MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Thursday August 9
Welcome to the Thursday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Wednesday’s MLB DFS slate was actually more low scoring than I expected from an individual player perspective as no player on FantasyDraft had more than 25.5 FPTS which was Luis Severino with a solid 7 inning, 8 K performance against the White Sox. For Picks and Pivot, we opted to go with a Chacin/Giolito combo which did not even go for 20 total points but because the salary savings were used to pay up for the Indians/Brewers stacks and more specifically the Milwaukee bats that homered, we were able to still have a strong night in MLB DFS.
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Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
DFS MLB – Starting Pitching Overview:
For only a six game MLB DFS slate, I must say, this one is pretty fascinating as we have two elite arms facing off against each other, a game in Coors Field with two solid arms on the mound and 4 teams with 5+ run totals with a variety of viable roster builds you can take on this slate.
It all starts at the top with Justin Verlander ($23.7K) who when you consider he has a league leading 41% K rate over the last month, he may actually be under-priced relative to this match-up tonight. Verlander has double-digit K’s in four of his last six starts however he will face a Mariners projected line-up with only a 20% K rate and 4 hitters (Cruz, Segura, Span and Gordon) who have less than 20% K rates versus RHP this season. Verlander to me is a player I think you need to feel out ownership on as I could certainly see the masses seeing the match-up against a strong/deep Mariners line-up and opting to pay down to afford all the big Coors/Red Sox/Yankees bats on tis six game slate. If that is the case and we can get the highest upside arm on this slate at reduced ownership on a six game slate, it is tough for me to pass on Verlander when you consider his recent form.
His opponent James Paxton ($20.4K) makes for a nice pivot against a banged up Astros team that is without Jose Altuve, George Springer and likely still Carlos Correa who is in the midst of a rehab stint and expected back this weekend BUT keep an eye on if there is any news of him being activated for this game. With the Astros line-up being watered down and after seeing Giants LHP Dereck Rodriguez just strike out 7 batters over 7 shutout innings, I could actually see where Paxton becomes the more popular arm in this match-up. Paxton faced this Astros line-up on July 30th and had 8 K’s over 7 shutout innings for 33 FPTS so my guess is the game log watchers will push even more ownership his way – as I suspect many will take the salary savings on Paxton over Verlander in this game.
J.A. Happ ($17.9K) returns from the D.L. after missing two starts and normally it is wise to avoid pitchers in their first start off an injury but this was a DL stint due to hand, foot and mouth disease and not a physical/arm injury so I think we can fire up the Yankees left-hander in this elite spot against a K happy Rangers team. Happ is a -215 home favorite facing a Texas team he dominated with 7 innings and 9 K’s on his way to 30+ FPTS earlier this year as a member of the Blue Jays. Happ is an interesting SP1 pivot or elite high-end SP2 to pair with JV/Paxton tonight.
One interesting idea (and potentially popular one) would be to simply avoid all this noise at the top and take two pitchers in perhaps the best pitching environment tonight – as Andrew Surarez ($10.2K) and Ivan Nova ($9.1K) face off in San Francisco. This game has only an 8 total and I think there is merit to using one or even both arms here and loading up on all the bats you could ask for.
Suarez is a solid home favorite and the Pirates are projected to score nearly a full run lower than their season average with a 3.7 run total which trails only the Mariners against Mr. Verlander tonight. On the season Suarez has markedly better numbers at home with a mid 3 ERA and xFIP and a K rate of 22.3% which is 4% higher than his road mark in 2018. Now the Pirates are not a team that strikes out often (projected line-up is at less than 18%) but when you consider the price point here on Suarez you are playing him more for the run prevention/ballpark and what it allows you to do with your offense.
Nova on the other side could be interesting against a relatively right-handed heavy Giants team that will likely only have 2-3 LHB in the line-up tonight. On the season, Nova has a 22% K rate and 51% GB rate to RHB and will face a projected Giants line-up with a nice 23% K rate against RHP this season.
If you were to go Nova and Suarez as an example, you would have nearly $10.1K per batter to fill out your line-up which means you get all the offense you want – or you could opt to use one of these as a cheap SP2 alongside a Verlander or Paxton to help you afford some big time bats.
