Fantasy Football Debate: Jordan Howard vs Devonta Freeman

CHICAGO, IL – DECEMBER 24: Jordan Howard #24 of the Chicago Bears celebrates after scoring against the Cleveland Browns in the third quarter at Soldier Field on December 24, 2017 in Chicago, Illinois. The Chicago Bears defeated the Cleveland Browns 20-3. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images)

The goal of this series is to arm you with enough information for you to confidently decide between two players with similar PPR ADP’s. Today in our Fantasy Football Debate, we break down Jordan Howard vs Devonta Freeman.

You’ve made your round 1 choice and the draft has made it back to you and it is time for a Fantasy Football Debate. Jordan Howard and Devonta Freeman are both staring you in the face. Making the correct pick in the 2nd is crucial to ensuring a winning season. It’s not the end of the world if you miss on this pick but it does make securing a playoff berth more of an uphill climb. I’m not in the shape I used to be so I’m down with laying off anything involving the combination of words uphill and/or climb.

Fantasy Football Debate: The Case for Jordan Howard

Jordan Howard broke out in week 4 of his 2016 rookie season. He carried the rock 23 times for 111 yards and added 21 more yards off 3 receptions. The key number here is 26, the total amount of times he touched the ball.

When JoHo, touches the ball 20+ times he’s elite. When he manages to get his number called 30+ times he’s a straight up savage. In his 3 career 30+ touch performances he’s scored 4 touchdowns while averaging 165 yards per game.

Howard has a combined 13 games with 20 or more touches. Six times in 2016 and seven times in 2017. Over the course of those 13 games he’s averaged 113 yards per game and scored 12 touchdowns. Clearly RB1 numbers. Why don’t we draft him that way?

Howard gets passed on as an RB1 because the addition of Tarik Cohen has turned him into a textbook two down back. 92% of Howard’s carries came on first or second down in 2017. 17 of his 19 third down attempts were on third and less than 3 situations.

Knowing what we do about Howard needing to be a bell cow to produce elite numbers, keep in mind he’s not often on the field for third downs.

The Bears enter 2017 with a new H.C., Matt Nagy and a new O.C., Mark Helfrich. Nagy comes to Chitown via K.C. and Helfrich via Oregon University after a year hiatus. Their offensive philosophy is generally to utilize speed in space, take advantage of mismatches while utilizing inventive formations and motion to create large running lanes. Tarik Cohen seems a perfect fit. Howard on the other hand, I’m not 100% sure of.

ATLANTA, GA – DECEMBER 7: Devonta Freeman #24 of the Atlanta Falcons celebrates after a carry against the New Orleans Saints at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on December 7, 2017 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images)

Fantasy Football Debate: The Case for Devonta Freeman

Devonta Freeman played 14 games in 2017. Like Howard, he’s proven decently durable over the last two seasons. Freeman finished 2017 as the RB13, seven spots below his 2016 RB6 finish.

Freeman’s teammate, Tevin Coleman is in a contract year. I do not expect his role in Atlanta’s offense to increase due to his impending departure. Coleman will most likely be next season’s Jerick Mckinnon. He’s going to generate plenty of buzz in free agency.

It would be silly to compare Coleman’s situation with Marshawn Lynch‘s last year in Seattle. We expected the Seahawks to use and abuse Lynch as if the consequences meant nothing. They weren’t expecting him to return the following season. Might as well get everything they can out of the man.

That’s not the case with Coleman. Freeman is still the Falcon’s lead back with a fat contract proving so. Atlanta added to their backfield when they drafted Ito Smith with the 26th pick of the 4th round this past April. If the falcons are preparing for life after Coleman, Smith could potentially steal playing time from Coleman.

2017 marks year two of Steve Sarkisian leading the Atlanta offense after taking over for Kyle Shanahan last season. The offense declined in Sark’s first year at the helm. I’m not necessarily convinced that the offense the Falcons ran last year was completely his. Kyle Shanahan’s influence still lingered. Sarkisian is considered a great offensive mind but that phrase gets thrown around often. He’s gonna have to step up or he’ll be printing out resumes come January.

The Offensive Coordinator has changed, their propensity for getting the ball in the hands of their running backs hasn’t. The Freeman/ Coleman duo has combined to average 29 touches per game in back to back seasons. The split has remained almost exactly the same over that time period. Freeman averages 17 touches per game and Coleman averages 12.

The fantasy community is down on Devonta Freeman compared to this time previous years. He’s a healthy, explosive back who’s slated to play 9 games this season indoors. He is just 2 seasons removed from being the overall RB1 followed by a 2016 RB6 finish.

ATLANTA, GA – AUGUST 17: Matt Ryan #2 of the Atlanta Falcons calls a play against the Kansas City Chiefs at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on August 17, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images)

Fantasy Football Debate: The Verdict

I like the stability in Atlanta more than I do in Chicago. I also like the QB and complimentary offensive weapons the Falcons run with more than I like what Chicago has going on. That being said, I do like what Chicago is building. Allen Robinson and Mitch Trubisky are pretty much a poor man’s Julio Jones and Matt Ryan.