DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Sunday, August 19

Welcome into the Sunday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have 10 games in front of us today so let’s get to it!

The Dodgers really like to toy with my emotions lately. It looked like another night when I wouldn’t really get them right until Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy both went yard in the late innings. Combine that with a massive 50 point performance from Mike Foltynewicz and we were able to overcome a couple duds in our DFS MLB lineup. We have a bunch of day baseball so let’s not dilly dally around and get to work!

DFS MLB – Rays at Red Sox

Tampa Probable Starter – Bullpen Day 

If we count the days, it appears that Jalen Beeks might be lined up to try and pitch today after Diego Castillo opens the game today. If the young lefty is the main bullet out of the pen, he could be in for a world of hurt. Mookie Betts and Steve Pearce both have ISO’s over .400 against lefties this year(Pearce in just 27 at-bats with Boston) while J.D. Martinez is no slouch with a .382 wOBA and he’s red hot as well. You can also add Xander Bogaerts into the mix here, even though his .333 wOBA versus lefties isn’t anything special. We’ll try to confirm some things before the game starts but Beeks would have a target on his back for me.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mookie Betts, Steve Pearce, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Options – Xander Bogaerts

Red Sox Probable Starter – Hector Velazquez, RHP 

2.77 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 13.7 strikeout rate

This was supposed to be a Chris Sale spot but he went back onto the disabled list Saturday(pour one out for my seasonal team) and Velasquez is going to start but he likely isn’t going to be able to go too deep into this one. He hasn’t pitched more than three innings in quite awhile so this is shaping up to be a bullpen game as well. Velasquez has given up five homers to lefties compared to zero for righties so we can start with Jake Bauers as a power threat. Unlike the Rays, it’s a little harder to predict who else is pitching since they have gone with a traditional rotation all year. I want to see how the day unfolds as far as their plan goes before I figure out what Rays to play. They aren’t my favorite offense to target on a normal day.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – TBD

Secondary Options – Jake Bauers, TBD

Home Run Pick – Steve Pearce if Beeks pitches, J.D. Martinez either way

DFS MLB – Blue Jays at Yankees

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Ryan Borucki, LHP 

3.29 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 14.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .264 average, .275 wOBA, 14.6 K rate, 20.0 fly ball rate and 28.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .280 average, .330 wOBA, 14.5 K rate, 36.9 fly ball rate and 32.6 hard hit rate

Giancarlo Stanton has been a points machine lately and he hit another home run yesterday. Even at $4,800 he’s going to be very attractive today. The pitch data isn’t quite as good as I thought it would be for Stanton with a .264 ISO and .469 xwOBA. It sounds funny that I consider those numbers “worse” than I thought but he’s carrying a massive .356 ISO and .458 wOBA against lefties overall this year. Aaron Hicks actually has a higher xwOBA and ISO against the pitch data and has a high .295 ISO overall versus lefties this year. He’s also $900 cheaper so he’s just as solid as an option. You can roll out Gleyber Torres or Miguel Anduajr as well, though the stats don’t jump up and bite you. Just keep in mind Borucki has only given up one home run through a little over 50 innings.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks

Secondary Options – Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres

Yankees Probable Starter – J.A. Happ, LHP 

3.68 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 26.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .165 average, .226 wOBA, 25.8 K rate, 28.9 fly ball rate and 29.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .229 average, .305 wOBA, 26.7 K rate, 44.7 fly ball rate and 31.0 hard hit rate

If J.A. Happ want to have a Revenge Game today, he’s going to be facing a tough challenge. Three hitters have a .200 ISO or higher against lefties so far and the first two of Teoscar Hernandez and Devon Travis might not be too surprising. The third hitter being Aldemys Diaz is surprising and he really might be a great under the radar option. Happ throws the four seam about 50 percent of the time and Diaz smokes that pitch with a monster .467 ISO and .432 xwOBA. Add that into a 44.7 fly ball rate at Yankee Stadium and it could be a hard road for Happ. If you’re looking for another hidden gem, Russell Martin has a .324 wOBA and a .200 ISO versus the four seam. He would be a great differentiator to a Blue Jays stack.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Aledmys Diaz, Tesocar Hernandez, Devon Travis

