DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Friday, August 10

Welcome into the Friday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have our typical gargantuan slate on tap so let’s go to work!

We had some rough DFS MLB pitching luck with James Paxton last night and the offense forgot to show up for the most part. The other line fared better, carried by Mookie Betts, who is just a fantasy monster. We just can’t seem to get off the bubble for the most part lately, though I’ve typically been on the right side of things. It would just be nice not to have to sweat things tonight. Let’s dig into this massive slate.

DFS MLB – Red Sox at Orioles

Red Sox Probable Starter – Nathan Eovaldi, RHP 

3.38 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 22.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .234 average, .292 wOBA, 19.7 K rate, 38.1 fly ball rate and 35.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .186 average, .235 wOBA, 25.4 K rate, 40.4 fly ball rate and 30.8 hard hit rate

What’s interesting is it would appear that we need to try to find lefties to use against Eovaldi. However, he does have a 1.63 HR/9 to right-handed hitters and the Orioles lineup is righty heavy. I think Eovaldi can be used in GPP but this is quietly a dangerous spot for him. One of the first righties that stands out is Mark Trumbo. He’s got everything going for him from a pitch data and BvP standpoint. Eovaldi throws a four seam and a cutter almost 70 percent of the time to righties and Trumbo destroys that combo. He has a .352 ISO and a .498 xwOBA against those pitches and that might explain why he as a .590 xwOBA against Eovaldi in eight at-bats. Trey Mancini is also interesting from an ISO and xwOBA perspective with a .315 and .468 mark against the main two pitches. The Orioles do strikeout 24.6 percent of the time versus righty pitching so there is a wide range of outcomes.

Orioles Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Mark Trumbo, Trey Mancini

Secondary Options – Jonathan Villar, Adam Jones, Caleb Joseph(if active)

Orioles Probable Starter – Dylan Bundy, RHP 

4.38 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 25.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .295 average, .371 wOBA, 19.9 K rate, 46.4 fly ball rate and 36.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .201 average, .299 wOBA, 30.7 K rate, 44.5 fly ball rate and 33.8 hard hit rate

This could get ugly for Bundy tonight. There was a game not too long ago that ended up getting rained out but before it was, Bundy was under siege from the Sox. Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez and Andrew Benintendi all took Bundy deep and that outcome could be in play again. Bundy throws his four seam 53 percent of the time to either side. His average and wOBA look way worse to lefties but he’s given up five more homers to righties. Betts and Martinez both have ISO’s over .325 and xwOBA’s over .500 versus the four seam and should be able to make contact at a higher rate than the strikeout rate suggests. Betts also has three home runs in 29 at-bats. Fire away with the top of the lineup and Rafael Devers and Brock Holt are cheap lefties towards the bottom of the lineup.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Andrew Benintendi

Secondary Options – Brock Holt, Mitch Moreland, Rafael Devers

Home Run Pick – Mark Trumbo

DFS MLB – Rangers at Yankees

Rangers Probable Starter – Mike Minor, LHP 

4.53 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 20.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .222 average, .277 wOBA, 23.3 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 35.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .248 average, .331 wOBA, 19.7 K rate, 45.4 fly ball rate and 40.4 hard hit rate

I’m definitely not saying Giancarlo Stanton isn’t a great play tonight because in a vacuum, he’s up there as the best offensive option on the board. What I am saying is Aaron Hicks is $1,000 cheaper  and he’s comparable in a lot of spots that we normally look at. Minor is throwing the four seam about half the time to righty hitters and Hicks is pretty in intriguing.