MLB DFS – Top Hitting Spots:
Seriously pick one – Coors Field with the Dodgers and Rockies, Yankees at home with the wind blowing out to RF or the Red Sox against a left-hander. There is a reason every single one of these teams has a 5+ run total and my initial take looking at this slate is that paying up for bats will be the priority on this slate.
Coors Field would seem like a spot to go heavy on with only a six game slate, and you know I love me some Dodgers stacks, but Ross Stripling and Tyler Anderson are both pretty strong pitching options here. Stripling on the season has a 3.04 xFIP and only a 28% HC rate to go along with a 3% BB rate so is this really a pitcher we want to stack against? Honestly, if this game was anywhere but Coors would you be going after the Rockies bats here?
The Dodgers are a totally different story as this line-up is flat-out loaded with guys like Manny Machado, Brian Dozier, Matt Kemp, Enrique Hernandez etc who all mash left-handed pitching so I am not going to talk you off this stack if you choose to go there. It is worth noting however over his last four home starts against the Astros, Mariners, Diamondbacks and Giants that Anderson has pitched 27 innings, giving up only 4 ER total in those games so this spot has the potential to fizzle despite the lofty Vegas totals.
The Red Sox against a left-hander is easy to break down – you put in the big three of Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez and Steve Pearce and move on. I must say though, LHP Ryan Borucki has been quite strong his last four starts which includes a trip to Fenway where the Jays defense completely let him down ( I know because I used him) but in that time he has a near 50% GB rate and only a 23% HC rate which is really carried by an insane 3% HC rate his last start out where he went 8 shutout innings against the Mariners. Again, I can find reasons here despite the obvious potent offense, that this spot could be a let down.
The spot I like the most of all the high-priced offenses is in New York against Ariel Jurado where the wind is blowing out to RF and can take advantage of the short porch and a pitcher who is giving up 45% HC to LHB this season over three starts. The thing with Jurado is he is basically a one pitch guy – throwing his sinker 68% of the time to lefties and 75% against RHB and that kind of dependency just seems like a disaster waiting to happen for this potent Yankees offense.
Didi Gregorious ($8.8K) is arguably my favorite play on this slate as he has a .289 ISO at home versus RHP with 11 of his 20 HR’s this season coming in this exact scenario. The beauty of the Yankee stack is that it not only has the highest Vegas total of any team, but they also do not have a single bat priced above $10K on FantasyDraft so if you want a high-powered offense and still want pitching, I think this is the way to get there.
My favorite GPP stack tonight is the Toronto Blue Jays in a boom/bust spot against Rick Porcello, a pitcher who has dominated them twice this year but also given up 7 ER in only 2 IP in Fenway the last time they played. The lefty stack is where I would focus here as Porcello is giving up a .190 ISO with a 41% HC rate and you have guys like Curtis Granderson, Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales who all have .190+ ISO marks against RHP this season. This three-man stack will cost you only $7K/batter and can be used as a nice salary saving option to pair with high-end arms/bats and their run total of 4.4 is really not all that far behind say the Rockies at 5 who will have 3-4x the ownership.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
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SP: James Paxton ($20.4K)
SP: J.A. Happ ($17.9K)
IF: Chris Davis ($5.5K)
IF: Justin Smoak ($7.2K)
IF: Kendrys Morales ($6.4K)
OF: Curtis Granderson ($7.4K)
OF: Giancarlo Stanton ($9.7K)
OF: Aaron Hicks ($9.1K)
UTIL: Didi Gregorious ($8.8K)
UTIL: Neil Walker ($7.6K)
Slate Overview: For a six game slate, you would think building a roster is pretty cut and dry but this slate has so many angles that I think are viable. I can make the case for any of Verlander, Paxton or Happ and the Suarez/Nova duo gives you access to the big bats you may want in Coors, Yankee Stadium or the big BoSox bats. I write this at 6AM EST so things can change, but I think using the Yankees stack is where I will end up based off match-up and price as you can afford to fit them in with two top end arms and although fading Coors/Boston is scary, I think there are enough data points to make me hesitate going that route. Enjoy the night of MLB DFS AND NFL DFS where we get our first DFS Preseason Action
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Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news across MLB, PGA, WNBA and now NFL!