WNBA DFS Lineup Advice – 8/21/2018 (Fanduel and DraftKings)
By EJ Whelan
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of WNBA DFS Lineup Advice, a fantasy basketball column dedicated to finding you the best key players and value picks on today’s slate to build your lineups around.
The WNBA Playoffs are finally upon us! Eight teams will battle it out for the Title, four of them start on the road to the Championship tonight. It’s been tough down the stretch for a lot of WNBA DFS players. Games have been lopsided, teams have forfeited, we’ve had late scratches and zany rotations. But, I expect things to revert back to some sense of normalcy (by WNBA standards) now that the postseason has started. We have two games tonight starting at 8:30 pm ET. So let’s jump into the slate, find some key players and value picks to build our lineups around, and go win some money!!!
For those of you stopping by for the first time, I would like to thank you for checking out WNBA DFS Lineup Advice here at FantasyCPR.com Here is a brief summary of what I cover in each article:
- Where to Play (Websites, contest rules, and prizes)
- Game Times, O/U, Spreads from Oddshark.com
- Key players from each game (Over 6K on Fanduel,10K on DraftKings)
- Value picks from each game (Under 4.5-K on Fanduel, 6k on DraftKings)
- Team stats from WNBA.com
- Player projections from LineStarApp.com
- Final Thoughts on the slate. (Stacks, fades, injuries, etc.)
It’s important to remember these articles are just a first look at the slate. For injury updates, starting lineups, pictures of my dog, and any other WNBA DFS news throughout the day – follow me on Twitter @whelan_ej
WNBA DFS – WHERE TO PLAY
Fanduel – $6 entry fee (150 max) 6,862 total entries 1st place prize – $5,000
DraftKings – $10 entry fee (123 max) 4,117 total entries 1st place prize – $10,000
Bonner has been a beast lately. She’s double-doubled in three out of her last four games and scored 31 points in the other one. The Mercury won all of those games, and don’t show any signs of slowing down now. Dallas is a hungry young team and they have a better bench, but Phoenix has enough experience and talent in their starting five to win this game. The Wings have struggled this month and barely made the playoffs, The Mercury come in red hot. The Wings are the closest thing to a Cinderella team this year, but I think their story will end with a pink slip from the playoffs, not a glass slipper. The WNBA season started with Dallas playing Phoenix on May 18th. It’s only fitting that the playoffs start with these two teams as well.
8:30 pm ET Dallas Wings #8 vs. Phoenix Mercury #5 175 O/U PHO -6
DAL – Off rating 105.7 Def rating 104.1 Pace 81.7 Off ppg 86.7 Def ppg 85.3
PHO – Off rating 106.4 Def rating 102.9 Pace 80.3 Off ppg 85.8 Def ppg 83.2
Key Players:
Liz Cambage – Liz is the most expensive player on DK today and priced above every other player besides Griner on FD. She has GPP upside, the highest usage rate on the slate (29.5%), and holds the WNBA record for the most points scored in a game (53 pts on 7/17/18). That said, I will still be keeping my exposure to her today low. Her usage rate drops to 21.2% in the three previous games against PHO this season. She picked up 11 fouls in the first two games, but only 3 in the last matchup. Sancho Lyttle played the first two games, Camille Little started the third one. With Talbot on the floor, Cambage should have a little more room to operate but I’m still not big on her tonight.
Skylar Diggins-Smith – SDS is priced down on DK, but on Fanduel there are better options on the slate. She gets a decent matchup and her usage rate against Phoenix this year is 25.2%. You can pair her up with Cambage in your lineups. If Dallas plays well it will be on the shoulders of SDS and Liz but I don’t really like her alone in my lineups. It’s a small slate with tight rotations so you will have to think outside of the box to get an edge today. Paying for a few guards on FD could help, I expect the ownership to be a little higher on DK. LineStar has her projected to score 34.67 points on Fanduel.
Diana Taurasi – Taurasi let me down a bit against NY, Turner played well off the bench and Talbot went on a tear after getting elbowed in the nose. She gets a good matchup tonight, has a 27.4% usage rate against Dallas this year, and is under 8k on Fanduel. I will be stacking PHO again in a few of my lineups and will have a decent amount of exposure to Taurasi in my other builds. LineStar has her projected to score 35.88 points on Fanduel. At her price tag that should work out fine.
