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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Wednesday August 15

By Brian Tulloch

LOS ANGELES, CA - JULY 30: Yasiel Puig #66 of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts on a close pitch called for a ball in the second inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Dodger Stadium on July 30, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - JULY 30: Yasiel Puig #66 of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts on a close pitch called for a ball in the second inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Dodger Stadium on July 30, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images) /
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MLB DFS
ATLANTA, GA – AUGUST 13: Ronald Acuna Jr. #13 of the Atlanta Braves reacts on the way to homeplate as he scores on a RBI single by Freddie Freeman #5 in the fifth inning against the Miami Marlins during game two of a doubleheader at SunTrust Park on August 13, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) MLB DFS /

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

The run that Ronald Acuna Jr. is on right now is simply insane as the Braves rookie has leadoff home runs in 3 straight games, homers in 5 in a row and 7 of 8 and last night was the most important bat you could have built around in MLB DFS. Personally I had some swings and misses on the night as German Marquez was the second highest scoring arm on the slate, ahead of guys like Verlander, Kluber, Paxton and Corbin but my bats, notably the Dodgers stack, was a gigantic letdown. We turn the page to today and should we just go ahead and lock button Acuna in now before we look at anything else?

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Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.

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As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

MLB DFS
HOUSTON, TX – AUGUST 10: Gerrit Cole #45 of the Houston Astros pitches in the first inning against the Seattle Mariners at Minute Maid Park on August 10, 2018 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Starting Pitching Overview:

Now I am not normally one who advocates paying up at pitcher on FantasyDraft, I tend to live in the mid-low tier and load up on bats but I am having a tough time tonight passing on Gerrit Cole ($23.7K) tonight at home against the Rockies. This is less about the match-up, although we know the Rockies run production drops and their strikeouts increase on the road, this is really more about the context of the slate when it comes to pitching.

We will come back to Cole in a minute but just step back and look at this slate – are you going to fade Cole and drop down to Zack Wheeler at $21K? Listen, I am a Mets fan, I love Wheeler and he has been great but that is a hefty price to pay for a guy with a 23.8% K rate and 4+ xFIP on the year when for $2K more I can get Cole who has a K rate 10% higher on the year and is pitching at home instead of in Camden Yards.

Ok want to move off Wheeler? Your next options are Nathan Eovaldi or Kevin Gausman and DEREK FREAKIN HOLLAND is the fifth most expensive arm on this slate?!?!?! Enough of this silliness – I am paying for the safety/upside of Cole and not even going to try to get cute with my SP1 on tonight’s slate.

Since the beginning of July (7 starts), Cole has a 32.4% K rate, striking out 7 or more in all but one start while sporting a 14.4% swinging strike rate which includes a start against this very same Rockies team albeit in Coors Field where he went 6.1 IP, striking out 9 on his way to 25 fantasy points. With the significant ballpark boost moving to Houston, this should only further solidify the floor for Cole here and frankly the upside here dwarfs what anyone else is capable of providing so I think he is a priority part of your MLB DFS build today.

From an SP2 perspective the name that immediately jumped off the page to me was Dylan Bundy ($13.1K) who gets a home start against the Mets. Now Bundy is certainly not safe, his game logs are littered with negative/single digit point outings sandwiched around 20+ fantasy points nights so the range of outcomes is significant here but if you really look at his bad outings they are coming against teams like the Red Sox and Yankees while his big scores are coming against weaker/high K offenses like the Rangers and Rays.

Bundy faced this Mets team earlier in the season in New York, pitching 7 shutout innings with 5 K’s on his way to 26 FPTS. If Andrew Cashner can go out and throw 7 innings of 2 run ball against this Mets team last night, than that would seem like a floor for a pitcher the caliber of Bundy with some significant K upside.

MLB DFS
LOS ANGELES, CA – JULY 30: Yasiel Puig #66 of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts on a close pitch called for a ball in the second inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Dodger Stadium on July 30, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Top Hitting Spots:

If you opt to pay up for Cole and use Bundy as your SP2, you will be left with $7.9K per batter to fill out the rest of your line-up, a solid amount of salary but likely takes you out of any high-dollar stacks like the Indians or Red Sox and if you add in arguably the best/most necessary one-off in Ronald Acuna Jr. ($10.1K) – you now have just over $7.5K to fill out the remaining 7 spots in your line-up.

So, is there a stack in this price range we like?

Let’s see – there is a team loaded with right-handed batters facing a fly-ball left-hander who is giving up a .221 ISO and 45.6% hard contact rate to RHB this season and this team also happens to have the third highest Vegas total on the board.

Now I rarely use this team – so this is going to be tough for me but I really think – just this time – we can see how a Los Angeles Dodgers stack will work. I know – shocking, I like a Dodgers stack – I am sure none of you saw that coming.

I know they burned us last night but the numbers scream to load up on the bats here against LHP Derek Holland and the price points – oh the price points – it is basically begging you to pair Gerrit Cole with a Dodgers stack.

Now – one thing to note – the benches cleared last night with some shoving etc. and Puig had to be restrained so just make sure there are no MLB actions which force any Dodgers to miss this game but if they play – hello angry revenge narrative.

There is not a single Dodgers right-handed batter priced over $8.3K – not a one – go ahead lock in Brian Dozier, Manny Machado, Justin Turner, Enrique Hernandez, Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig – this is a six man stack you can build with ease with their price points and outside of Puig, every single one of these bats has a .200+ ISO against LHP over the last two seasons.

OK enough about the Dodgers – I have a problem and I promise if this doesn’t work out, I will not recommend a Dodgers stack the rest of the year.*

Disclaimer – I will not actually promise that. This promise is not legally binding. 

MLB DFS
LOS ANGELES, CA – AUGUST 14: Enrique Hernandez #14 of the Los Angeles Dodgers celebrates as Justin Turner #10 slides home to score a run for a 1-1 tie with the San Francisco Giants during the eighth inning at Dodger Stadium on August 14, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:

The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!  

More from FanSided

SP: Gerrit Cole ($23.7K)

SP: Dylan Bundy ($13.1K)

IF: Brian Dozier ($8.3K)

IF: Manny Machado ($8.1K)

IF: Justin Turner ($8K)

OF: Matt Kemp ($7.7K)

OF: Yasiel Puig ($8.2K)

OF: Enrique Hernandez ($7.3K)

UTIL: Ronald Acuna Jr. ($10.1K)

UTIL: Brandon Lowe ($5.5K)

Slate Overview: There is nothing overly complicated about this build – I am prioritizing Cole as a first man in and I love the match-up and upside for Bundy as an SP2 – then I am simply eating the Acuna red-hot chalk as a one-off and that leaves me with a salary range that sets up perfectly for a Dodgers stack. All in, that leaves me with only $5.5K for the last spot and this is where Brandon Lowe fit in – one of the Rays top prospects who will continue to man 2B for Tampa Bay. I went a similar route with Danny Jansen yesterday and this is a route I would recommend down the stretch of MLB DFS – using cheap top prospects who get called up for high upside salary relief. Lowe is a top 75 prospect in baseball who was raking at AAA prior to his call-up with significant power upside and although he has struggled in his first 6 games in the bigs, I am willing to take a flyer on the pedigree against a pitcher like Luis Cessa in Yankee Stadium.

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