Hicks – .337 ISO, .384 wOBA, pitch data is .601 xwOBA, .478 ISO

Stanton – .352 ISO, .459 wOBA, pitch data is .529 xwOBA, .333 ISO

Hicks also strikes out around five percent less and walks two percent more. Stanton is the better player but is he $1,000 better? That’s a pretty fair question on this slate. It should be pointed out that Stanton does have four bombs off of Minor in 21 at-bats with a .589 xwOBA to go with it. Gleyber Torres had a day off yesterday and should be fresh and ready to go tonight and he’s a very solid option versus lefties with a .278 ISO and .401 xwOBA. A Yankee stack sure looks good, especially after they hammered the ball last night.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres

Secondary Options – Miguel Andujar

Yankees Probable Starter – Masahiro Tanaka, RHP 

3.76 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 26.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .208 average, .271 wOBA, 24.0 K rate, 28.8 fly ball rate and 32.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .283 average, .318 wOBA, 27.9 K rate, 39.5 fly ball rate and 40.6 hard hit rate

This could be a difficult spot for Tanaka. The Rangers are loaded with power but they do strike out a ton as well. Tanaka is a lot better against lefty hitters even with the slightly lower strikeout rate. The three righties in the lineup would be Robinson Chirinos, Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre. Chirinos has the power you fear but he doesn’t rate well against the pitch mix with a .279 xwOBA and a .119 ISO versus the slider/splitter combo. The lefties like Rougned Odor, Joey Gallo and Shin-soo Choo could take him out of the yard but I don’t think that’s going to happen. I wouldn’t rush to put Tanaka in a cash lineup but he could be an excellent GPP play.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – A stack with Chirinos if you think Tanaka gets lit up. It’s a little more difficult to find a one-off.

Home Run Pick – Aaron Hicks

DFS MLB – Rays at Blue Jays

Rays Probable Starter – Blake Snell, LHP 

2.27 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 28.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .129 average, .186 wOBA, 30.9 K rate, 28.8 fly ball rate and 35.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .207 average, .292 wOBA, 27.2 K rate, 39.3 fly ball rate and 33.6 hard hit rate

Using Snell is wholly dependent on if we get a pitch count before the game starts. If he’s back to normal, I’d be willing to roll him out there in juts about any setting. He was one of the best pitchers  in the A.L. before the injury and hasn’t really given me any reason to think otherwise. If you wanted to go against the grain, Devon Travis and Teoscar Hernandez smash lefty pitching. They both have ISO’s over .250 and wOBA’s over .345. They also rate well versus the two main pitches for Snell, but this isn’t a spot I’m too excited to use hitters from.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Devon Travis, Teoscar Hernandez

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Marco Estrada, RHP 

4.64 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 17.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .236 average, .311 wOBA, 17.4 K rate, 53.0 fly ball rate and 24.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .266 average, .349 wOBA, 17.7 K rate, 56.9 fly ball rate and 33.0 hard hit rate

Estrada trolled me something serious last time out but part of DFS is forgetting all about that. He’s a reverse splits pitcher that is almost totally reliant on his four seam and change-up. The hitter that pops right away is C.J. Cron. The pitch data looks really solid with a team leading .302 ISO and a .411 xwOBA versus those two pitches. The .232 ISO versus righties overall tells us that Cron should be able to get a hold of something to do some damage. Estrada’s HR/9 to righties is 1.71 so all the correlations are looking strong for Cron, who is just $2,800 on FanDuel. I’ve been using Jake Bauers and Mallex Smith quite often the past week but I don’t think I’ll go there tonight.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – C.J. Cron

Secondary Options – Matt Duffy, Wily Adames

Home Run Pick – C.J. Cron

DFS MLB – Diamondbacks at Reds

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Clay Buchholz, RHP 

2.68 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 21.9 hard hit rate

Vs LHH – .180 average, .245 wOBA,21.7 K rate, 34.1 fly ball rate and 32.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .271 average, .339 wOBA, 22.1 K rate,  42.7 fly ball rate and 43.9 hard hit rate

