DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Friday, August 17

Welcome into the Friday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! Friday means we have a monster slate on tap so let’s dig right in.

Thanks to Jon Lester and Ivan Nova having a pitcher’s duel, thing didn’t work out for us in DFS MLB last night. I knew I wasn’t a big fan of that slate but sometimes all the stats you put on the page will blow up in a heartbeat. Let’s get into the good stuff tonight!

DFS MLB – Cubs at Pirates

Cubs Probable Starter – Cole Hamels, LHP 

4.22 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 23.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .260 average, .320 wOBA, 19.1 K rate, 22.0 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .244 average, .332 wOBA, 24.2 K rate, 33.8 fly ball rate and 46.9 hard hit rate

At least one person enjoyed his trade to the Cubs because Hamels has found himself in a Chicago uniform. He’s started three games and racked up 18 innings, 20 strikeouts and two earned runs. One of those starts came in Pittsburgh against these Pirates so I’m exercising caution more than I normally do with Pirate hitters against lefties. The numbers for the Bucco righties against the mix of four seam, cut and sinking fastballs that Hamels throws most often point us towards the normal suspects. The catching tandem of Francisco Cervelli and Elias Diaz both have ISO’s over .300 and xwOBA’s over .465 and then you could also use David Freese with a .468 xwOBA. Still, Hamels isn’t the pitcher I want to attack and Hamels is a pretty nice GPP option.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options -Elias Diaz/Francisco Cervelli, David Freese, Starling Marte

Pirates Probable Starter – Trevor Williams, RHP 

3.66 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 16.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .238 average, .298 wOBA, 11.2 K rate, 37.8 fly ball rate and 28.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .239 average, .302 wOBA, 20.5 K rate, 39.7 fly ball rate and 32.3 hard hit rate

I’m not going to use him against this Cubs offense but Williams has been on a tear in his last five starts. He’s allowed two runs in his last 29 innings pitched, including starts against the Indians, Nationals and Cardinals. With the exception of newly acquired Chris Archer, the other four Pirates starters are very similar in their approach of heavy four seam and sinker, while being worse against lefties. Williams has not shared the lefty weakness trait so far so this is another spot I might be a little careful with. There’s not much to pick on with any split for Williams. He’s virtually the same home/road, righty/lefty and even the fly balls and hard hits are in line. If you have to play Cubs, it’s gotta be lefties like Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward and Ian Happ. They all have ISO’s over .190 with the exception of Heyward, but you don’t play him for power. Javier Baez would be the lone righty I would look at since he wrecks the pitch mix with a .376 ISO.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Any Lefty hitter with Rizzo being number 1, Javier Baez

Home Run Pick – Francisco Cervelli 

DFS MLB – Marlins at Nationals

Marlins Probable Starter – Dan Straily, RHP 

4.42 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 20.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .249 average, .355 wOBA, 20.7 K rate, 34.0 fly ball rate and 44.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .224 average, .311 wOBA, 19.4 K rate, 44.8 fly ball rate and 44.5 hard hit rate

This could be a long night for Straily since he gives up so much power. The lefties are going to be popular and they should be but don’t forget about the righties. Trea Turner has a .207 ISO versus the pitch mix of Straily, and that’s a pretty big number for a hitter that isn’t know for his power. It’s also pretty appealing when he’s under $4,000, which is the case tonight. Bryce Harper and Juan Soto have very similar numbers overall this season with Harper having the higher ISO. Soto also leads in ISO and xwOBA among everyday players and is cheaper than Harper. It’s worth noting that Straily has oddly been better on the road ERA-wise but the xFIP and FIP are the same from each split.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner

Secondary Options – Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rendon, Adam Eaton

Nationals Probable Starter- Max Scherzer, RHP 

2.19 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 34.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .191 average, .256 wOBA, 32.0 K rate, 48.0 fly ball rate and 27.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .166 average, .234 wOBA, 37.4 K rate, 43.9 fly ball rate and 34.7 hard hit rate

