MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Saturday August 18
Welcome to the Saturday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Friday’s MLB DFS slate was surprisingly dominated by bats as the top three fantasy raw point performers were all hitters while the big arms of Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco were not far behind. The Dodgers stack, predictably, was under-owned again with guys like Manny Machado and Matt Kemp at 5% and 3% ownership respectively, so when they combined for 3 HR’s and 50+ fantasy points it was more than enough to push past the field that had been over-looked them on this night. VICTORY!
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Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Starting Pitching Overview:
After a night with a ton of high upside options, tonight’s starting pitching in MLB DFS feels like we are loaded with mid-range “safe” plays but lack any dominant ace that feels like a must play. There is only one pitcher, Mike Foltynewicz, who is priced over $20K on FantasyDraft, which means we will have a ton more flexibility to build rosters tonight with all the higher priced bats we could ask for.
Zack Godley ($16.8K) is the first arm that really stands out to me on this slate based off match-up, price and recent form as getting a road start against the Padres is one of the more advantageous spots for any right-handed arm as we saw with Clay Buchholz a few nights ago. Godley’s season long numbers are relatively uninspiring as his 23% K rate is not something we would jump after but in his last seven starts dating back to July 6, Godley has taken his game to another level, sporting a 28% K rate and 14% swinging strike rate all while maintaining his 50% ground ball rate.
Not only does this Padres team strike out a ton versus RHP (projected line-up at 24-25%) but they are also a significant ground ball team (47% versus 29% FB), which plays in perfectly to Godley’s strengths while getting the added ballpark boost in San Diego. Godley faced this same San Diego team on July 6th in Arizona, going 7 innings, striking out 7 and giving up only one run on his way to 26+ FPTS which would return elite value with a similar effort at this price point.
Brad Keller ($11.9K) is in an interesting SP2 position tonight and I wonder how popular he becomes as a result of the game log watchers. Keller’s pitching profile is one of a mediocre K arm, sitting in the teens throughout the minors and into the ML level, relying on a high GB rate (55%) while limiting hard contact and home runs (0.39 HR/9).
The game log watchers however are going to see a plus match-up against a White Sox team in Chicago which is exactly the same spot Keller dominated back on August 2 when he went 6.1 innings, striking out 9 and giving up 2 ER on his way to 23.45 FPTS and in fact this makes 2 of his last 3 starts where he has gone for 22+ FPTS.
The swinging strike rate of 12.5% in that game is certainly in outlier in Keller’s games this season but we know the White Sox lead the league in K % (25.7%) against RHP, so the question is – do we play the opponent or the pitcher profile?
The fact that Keller had success recently in this same exact spot is going to lead to some level of ownership and honestly, I think it is fine to eat some of that chalkiness when you consider the “safety” that Keller has shown in limiting damage. As I mentioned, there are no elite arms on this slate I think you have to pay up for so the opportunity cost is certainly not as high with your pitcher which makes me willing to roll the dice with Keller as a cheap SP2 who looks like he will get a nice pitcher’s umpire as well this evening!
MLB DFS – Top Hitting Spots:
If you have made it to this part in the article where we talk about hitting stacks, then my friends you are in for a treat because I am about to blow your mind with a sneaky stack of EPIC proportions – a team that I never talk about and certainly you are not sick of hearing about.
OK fine – it is the Los Angeles Dodgers. Again.
For once I am writing this article and I do not have to apologize for another Dodgers let down the previous night as LA went for 11 runs last night with Matt Kemp and Manny Machado leading the way to MLB DFS profit at low ownership. The ownership level on these Dodgers continues to blow my mind – I stacked Machado, Kemp, Justin Turner and Brian Dozier last night against Wade LeBlanc and not a single hitter was over 5% owned. I know they have been cold and the West Coast bias is real in DFS, but come on guys – a mediocre lefty against a proven stable of hitters who pounds lefties and we are going to completely ignore them?
I am sure tonight the ownership will tick up a bit due to last night’s outburst, but frankly it still won’t be enough against RHP Erasmo Ramirez. Let’s take a stroll through his numbers this season – a .541 ISO to LHB and .304 ISO to RHB (those are not typos, he is THAT bad) with a 44% and 55% HC rate to lefties and righties respectively. Go back to 2016-17 and this is a pitcher with a .233 ISO mark to lefties in that time with a 40% HC rate and you tell me how in the world he is navigating through this Dodger line-up that can simply slip the platoon splits and roll out a nasty core of lefty bats.
Joc Pederson (.304 ISO), Yasmani Grandal (.268), Cody Bellinger (.236) and Max Muncy (.332) all mash right-handed pitching this season and you flip to the righties and see Manny Machado (.252), Brian Dozier (.212) and Yasiel Puig (.245) are all in similar boats and there is no wonder this projected line-up has a .243 ISO versus RHP this season.
Now – this may seem like an obvious stack – awful pitcher, loaded line-up but take a guess at where the Vegas total is sitting today. Go ahead and open up your favorite odds site, scroll, keep scrolling – wait – don’t see them yet?
The Dodgers have a 4.3 run total, tied for 9th on the entire slate, which when you consider that this is actually a half run LOWER than their season average is mind-boggling to me. Listen, I do not claim to be smarter than Vegas here but what in the world am I missing?
The low(ish) total and late start all but ensure depressed ownership and on FantasyDraft where you can roster 6 of these guys – I am going to maximize that in every way and click in 6 Dodgers before I do anything else. I recommend you do the same – we can count our money together tomorrow (or tilt like crazy on Twitter until the wee hours of the morning).
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
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SP: Zack Godley ($16.8K)
SP: Brad Keller ($11.9K)
IF: Manny Machado ($9.4K)
IF: Cody Bellinger ($8.7K)
IF: Yasmani Grandal ($8.2K)
OF: Joc Pederson ($9.3K)
OF: Max Muncy ($8.9K)
OF: Yasiel Puig ($8.5K)
UTIL: Justin Upton ($9.6K)
UTIL: Robinson Chirinos ($8.6K)
Slate Overview: Without any top-tier arms to pay up for tonight, offenses should and will be stacked and I expect once the Texas and Angels total is out, we will see another big Vegas number with Mike Minor and Andrew Heaney on the mound. I do want to keep an eye on the status of Mike Trout who is eligible to return from the DL but due to a tragic loss of his brother-in-law has remained away from the team – if he does come back, him and Justin Upton would combine to be the top 1-2 stack on the board against Minor and his .224 ISO to RHB. This slate boils down to a pretty simple formula for me – stack Dodgers, lock in Godley and get some exposure to the Texas/Angels bats – rinse and repeat. We do have some weather issues to watch for so make sure you keep an eye on that today – enjoy the slate and your Saturday all!
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Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!