Buchholz has really been pretty reliable lately, logging at least at least 35 fantasy points in his last four starts. He’s throwing a bunch of different pitches up there so the pitch data won’t be the most useful metric in this spot. The FIP and the xFIP is elevated over the ERA but it’s not egregious. I’m trying to find the Achilles heel to really pick him apart but I can’t find that part of his game. The one thing that does stand out is the fly ball rate and hard hit rate to righty hitters. The only hitter I would trust to take advantage of that is Eugenio Suarez, since he has a .253 ISO and a .366 wOBA versus righty pitching. I would be pretty certain he’ll carry low ownership since he’s generally not owned enough when he’s facing a lefty. I wouldn’t use Buchholz with confidence given the park factor but I’m not going after him either.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Eugenio Suarez, Jose Peraza

Reds Probable Starter – Anthony DeSclafani, RHP 

4.98 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 19.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .276 average, .411 wOBA, 15.8 K rate, 45.7 fly ball rate and 43.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .239 average, .279 wOBA, 24.0 K rate, 35.7 fly ball rate and 46.0 hard hit rate

I was hoping they would be just a little bit cheaper, but David Peralta and Eduardo Escobar are both in fantastic spots tonight. DeSclafani just gets wrecked be lefty hitters, giving up a 3.31 HR/9 at home, meaning these two have all the chance in the world to hit a bomb tonight. It’s a steady diet of four seamers and sliders from DeSclafani and Peralta carries a .401 xwOBA and a .317 ISO against those two pitches. He also has a .401 wOBA versus lefties overall to go along with a .249 ISO. Escobar has only been with the Diamondbacks for a short time but he hits righty pitching pretty well. If a hitter is lefty and in a Diamondbacks uniform tonight, I’m interested.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – David Peralta, Eduardo Escobar

Secondary Options – Jon Jay, Daniel Descalso, Ketel Marte

Home Run Pick – David Peralta, Eugenio Suarez

DFS MLB – Twins at Tigers

Twins Probable Starter – Ervin Santana, RHP

6.14 ERA, 1.64 WHIP and 13.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .308 average, .414 wOBA, 11.4 K rate, 52.9 fly ball rate and 38.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .348 average, .402 wOBA, 16.7 K rate, 63.2 fly ball rate and 31.6 hard hit rate

I’m torn here because the Tiger versus a righty pitcher isn’t something I’m really interested in at many points. However, tonight might be that exception because Santana has been awful since his return from a finger injury. It’s not hard to find a reason as his pitches are down about four MPH all the way across the board. If you’re sitting between 82 and 89 MPH, you’re likely to get smoked. The rub here is the Tigers are no higher than 28th in average, ISO, OPS, OBP, slugging, wOBA and wRC+ versus righty pitching this year. The team leader in wOBA with at least 50 at-bats is Jim Aducci at .317. They could still be a sneaky stack since Santana is so bad but I don’t trust them enough as a cash option. Aducci is a decent punt at $2,200 if you need the money and Nicholas Castellanos would be my favorite play overall.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nicholas Castellanos

Secondary Options – Jim Aducci, Niko Goodrum

Tigers Probable Starter – Jordan Zimmermann, RHP 

4.31 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 22.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .238 average, .317 wOBA, 23.3 K rate, 41.6 fly ball rate and 34.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .272 average, .332 wOBA, 21.6 K rate, 47.9 fly ball rate and 35.0 hard hit rate

The splits would appear to favor Zimmermann here versus a lefty heavy Twins lineup but a further dive shows he’s actually worse against lefty hitter when he pitches at home. The HR/9 at home is 2.04 so some of the Twins hitters make a lot of sense if the home/road splits hold up. Jorge Polanco and Eddie Rosario both have a wOBA over .380 and the ISO for Rosario is .235. The only other regular lefty with an ISO over .200 is Logan Morrison and he might be better via the pitch data. LoMo has a .368 xwOBA and a .214 ISO versus the main two pitchers from Zimmermann and those three would be my top hitters on this side of the game. Morrison is down to a .188 batting average but he is just $2,200 if you need a punt. The Twins are very cheap and I would generally treat them as lineup fillers for cash games, not primary targets. Polanco is the easiest player to use because he can be a punt option at shortstop.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jorge Polanco

