DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Tuesday, August 21

Welcome into the Tuesday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have a monster slate in front of us so let’s dig in for some fantasy goodness!

There’s so much in front of us, we’re not going to dive too deep into last night since it was a fine night but nothing special. For the first time in quite awhile, we have a full 15 game DFS MLB slate so let’s just dive in.

DFS MLB – Braves at Pirates

Braves Probable Starter – Kevin Gausman, RHP 

4.22 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 19.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .261 average, .334 wOBA, 19.3 K rate, 34.5 fly ball rate and 28.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .282 average, .336 wOBA, 18.8 K rate, 29.8 fly ball rate and 35.6 hard hit rate

Gausman is pretty much always a complete guess when he takes the mound. He’s just one of those pitchers that no outcome ever surprises you. I would lean towards using righty bats against him since the HR/9 rate is 1.47 compared to 1.28 to lefties. Two righties pop out in the pitch data as well with David Freese and Francisco Cervelli having a .254 or higher ISO and an xwOBA of at least .432. Those two hitters have a .360 wOBA or higher on the season and let’s not leave out the two big lefties in the Pirates lineup. Both Corey Dickerson and Gregory Polanco are over .200 for their ISO on the season and even righty Starling Marte is above .185. We’ll see if Marte is back in the lineup after being benched yesterday. This doesn’t look like the best spot for Gausman on paper.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Francisco Cervelli, David Freese

Secondary Options – Gregory Polanco, Corey Dickerson, Starling Marte

Pirates Probable Starter – Ivan Nova, RHP 

4.26 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 16.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .292 average, .365 wOBA, 11.2 K rate, 39.9 fly ball rate and 32.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .250 average, .306 wOBA, 21.2 K rate, 27.9 fly ball rate and 34. hard hit rate

Nova is the prototypical Pirates righty in that he leans on his fastball and sinker to get ground balls and he’s a good bit worse against lefty hitters. Has has been worlds better at home with an ERA almost two full runs better at PNC Park. Even with the better ERA, he’s still giving up a .329 wOBA and he’ll have to face lefty hitters from the 2-5 spots in the batting order. Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis and Ender Inciarte should make up the meat of this order tonight and all five of them have an ISO of at least .162 against Nova’s main pitches. I would probably prioritize Freeman, Markakis and Camargo since those three have the highest ISO and wOBA of the five through the season. I’d probably leave Ronald Acuna out because Nova has only given up three homers to righties at home. Nova is a pitcher that always looks like a good pitcher to stack against but there’s a chance he succeeds in the matchup.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis, Johan Camargo

Secondary Options – Ender Inciarte, Ozzie Albies

Home Run Pick – Adam Frazier

DFS MLB – Phillies at Nationals

Phillies Probable Starter – Vince Velasquez, RHP 

4.13 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 26.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .250 average, .340 wOBA, 24.3 K rate, 42.0 fly ball rate and 34.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .206 average, .275 wOBA, 28.4 K rate, 39.9 fly ball rate and 30.9 hard hit rate

Velasquez is a talented pitcher but this is not a good matchup on paper for him. He’s significantly worse against lefty hitters and even though his home numbers still look worse than they truly are after giving up 10 to the Brewers in one start. The Phillies righty uses his fastball almost 60 percent of the time and there’s potentially five hitters that rate really well against it. Juan Soto and Bryce Harper both have ISO’s over .280 while Matt Adams and Daniel Murphy are up over .185. Even Adam Eaton is in play here, though you’re just hoping for hits and runs from the leadoff spot. All five of these players have an xwOBA of at least .375 versus the pitch. All five of these hitters have a .350 wOBA or higher on the regular season as well so this might not end well for Velasquez tonight. He does have a high enough strikeout rate against lefties and is talented enough to use him in GPP but I expect him to struggle a little bit here even though I might not go crazy with Nationals.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Options – Adam Eaton, Matt Adams

Nationals Probable Starter – Tanner Roark, RHP 

4.13 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 19.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .254 average, .321 wOBA, 22.4 K rate, 38.9 fly ball rate and 24.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .248 average, .303 wOBA, 17.3 K rate, 34.5 fly ball rate and 30.2 hard hit rate

Roark is really not a pitcher I generally like from any angle. The Phillies do strikeout over 25 percent of the time against righty pitchers so there’s a case to be made to roll out Roark in a tournament, especially as a second starting pitcher. There is one interesting BvP not and that’s Odubel Herrera owns Roark through 42 plate appearances. He has a .429 xwOBA, .417 average and a home run. Rhys Hoskins also has hit Roark well but only through 15 at-bats so it’s not the same sample size. He does have a .340 ISO versus the four seam/sinker mix that is the main two pitches. Truthfully, there’s not much that really stands out in either direction and on a slate this large, I’m likely heading elsewhere.