I can’t bring myself to use any Marlins hitters against Scherzer. I used to take a shot with Justin Bour, hoping he could put one into the seats. Since he’s gone, there doesn’t seem to be much to target. Lefty Derek Dietrich does have two home runs against Scherzer in 33 at-bats but that’s not the kind of odds that I want to chase versus one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Derek Dietrich as a crazy GPP option

Home Run Pick – Trea Turner

DFS MLB – Blue Jays at Yankees

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Marcus Stroman, RHP 

5.03 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 17.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .265 average, .312 wOBA, 15.9 K rate, 16.9 fly ball rate and 35.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .276 average, .323 wOBA, 19.8 K rate, 23.1 fly ball rate and 31.0 hard hit rate

I really want to figure out a way to target Stroman because he’s not a good pitcher.  It’s always dangerous to do so because he can generate so many ground balls in any given start and the current Yankee hitters haven’t had the most success against him. In 109 at-bats, Stroman has given up two homers and they’ve both come from the bat of Brett Gardner. He is slightly worse against righty hitters and that leads me to Gleyber Torres. Stroman relies on his sinker like many ground ball pitchers do and that’s right in the wheelhouse for Torres and his .667 ISO and .627 xwOBA against the pitch. I don’t generally play him against righty pitchers but it’s hard to ignore Giancarlo Stanton and his hot streak lately. He’s scored under nine FanDuel points twice in his last 13 games. He’s also up to a .214 ISO versus righties so it’s not like he can’t crush a ball. Aaron Hicks also rates well against the sinker in ISO and xwOBA, but I don’t think I’ll be too heavy on Yankees.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Gleyber Torres

Secondary Options – Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks

Yankees Probable Starter – Lance Lynn, RHP 

4.46 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and 22.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .289 average, .371 wOBA, 15.3 K rate, 22.9 fly ball rate and 39.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .230 average, .298 wOBA, 28.3 K rate, 30.6 fly ball rate and 32.8 hard hit rate

We definitely should want some of the Blue Jays lefty hitters tonight in Yankee Stadium versus a pitcher that throws 75 percent four seams and sinkers. Kendrys Morales is far too cheap for the matchup at $2,500 with a .340 wOBA and the pitch data that he has in his favor. Morales is smashing the mix for Lynn with .506 xwOBA and a .303 ISO. If you wanted to pay up for the better hitter, Justin Smoak is $1,000 more but have has the higher ISO and wOBA in season long and the higher ISO against the pitch mix. A contrarian play would be righty Randall Grichuk, who has the best mark in ISO against four seams/sinkers on the team. Lynn in Yankee Stadium is a little scary versus this team.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales

Secondary Options – Randall Grichuk, Curtis Granderson

Home Run Pick – Kendrys Morales

DFS MLB – Orioles at Indians

Orioles Probable Starter – David Hess, RHP 

6.25 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 14.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .277 average, .372 wOBA, 15.2 K rate, 48.5 fly ball rate and 31.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .271 average, .362 wOBA, 12.8 K rate, 50.5 fly ball rate and 31.7 hard hit rate

He’s as expensive as always but Jose Ramirez seems like a dangerous fade tonight. Hess is flat out a terrible pitcher and gives up a 2.43 HR/9 this year while throwing his fastball over 60 percent of the time. Ramirez is a world destroyer against all right handers with a 1.125 OPS, .379 ISO and .458 wOBA. Then the pitch data is off the charts as well with a .507 xwOBA and a .553 ISO so to say this is a smash spot might be an understatement and he’s definitely a priority spend. Yonder Alonso is a little too expensive for my blood but just about any other Indians hitter is on the table tonight. I would much rather pay $200 extra for Francisco Lindor than Michael Brantley since he has a much higher ISO through the season. Hess is such a bad pitcher it really doesn’t need too much of a breakdown here. The Indians might be the stack of the night.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley

Secondary Options – Yonder Alonso, Jason Kipnis, Greg Allen

Indians Probable Starter – Carlos Carrasco, RHP 

3.50 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 28.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .250 average, .303 wOBA, 29.0 K rate, 32.0 fly ball rate and 37.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .237 average, .285 wOBA, 27.2 K rate, 36.5 fly ball rate and 40.5 hard hit rate

I would normally just side with Carrasco here against an Orioles team that strikes out at just about a 24 percent clip. However, Carrasco has always been oddly worse at home and that trend has certainly continued this season. His ERA is almost double at home, as is his HR/9 but lefties have the most success against him. That would lead us to Jonathan Villar with his .384 wOBA and an interesting name is Cedric Mullins. He’s a switch hitter that just joined the Orioles but he’s hit the ground running with a .400 batting average and a 1.263 OPS and a .530 wOBA through just 17 at-bats against righty pitching. I would still generally side with Carrasco, but I’m not sure he’ll make my player pool tonight.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Cedric Mullins, Jonathan Villar

Home Run Pick – Jose Ramirez

DFS MLB – Giants at Reds

Giants Probable Starter – Casey Kelly, RHP 

5.93 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and 13.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .318 average, .365 wOBA, 12.3 K rate, 25.0 fly ball rate and 34.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .315 average, .369 wOBA, 14.5 K rate, 36.2 fly ball rate and 31.3 hard hit rate

These numbers are the career marks for Kelly, who is making the start instead of Dereck Rodriguez. He landed on the disabled list last night so Kelly got tabbed on short notice. I’m not terribly worried about the pitch data on just about 68 total innings and only 6.1 this season. Instead, it’s just a matter of who hits righties well for the Reds offense. This is a perfect spot to buy low on Eugenio Suarez. He’s generally a lefty specialist for DFS purposes because of his price point. He’s only $3,400 and carries a .237 ISO and .358 wOBA so he’s worth the price of admission. The lefty combo of Scooter Gennett and Joey Votto are also far lower than we’re accustomed to. This trio has been slumping a little bit and wouldn’t have been a good play if Rodriguez had pitched. They could be an solid three man stack now that they have a terrible pitcher to snap out of the funk against.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eugenio Suarez

Secondary options – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Three man stack

Reds Probable Starter – Anthony DeSclafani, RHP 

4.46 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 21.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .250 average, .375 wOBA, 19.4 K rate, 46.5 fly ball rate and 42.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .242 average, .276 wOBA, 23.5 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 44.8 hard hit rate

It’s going to be hard to pass on some Giant hitters from a ball standpoint seeing the massive upgrade in parks and the fact that DeSclafani gives it up to lefty hitters. His 2.66 HR/9 is massive and the perfect spot for Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford. I would prefer Belt and his .245 ISO and .395 wOBA to Crawford and his .142 ISO and .325 wOBA. They are very close in both xwOBA and ISO against the four seam and sinker mix from DeSclafani. Alen Hanson is the only other Giants hitter with an ISO over .200 versus righty pitching so while DeSclafani isn’t a good pitcher, I’m likely to stick to those two hitter tonight.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford

Secondary Options – Alen Hanson, Buster Posey, Andrew McCutchen

Home Run Pick – Brandon Belt

DFS MLB – Rays at Red Sox

Rays Probable Starter – Bullpen Day 

We’re not sure yet who’s going to pitch the bulk of the innings here but I’m pretty sure we’re going to be interested in our normal Red Sox hitters at home regardless. Is there any pitcher in the Rays bullpen that’s going to scare you off of Mookie Betts or J.D. Martinez? I didn’t think so. I likely wouldn’t use hitters like Mitch Moreland and maybe Andrew Benintendi until we had a better idea of the Rays plans. The best guess might be Yonny Chirinos. Jalen Beeks just pitched two days ago so he’ll be out and Ryan Yarbourgh pitched yesterday. If it is Chirinos, he’s been reverse splits so that would put me even more towards Betts and Martinez. They both have an OPS over 1.000 and a wOBA over .440. They possibly represent a good pivot in GPP from the high-priced Indians in the better matchup.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Options – Steve Pearce, Mitch Moreland, Andrew Benintendi