Secondary Options – Eddie Rosario, Logan Morrison

Home Run Pick – Jim Aducci

DFS MLB – Mets at Marlins

Mets Probable Starter – Zack Wheeler, RHP 

3.89 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 23.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .256 average, .319 wOBA, 24.7 K rate, 36.8 fly ball rate and 34.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .226 average, .261 wOBA, 22.5 K rate, 33.2 fly ball rate and 20.8 hard hit rate

Wheeler has been pretty consistent these past few starts, scoring at least 29 points in every start going back to the middle of June. He’s also coming off arguably his best start of the season, throwing seven shutout frames with nine strikeouts against the Braves. Justin Bour is about the only hitter that catches my eye as Wheeler has been a little worse against lefties so far this year. Wheeler throws the four seam 55 percent of the time versus lefties and that’s a pitch Bour can handle. He has a .416 xwOBA and a .308 ISO against the pitch, but carries some downside with a 24.7 strikeout percentage. Wheeler is on the list of candidates to pitch seeing how he’s been in good form, carries strikeout upside and sees a pitcher’s park.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Justin Bour

Marlins Probable Starter – Jose Urena, RHP 

4.66 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 19.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .275 average, .341 wOBA, 17.6 K rate, 31.3 fly ball rate and 45.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .233 average, .290 wOBA, 21.7 K rate, 27.9 fly ball rate and 36.7 hard hit rate

Urena has likely been better than anyone thought but that doesn’t mean he’s been anything spectacular. The weakness has been lefties so I was going to head towards Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto. Apparently FanDuel had the same idea because those hitters are $3,700 and $3,400, respectively. I do think that’s going to wind up being too rich for my blood but Nimmo had a good series against the Reds and looks like he might be coming out of the funk he’s been in. He’s still carrying a .249 ISO and .386 wOBA versus righties for the season but this game is far from my favorite overall. I’m betting I can find a better way to spend my salary tonight. Wheeler or Bour in a big GPP might be the extent of my exposure to this one.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil

Home Run Pick – Michael Conforto

DFS MLB – Brewers at Braves

Brewers Probable Starter – Freddy Peralta, RHP 

3.54 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 33.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .215 average, .338 wOBA, 31.3 K rate, 46.6 fly ball rate and 37.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .079 average, .176 wOBA, 35.3 K rate, 58.8 fly ball rate and 34.0 hard hit rate

As is the case with most precocious young pitchers, the results have been mixed for Peralta so far. This game could be a down game for him, given lefties have hit him better so far in his career. In fairness, he has faced the Braves once and he was pretty good, logging a quality start with six strikeouts. Either lane for this side of the game is GPP only but if you want to look at hitters, it might be best to spend up. Peralta has leaned on his fastball a whopping 77 percent of the time and that’s going to catch up to him in spots. Major league hitters are to good to consistently get fooled by one pitch. Ozzie Albies checks the pitch data boxes, with a .375 xwOBA and a .324 ISO against that pitch. Freddie Freeman is no slouch versus that pitch either and he leads the team in wOBA overall at a .377 mark for the season.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman

Secondary Options – Johan Camargo, Nick Markakis

Braves Probable Starter –  Kevin Gausman, RHP 

4.47 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 19.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .269 average, .343 wOBA, 18.7 K rate, 34.3 fly ball rate and 27.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .290 average, .347 wOBA, 19.3 K rate, 30.9 fly ball rate and 35.9 hard hit rate

I’m really not terribly interested in Gausman tonight. The last time he had more than seven strikeouts was early June and even versus a Brewers team that is prone to whiffing, it seems like an unnecessary risk. He’s been about the same regardless of the hitter so we want the best options against righty pitching. Three hitters have an ISO over .285 in Travis Shaw, Jesus Aguilar and Eric Thames. Christian Yelich is “down” at .214 so Gausman might see some balls leave the yard tonight. This three hitters are all at or around the top for xwOBA and ISO versus the four seam they’ll see about 60 percent of the time. Thames continues to be under $3,000 and he’ll likely tempt me again with the power upside.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eric Thames, Jesus Aguilar, Travis Shaw, Christian Yelich