Phillies Hitters to target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Odubel Herrera, Rhys Hoskins, Wilson Ramos, Nick Williams

Home Run Pick – Juan Soto

DFS MLB – Orioles at Blue Jays

Orioles Probable Starter – Dylan Bundy, RHP 

4.99 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 24.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .305 average, .385 wOBA, 19.4 K rate, 47.1 fly ball rate and 35.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .217 average, .320 wOBA, 29.1 K rate, 45.7 fly ball rate and 33.9 hard hit rate

It looks like the lefties might be more attractive tonight and while that’s not a bad play at all, I might be willing to take a risk with the righties. He can’t keep the ball in the yard regardless as he’s up to 30 on the season, most in baseball. 18 of them have come off the bat from righty hitters but the risk is Bundy strikes out near 30 percent of the righty batters he faces. He throws the four seam over 50 percent to both sides of the plate and Randall Grichuk stands out. Not only does he have the highest ISO on the team among regular players but he smashes the four seamer with a .385 ISO and a .466 xwOBA on the pitch. Curtis Granderson, Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales all have ISO’s over .300 versus the fastball so the Blue Jays are certainly a route to take tonight.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Randall Grichuk, Kendrys Morales, Justin Smoak

Secondary options – Curtis Granderson, Teoscar Hernandez, Danny Jansen

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Sam Gaviglio, RHP 

5.13 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 21.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .291 average, .361 wOBA, 14.5 K rate, 36.1 fly ball rate and 39.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .265 average, .337 wOBA, 26.7 K rate, 30.9 fly ball rate and 32.4 hard hit rate

The home/road splits for Gaviglio are almost as bad as Wei-Yin Chen, which is to say he’s been excellent at home while getting rocked on the road. He’s only given up five homers across 50 innings at home so far and I’m not a fan of the Baltimore offense as it is. The righty for Toronto throws his sinker a little over 50 percent but the Orioles haven’t seen a lot of righty sinkers, according to baseballsavant.com. The leader on the team is Chris Davis(on just 11 pitches) but he has an enormous .818 ISO and a .553 xwOBA. Stats like that catch my eye when it comes from a hitter like Davis who isn’t good at all. Every other active everyday hitter has an ISO under .100 versus the righty sinker. If you’re not comfortable with Davis, Cedric Mullins is a perfectly fine option. The sample size is too small to take seriously at this point but he’s been hitting since he was called up.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Cedric Mullins, Chris Davis, Jonathan Villar

Home Run Pick – Randall Grichuk

DFS MLB – Cubs at Tigers

Cubs Probable Starter – Kyle Hendricks, RHP 

4.11 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 20.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .238 average, .306 wOBA, 23.9 K rate, 37.1 fly ball rate and 31.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .263 average, .315 wOBA, 17.6 K rate, 26.3 fly ball rate and 30.8 hard hit rate

This is likely a steer clear spot for me for a few reasons. First, Detroit is terrible against righty pitching, ranking in the bottom five in average, slugging, ISO, OBP, OPS, wOBA and wRC+. That would generally lead you towards the pitcher but Hendricks is totally average is just about every facet. Even with the struggles Detroit has, they only strikeout about 22 percent of the time, good for middle of the pack. Nicholas Castellanos stands out for one reason and that’s because Hendricks throws a sinker to righty hitters 67 percent of the time. Castellanos has a .333 ISO and monster .702 xwOBA versus that pitch and should go vastly under owned tonight. The only two other hitters I would consider here would be Jim Aducci or Niko Goodrum. Both of those hitters have a wOBA of .324 or higher and nobody else has a mark over .299 on the season.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nicholas Castellanos

