MLB DFS Bargain Bin- Monday, August 13th Evening Slates

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Monday, August 13th Evening Slates

Welcome to a Monday edition of the MLB DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to provide a general overview of the ledger and touch on where the weakest pitching spots might be, and by extension, where there may be some value bats to consider. Additionally, I’ll look to identify where a value arm or two might be intersecting with an offense that’s running cold or is otherwise inefficient against a certain handedness.

Before we go MLB DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:

The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. After all, these players are usually priced where they are for a reason. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs (and usually avoidable for cash games), and they can often help you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
In this DFS MLB Bargain Bin Quick Hits version, I’ll suggest players that are typically value-priced across all four major DFS sites (Yahoo, FanDuel, DraftKings and FantasyDraft). Naturally, check final pricing before making your lineup decisions, as I am not listing salaries in this edition.
This is not a position-by-position breakdown, but rather, I’m just identifying games where I think there’s value players in potentially favorable fantasy spots.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on Monday evening’s slates!

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Monday, Aug. 13th Evening Slates Bargain Pitcher

Miles Mikolas, STL. vs. WAS

Mikolas offers a nice discount over the several high-priced pitching options on Monday’s evening slate, but he arguably brings as much upside as some of those costlier selections. He’s priced down to $7,800 on FanDuel, $42 on Yahoo, $8,000 on DraftKings and $15,400 on FantasyDraft, making him about the seventh or eighth pitcher down from the top on average on each site.

All Mikolas has done this season is compile 12 wins, a 2.74 ERA and a whopping 16 quality starts, including three consecutive. He’s been especially effective at home, where he’s posted a 2.01 ERA, .235 BAA, .250 wOBA and 1.03 WHIP over 71.2 innings. He’s also been excellent about keeping the ball in the yard all season, but especially at Busch Stadium, where he’s only allowed a pair of home runs.

Meanwhile, the Nationals come in with a less-than-stellar track record against right-handed pitching on the road over the last month. Washington bats have mustered a pedestrian .294 wOBA, 82 wRC+ and .126 ISO against righties away from Nationals Park, along with a .228 average, -7.0 wRAA and 20.2 percent strikeout rate. The Nats have also yet to face Mikolas, which gives him another advantage in the matchup.

And finally, there’s no denying Mikolas’ consistency this season, which has led to him working at least six innings in 18 of his 23 starts. Although there’s many attractive higher-priced options Monday, Mikolas stands a chance to be one of the best fantasy-point-per-dollar choices on the 10-game evening slate.

ALSO CONSIDER:

Brad Keller, KC vs. TOR

Sean Manaea, OAK vs. SEA

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Monday, August 13th Evening Slates Quick Hits

Runs could and should be somewhat hard to come by in the Bronx on Monday night with Jacob DeGrom and Luis Severino on the hill for the Mets and Yankees. After a recent rough stretch, Severino seemingly righted his ship versus the White Sox his last time out, and he draws another attractive matchup against the Mets. Not much to suggest here as a result, although Todd Frazier does own a .500 average with a homer and two RBI against Severino over eight career encounters.

On the other side, DeGrom is in the midst of another outstanding season, so Yankees bats are nowhere near as appealing as they usually are. As far as cheap options with a good history against him, Brett Gardner has had some success (.286 average, one homer, two RBI over 16 plate appearances) and could represent a way to differentiate in very large-field tournaments.

The White Sox-Tigers tilt could feature a busy scoreboard, especially on the White Sox offense’s side. Right-hander

Artie Lewicki

takes the hill for Detroit and checks in allowing a .379 wOBA to lefty bats and a .332 figure to right-handed hitters, along with more than 40.0 percent hard contact to both. That puts all of the White Sox value bats of either handedness in play, including

and Yolmer Sanchez.

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On the Detroit side, White Sox starter Reynaldo Lopez has been much more effective lately but still has trouble frequently on the road, where he’s allowed a 4.95 ERA and .354 wOBA. The Tigers are often pretty punchless, but with Lopez allowing a .372 wOBA to lefty hitters on the road and a .336 figure to righty bats, I’d give the likes of Jim Adduci, Niko Goodrum, Victor Martinez, Nicholas Castellanos (check health status) and Jeimer Candelario some consideration for large-field tourneys.

The Indians’ Mike Clevinger has been an even more effective pitcher on the road than at home, so I’m pretty much off Reds value bats Monday. One potential cheap consideration for very large-field tournaments is Tucker Barnhart (.360 CXwOBA versus righties), who has a pair of hits and RBI against Clevinger in his career.