Secondary Options –Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas

Home Run Pick – Ozzie Albies

DFS MLB – Indians at White Sox

Indians Probable Starter – Shane Bieber, RHP 

4.58 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 23.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .320 average, .397 wOBA, 25.6 K rate, 42.0 fly ball rate and 48.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .277 average, .288 wOBA, 21.1 K rate, 28.4 fly ball rate and 38.6 hard hit rate

The word is out on the Biebs and it’s play lefties against him as much as you can. It’s really easy to build a cheap three man stack of Yoan Moncada, Yolmer Sanchez and Daniel Palka and all three should bat inside the top four for the Sox. Bieber throws the four seamer about 60 percent versus the lefties and all three of these players have an ISO of at least .219, with Palka leading the charge at .282. They all have a wOBA of .313 overall which might not be that great but I’m willing to give them so leeway in this matchup. Chicago can be a little hit and miss so understand the risk going in. The good news here is Bieber has posted scores over 30 in his past two starts so folks who game log hunt might not realize just how weak he is against lefties.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Yoan Moncada, Yolmer Sanchez, Daniel Palka

Secondary Options – Nicky Delmonico

White Sox Probable Starter – Carlos Rodon, LHP 

2.94 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 20.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .167 average, .272 wOBA, 23.2 K rate, 25.7 fly ball rate and 37.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .197 average, .276 wOBA, 19.4 K rate, 47.6 fly ball rate and 24.5 hard hit rate

I’m definitely a Rodon believer but it seems foolish to pitch him in Cleveland in anything but a deep GPP. Pitching anyone against Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez is a tall task, let alone the rest of the lineup. Now, Rodon has always had reasonably solid success versus the Indians. Through 172 at-bats, Cleveland hitters have totaled a .280 xwOBA and only two home runs, with from Lindor. Brandon Guyer and Yan Gomes would be options with ISO’s over .200 but Rodon has only given up six so far to righties. Either you play Rodon as a leverage play or you stack Gomes, Guyer and Lindor or you forget about this side of the game. Cleveland can go off in any game so this is one that you have to pick your lane.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Yan Gomes, Brandon Guyer, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez

Home Run Pick – Yolmer Sanchez

DFS MLB – Mariners at Astros

Mariners Probable Starter – Mike Leake, RHP 

4.16 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 14.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .273 average, .306 wOBA, 11.2 K rate, 29.7 fly ball rate and 37.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .280 average, .346 wOBA, 17.6 K rate, 29.5 fly ball rate and 34.5 hard hit rate

One of the last outcomes I expected of a Verlander vs Paxton game last night was both teams scoring at least six runs. I don’t know if we’ll get that result again but there’s a couple hitters that we can use to pick on Leake tonight. The first name is actually Tyler White. With the acknowledgment that we’re talking about a small sample size, he’s been hitting righties pretty hard with a .286 ISO and a .387 wOBA. The ISO would lead the team if he had more at-bats and he also rates really well against Leake’s primary two pitches, rocking a .586 xwOBA and .500 ISO. Again, very small sample sizes but here’s the kicker – he’s minimum price on FanDuel. Carlos Correa is back as well but fortunately, he’s priced up close enough to his normal rate that I’ll likely go somewhere else. You can never go too wrong playing Alex Bregman, but nothing really points me in that direction tonight.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Tyler White

Secondary Options – Alex Bregman, Evan Gattis

Astros Probable Starter – Gerrit Cole, RHP 

2.64 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 35.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .166 average, .250 wOBA, 40.5 K rate, 46.7 fly ball rate and 31.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .202 average, .266 wOBA, 29.8 K rate, 40.2 fly ball rate and 35.4 hard hit rate