Secondary Options – Niko Goodrum, Jim Aducci

Tigers Probable Starter – Jordan Zimmermann, RHP 

4.36 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 20.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .247 average, .312 wOBA, 20.7 K rate, 40.0 fly ball rate and 33.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .287 average, .349 wOBA, 20.8 K rate, 48.9 fly ball rate and 38.7 hard hit rate

I think my favorite hitter from this side of the game might be Javier Baez. Zimmermann is giving up a 1.99 HR/9 to lefties and it’s a fairly even split whether he’s home or on the road. Zimmermann is basically a four seam/slider combo to righties and Baez has a .299 ISO against that mix. He’s a very solid bet to leave the yard tonight and then we can move into the lefties like Kyle Schwarber and Anthony Rizzo. Both of those hitters are over a .200 ISO on the season and Rizzo has a strikeout percentage under 10 this year. It’s worth noting that Zimmermann has been better at home ERA-wise but the xFIP and FIP are very close in the split. The Cubs aren’t bad but I think there might be better spots as we go.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Options – Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras

Home Run Pick – Javier Baez

DFS MLB – Indians at Red Sox

Indians Probable Starter – Shane Bieber, RHP 

4.37 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 24.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .315 average, .397 wOBA, 25.5 K rate, 42.3 fly ball rate and 48.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .267 average, .278 wOBA, 22.6 K rate, 27.7 fly ball rate and 35.6 hard hit rate

Now we’ve hit a spot that I really want to attack and focus some salary on. Bieber has been mauled on the road by lefties so far in his young career to the tune of a .329 average and .425 wOBA against. That shows up in a 5.87 FIP and 5.07 xFIP so we’re looking towards any lefty we can find in the Red Sox lineup. He’s probably a little too reliant on his four seamer at 60 percent to the lefties and the Sox are going to be able to hit that pitch.

The pair of Mitch Moreland and Andrew Benintendi sit at a .245 and .243 ISO against the pitch and if you want to go towards the cheaper end of the spectrum, Brock Holt and Jackie Bradley Jr. are at .190 and .184. Those are big numbers for hitters who aren’t know for their power, especially the second pair. As far as the seasonal numbers go, the only one of these four that doesn’t have an ISO over .190 and a wOBA of .320 is Holt. He does have an xwOBA of .417 versus the fastball so he’s still a great option. I’d lean towards just lefties but you can’t be surprised if Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez succeed tonight as well.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mitch Moreland, Andrew Benintendi, Brock Holt, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Secondary Options – Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez

Red Sox Probable Starter – Nathan Eovaldi, RHP 

3.62 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 21.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .260 average, .316 wOBA, 19.4 K rate, 35.1 fly ball rate and 34.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .214 average, .256 wOBA, 22.8 K rate, 39.3 fly ball rate and 33.6 hard hit rate

Eovaldi has been pretty solid as a member of the Red Sox so far but the Yankees are also the best offense he has faced this in those four starts. It sure looks like we want to be right back on the Indians lefties tonight since Eovaldi is worse against lefty hitters since he’s throwing a fastball or cutter 75 percent of the time. It’s probably redundant but Jose Ramirez is once again in a fantastic spot since he hits righty fastballs with an ISO well over .550 and the seasonal data is MVP level. Yonder Alonso, Michael Brantley and Francisco Lindor all have a wOBA over .330 and are perfectly fine options tonight.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley

Secondary Options – Yonder Alonso, Jason Kipnis

Home Run Pick – Andrew Benintendi

DFS MLB – Royals at Rays

Royals Probable Starter – Glenn Sparkman, RHP

4.95 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 18.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .281 average, .349 wOBA, 15.8 K rate, 38.5 fly ball rate and 42.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .280 average, .342 wOBA, 20.8 K rate, 28.9 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

We’ve only seen Sparkman for 20 innings this season and nothing really shows up in his splits that points us in a certain direction. I might give a slight lean towards lefty hitters since Sparkman has struck them out at a lesser clip which puts hitters like Jake Bauers, Mallex Smith and Ji-Man Choi on the radar. Sparkman has leaned on his four seam/slider mix almost exclusively and the lefties stand out in the pitch data. All three have an ISO over .190 which is impressive for a hitter like Smith who doesn’t hit for power. Bauers and Choi are both over .400 in xwOBA and have ISO’s over .200 on the season so they check all the boxes we want tonight. These Rays hitters might go virtually un-owned on this size of a slate.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Ji-Man Choi, Jake Bauers, Mallex Smith