Red Sox Probable Starter – Brian Johnson, LHP 

3.95 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 22.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .225 average, .290 wOBA, 25.6 K rate, 42.0 fly ball rate and 31.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .274 average, .333 wOBA, 21.1 K rate, 39.3 fly ball rate and 32.0 hard hit rate

Johnson might just be our first super cheap pitcher that I might be interested in this evening. He’s been fairly productive in his time in the rotation and the Rays have cooled off against lefties as the season has worn on. In the past 30 days, they are 26th in ISO and all over the board with the other metrics. The strikeout rate has hovered around 23 percent on the season and they only have a couple hitters that really scare you. Willy Adames has been heating up and I’d be interested in him if he wasn’t $900 more than Crawford in Cincinnati. C.J. Cron has a .196 ISO overall but he also has just two double-digit point efforts in his last 14 games. I don’t think I’ll have many Rays, even if I end up not using Johnson.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – C.J. Cron, Willy Adames, Matt Duffy

Home Run Pick – J.D. Martinez

DFS MLB – Rockies at Braves

Rockies Probable Starter – Kyle Freeland, LHP 

3.02 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 19.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .198 average, .261 wOBA, 27.5 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 26.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .244 average, .308 wOBA, 17.3 K rate, 33.7 fly ball rate and 32.2 hard hit rate

If it looks like Brandon Belt might be pretty chalky(decent chance), the perfect price point pivot is Tyler Flowers for the Braves. The term “lefty masher” might not be enough to describe Flowers this season since every single number for tonight is spiked super high. Over the season, he has a 1.357 OPS, .302 ISO and .562 wOBA. If those monster numbers aren’t enough for you, how about a .619 xwOBA and a .529 ISO versus the four seam/cutter combo Freeland throws 61 percent of the time? There’s a solid chance I could play both in the same lineup if I need cheap hitters. Freeland is giving up virtually no power against lefty hitters so I don’t think it’s a Freddie Freeman kind of night. I’ll stick with righties like Johan Camargo with a beastly .263 ISO and Dansby Swanson. He’s relatively expensive, but riding a hot streak and he has a .606 xwOBA versus Freeland through seven at-bats.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Tyler Flowers/Kurt Suzuki, Johan Camargo

Secondary Options – Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, Freddie Freeman

Braves Probable Starter – Sean Newcomb, LHP 

3.40 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 21.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .174 average, .299 wOBA, 26.0 K rate, 40.0 fly ball rate and 38.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .227 average, .291 wOBA, 20.9 K rate, 34.6 fly ball rate and 32.8 hard hit rate

Speaking of pivot plays, Nolan Arenado is quite the differentiator instead of Jose Ramirez in almost as good as a spot. Due respect to Newcomb but Arenado has made lefties look like rec league softball pitchers for a while now. This year is no different with a 1.369 OPS, .450 ISO and a .553 wOBA. Newcomb also lives on his fastball and unsurprisingly, Arenado destroys that pitch with a .448 ISO and a .463 xwOBA. If you’re not paying up for Lindor at shortstop, Trevor Story might be the next best options and is significantly cheaper. His OPS is over 1.000, the ISO is over .300 and the wOBA is over .420 to go along with the pitch data of a .172 ISO. These two would be very popular if the game was in Coors but that shouldn’t deter you from looking their way tonight.

