Fantasy Football Bust Alert – Le’Veon Bell

It’s the four letter word that no fantasy football owner wants to hear: B-U-S-T! However, the reality is that every season there are players who fail to meet expectations. Look no further than last year when David Johnson, Odell Beckham Jr., Jay Ajayi, DeMarco Murray, and Jordy Nelson were all being drafted within the first fifteen picks of fantasy drafts.  If you want to emerge as the winner of your league, it’s vitally important to avoid drafting those 1st round busts. There is one player in particular who I’m putting on Fantasy Football Bust Alert – Le’Veon Bell.

All over the country, fantasy football owners who are lucky enough to secure the #1 pick in their drafts are having to decide which player to build their team around for the upcoming season. According to the ADP found on espn.com, Le’Veon Bell is being taken #1 overall more often than any other player. Despite the fantasy community’s confidence in Bell being the top guy available, there are signs that point to him being a colossal fantasy football bust in 2018.

You probably know that Le’Veon Bell led the league in touches last season. But you should think twice if you’re looking at his monster usage from 2017 to predict big things from Bell in 2018. Dating back to 2011, five out of the last six running backs who led the league in touches, failed to play more than eight games the following season. Take a look at these stats!

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David Johnson (Played 1 game in 2017)

2016 – 293 carries, 1,239 yards, 16 touchdowns – 80 catches, 879 yards, 4 touchdowns

2017 – 11 carries, 23 yards, 0 touchdowns – 6 catches, 67 yards, 0 touchdowns

Adrian Peterson (Played 3 games in 2016)

2015 – 327 carries, 1,485 yards, 11 touchdowns – 30 catches, 222 yards, 0 touchdowns

2016 – 37 carries, 72 yards, 0 touchdowns – 3 catches, 8 yards, 0 touchdowns

DeMarco Murray  (Played 8 games in 2015)

2014 – 392 carries, 1,845 yards, 13 touchdowns – 57 catches, 416 yards, 0 touchdowns

2015 – 193 carries, 702 yards, 6 touchdowns – 44 catches, 322 yards, 1 touchdown

LeSean McCoy (Played 16 games in 2014)

2013 – 314 carries, 1,607 yards, 9 touchdowns – 52 catches, 539 yards, 2 touchdowns

2014 – 312 carries, 1,319 yards, 5 touchdowns – 28 catches, 155 yards, 0 touchdowns

Arian Foster (Played 8 games in 2013)

2012 – 351 carries, 1,424 yards, 15 touchdowns – 40 catches, 217 yards, 2 touchdowns

2013 – 121 carries, 542 yards, 1 touchdown – 22 catches 183 yards, 1 touchdown

Maurice Jones-Drew (Played 6 games in 2012)

2011 – 343 carries, 1,606 yards, 8 touchdowns – 43 catches, 374 yards, 3 touchdowns

2012 – 86 carries, 414 yards, 1 touchdown – 14 catches, 86 yards, 1 touchdown

At what point does a coincidence become a pattern? McCoy stands as the one anomaly who managed to play more than 8 games the year after leading the league in touches, and even he suffered quite the statistical regression. Clearly, logging that many touches and getting hit that many times takes its toll on a running back. Could be Le’Veon Bell buck the trend and lead the league in touches again? Sure! But I’m content to let somebody else take that chance.

Another concern for fantasy owners is that Le’Veon Bell could potentially be out of shape after holding out from training camp. After a similar holdout last off-season, he got off to a sluggish start in 2017. In weeks 1-3, Bell managed to run for only 180 yards on 52 carries. Do you want to have to watch Todd Gurley or Ezekiel Elliot rack up points for their owners while you’re waiting for your #1 overall pick to get into shape? I don’t think so! For these reasons, I’ll be passing on Le’Veon Bell in 2018. He is on Fantasy Football Bust Alert!

Thanks for reading, Fantasy Football Bust Alert – Le’Veon Bell! Follow me on twitter @BenMcD_Sports for more fantasy insight!

Unless otherwise notes, all stats were taken from profootballreference.com