Secondary Options – C.J. Cron

Rays Probable Starter – Blake Snell, LHP 

2.10 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 28.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .124 average, .179 wOBA, 30.7 K rate, 30.4 fly ball rate and 34.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .197 average, .278 wOBA, 27.9 K rate, 38.8 fly ball rate and 32.9 hard hit rate

Snell has been brought back slowly from his injury but he’s still pitched five innings in consecutive starts so it would make sense if he went a little further in this one. The Royals strike out at the seventh highest rate in baseball against lefties and they also rank in the bottom 10 of all the offensive team categories we always look at. Snell has also been near untouchable at home with a 0.97 ERA and he’s only given up a .180 average and a .240 wOBA. Whit Merrifield has a wOBA of .398 and an OPS over .900 but I wouldn’t use him against Snell tonight, nor any other Royals.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary options – Whit Merrifield

Home Run Pick – Ji-Man Choi

DFS MLB – Yankees at Marlins

Yankees Probable Starter – Masahiro Tanaka, RHP 

4.03 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 25.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .220 average, .291 wOBA, 23.8 K rate, 29.6 fly ball rate and 34.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .240 average, .330 wOBA, 26.5 K rate, 40.0 fly ball rate and 40.5 hard hit rate

This could be a pretty solid spot for Tanaka tonight as the Marlins offense canoe pesky but he sees a massive park upgrade. What’s very weird is the ERA is better on the road for Tanaka but he’s giving up home runs to righties at a much higher rate away from Yankee Stadium. Given some of these factors, I’d look towards two hitters as contrarian options in Derek Dietrich and J.T. Realmuto. When Tanaka pitches, I really only look at who hits the splitter well and Realmuto smashes that pitch with a .429 ISO. Dietrich is solid against it as well with a mark of .176 Even if we add in the slider at 38 percent, Realmuto still sits above .260. I’m not rushing to play these two in any cash setting but I think they could be great GPP options. Tanaka will likely be very popular tonight as a pitching option.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – J.T. Realmuto, Derek Dietrich

Marlins Probable Starter – Pablo Lopez, RHP 

4.79 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 19.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .253 average, .296 wOBA, 21.1 K rate, 24.3 fly ball rate and 31.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .227 average, .336 wOBA, 18.2 K rate, 32.9 fly ball rate and 35.7 hard hit rate

Gleyber Torres really has a prime matchup tonight since he’s facing a pitcher who gives up 2.35 HR/9 to righty batters and throws his four seam and sinker about 66 percent of the time. Torres absolutely destroys righty sinkers with an ISO over .600 against that pitch and Torres is right about 30 percent on just the sinker. This is also a Giancarlo Stanton Revenge Game and I think we know he doesn’t have any issues hitting homers in Miami. His ISO is always going to be high against any pitch type but it’s .289 versus what Lopez throws. I usually only pay the premium for Stanton against lefties but could make an exception tonight. Miguel Andujar is also excellent against the pitch data and he could be overlooked tonight as well.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Gleyber Torres, Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Andujar

Secondary Options – Aaron Hicks, Didi Gregorius

Home Run Pick – J.T. Realmuto

DFS MLB – Giants at Mets

Giants Probable Starter – Chris Stratton, RHP 

5.52 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 17.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .291 average, .364 wOBA, 13.4 K rate, 29.3 fly ball rate and 37.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .286 average, .358 wOBA, 23.4 K rate, 35.7 fly ball rate and 48.5 hard hit rate

Stratton isn’t that good of a major league pitcher by any measure and his splits are pretty close regardless of which side of the plate we look at. Austin Jackson has been a bit more hit and miss lately but his overall numbers with the Mets against righties still include an OPS over 1.000, an ISO over .200 and a wOBA over .450. With Brandon Nimmo on the disabled list as of yesterday, the next hitter we can look at would be Wilmer Flores. He has a .286 ISO against righty fastballs and should see that pitch 55 percent of the time. Stratton does a decent job of keeping the ball in the yard so I’m not sure if I’d go with a full Mets stack here. Jose Bautista is worth a look as well with a .275 ISO versus the fastball.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Wilmer Flores, Austin Jackson