Rockies Hiters to Target 

Elite Options – Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story

Secondary Options – DJ LeMahieu, Ian Desmond, Charlie Blackmon

Home Run Pick – Tyler Flowers and Nolan Arenado

DFS MLB – Angels at Rangers

Angels Probable Starter – Odrisamer Despaigne, RHP 

5.31 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 19.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .303 average, .334 wOBA, 16.2 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .245 average, .306 wOBA, 22.2 K rate, 22.2 fly ball rate and .27.0 hard hit rate

It’s only a 20 inning sample size  but about the only good thing Despaigne has done so far is only given up one home run. This is going to be his first start with the Angels and it’s not easy task in Texas versus the Rangers power bats. Nomar Mazara returned to the lineup last night with a bang when he launched a home run and the $2,500 price makes him feel like a potential free square in cash. He might be the “good” type of chalk since he’s carrying a .393 ISO and a .473 xwOBA versus the sinker/cutter mix and he backs it up with a .342 wOBA on the season. You have to like Joey Gallo, Shin-soo Choo, Rougned Odor and even Jurickson Profar tonight as well. There’s no reason to think Texas can’t hang a crooked number here.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nomar Mazara, Shin-soo Choo, Rougned Odor

Secondary Options – Joey Gallo, Jurickson Profar, Elvis Andrus

Rangers Probable Starter – Drew Hutchison, RHP 

6.07 ERA, 1.75 WHIP and 15.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .333 average, .408 wOBA, 15.8 K rate, 35.0 fly ball rate and 30.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .246 average, .389 wOBA, 15.6 K rate, 35.3 fly ball rate and 39.6 hard hit rate

I was ready to say that lefty Mike Minor would actually be a really fun tournament play tonight but he’s been pushed back as he battles some back stiffness. Enter Hutchison, who is a very poor pitcher who struggles against lefties. If you liked Kole Calhoun and Shohei Ohtani last night, it’s perfectly reasonable to go right back to the well tonight. Calhoun put up a big game while Ohtani was mostly quiet but that could change tonight since Ohtani still has an ISO over .300 on the season. In just 17 innings, Hutchison has already given up five home runs to righty hitters so we can’t overlook Justin Upton, even at his elevated price point.  If you need a cheap option, Francisco Arcia is hitting for a .344 ISO and .414 wOBA through 33 at-bats against righty pitching this season. This game looks like it could shootout yet again.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Kole Calhoun, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton

Secondary Options – Andrelton Simmons, Francisco Arcia

Home Run Pick – Nomar Mazara and Francisco Arcia

DFS MLB – Tigers at Twins

Tigers Probable Starter – Matt Boyd, LHP 

4.20 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 21.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .222 average, .285 wOBA, 25.8 K rate, 43.5 fly ball rate and 43.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .216 average, .287 wOBA, 20.2 K rate, 47.5 fly ball rate and 35.2 hard hit rate

I truly don’t know what to do with Boyd tonight. Part of me looks at his home/road splits and sees the road ERA is about three runs higher but the FIP and xFIP don’t really match the ERA. He’s also really owned the Twins current hitters through 122 at-bats, surrendering just a .249 xwOBA and two home runs. The splits with the handedness really doesn’t seem to bother Boyd either way but the fly balls are always going to concern you. I usually like Max Kepler in a lefty on lefty matchup but Boyd throws the slider about 40 percent of the time and Kepler is terrible against that pitch with a .284 xwOBA and a .053 ISO. Miguel Sano could be an option but in 23 at-bats versus Boyd, he’s stuck out 13 times. If you want to chase the one home run, be my guest but that’s too low probability for me. The Twins don’t rate all that well for me on this slate.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Miguel Sano, Mitch Garver, Logan Forsythe

Twins Probable Starter – Kyle Gibson, RHP 

3.49 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 22.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .243 average, .300 wOBA, 19.4 K rate, 33.8 fly ball rate and 39.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .213 average, .291 wOBA, 25.8 K rate, 27.0 fly ball rate and 38.1 hard hit rate

