West Virginia season preview: Best and worst-case scenario

The West Virginia Mountaineers may be one of the most volatile teams in the 2018 college football season, but how will things actually play out?

Dana Holgorsen’s West Virginia Mountaineers came into last college football season hoping to build off of a 10-3 campaign the year before. With the arrival of quarterback Will Grier at the helm of the offense, they were certainly one of the more exciting teams to watch on a weekly basis for the 2017 season. Unfortunately for them, much of that excitement didn’t translate to wins when they needed them most.

The Mountaineers lost a close one to Virginia Tech in their season-opener, which set a tone for them for much of the season. They would go on to lose close against TCU (seven points) and then Oklahoma State (11 points) in Big 12 play. Defeats at the hands of Texas and Oklahoma weren’t as close, however. After finishing 5-4 in conference play and with a 7-5 regular season mark, things came tumbling down further in the Heart of Dallas Bowl with a 30-14 loss to Utah.

Grier and Holgorsen will be back for the 2018 season, but where the bulk of the losses for this team will be felt is on the defensive side of the ball. West Virginia will be going forward without Al-Rasheed Benton, who was their leading tackler last season. What’s more, playmaking hybrid-safety Kyzir White is also gone. Throw in the fact that Adam Shuler and Lamonte McDougle transferred, and the Mountaineers have some pretty big shoes to fill on defense.

Lucky for them, however, they have plenty of talent that could step into those roles. David Long Jr. is one of the most underrated defensive players in college football, and much of this unit’s success will hinge on how he steps up as a leader. Also important will be the play of Dylan Tonkery, who will be the replacement for the departed Benton. Meanwhile, Derrek Pitts anchors a secondary at cornerback.

This is all to say that the West Virginia defense will be a question mark to enter the season — but it’s a question mark that has a ton of upside behind it. If all goes well, this unit could be one of the best in the Big 12. Of course, when talking about that conference, that only means so much.

That also works in favor of the Mountaineers though, as their strength is indubitably the Grier-led offense. The quarterback himself is an early frontrunner to win the Heisman Trophy in 2018 and rightfully so. What’s more, he proved his value and how crucial he is to this team’s success when he injured his hand late in 2017, which ultimately derailed the end of their campaign.

Grier isn’t alone, however, as he’s complemented by one of the most dangerous receiving corps in the country. David Sills V is near impossible to slow down, but he’s flanked by the likes of Marcus Simms and Gary Jennings as well. In total, that ultimately makes this group near impossible to cover as they can beat you all over the field with this trio of guys.

Thus, this West Virginia team is going to thrive on offense and that’s where they’ll make their money. They could, in fact, score with any team in the country. However, what could separate a good and great season for the Mountaineers is their defense. If the defense does realize its potential, the pieces are in pace for the best season of Holgorsen’s tenure.

Best-case scenario

• Sept. 1 vs. Tennessee – W
• Sept. 8 vs. Youngstown State – W
• Sept. 15 at NC State – W
• Sept. 22 vs. Kansas State – W
• Sept. 29 at Texas Tech – W
• Oct. 6 vs. Kansas – W
• Oct. 13 at Iowa State – W
• Oct. 25 vs. Baylor – W
• Nov. 3 at Texas – W
• Nov. 10 vs. TCU – W
• Nov. 17 at Oklahoma State – W
• Nov. 23 vs. Oklahoma – L

For this West Virginia team, saying that they could go undefeated and that be the best-case scenario for them seems just a bit too pie-in-the-sky. Not only does the Big 12 have a litany of top-tier teams and teams ready to make a move up the rankings, but West Virginia has a bear of a schedule with visits to NC State, Iowa State, Texas and Oklahoma State.

While that may be the case, there is a chance that Holgorsen’s group could ultimately end the year as a one-loss club. They are as talented as any team in the conference and should be able to be in the mix to win every game that they play in. Thus, in a best-case scenario, that’s how things play out, but with them emerging victorious in all but one affair (the season finale being that contest here).

Worst-case scenario

• Sept. 1 vs. Tennessee – L
• Sept. 8 vs. Youngstown State – W
• Sept. 15 at NC State – L
• Sept. 22 vs. Kansas State – W
• Sept. 29 at Texas Tech – W
• Oct. 6 vs. Kansas – W
• Oct. 13 at Iowa State – W
• Oct. 25 vs. Baylor – W
• Nov. 3 at Texas – L
• Nov. 10 vs. TCU – L
• Nov. 17 at Oklahoma State – W
• Nov. 23 vs. Oklahoma – L

Of course, the worst-case scenario for West Virginia would be if things don’t play out in favor of the Mountaineers, even if they’re in the game nearing the end of the fourth quarter. However, the season playing out this way has a pretty easy explanation as to why it would ultimately happen: the defense.

Grier and the offense should be able to put up points no matter the matchup. However, the defense — although talented — is an unknown quantity until it’s on the field with how much turnover they’ve experienced on the roster. Thus, if the defense doesn’t step up and it’s left up to the offense winning shootouts, that’s normally a recipe for a disappointingly mediocre record while playing in the Big 12.