MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Tuesday August 14
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
It has taken me a full night’s sleep to comprehend that we just witnessed a chalk Sean Reid-Foley night in MLB DFS. On a night where we had a few big time offenses that were priorities (Indians, Arizona) and a handful of high-priced aces (deGrom, Kershaw etc), Reid-Foley ended up being the unlock code to make those builds work and seeing him nearly 50% owned in tournaments on FantasyDraft was not something I expected when I first opened the slate but the logic seemed to find its way around the industry. Ultimately, his debut was nothing special and amounted in single digit fantasy points but if you paired him with Kershaw and an Indians stack as an example, you got the exact result you were hoping for as Cleveland went off for 10 runs and Kershaw put up a vintage 8 K gem against the San Francisco Giants.
We have some BIG news at Fantasy CPR as we are now looking for PAID writers to join our team to write about fantasy sports. Seasonal or DFS, any sport you want – get your voice heard and get paid for talking fantasy sports. Apply today HERE!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Starting Pitching Overview:
At first glance, I must say, this slate feels almost exactly like Monday’s MLB DFS action – the same three teams have the only 5+ totals (Arizona, Cleveland and Atlanta) and we have a handful of top-tier arms to choose from and an ugly-looking bottom tier with multiple gas can arms we want to stack against. The difference in tonight’s slate compared to Monday’s is that I believe we have more legit pivot options so where as last night seemed like a night to eat the chalk, I think tonight is a night we can be a bit different.
You can make the case easily for any of the top four arms on the slate in Justin Verlander, Corey Kluber, James Paxton and Patrick Corbin but the mid-tier looks like the ideal landing spot tonight to allow you to chase upside while saving salary for some bigger bats.
J.A. Happ ($18.9K) gets a home start against the Tampa Bay Rays and we are starting to see his performance and price creep back up to where it was earlier in this 2018 MLB season. Happ over his last three starts has a 30% K rate and a 14% swinging strike rate with book-end 9 strikeout outings which resulted in 25 fantasy points against the Rangers and Orioles. The projected line-up for the Rays has a whopping 26% K rate against LHP this season with 5 batters sporting a 28% K rate or higher (Bauers, Cron, Kiermaer, Adames and Lowe) so not only would Happ seem to be a safe cash game pitcher as a massive favorite, but the line-up has significant GPP upside at a discount off the big 4 arms on this slate.
Alex Wood ($16.1K) sets up as a nice solid/boring cash game SP2 in a home start against the Giants where he should go his usual 5-6 innings and as a -185 home favorite against a line-up we just saw Mr. Kershaw roll through, expect this to be a popular SP2 play on this slate. Wood has actually gone pretty deep into games in recent turns with 96+ pitches in each of his last four outings and 100+ in three of those four but considering he has only a 20% K rate against RHB (for which the Giants line-up will be loaded), there is not a ton of upside here. Wood is the cash game SP2 and would be fine as a “last man in” steady SP2 in GPP’s if you like the upside in the rest of your build.
German Marquez ($15.8K) is the pivot off Wood in GPP’s and it is not often we want to roster +200 dogs on the road but the Rockies right-hander is putting up numbers recently we would be crazy to ignore. Over his last seven starts, Marquez has put up a 30.4% K rate and a 13.8% swinging strike rate, with 20+ FP in 6 of those 7 outings while averaging 24 FPTS per game. Normally I would not pick on the Astros but with George Springer and Jose Altuve sidelined, this remains a weakened Houston line-up and using Marquez not only gives you a nice pivot off the Wood SP2 chalk but also serves as a nice leverage play off those who use Justin Verlander as their SP1.
MLB DFS – Top Hitting Spots:
Another night where Arizona, Cleveland and the Braves have the only three run projections over 5 but unlike last night, I think tonight is a night you pivot off the chalk with some high-octane offenses in really strong spots.
Let’s start with my favorite – the Los Angeles Dodgers – yes I know, that is seemingly every day in Picks and Pivots but it is hard for me to overlook this spot for them tonight against Andrew Suarez in a late night hammer spot in LA. Suarez on the season is giving up a .206 ISO with a 46% hard contact rate to right-handed batters and will face a line-up loaded with right-handed power even with Brian Dozier day-to-day while getting EKG tests after leaving Monday Night’s game.