Gibson just put up 40 points versus this Detroit lineup last start and even though he is generally worse at home, he should still be in a solid spot against a Tigers team that is horrid against righty pitching. I would rather payoff him than Boyd in this game and there aren’t that many hitters that interest me from the Tigers offense. One that would is Niko Goodrum, who has three homers in his last seven games to go along with the highest ISO on the team at .224. Nicholas Castellanos joined his teammate in leaving the yard last night and would be about the only other hitter I’d give serious consideration to. If you wanted another lefty play, look at Jim Aducci. He’s cheap and he has a .333 wOBA versus righty pitching this year. I’m still not willing to attack Gibson that heavily.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Niko Goodrum

Secondary Options – Nicholas Castellanos, Jim Aducci

Home Run Pick – Jim Aducci

DFS MLB – Royals at White Sox

Royals Probable Starter – Jakob Junis, RHP 

4.82 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 22.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .272 average, .354 wOBA, 19.3 K rate, 40.6 fly ball rate and 40.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .245 average, .327 wOBA, 24.7 K rate, 37.0 fly ball rate and 40.7 hard hit rate

Junis has been pitching more like the pitcher he generally is than the first half when he was just getting worked over. In five starts since the All-Star break, he’s only given up two homers so he’s really not the gas can the stats would paint him as lately. I generally look at who hits the slider well when Junis takes the mound because it’s one of his primary pitches. The only two hitters that look pretty decent are Nicky Delmonico and Matt Davidson, with Delmonico leading the way in ISO at .438. Davidson is sitting at .182 so that’s not too shabby either. Yoan Moncada does have a .902 xwOBA but that’s only in five at-bats. I really don’t think Junis is the worst play tonight. The White Sox lead the league in strikeout rate versus righties so if Junis can continue to keep the ball in the yard, there’s attainable upside.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Matt Davidson, Nicky Delmonico, Yoan Moncada

White Sox Probable Starter – James Shields, RHP 

4.41 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 18.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .215 average, .307 wOBA, 18.8 K rate, 42.6 fly ball rate and 31.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .255 average, .320 wOBA, 17.6 K rate, 44.4 fly ball rate and 35.3 hard hit rate

Shields pitches just well enough to ruin the players you used against him, which is quite frustrating. I generally stay away from the lefty hitters because Shields has a changeup that really locks them down. He’s also significantly better at home this year so this game is mostly a steer clear for me. If you had to play Royals, you want to look at righties and that leads us to Salvador Perez first. The .206 ISO looks fine but the .302 wOBA is ver mediocre. I just can’t see much of a reason to use Royals hitters on this size slate.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Salvador Perez, Whit Merrifield

Home Run Pick – Matt Davidson

DFS MLB – Brewers at Cardinals

Brewers Probable Starter – Freddy Peralta, RHP 

4.47 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 31.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .252 average, .376 wOBA, 28.6 K rate, 44.8 fly ball rate and 41.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .084 average, .174 wOBA, 34.9 K rate, 56.4 fly ball rate and 36.8 hard hit rate

We’re still very early into his major league career but so far, Peralta has looked mostly good with immense strikeout upside. That may hold especially since the Cardinals lineup is extremely righty heavy. He’s lived on the for seam and curve so far this year and the Cardinals look really good versus the fastball. Still, I generally side with the pitcher but make clear – you can’t use Peralta in cash games whatsoever. He’s a tournament or bust player. You’re likely going to need some luck if Peralta is going to have a good game but he’s cheap enough to chase. Matt Carpenter is the only hitter that you fear since he’s scary level and he’s got a .438 ISO and .519 xwOBA against righty fastballs.  Just about everyone else in the lineup is righty, which should play right into what Peralta does well. The Cards are about mid-pack in strikeouts right now.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Options – None

Cardinals Probable Starter – Jack Flaherty, RHP 

3.22 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 30.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .188 average, .264 wOBA, 26.4 K rate, 33.1 fly ball rate and 31.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .217 average, .306 wOBA, 34.1 K rate, 39.5 fly ball rate and 35.6 hard hit rate