I never want to target hitters when Cole is on the rubber and that’s not changing this evening. Could you chase the hitters that helped get Verlander out of the game last night? Sure but it doesn’t appear that there’s any real reason to it. Nelson Cruz is hot and basically anyone towards the top of the lineup could b considered but I’m not going that route. Cole is under $11,000 and I’ll definitely have some shares.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger, Denard Span

Home Run Pick – Tyler White

DFS MLB – Cardinals at Royals

Cardinals Probable Starter – Austin Gomber, LHP 

4.10 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 20.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .262 average, .336 wOBA, 19.2 K rate, 30.3 fly ball rate and 30.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .208 average, .315 wOBA, 21.9 K rate, 35.1 fly ball rate and 41.0 hard hit rate

I’m not going to try Gomber but there’s only one hitter that I normally try and go after on the Royals against a lefty and that’s Whit Merrifield. At least one small hold-up with him is he looks mediocre to terrible from pitch data. The xwOBa is barely over .315 and the ISO is a measly 0.034. If you’re a believer in the pitch data we talk about, I don’t think you can use him tonight. $3,500 for those numbers and someone trying to steal bases on Yadier Molina seems like a bad recipe. Yes, Molina is still right on the inside of having an average pop time for catchers so it does limit the stolen base threat a little bit. I’ll be leaving most of the Royals off to the side, if not all of them tonight.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – White Merrifeld, Salvador Perez

Royals Probable Starter – Burch Smith, RHP 

6.41 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and 22.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .313 average, .394 wOBA, 19.7 K rate, 37.2 fly ball rate and 40.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .222 average, .329 wOBA, 25.4 K rate, 45.7 fly ball rate and 48.8 hard hit rate

Stop me if you’ve read this one before over the past couple of months – it’s a Matt Carpenter night. He rivals Stanton as one of the best high end plays of the night and could severe to be a great pivot if the Yankees are getting all the buzz through the day(they probably will). Smith has been getting worked over by lefties and Carpenter still is one of the hotter hitters in baseball. He should get a lot of four seams because Smith throws them 60 percent of the time. Carpenter is scorching that pitch with a .398 ISO and a .519 xwOBA, not to mention his overall numbers versus righties of  a .317 ISO, 1.002 OPS and a .412 wOBA. He’s wildly expensive but it’s hard to blame anyone on that. The only righties I would consider are Jose Martinez and Yadier Molina.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Options – Jose Martinez and Yadier Molina

Home Run Pick – Matt Carpenter

DFS MLB – Dodgers at Rockies

Dodgers Probable Starter – Kenta Maeda, RHP 

3.73 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 28.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .263 average, .328 wOBA, 23.3 K rate, 34.5 fly ball rate and 39.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .204 average, .268 wOBA, 32.7 K rate, 36.5 fly ball rate and 38.8 hard hit rate

Maeda throws six different pitches to lefties, so the pitch data isn’t going to be the most reliable here. It’s Coors Field so the Rockies will have some ownership and if you want to be part of that, you have to look at lefties for the Rockies here. The issue could be Maeda has kept the ball in the yard pretty well this year, only giving up 10 total through 103.2 innings pitched. That would lead me to try and get the cheapest hitters that I could, which would leave me on David Dahl and Carlos Gonzalez. CarGo sits at a .218 ISO while Dahl is up at .270 and strikes out around three percent less. I’m certainly not going to blame you for playing Charlie Blackmon against a righty in Coors, I’m just not sure it’s the optimal way to spend $4,000. Nolan Arenado is fine but has been relatively average against righty pitching so far. I usually save him for a lefty on the mound.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – David Dahl

Secondary Options – Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado

Rockies Probable Starter – Jon Gray, RHP 

4.73 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 27.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .251 average, .330 wOBA, 30.2 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 38.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .255 average, .289 wOBA, 25.2 K rate, 24.6 fly ball rate and 32.2 hard hit rate