Secondary Options – Jose Bautista, Todd Frazier, Amed Rosario

Mets Probable Starter – Steven Matz, LHP 

4.60 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 21.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .253 average, .324 wOBA, 17.3 K rate, 18.9 fly ball rate and 13.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .251 average, .343 wOBA, 22.1 K rate, 39.4 fly ball rate and 37.6 hard hit rate

For whatever reason, the Giants don’t have a ton of data for sinkers from a lefty, which is what Matz throws 56 percent of the time versus righty hitters. Most of the sample size is under 10 events but there is some potential here. It would be great if Nick Hundley found his way into the lineup as he has an ISO over .800 versus a lefty sinker but I’m not going to bank on that as anything definite. Chase d’Arnaud could be a really interesting option with his .267 ISO and .401 wOBA against lefties so far this year, which I still can’t believe I’m saying in 2018. I really don’t mind Andrew McCutchen and Buster Posey but they both have very average ISO’s and I’m not sure what the upside truly is. It’s probably better to look at them as cash plays tonight. The Giants really aren’t as good versus lefties as some might think(19th or lower in all major categories) and it’s possible Matz could be a tournament option.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nick Hundley(if active), Chase d’Arnaud

Secondary Options – Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey

Home Run Pick – Wilmer Flores

DFS MLB – Reds at Brewers

Reds Probable Starter – Sal Romano, RHP 

5.31 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 16.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .308 average, .387 wOBA, 13.7 K rate, 35.2 fly ball rate and 42.6 had hit rate

Vs RHH – .224 average, .293 wOBA, 18.7 K rate, 31.4 fly ball rate and 30.8 hard hit rate

If you read and/or played yesterday, this is going to be a rinse and repeat spot for the Brewers. Romano is a pitcher that gets blitzed by lefty hitters and throws his sinker over 60 percent of the time which make Travis Shaw a prime candidate again tonight with his .286 ISO against the sinker and his third highest ISO on the team versus righty pitching of .282. He’s only third highest in that metric because Eric Thames and Jesus Aguilar are ahead of him. However, Aguilar is a righty and Thames has been colder than cold lately. Christian Yelich has a .462 xwOBA against the sinker and is just an all-around great cash game option because there’s so many ways he can score points. His .190 ISO versus the sinker is just a hair under his seasonal mark of .190. It’s hard to see how Romano makes it through this game without getting beat up a little.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw, Mike Moustakas

Secondary Options – Eric Thames

Brewers Probable Starter – Junior Guerra, RHP 

3.73 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 21.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .240 average, .333 wOBA, 22.3 K rate, 38.5 fly ball rate and 40.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .247 average, .313 wOBA, 21.1 K rate, 38.1 fly ball rate and 38.8 hard hit rate

Guerra hasn’t been anything more than average so far this year and the only real weakness that I’m looking at is he’s given up 11 homers to lefties compared to just six to righties. That means there’s really only two hitters that really catch my eye in Scooter Gennett and Preston Tucker. Guerra throws a four seam/splitter mix about 72 percent of the time versus lefty hitters and both the Reds look solid via the pitch data. It’s only been five events with the Reds but Tucker has an .800 ISO and Gennett is at .124. That’s not good and Billy Hamilton is actually higher at .140. I always have a hard time playing Hamilton since he’s just not a good hitter but I suppose you could. Gennett has been heating back up and he would be my first choice from this offense.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Scooter Gennett

Secondary Options – Preston Tucker, Billy Hamilton

Home Run Pick – Scooter Gennett

DFS MLB – Twins at White Sox

Twins Probable Starter – Jose Berrios, RHP

3.75 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 24.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .215 average, .294 wOBA, 25.0 K rate, 40.2 fly ball rate and 35.3 hard hit rate

VS RHH – .230 average, .289 wOBA, 24.4 K rate, 35.0 fly ball rate and 31.2 hard hit rate

I can’t bring myself to use White Sox hitters against Berrios tonight. Sure, he is worse on the road by almost a full 1.50 in ERA but the Sox strikeout so much against righty pitching at over 25 percent. Through 137 at-bats against the active White Sox hitters, Berrios has a 33.3 strikeout rate, .175 average and a .228 xwOBA. He’s also only give-up three home runs, one each to Yolmer Sanchez, Jose Abreu and Leury Garcia.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Jose Abreu, Yolmer Sanchez