It’s only a 46 at-bat sample size but the Brewers hitters have not seen Flaherty well, with a combined .130 average, .222 xwOBA and one home run. If we’re looking for the contrarian one-off play, Jesus Aguilar might be the way to go. He hits the pitch mix really well with a .364 ISO and a .406 wOBA to go along with his .309 ISO through the season and you might have a winner. Milwaukee might put up a run or two but Flaherty could have a big game. His strikeout rate is elite and the Brewers have a top five strikeout rate against righty pitching this year. Combine that with the fact it’s not in Miller park and there’s not that many interesting players from this side.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Jesus Aguilar, Lorenzo Cain, Jonathan Schoop

Home Run Pick – Matt Carpenter

DFS MLB – Astros at A’s

Astros Probable Starter – Charlie Morton, RHP 

2.88 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 30.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .211 average, .315 wOBA, 37.5 K rate, 34.9 fly ball rate and 41.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .206 average, .266 wOBA, 23.8 K rate, 53.5 fly ball rate and 24.4 hard hit rate

Oakland is kind of a mediocre matchup all the way across the board but that also doesn’t mean Morton is a slam dunk play. I want the lefties here because the HR/9 is over 1.40 on the road. Matt Olson is quietly a great play via the pitch data. Morton is basically a four seam/curve pitcher to lefties and that’s a good thing for Olson and his .350 ISO and .418 xwOBA against it. The .248 ISO through the season trails only Khris Davis so he would be a fantastic tournament play at $3,000. I think that you either play Morton or you do a two man mini stack with Olson and Davis. If not, there’s better spots to exploit.

A’s Hitters to target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary options – Matt Olson, Khris Davis, Two Man Stack

A’s Probable Starter – Edwin Jackson, RHP 

2.48 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 19.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .194 average, .277 wOBA, 18.2 K rate, 41.9 fly ball rate and 34.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .200 average, .251 wOBA, 20.0 K rate,  35.8 fly ball rate and 32.4 hard hit rate

The Houston offense went Godzilla against the Rockies last game and it would seem like maybe Jackson is next in line to feel the nuclear breath. Jackson has been oddly very productive and I don’t know what to do with him. I’d lean towards he gets smacked by Houston, especially since George Springer should be back. He, Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman all have ISO’ over .130 and wOBAs over .320. That could be the way to go since all three are $4,000 or less. The interesting lefty could still be Tony Kemp if he’s in the letup tonight. The return of Springer might put him on the bench, but we’ll see.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Alex Bregman

Secondary Options – Carlos Correa, Geroger Springer, Tony Kemp

Home Run Pick – Matt Olson

DFS MLB – Diamondbacks at Padres

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Robbie Ray, LHP 

4.83 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 30.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .132 average, .228 wOBA, 32.9 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 34.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .280 average, .369 wOBA, 30.0 K rate, 41.8 fly ball rate and 45.1 hard hit rate

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before – Ray is probably the biggest boom or bust option on the slate. He’s got elite strikeout stuff when he’s on and he’s throwing batting practice when he’s not. They can load up their lineup with eight righty hitters which doesn’t always end well for Ray. I think Ray’s in play but if want the ultra dangerous four man stack that could either give you nine points or up near 60-70, that’s certainly a possibility. Wil Myers, Christian Villanueva, Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe all have ISO’s over .233 so they have the power to destroy Ray. Renfroe is the only one of the bunch that doesn’t have a strikeout rate over 30 percent. I think he’s a cash play and then this could be a cheap stack that is a massive late night hammer if you wanted to go that way.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Hunter Renfroe

Secondary options – Franmil Reyes, Wil Myers, Christian Villanueva

Padres Probable Starter – Joey Lucchesi, LHP 

3.45 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 25.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .229 average, .276 wOBA, 26.3 K rate, 12.5 fly ball rate and 27.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .234 average, .318 wOBA, 24.8 K rate, 36.8 fly ball rate and 42.5 hard hit rate