Secondary Options – Russell Martin

Home Run Pick – 

DFS MLB – Orioles at Indians

Orioles Probable Starter – Yefry Ramirez, RHP 

5.40 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 22.5 strikeout rate

vs LHH – .243 average, .348 wOBA, 23.9 K rate, 48.0 fly ball rate and 28.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .235 average, .327 wOBA, 20.9 K rate, 46.0 fly ball rate and 31.8 hard hit rate

If this was any other offense, I might actually take a shot at Ramirez near minimum price but even given Cleveland’s offensive struggles through the first two games, it’s too dangerous. The Indians only strikeout 19.3 percent of the time so they should be able to make plenty of contact. When that happens, good things tend to happen for Jose Ramirez and he gets a steady diet of fastballs from Yefry. Jose has a .574 ISO and .515 xwOBA against the pitch and he’s one of the best hitters in baseball. Francisco Lindor and Yonder Alonso also have an ISO over .200 against righties so this should be a blow up spot for the Indians.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Yonder Alonso

Secondary Options – Michael Brantley, Yandy Diaz, Jason Kipnis

Indians Probable Starter – Mike Clevinger, RHP 

3.38 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 23.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .239 average, .318 wOBA, 19.9 K rate, 40.8 fly ball rate and 35.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .237 average, .283 wOBA, 27.7 K rate, 36.5 fly ball rate and 36.1 hard hit rate

Clevinger isn’t really someone I like to use or pick on and I think that’s going to continue today. The Orioles do have three hitters who look like they’re threats to take Clevinger out of the yard and it’s Mark Trumbo, Trey Mancini and Joey Rickard. They all have an ISO of at least .333 versus the fastball and Clevinger throws it about 55 percent to righty hitters. If you’re just using a one-off, I would lean Trumbo. We’ll see how it stacks up with the rest of the slate but this isn’t my favorite spot for anything.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elie Options – None

Secondary Options – Mark Trumbo, Trey Mancini, Joey Rickard

Home Run Pick – Yonder Alonso

DFS MLB – Giants at Reds

Giants Probable Starter – Andrew Suarez, LHP

4.40 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 20.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .205 average, .220 wOBA, 22.6 K rate, 16.9 fly ball rate and 29.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .292 average, .360 wOBA, 20.1 K rate, 31.3 fly ball rate and 44.4 hard hit rate

There’s really not a lot to write home about for the Reds when they face a lefty except for one hitter and that’s Eugenio Suarez. I played him yesterday and he couldn’t solve Madison Bumgarner(not that there’s any shame in that) but Suarez isn’t that level of pitcher. He’s giving up a 1.68 HR/9 to righties and Eugenio has smashed lefty pitching with a 1.169 OPS, .320 ISO and a .485 wOBA. I’m heading right back to the well at the price tag of just $3,500. Two hitters that might fly under the radar are Curt Casali and Phillip Ervin. It’s a little crazy how close Ervin’s numbers are to Suarez in just 21 at-bats and he’s super cheap at $2,400. My Reds exposure might be limited but there are great individual options.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Eugenio Suarez

Secondary Options – Curt Casali, Phillip Ervin

Reds Probable Starter – Luis Castillo, RHP 

5.04 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 22.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .298 average, .384 wOBA, 21.6 K rate, 38.7 fly ball rate and 43.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .217 average, .277 wOBA, 23.0 K rate, 29.8 fly ball rate and 35.1 hard hit rate

Speaking of right back to the well, how do you feel about the Giants lefties today? They have laid a massive egg in this series so far but their lefties remain in a great spot by the numbers again today. You kind of get the feeling that if you don’t play them today after the past two, they’re going to go nuts. I don’t want righties but Brandon Belt is the primary option yet again. He has a .233 ISO against the fastball/changeup mix that is Castillo’s bread and butter and that meshes well with the .390 wOBA that Belt has through the season. Alen Hanson is also a solid pick with a .224 ISO and he’s the only other Giant hitter with an ISO over .200 on the year. This spot is all about how jumpy you are after the Giants have got shut down the past two days.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Brandon Belt