White Sox Probable Starter – Michael Kopech, RHP 

*Major League Debut*

A lot of baseball fans have been waiting to see what Kopech can do and he’s had a few pitches tracked by brooksbaseball.com from some winter league ball in 2017. His fastball is blazing up around 100 MPH and then his slider drops down to around 90 MPH. The biggest issue he has is he’s basically Ricky Vaughn from Major League before he gets his glasses because he doesn’t always know where the ball is going. His walk rate is 11 percent this year in the minors so while there is very legitimate strikeout upside, he could be out of this game early. I really don’t think I’m going to have much exposure to this side of the game either way but if you wanted hitters, I would just go with Eddie Rosario or Jorge Polanco. They have the best wOBA’s of everyday players at .374 or higher. You could also take a stab at Miguel Sano who has a .260 ISO against righty fastballs but I really want to see what Kopech can do before playing hitters against him.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco

Home Run Pick – Miguel Sano

DFS MLB – Padres at Rockies

Padres Probable Starter – Robbie Erlin, LHP

3.33 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 20.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .271 average, .321 wOBA, 21.4 K rate, 25.0 fly ball rate and 45.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .231 average, .256 wOBA, 19.7 K rate,  32.5 fly ball rate and 25.8 hard hit rate

If you’re playing DFS at this point of the season, you likely already know the drill. Nolan Areando gets to square off against an average lefty at home that throws his fastball over 50 percent of the time. He might be my number one priority as far as expensive offensive players tonight and let’s all take a look at the numbers and laugh. This year at home Arenado has racked up –

.462 average

.545 OBP

1.000 slugging

1.545 OPS

.538 ISO

.621 wOBA

He is legitimately one of the safest bets on the board as far as offensive players go tonight and $4,600 is way too cheap. Trevor Story and Ian Desmond both have ISO’s of at least .266 on the season and look good against the fastball as well. I wouldn’t hesitate to use Charlie Blackmon either. Erlin already has reverse splits and Blackmon has a .204 ISO against lefty fastballs. This is too good of a spot to not have a Rockies hitter or two tonight.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nolan Areando, Trevor Story, Ian Desmond, DJ LeMahieu

Secondary Options – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez

Rockies Probable Starter – Tyler Anderson, LHP 

4.39 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 22.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .278 average, .356 wOBA, 22.2 K rate, 40.5 fly ball rate and 32.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .218 average, .304 wOBA, 22.4 K rate, 39.2 fly ball rate and 32.5 hard hit rate

I’m normally a little bit cautious with Anderson is in Coors since he’s weirdly better at home. I’m not sure that’s going to be the case tonight because we have some Padres that rate too well against his main two pitchers and smack lefties. Four righty hitters have an ISO over .234 or higher  and that’s Franmil Reyes, Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe and Christian Villanueva. Now, the three not named Renfroe does strike out more than 30 percent of the time so there is a very real chance Anderson shuts this lineup down, regardless of location. Anderson has pitched well against this Padres lineup in 98 at-bats, only allowing two home runs and a .296 xwOBA. One of those bombs came from the bat of Villanueva so he and Reyes would be my priorities from San Diego since they are cheaper than Myers and Renfroe, who might be banged up with an arm injury.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Christian Villanueva, Franmil Reyes

Secondary Options – Hunter Renfroe, Wil Myers

Home Run Pick – Nolan Arenado

DFS MLB – Angels at Diamondbacks

Angels Probable Starter – Felix Pena, RHP 

4.35 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 21.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .283 average, .364 wOBA, 15.2 K rate, 31.6 fly ball rate and 36.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .200 average, .278 wOBA, 28.2 K rate, 35.3 fly ball rate and 44.9 hard hit rate

Another player who should be an offensive priority tonight is David Peralta in this matchup with Pena. He’s been drastically worse against lefties especially on the road. His FIP and xFIP are both over 6.75 on the road against lefties and Peralta wrecks the sinker/slider mix for Pena, having a .452 xwOBA and a .474 ISO. The other hitter is even more expense but Eduardo Escobar is also a great pick as he matches Peralta in the pitch data. Pena has been good enough against righties that I wouldn’t go that route tonight and spend my energy on these two hitters. Jon Jay wouldn’t be a bad choice either at the top of the lineup tonight.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target
Elite Options – David Peralta, Eduardo Escobar