If you’re feeling particularly adventurous, you could pitch Gray tonight even though he faces a very difficult challenge in the current Dodgers lineup. Six Dodgers have an ISO over .250 against righty pitching and they could light Gray up like a Christmas tree. Brian Dozier has been hot since coming over, Joc Pederson and Max Muncy hit pinch-hit homers yesterday, and even Yasiel Puig is in in the .250 or higher club. Muncy and Pederson are always in my player pool against a righty since they’re both over .300 for ISO. The flip side is since he’s been back with the team, Gray has logged four quality starts out of four tries. There’s nothing wrong with a Dodgers stack in tournaments but I would have some hesitation in cash. Honestly, I always seem to get Coors Field wrong. I stack it and get a 2-0 game. I let it be and there fantasy points galore. Hopefully we crack the code on this one.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Max Muncy, Joc Pederson

Secondary Options – Yasiel Puig, Brian Dozier, Manny Machado, Justin Turner

Home Run Pick – Max Muncy

DFS MLB – A’s at Angels

A’s Probable Starter – Brett Anderson, LHP 

4.64 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 11.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .297 average, .366 wOBA, 4.7 K rate, 20.0 fly ball rate and 34.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .306 average, .373 wOBA, 13.5 K rate, 29.7 fly ball rate and 33.9 hard hit rate

You can’t use Anderson at all here, even though he pitched well against Detroit last time out. He’s just too risky but the Angels truly do stink against lefty pitching. They’re bottom 10 in just about every offensive team metric we look at. It’s the same story with Mike Trout. He’s still not back but the he does, I’ll be playing him. Maybe it doesn’t work out but I can’t leave Trout out of every single lineup with a .448 wOBA and a .289 ISO versus lefty pitching. Andrelton Simmons might have a weaker ISO at 1.49 but he’s got to be one of the safest plays you can have. He doesn’t strike out on a good day(5.4 percent).Some cheaper names to keep in mind with an ISO over or at .200 are Jefry Marte and Jose Birceno. Those hitters are $2,400 or cheaper.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Andrelton Simmons, Mike Trout(if active)

Secondary Options -Jefry Marte, Jose Birceno, Justin Upton

Angels Probable Starter – Felix Pena, RHP 

4.97 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 21.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .290 average, .371 wOBA, 15.1 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 38.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .227 average, .284 wOBA, 27.7 K rate, 25.0 fly ball rate and 48.1 hard hit rate

Pena is getting beat up by lefties, throwing mostly a four seam and a slider combo. That’s going to put Matt Olson squarely on the board at just $3,000. He’s carrying a .452 xwOBA and a .273 ISO versus those pitches. Nick Martini might be slightly popular if he leads off due to him being lefty, but he rates terribly against the pitch mix. I might head somewhere else. Khris Davis has a .391 ISO versus the pitch mix and is a reverse splits hitter, so he would be the one righty to consider. You could always kick in Jed Lowrie if you wanted to stack the A’s up. Pena hasn’t pitched a ton of innings this year but the splits are a little too drastic to ignore through 38.0 innings.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Olson, Khris Davis

Secondary Options – Jed Lowrie

Home Run Pick – Matt Olson

DFS MLB – Phillies at Padres

Phillies Probable Starter – Zach Eflin, RHP 

3.61 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 22.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .254 average, .339 wOBA, 22.5 K rate, 47.2 fly ball rate and 29.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .216 average, .263 wOBA, 22.5 K rate, 36.8 fly ball rate and 28.4 hard hit rate

Eflin might be my favorite mid-range pitcher and I’m giving him serious cash game consideration. He’s wrecked righty hitters, which is most of the Padres lineup. Lefty hitters like Corey Spangenberg and Travis Jankowski don’t exactly have me quaking in my boots. As long as Jorge Alfaro catches, Jankowski goes down the tubes because Alfaro is so good defensively. There just doesn’t seem to be any upside for the Padres tonight, unless the Philly pen melts down like the Milwaukee one did yesterday.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Padres Probable Starter – Jacob Nix, RHP 