Secondary Options – Alen Hanson, Joe Panik, Brandon Crawford

Home Run Pick – Phillip Ervin

DFS MLB – Cubs at Pirates

Cubs Probable Starter – Jose Quintana, LHP 

4.46 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 20.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .216 average, .275 wOBA, 23.1 K rate, 22.7 fly ball rate and 28.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .252 average, .344 wOBA, 19.7 K rate, 37.5 fly ball rate and 38.3 hard hit rate

For those of you that haven’t read before, I have a favorite player when the Pirates go against a lefty and I just have one question for you – Who wants to walk with Elias?? It’s appropriate that on the day of WWE’s SummerSlam event that we will be targeting Elias Diaz, since he has a .246 ISO and .420 wOBA to go along with his 8.6 strikeout rate. He also smacks the four seam/sinker combo from Quintana with a .316 ISO and .422 xwOBA. Quintana has been strikingly average this year so we can use some righties if we want. One of the free squares in cash could wind up being prospect Kevin Newman. He’s listed as a shortstop and is minimum price. If you read his profile on FanDuel, he’s hitting .336 against lefties in AAA. Hopefully my Buccos aren’t dumb enough to call up a legitimate prospect and leave him on the bench constantly.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Elias Diaz, Josh Bell, Starling Marte, Kevin Newman

Secondary Options – David Freese, Josh Harrison

Pirates Probable Starter – Jameson Taillon, RHP

3.66 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 21.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .273 average, .327 wOBA, 17.2 K rate, 30.4 fly ball rate and 32.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .228 average, .265 wOBA, 25.3 K rate,  31.0 fly ball rate and 29.4 hard hit rate

Taillon has been pretty solid lately but some of the Cubs have had his number through their career. He’s given up four home runs in 103 at-bats and Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez have two each. They also each hold a batting average of at least .500 and an xwOBA of at least .396 with Baez being much higher. The Cubs have been far too quiet in this series so far and that means they’re primed to put some runs up at some point. f you think Taillon is going to get beat up, Ian Happ and Kyle Schwarber both have ISO’s of at least .197. Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist both have a batting average over .300 versus Taillon so this could go very poorly.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez

Secondary Options – Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward

Home Run Pick – Elias Diaz

DFS MLB – Rockies at Braves

Rockies Probable Starter – German Marquez, RHP 

4.51 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 25.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .294 average, .355 wOBA, 18.3 K rate, 34.1 fly ball rate and 33.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .207 average, .289 wOBA, 32.6 K rate, 26.1 fly ball rate and 34.4 hard hit rate

The splits are a little scary since the Braves are lefty heavy near the top but I think I want to go after him since most of his negative stats come in Coors Field. Seven of his last eight starts have been 40 or more points or more on FanDuel so he’s been red hot. The pitch data actually leans a little bit towards Marquez as the highs ISO among lefties is Ozzie Albies at .265. The next largest mark is Freddie Freeman at .215 so this matchup might not be bad as everyone thinks. He’s only giving up a .228 average and just a .288 wOBA. I’m not all that interested with tangling with lefty hitters from the Braves today. I think Marquez might wind up being my favorite option.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman

Braves Probable Starter – Anibal Sanchez, RHP 

3.07 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 24.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .205 average, .278 wOBA, 25.0 K rate, 32.2 fly ball rate and 29.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .214 average, .289 wOBA, 23.7 K rate, 40.9 fly ball rate and 28.9 hard hit rate

Sanchez strikes out more batters than one might think and he gets one of the better strikeout matchups in baseball since the Rockies are on the road. There’s just nothing pointing towards playing the Rockies hitters today. He’s slightly reverse splits so that means that I might head towards Trevor Story if you play a Rockies hitter. He actually has a higher ISO and wOBA than Nolan Arenado at this point of the year. He’s also swiped 14 bases off of righty pitching so that’s always something that could happen as well. The best lefty is David Dahl with a team leading .258 ISO and .396 wOBA against righty pitching.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options –  Trevor Story, David Dahl, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon

Home Run Pick – Trevor Story

DFS MLB – Marlins at Nationals

Marlins Probable Starter – Jose Urena, RHP 

4.74 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 19.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .272 average, .336 wOBA, 17.3 K rate, 31.9 fly ball rate and 45.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .245 average, .297 wOBA, 21.2 K rate, 27.7 fly ball rate and 37.6 hard hit rate