DeWanna Bonner – I expect her ownership to be high but sometimes you have eat-the-chalk and take the points. Her and Taurasi are priced-up on DraftKings if I had to choose one I would go with Bonner. LineStar has her projected to score 39.18 on DraftKings. She’s averaging 16.6 points and 7.3 rebounds per game against the Wings this year. Dallas gives up 8.1 steals a game to opponents and Bonner six steals in her last two games. Her fantasy numbers haven’t been big against DAL this year, and fading her could give a big step on the crowd if she has a bad game. That said, I will still have a good amount of exposure to her in my lineups.
Brittney Griner – Griner started off hot against NY and then disappeared for the rest of the game. I expect her to bounce back today. It’s not the best matchup though, and she hasn’t fared well against the Wings this year. LineStar has her projected to score 38.67 points on Fanduel. At $8,700 that’s not gonna cut it for GPPs. The late game could turn into a defensive struggle though, so targeting the studs in this game might play out better. Griner isn’t on the top of my list today, but I’m not fading her altogether.
Value Picks: Briann January (FD & DK) , Yvonne Turner ( FD & DK) ,
The Lynx and Sparks have battled it out in the WNBA Finals for the last 2 years. This season they meet in the first round of the playoffs. Each series went five games, but it’s one-and-done this time around. The Sparks have come out of the gate strong each year, winning game one of the series. That said, I’m going with the Lynx in this one. Fowles is at the top of her game right now, Moore has bounced back, and Brunson might return to action tonight. Parker and the rest of the Sparks won’t go down without a fight though, and it should be a great game to watch.
10 pm ET Minnesota Lynx #7 vs. Los Angeles Sparks #6 152.5 O/U LOS -6.5
MIN – Off rating 100 Def rating 100.5 Pace 78.4 Off ppg 78.9 Def ppg 78.3
LA – Off rating 101.1 Def rating 98.5 Pace 77.7 Off ppg 78.9 Def ppg 77
Key Players:
Sylvia Fowles – Fowles has double-doubled in eight out of her last ten games, but she has only done it once in three games against LA this season. She’s benefited on the boards with the absence of Rebekkah Brunson, who may return tonight. The Lynx are fired up right now and seem determined to send Lindsay Whalen into retirement with another WNBA Title. LineStar has her projected to score 38.08 on DraftKings. Even if this game stays low scoring I still expect Fowles to get enough done on the stat sheet to return value. But I am leaning towards Parker in this matchup.
Maya Moore – Moore is a risky play tonight, and I don’t want much exposure to her but she has gotten hot in a few games lately and isn’t afraid to shoot the ball. That said she doesn’t do much else to fill up the stat sheet and if her shot isn’t falling her floor can be pretty low. The Lynx have been relying heavily on Moore and Fowles down the stretch and I don’t expect that to change tonight. Like SDS she is another player that I feel better about stacking with her big than playing alone in my lineups. LineStar has her projected to score 31.72 points on Fanduel. If they are right, she won’t do your lineups any good tonight.
Candace Parker – Parker is a much better deal today on Fanduel than DraftKings. She has played well against the Lynx this year and score over 50 fantasy points against them earlier this month. If Nneka misses, Parkers usage rate and minutes should get a nice bump. Either way, she will be heavily involved in the game and will have the home crowd behind her. LineStar has her projected to score 37.85 points on Fanduel. At $8,100 on Fanduel she has a good chance of hitting 6x value or higher tonight. I will have a fair amount of exposure to her.
Value Picks: Lindsay Whalen (FD & DK ) , Jantel Lavender (FD & DK)
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Final Thoughts
- If you run 3 studs in your lineups you are going to need some good punts. The backcourt seems like a better place to target on this slate. I will probably keep it to one or two key players in most of my lineups. For more mid-tier options, check out my player pool later today on Twitter.
- Nneka Ogwumike is questionable due to illness. If she misses I will increase my exposure Chelsea Gray who has a nice price tag today, especially on FD. I doubt we got much news before lock though, and I don’t have much interest in Nneka tonight if she does play.
- Rebekkah Brunson could return from injury this game. That would shift Zanadalisini back to the bench, and lower the usage of some of the other starters. She relatively cheap though and should be in for big minutes if she’s healthy. She’s risky but could hit 7x value. I hope we get some news early. I’ll keep you posted.
- If you are placing side bets today I would take the over in the early game and Minnesota against the spread in the late game. If you’re betting on the Lynx get your slip in early before the news on Ogwumike comes out. If she misses I expect the spread to narrow.
- Rotations should be pretty tight tonight. The early game should be higher scoring, and you will probably get more value from the benches. I’m expecting the late game to stay pretty close and the starters to see a lot of minutes (if Ogwumike plays).
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