This isn’t a good spot for Lucchesi, even though he has pitched pretty well this season. The D-backs can roast lefties and he shouldn’t be any different. There’s potentially seven righty hitters that have an ISO over .200 for Arizona tonight. Paul Goldschmidt leads the team in wOBA and is second in ISO behind A.J. Pollock. Nick Ahmed, Ketel Marte, Daniel Descalso and even John Ryan Murphy could get in on the act. Steven Souza is right up there as well and he has a .488 xwOBA against the pitch mix. I like the value plays like Ahmed and Marte more just because that could help me Indians in the cash games. Descalso also has plenty of potential as he leads the team in ISO against the pitch mix at .333 and is cheap.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, Steven Souza

Secondary Options – Nick Ahmed, Ketel Marte, Daniel Descalso

Home Run Pick – Steven Souza

DFS MLB – Dodgers at Mariners

Dodgers Probable Starter – Walker Buehler, RHP 

3.32 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 26.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .245 average, .301 wOBA, 26.8 K rate, 32.7 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .199 average, .251 wOBA, 25.3 K rate, 29.9 fly ball rate and 35.9 hard hit rate

Buehler could be a strong mid-range option in part because the Dodgers are shockingly letting him pitch seven full innings. Seattle isn’t a huge strikeout team but Buehler is giving plenty of indications he’s for real. It appears we ant lefties but the only three in the lineup that have any sort of upside is Dee Gordon, Robinson Cano and Denard Span. Even then, there probably isn’t the highest amount of upside there. Those three hitters have a combined 15 home runs and Cano is fresh off a suspension. I don’t want to play righties against Buehler, especially given the splits.

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Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Dee Gordon, Denard Span, Robinson Cano

Mariners Probable Starter – Wade LeBlanc, LHP 

3.80 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 19.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .267 average, .326 wOBA, 20.6 K rate, 44.6 fly ball rate and 30.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .234 average, .290 wOBA, 19.2 K rate, 41.4 fly ball rate and 31.7 hard hit rate

The Dodgers might put almost all righties in the lineup but since there’s a DH, I’m hoping that Max Muncy makes the lineup since he actually hits lefties really well with a .259 ISO and a .387 wOBA. Justin Turner, Matt Kemp and Manny Machado all have ISO’s well into the .200 range, although you have to look at the Orioles numbers for Machadao. LeBlanc has been spoiling hitters all seasoning and I’ve gotten burned by the Dodgers lately, but I’m betting they put up double digits when I stop playing them. Kemp has the best pitch data with an ISO and xwOBA both over .500 against the mix for LeBlanc. $3,100 is fair to ask of a struggling stud.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Kemp, Justin Turner, Max Muncy(GPP only)

Secondary Options – Manny Machado, Chris Taylor

Home Run Pick – Max Muncy

DFS MLB – Sample FanDuel Lineup

P – Walker Buehler 

C/1B – Brandon Belt 

2B – Daniel Murphy

3B – Jose Ramirez

SS – Nick Ahmed

OF – Michael Brantley, Shohei Ohtani, Nomar Mazara

Utility – Kendrys Morales 

I’m sure I can figure out a way to pay up for Scherzer at some point today to feel comfortable but for now, I want the extra money that Buehler affords me. Belt and Morales are drastically underpriced and hard to pass up. Murphy is a nice fit given he’s facing off against Straily and Ahmed is a cheap way to have a bat going late. Ohtani and Mazara gets us a chunk of the Angels and Rangers game and we still have enough money to take two Indians.

The Core – Jose Ramirez, Shohei Ohtani, Nomar Mazara

Pitching to Consider 

High End – Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco, Charlie Morton

Mid-Range – Walker Buehler, Jack Flaherty, Cole Hamels, Robbie Ray, Freddy Peralta

Punt – Jakob Junis, Brian Johnson

Stacks to Consider – Cleveland Indians, Washington Nationals, Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox, Angels/Rangers game stack, D-Backs/Padres game stack(high risk)

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.