I didn’t include the “jerk baseball player” metric for Urena, although it’s off the charts after he plunked Braves rookie Ronald Acuna early this week. He frankly shouldn’t even be starting this game but here we are. If there’s any justice in the baseball world, the Nationals are going to light Urena up and he’s worse against lefties so there’s a chance it happens. Juan Soto is going to be at the top once again and maybe he can exact some revenge for his fellow wunderkind Acuna with his .224 ISO and .391 wOBA. Urena throws the fastball over 50 percent of the time and Soto wrecks that pitch with a .386 ISO and .486 xwOBA. Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy are up next and Harper is up at a .297 ISO on the season and has been on a tear lately. Murphy is a little too expensive for me at $3,600 but it’s a good bet that many people will be off the Nationals today after they ruined some nights last night.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Juan Soto, Bryce Harper

Secondary Options – Daniel Murphy, Adam Eaton

Nationals Probable Starter – Gio Gonzalez, LHP 

4.12 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 20.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .223 average, .268 wOBA, 28.4 K rate, 26.8 fly ball rate and 29.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .268 average, .343 wOBA, 18.0 K rate, 30.4 fly ball rate and 32.2 hard hit rate

Gonzalez has been up and down lately and I don’t want to play him but I’m not sure if I want to play the Marlins offense either. There’s no smoking gun stat that really pushes me towards one hitter or another. Only two righties have a wOBA over .300 and it’s Starlin Castro and Brian Anderson. Neither one hits fro much power so I think this game is going to be a skip for me.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Brian Anderson, Starlin Castro

Home Run Pick – Daniel Murphy

DFS MLB – Tigers at Twins

Tigers Probable Starter – Jacob Turner, RHP 

20.25 ERA, 3.75 WHIP and 6.5 strikeout rate(6.2 IP)

This may seem like a bit of a cop out but I think the Twins are almost like a “Get out of jail” free card. If you’re not sure who play at a spot, find the nearest Twins hitter and play them. Turner is allowing at least .520 wOBA to each side of the plate and that’s going to be a problem. I would lean towards the top four or five hitters in the Minnesota which are Joe Mauer, Eddie Rosario and Jorge Polanco. Turner is so bad this year I don’t see splits as a deciding principal to scare you away and I don’t know why he’s in a major league rotation. If the Twins let us down in this spot, they might be on the “Do not play” list for awhile.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Joe Mauer, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco

Secondary Options – Miguel Sano, Max Kepler

Twins Probable Starter – Jake Odorizzi, RHP 

4.44 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 23.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .246 average, .340 wOBA, 20.9 K rate, 48.8 fly ball rate and 35.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .258 average, .332 wOBA, 25.6 K rate,  46.5 fly ball rate and 35.6 hard hit rate

It’s really hard to see the Tigers against a righty pitcher because there is always so little to love it’s hard to take them seriously. When I say there’s not much there, they are literally dead last in baseball on the road against righties in average, ISO, OPS, slugging, OBP, wOBA and wRC+. It’s not they don’t rank well. It’s not even bottom five through those categories. They are dead last in all of them and they have a top-12 strikeout rate at 23.7 percent. The only two hitters with an ISO over .170 are Nicholas Castellanos and Niko Goodrum and that’s about all I would give real consideration to.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Niko Goodrum, Nicholas Castellanos

Home Run Pick – Miguel Sano

DFS MLB – Royals at White Sox

Royals Probable Starter – Heath Fillmyer, RHP 

3.61 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 13.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .205 average, .280 wOBA, 13.5 K rate, 24.6 fly ball rate and 26.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .263 average, .331 wOBA, 13.4 K rate, 33.8 fly ball rate and 49.2 hard hit rate

There’s really only one hitter I’m looking at here because Fillmyer has actually been halfway decent and he’s reverse splits, which takes the lefties for the Sox off the table for me. Jose Abreu is usually reserved for lefty pitching, especially when he’s $3,700 but he’s got a real chance to take the ball out of the yard today. Not only does Fillmyer give up a 1.80 HR/9 in his limited action this season but Abreu has a .227 ISO versus the fours seam/slider mix that Fillmyer throws over 90 percent of the time. Avisail Garcia could be an option but a wOBA under .300 is never all that attractive.