*Major League Debut*

Nix is really going to be hard to project with just six innings at AAA under his belt but we’re going to give it a shot. He’s had a pretty low strikeout rate through the minors and he’s only getting a ground ball about 40-45 percent, depending on where he pitched. The fastball can get up there and his curve isn’t terrible, according to the most recent report on FanGraphs. I would stick with the best Philly has to offer – Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera, Carlos Santana and Nick Williams. Cesar Hernandez is in play as well but I’m hoping for a bomb out of this if I’m playing it. I’d be more inclined to stack at least one or two rather than playing a one-off. Eflin or a Philly stack is about the extent of my interest in this one. We know by know you never know what you’ll get in a debut. We’ve had pitchers get destroyed, pitch a no-hitter into the seventh and everything else in-between.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera

Secondary Options – Carlos Santana, Nick Williams, Carlos Santana

Home Run Pick – Odubel Herrera

DFS MLB – Pirates at Giants

Pirates Probable Starter – Clay Holmes, RHP

*Career 12.1 IP* 3.65 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and 18.9 strikeout rate

I’m not sweating the splits to a major degree here but he’s absolutely been worse to lefties this season . Holmes was promoted yesterday so the Pirates rotation could all get an extra day of rest. If there’s anything a team trying to chase a playoff spot needs, it’s a sixth starter thrown in for reasons right in the middle of things. Anywho, my fan bitterness aside, it sure seems like we’re after Brandon Crawford and Alen Hanson, if he plays. They both have a wOBA over .340 and Hanson inexplicably has his at the .234 mark. Joe Panik and Steven Duggar are also lefties that should bat at the bottom of the order and nobody is going to have those players. Still, I’m not crazy about the Giants versus an unproven pitcher. Things could go either way.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Brandon Crawford, Alen Hanson

Secondary Options – Joe Panik, Steven Duggar

Giants Probable Starter – Derek Holland, LHP 

3.88 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 24.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .175 average, .214 wOBA, 15.1 K rate, 26.9 fly ball rate and 19.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .250 average, .341 wOBA, 26.7 K rate, 43.8 fly ball rate and 44.4 hard hit rate

Holland is in no man’s land tonight because he’s not a pitcher that I would use but I’m not about to try and attack him either. The fly balls to righties looks attractive, especially after Walk With Elias and Josh Bell went back to back last night. Still, Holland is pitching at home which is a great place to be a fly ball pitcher. Diaz can mash against lefties so he’s be my favorite on the board with his team-leading ISO and wOBA of .228(and growing) and .421 versus lefties. Davis Freese is also re-hot and dirt cheap, so he’s a great punt option at just $2,300. This strikes me as the typical last game of the slate where nobody will have a big piece of it.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Walk With Elias, David Freese

Secondary Options – Josh Bell

Home Run Pick – Brandon Crawford

DFS MLB – Sample FanDuel Lineup

P – Zack Wheeler 

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C/1B – C.J. Cron

2B – Yoan Moncada

3B – Rafael Devers 

SS – Brandon Crawford 

OF – David Peralta, David Dahl, Aaron Hicks

Utility – Yolmer Sanchez 

I don’t hav a ton of Coors in this one so we would probably need to tweak it for cash. It’s still a pretty solid mix of some really good outfielders(and it’s easier to fit in Hicks for sure) and then some cheaper upside plays. Having two White Sox isn’t comfortable but that’s how bad Bieber is versus lefty hitters. There’s a lot of one-offs after that but such is life on the big slates.

The Core – C.J. Cron, David Peralta, Wheeler/Eflin

Pitching to Consider 

High End – Gerrit Cole, Masahiro Tanaka(GPP)

Mid-Range – Zach Eflin, Zack Wheeler, Clay Buchholz

Punts – Carlos Rodon, Clay Holmes or Derek Holland

Stacks to Consider – Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Arizona Diamondbacks, White Sox lefties, Coors Field

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.