Secondary Options – Daniel Descalso, Jon Jay

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Patrick Corbin, LHP 

3.18 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 30.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .242 average, .312 wOBA, 30.7 K rate, 25.9 fly ball rate and 42.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .205 average, .242 wOBA, 30.8 K rate, 28.6 fly ball rate and 40.9 hard hit rate

Mike Trout is still on the sidelines and the Angels offense against lefty pitching didn’t look good even when he was healthy. They are 19th or (way)worse in average, slugging, OBP, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. They will likely put out a lineup of at least six to seven righty hitters and with Corbin, I like to look at the slider data for the team opposing him. Corbin has a HR/9 of 0.58 to righties this year and the slider pitch data Brough me something I haven’t seen all season. Every single hitter not named Jose Briceno has an ISO of 0.00 on lefty sliders. That’s right, a 0.00 ISO against one of the main pitchers for Corbin. I had to double-check it and I won’t be playing any Angels tonight. Corbin is the highest salaried player but it might be justified.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Jose Briceno, Andrelton Simmons

Home Run Pick – David Peralta

DFS MLB – Rangers at A’s

Rangers Probable Starter – Ariel Jurado, RHP 

6.41 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 9.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .356 average, .460 wOBA, 9.8 K rate, 25.0 fly ball rate and 45.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .237 average, .239 wOBA, 9.7 K rate, 34.0 fly ball rate and 43.4 hard hit rate

It would take a decent chunk of salary, but the two man stack of Matt Olson and Khris Davis looks phenomenal tonight. Jurado has been getting crushed because he can’t strike anyone out at all and when you pitch to contact in the majors and don’t get a massive ground ball rate, you’re going to get smashed. He tries to get grounders with his sinker because that’s about all he throws, over 60 percent to both sides of the plate. Olson is a little cheaper and on the right side of the splits but Davis has the pitch data in his corner. Davis has a .602 xwOBA and a .619 ISO versus righty sinkers and a massive .325 ISO on the season. Jed Lowrie is a fine option as well because he smashes righty sinkers and might go a little under the radar. He still has a .224 ISO and wOBA over .365 on the season.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Olson, Khris Davis

Secondary Options – Jed Lowrie

A’s Probable Starter – Brett Anderson, LHP 

3.90 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 11.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .286 average, .361 wOBA, 9.1 K rate, 18.2 fly ball rate and 38.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .280 average, .330 wOBA, 12.6 K rate, 27.5 fly ball rate and 36.3 hard hit rate

I might be surprising to learn that the team leader in wOBA against lefty pitching for the Rangers is Isiah Kiner-Falefa at .361. This is a very tough spot for Anderson because his strikeout rate is so low. If you can’t miss Texas bats, it likely won’t end well for you. Four hitters have an ISO over .200 against the main two pitches of the four seam and slider and it’s Kiner-Falefa, Joey Gallo, Jurickson Profar and Robinson Chirinos. All of these hitters are in play and even though I’m not typically a Gallo fan, the lack of strikeouts changes the game for him. I can’t hate you for a Texas stack tonight. Even at home, this spot is terrible for Anderson.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options -Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Joey Gallo, Jurickson Profar, Robinson Chirinos

Secondary Options –Rougned Odor, Shin-soo Choo, Elvis Andrus

Home Run Pick – Matt Olson and Joey Gallo

DFS MLB – Astros at Mariners

Astros Probable Starter – TBD 

As of Monday night, the Astros haven’t announced their starter so we’re in wait and see mode. It will have to be a spot that we break it down once we get the information. There’s enough platoon concern with the Mariners lineup that we need to know before we decide what’s happening.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – TBD

Secondary Options – TBD

Mariners Probable Starter – Mike Leake, RHP 

3.90 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 15.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .277 average, .307 wOBA, 11.5 K rate, 28.7 fly ball rate and 36.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .265 average, .328 wOBA, 17.9 K rate, 31.4 fly ball rate and 34.2 hard hit rate