White Sox Hitters to target 

Elite Options – Jose Abreu

Secondary Options – Avisail Garcia

white Sox Probable Starter – Reynaldo Lopez, RHP 

4.40 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 16.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .223 average, .310 wOBA, 15.0 K rate, 51.6 fly ball rate and 34.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .264 average, .346 wOBA, 17.3 K rate,  42.3 fly ball rate and 33.6 hard hit rate

Another reverse splits righty that throws his fast ball a lot, Lopez has a couple of hitters that he has to get around today. One of the is Salvador Perez, who has a .201 ISO and .301 wOBA. He also has a .445 xwOBA and a home run in 17 at-bats versus Lopez in their careers. Whit Merrifield is someone who is usually a lefty killer but for today, he can be a perfectly reasonable option. He does have a .326 wOBA even if the ISO is down at .088. The rest of the righty hitters don’t come with a ton of upside so I think we’re all set on this game.

Royals Hitters to target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Salvador Perez, Whit Merrifield

Home Run Pick – Salvador Perez

DFS MLB – Brewers at Cardinals

Brewers Probable Starter – Jhoulys Chacin, RHP 

3.72 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 19.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .254 average, .333 wOBA, 15.4 K rate, 32.7 fly ball rate and 39.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .182 average, .250 wOBA, 24.2 K rate, 36.3 fly ball rate and 34.9 hard hit rate

If you’re a righty hitter, facing Chacin has been a nightmare this year. It hasn’t been the easiest road for the lefties and that’s why Matt Carpenter has to be on the radar. If for some reason he’s to, Chacin just moved up my list dramatically because Carpenter is about the only lefty in that lineup that can really do damage. He still has an ISO over .300 and a wOBA over .400 this year so it tells you how insanely he got after a miserable start. The only lefties that could potentially be in your lineup are maybe Kolten Wong and Greg Garcia. There’ not anything that worries you if you try to mess with Chacin but it would be a Carpenter based decision.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Options – Kolten Wong(if active), Greg Garcia

Cardinals Probable Starter – John Gant, RHP 

3.74 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 20.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .219 average, .303 wOBA, 18.6 K rate, 39.8 fly ball rate and 59.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .189 average, .237 wOBA, 23.0 K rate, 29.9 fly ball rate and 29.6 hard hit rate

It would surely appear that Gant is a bit of a fraud against lefties since his xFIP and Fit are right around 4.80. We’re going to be looking at the same four hitters we did yesterday in Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw, Eric Thames and Mike Moustakas. Shaw and Thames have an ISO over .275 while Yelich and Moustakas are a good deal lower than that. Thames has been ice cold and had a collision in the outfield that kept him out of the lineup yesterday so I think he’ll be out for me. The other three are all under $4,000 and They all rate well against the four seam/change combo that Gant throws. They could really make a great three man stack in GPP and if I’m only playing one, I think it’s Shaw. He’s only $200 more expensive and I think the gap in the numbers is easy to justify that paltry sum.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elte Options – Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw

Secondary Options – Mike Moustakas, Jesus Aguilar

Home Run Pick – Travis Shaw

DFS MLB – Sample FanDuel Lineup

P – German Marquez 

C/1B – Elias Diaz 

2B – Travis Shaw 

3B – Eugenio Suarez

SS – Kevin Newman 

OF – Christian Yelich, Phillip Ervin, Teoscar Hernandez

Utility – Jose Ramirez 

Marquez is hot and it would appear that the lefty heavy top of the Braves lineup shouldn’t be a reason to shy away from him. We’re going to Walk With Elias and maybe Newman will finally get to start a baseball game. Then we have two more sets of two man stacks from Milwaukee and Cincinnati. Add in  couple one-offs with major home run potential in Hernandez and Ramirez and we’re looking solid as of this writing.

The Core – Eugenio Suarez, Elias Diaz, Kevin Newman(if active)

Pitching To Consider 

High End – German Marquez, Mike Clevinger

Mid-Range – Jhoulys Chacin, Anibal Sanchez

Punt – Jake Odorizzi, Heath Fillmyer

Stacks To Consider – Blue Jays/Yankee game stack, Boston Red Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates, Cleveland Indians, Milwaukee Brewers lefties

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.