Go up and down the Dodgers line-up and pick your favorites here against Suarez who is essentially a fastball/slider pitcher against RHB and you will see a group of guys who simply destroy what Suarez offers. Against his 92 MPH fastball, the Dodgers have three batters with .300+ ISO’s against that pitch type in Manny Machado, Justin Turner and Enrique Hernandez and against the slider, Turner, Machado and Yasiel Puig all have .200+ ISO marks.
You know the best part of this stack? There is no player priced over $9K so you can easily stack the Dodgers with solid arms and still put high-priced one-off plays around them. The Dodgers have a 4.7 run total, 7th on the board tonight and with it being the late game it could lead to them being a bit over-looked and considering how bad Suarez is against RHB, this is the perfect spot to load up on as many of their bats as possible.
The Red Sox and Phillies game in Philadelphia is not one I expect many will look to game stack, especially with solid arms like Nick Pivetta and Rick Porcello on the mound but there is a lot to like here in my opinion. Let’s start with the Red Sox – with the Arizona/Indians/Braves high totals and the Yankees at home against a Rays bullpen, is this a spot where the Red Sox go a bit over-looked?Now Nick Pivetta is not a bad pitcher and in fact he has significant K upside against RHB but this Boston team has a 1-6 in their line-up where every batter has a .200 ISO against RHP.
Against right-handed batters, Pivetta throw essentially three pitches – a fastball, slider and curveball and J.D. Martinez has the following ISO marks against those RH pitch types in 2018 – .310, .202 and .294 and at a price tag of $10.3K on FantasyDraft my guess is he comes in at a fraction of the ownership of the Indians studs priced in the same range. You can make essentially the same case for Mookie Betts ($11.1K) with Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor at the same price point so I love the idea of stacking these two Red Sox as lower owned pivot tonight and you can pair them with one of the lefties like Mitch Moreland or Rafael Devers.
Against LHB this season, Pivetta throws basically a fastball and curveball and the numbers for both Moreland and Devers are strong here especially against the curve where Devers and Moreland are sporting .206 and .308 ISO marks against that pitch type since 2016. A Red Sox stack on any night is a great play but on this slate it feels like one that will be lower owned than it should be considering the ballpark in Philadelphia with the wind looking like it is blowing out to RF around 9-10 MPH.
The other side of this game against Rick Porcello is just as interesting due to Porcello’s struggles with left-handed batters in 2018. Porcello is giving up a .190 ISO with a 42% HC rate to left-handed batters and tonight will be in one of the best parks for left-handed power in baseball. The nice part about the Phillies is they come cheap with guys like Asdrubal Cabrera ($8.4K), Nick Williams ($7.7K), Justin Bour ($7.8K) and Odubell Herrera ($7.3K) all at incredibly reasonable price points. Porcello relies primarily on his slider against LHB and this is a pitch type in 2018 that guys like Williams (.303 ISO), Herrera (.230) and Cabrera (.205) all handle quite well.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
More from FanSided
- USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
- NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
- Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
- MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
- Caesars, BetMGM and PointsBet Promo Codes Give $1,850 Bonus for ANY World Cup or MLB Game!
SP: J.A. Happ ($18.9K)
SP: German Marquez ($15.8K)
IF: Manny Machado ($9K)
IF: Mitch Moreland ($8.1K)
IF: Enrique Hernandez ($7.3K)
OF: Nick Williams ($7.7K)
OF: Matt Kemp ($7.2K)
OF: J.D. Martinez ($10.3K)
UTIL: Asdrubal Cabrera ($8.4K)
UTIL: Odubel Herrera ($7.3K)
Slate Overview: At first glance, narrowing down my player pool to the upper-mid range of arms like Happ, Wood and Marquez allows me to essentially pick and choose the bats I want from stacks of the Dodgers, Red Sox and Phillies. With so many good spots, I am not sure if I want to go all-in on any one stack or simply use 2-3 man stacks like I did in this sample to cherry pick my exposure to the bats I want the most in each spot. Should be a fun night of MLB DFS!
Next. DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdowns. dark
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis across all your favorite sports.