I’m heading towards the righties in this matchup since Leake has given up 13 homers to the handedness and just five to the lefties. The first two righties that catch my eye are Alex Bregman and Tyler White. Bregman is likely the offensive MVP for the Astros and has a .231 ISO to go along with a .382 wOBA on the season. White doesn’t quite have 60 at-bats this year versus righty pitching but he’s destroying it with a .280 ISO and a .410 wOBA. He looks excellent against the sinker/cutter combo that Leake lives on as well with a .632 xwOBA and .444 ISO. Again, it’s a very small sample but those numbers are promising. Evan Gattis only has two hits in 13 at-bats against Leake in their careers but they’ve both been home runs. Leake is always dangerous to stack against with his ground ball rate.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Tyler White, Alex Bregman

Secondary Options – Carlos Correa, George Springer(if active), Evan Gattis

Home Run Pick – Tyler White

DFS MLB – Cardinals at Dodgers

Cardinals Probable Starter – Daniel Poncedeleon, RHP 

2.04 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 15.2 strikeout rate(17.2 IP)

Vs LHH – .143 average, .246 wOBA, 21.2 K rate, 47.6 fly ball rate and 28.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .138 average, .247 wOBA, 9.1 K rate, 42.3 fly ball rate and 23.1 hard hit rate

I wouldn’t pay a ton of attention to these splits for Poncedeleon tonight since he’s only made one start at the major league level and he has to face one of the most loaded lineups in baseball. If he’s leading off, it would be hard to not play Joc Pederson on FanDuel. He’s crushed righty pitching all season and Poncedeleon has thrown his fastball a ton during his stint in the majors. Pederson has a huge .404 ISO versus the righty four seam and seven other hitters in the Dodgers lineup have a mark of .274 or higher against that pitch. There’s really not a bad play for the Dodgers tonight and Yasmani Grandal has the next highest ISO at .360. It’s a Brian Tulloch kind of night as a Dodger stack is a great late night hammer. Honestly, the hardest part is going to be sorting to just four or five in a stack.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Joc Pederson, Manny Machado, Yasmani Grandal, Justin Turner

Secondary Options – Cody Bellinger, Brian Dozier, Max Muncy

Dodgers Probable Starter – Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP 

1.77 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 30.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .154 average, .287 wOBA, 18.8 K rate, 30.0 fly ball rate and 15.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .152 average, .206 wOBA, 34.6 K rate, 35.5 fly ball rate and 38.1 hard hit rate

I usually don’t like to use Dodgers pitchers because they’re generally treated like anything over 70 pitches could break their arm off but I may make an exception here. Ryu was allowed to throw over 80 pitches in his first start coming off the disabled list so that would appear to be a good sign for tonight’s game. There’s certainly regression coming for him against lefties if nothing else with a FIP and xFIP over 5.00 but the Cardinals typically are a righty heavy lineup and the only lefty you fear is Matt Carpenter. It’s kind of crazy that he’s been so good against righty bats since he’s a lefty pitcher and Ryu has yet to be scored on in 19 innings at home. Jedd Gyorko and Harrison Bader are the normal targets here against a lefty pitcher but I’m treading lightly here.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Harrison Bader, Jedd Gyorko, Matt Carpenter

Home Run Pick – Joc Pederson and Cody Bellinger

DFS MLB – Sample FanDuel Lineup

P – Blake Snell

C/1B – Ji-Man Choi 

2B – Brock Holt 

3B – Nolan Arenado 

SS – Elvis Andrus 

OF – Joc Pederson, Randall Grichuk, Franmil Reyes  

Utility – Matt Olson 

Unless we get news during the day about an even more limited pitch count, it’s hard to go away from Snell in such solid matchup. We also have a couple of his teammates in this lineup to help make everything else work, along with a super cheap lefty from Boston in Holt. You have to make a sacrifice here or there to afford Arenado and Olson, who I think are both going deep tonight. Andrus is a very affordable option at shortstop and then we get at least a small piece of the Dodgers.

The Core – Nolan Arenado, Brock Holt, Matt Olson

Pitching to Consider 

High End – Patrick Corbin, Blake Snell, Masahiro Tanaka, Jose Berrios

Mid-Range – Hyun-Jin Ryu, Kyle Hendricks

Punt – Michael Kopech, Steven Matz

Stacks to Consider – Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, Washington Nationals, Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees, Coors Field, Milwaukee Brewers, Texas Ranger

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.