Conversely, the Indians bats are a must-play up and down the lineup against Homer Bailey, although as usual, there aren’t many cheap options in their lineup. Yonder Alonso, Jason Kipnis, Yan Gomes and Brandon Guyer are four that immediately qualify if in the lineup, however, along with the switch-hitting Melky Cabrera. Bailey is battered equally hard by both sides of the plate, especially at home, so the challenge with the Indians on Monday might be how to be creative with the stacks you do use. The cheaper bats are always a good way to do that, interspersing them among the elite options in their lineup. The Reds bullpen has been bad over the last month at home against both handedness of hitter as well, so everyone truly is in play for Cleveland.

The Marlins’ Merendy Gonzalez has had trouble with both sides of the plate as well (.405 wOBA allowed to lefty hitters, .368 wOBA allowed to righty bats), which puts all affordable Braves bats in play. Of the affordable options in the lineup, worth noting that Johan Camargo and Charlie Culberson especially hit the 93-94mph fastball that Gonzalez frequently throws extremely well, with Culberson also particularly successful against the curve/knuckle-curve that is Gonzalez’s second-most utilized pitch.

The ball could be frequently flying out of Globe Life Park on Monday with the D-Backs in town and Bartolo Colon on the mound. Colon has allowed a .373 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .361 wOBA to right-handed hitters at home, so affordable Arizona hitters of either handedness are in play. That includes Ketel Marte, Steven Souza, Jr., Nick Ahmed, Daniel Descalso and Alex Avila (also owns a .500 average with two homers over 10 career plate appearances versus Colon). Rangers relievers have also been especially vulnerable to right-handed hitters at home over the last month (.444 wOBA, 10.53 ERA, 10 homers allowed).

On the other side, Zack Greinke isn’t usually much of a DFS target, but it’s not a bad idea to consider a Rangers bat or two with the right criteria Monday. Greinke allows a .317 wOBA — including 10 homers — and a 35.2 percent hard contact rate to righties on the road, so Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus, Robinson Chirinos and Jurickson Profar all deserve consideration in large-field tournaments as differentiators.

MLB DFS Bargain Bin – Mon. Aug. 13th Evening Slates Quick Hits (cont.)

Right-handed hitters have feasted on the Nationals’ Tommy Milone thus far for a .424 wOBA, so affordable Cardinals like Paul DeJong, Yadier Molina, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Martinez, Harrison Bader and Jedd Gyorko all deserve consideration.

The Blue Jays will roll out

Sean Reid-Foley

for his first big-league start Monday, and the right-hander has been extremely impressive in both Double-A and Triple-A this season. Reid-Foley owns 146 strikeouts over 126.2 innings in the minors, but it’s always a bit difficult to predict the outcome of a major-league debut. Therefore, as a hedge, I’d definitely consider some cheap Royals bats of either handedness that hit right-handers well, such as

and

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Mariners southpaw Marco Gonzales has put together a very impressive season overall, but same-handed hitters on the road have really been a weakness. Gonzales is allowing a .405 wOBA, 29.4 percent line-drive rate and 43.4 percent hard contact rate to left-handed hitters outside of Safeco Field, and he’s yielded 12 round trippers on the road overall. If the Athletics opt to roll out any lefty hitter against him it could be Matt Olson, who owns a .405 CXwOBA and 42.7 percent hard contact rate against left-handed pitching, so keep an eye out on that lineup later today.

Madison Bumgarner and Clayton Kershaw take the hill for the Giants and Dodgers, respectively, meaning we’re likely to see offense at a premium at Dodger Stadium on Monday. However, lefty-masher Enrique Hernandez is definitely worth considering in LA’s lineup considering he owns a .435 average (including three homers) over 24 career plate appearances versus the Giants’ southpaw. Also worth noting that Bumgarner has allowed a .361 wOBA to the 103 right-handed hitters he’s faced on the road this season, so Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Justin Turner, Yasmani Grandal and Chris Taylor can all be contemplated as well.

On the other side of the matchup, worth noting that Andrew McCutchen owns a .303 average over 35 career plate appearances versus Kershaw while only striking out five times against him, a nice track record of consistent contact. Meanwhile, Kershaw has also had some trouble versus lefties at home this season (.277 average, .331 wOBA, 35.3 percent line-drive rate, 44.1 percent hard contact rate allowed), so the likes of Brandon Crawford, Steven Duggar and Joe Panik could make for the sneakiest of large-field tournament plays if in the lineup.

A couple of other lefties close out the night in San Diego, where Andrew Heaney and Clayton Richard do battle. Heaney has been hit hard by right-handed bats on the road (.361 wOBA, including eight homers, and 45.5 percent hard contact allowed), so I’d give the likes of Manuel Margot, Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe, Franmil Reyes, Austin Hedges and Jose Pirela consideration.

The story is the same on the other side, where Richard has allowed 14 of his 16 homers on the season to right-handed hitters. He has been much better at home, but Justin Upton (.500 average over 27 career plate appearances) and Albert Pujols (.375 average over eight career plate appearances) stand out as very good candidates in the Angels lineup. Andrelton Simmons and Jose Briceno are two other righty bats that hit lefties very well overall.

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