely in both career encounters versus Chirinos, and both Mark Trumbo and Adam Jones are always worthy of consideration for tournaments due to their homer upside. Also worth noting that Renato Nunez has been very good against right-handed pitching in his current big-league stint (.330 wOBA, .369 CXwOBA).

MLB DFS /

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Thurs. Aug. 9th Evening Slates Quick Hits (cont.)

Runs figure to be hard to come by at Minute Maid Park on Thursday with

Justin Verlander

and

James Paxton

taking the hill, but there’s some value to consider for tournaments. On the Mariners side, both

Kyle Seager

(.320 average, three homers, nine RBI against Verlander in 27 career encounters) and

Denard Span

(.386 average and only three strikeouts against Verlander in 45 career plate appearances) are two lefty bats that stand out, and notably, 11 of the 19 homers Verlander has allowed have come off the bats of left-handed hitters. Additionally, even though he’s struggled,

Ryon Healy

owns a .435 CXwOBA versus righties and does boast a .436 wOBA against Verlander’s trademark mid-90s fastball.

More from FanSided

On the Houston side, one of the more interesting statistical nuggets associated with Thursday’s pitchers is James Paxton’s extensive struggles with same-handed bats. The southpaw has allowed a .358 wOBA to lefty hitters, including a .381 figure to the 47 he’s faced on the road. Therefore, Josh Reddick, who also happens to excel in same-handed matchups (.393 wOBA, .397 CXwOBA) shapes up as a very appealing tournament play whose ownership figures to be well in the single digits, even on the short slate.

The Dodgers’ Ross Stripling has shown some cracks lately, and he now walks into Coors Field ripe for the picking. Five of the seven homers Stripling has allowed to right-handed hitters have come on the road, where he’s also yielding a .317 wOBA and 34.2 percent hard contact rate to that handedness. Ian Desmond and Chris Iannetta are two bargain Colorado bats that shape up as appealing, while Carlos Gonzalez and David Dahl are in play from the left side due to their considerable success against right-handed pitching. Moreover, both lefty bats hit Stripling’s trademark low-90s fastball very well.

Meanwhile, Rockies starter Tyler Anderson is another lefty who’s had considerable issues with same-handed hitters, allowing them a .367 wOBA. He’s been much better at home overall, however, despite the hitter-friendly conditions. Meanwhile, Anderson has been tough on righty bats overall in terms of wOBA (.293 allowed), but he’s also yielded 15 of his 21 homers to that handedness. Therefore, a combination of affordable Dodgers righty bats that hit lefties well (Justin Turner and Matt Kemp, who also both boast favorable histories against Anderson)) and the one lefty bat that feasts on southpaws (Max Muncy) are recommended for tournaments, although bear in mind they may be priced up due to the matchup.

And finally, while plenty of attention will be on Coors, don’t underestimate the blow-up potential of the Pirates-Giants tilt to close out the night. Ivan Nova, he of the 5.40 ERA and .374 wOBA on the road, takes the hill for Pittsburgh. He’s been battered by lefty bats away from PNC Park for a .412 wOBA (including eight homers), while right-handed hitters have touched him up for a .342 figure on the road. I’d consider all affordable Giants bats, with Evan Longoria, Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford all standing out due to favorable histories against the right-hander. Additionally, the likes of Gorkys Hernandez, Buster Posey and Andrew McCutchen are among the others in play.

On the other side, the Giants’ Andrew Suarez has yielded a .366 wOBA (including 14 homers) to right-handed hitters, along with a 44.0 percent hard contact rate. While he’s been better against them at home (.322 wOBA), he’s still allowed half of his round trippers to them there, along with an even higher 45.7 percent hard contact rate. I’d roll out the likes of David Freese, Francisco Cervelli, Jody Mercer, Starling Marte and Josh Harrison on the Pittsburgh side, along with the switch-hitting Josh Bell.

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MLB DFS Bargain Bin-Thursday, August 9th Evening Slates

By Juan Carlos Blanco | Aug 9, 2018