DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Wednesday, August 22

Welcome into the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown for Wednesday, August 22! We have a nice sized 10 game slate tonight so let’s go to work!

Tuesday night wasn’t a night to write home about. I hopped on the wrong game for starting pitchers and I really didn’t think rain was going to be a threat. The offense didn’t help either as guys like Matt Olson abandoned me. Let’s get back at it for tonight’s DFS MLB slate!

DFS MLB – Braves at Pirates

Braves Probable Starter – Julio Teheran, RHP 

4.24 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 22.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .211 average, .329 wOBA, 18.5 K rate, 42.0 fly ball rate and 41.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .194 average, .291 wOBA, 25.8 K rate, 39.6 fly ball rate and 35.5 hard hit rate

The Pirates are going to score some runs again at some point this year…I think. They continue to struggle and I could very easily see Teheran keep the misery going for Pittsburgh tonight. It also wouldn’t surprise me if Teheran gets smoked because those seem to be the only two outcomes he has anymore. He does give up more home runs to righties and he’s also worse at home so maybe a righty or two from the Pirates is worth the risk. I’m likely going to stick with Francisco Cervelli or David Freese if I play Buccos as both those hitters have ISO’s over .200 and an OPS over .800. This probably won’t be the most attractive game given the struggle for Pittsburgh lately unless it all comes out tonight.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – David Freese, Francisco Cervelli, Gregory Polanco, Corey Dickerson

Pirates Probable Starter – Trevor Williams, RHP 

3.53 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 15.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .236 average, .297 wOBA, 11.4 K rate, 39.2 fly ball rate and 27.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .233 average, .296 wOBA, 20.4 K rate, 39.7 fly ball rate and 31.4 hard hit rate

I’ve said it before but Williams is one of my least favorite players to see on any slate because it pretty much eliminates any side of the game. Williams doesn’t have any type of strikeout upside on a normal day and it might be lower even by his standards since he’ll face a bunch of lefty hitters. You can make an argument for a lefty Braves stack since Williams has an xFIP and FIP over 5.00 at home but you’re likely banking on big rallies, not home run upside. The four main lefties who should make up the 2-5 of the lineup all strikeout less than 20 percent of the time so the ball is going to be in play often. It’s just a matter of if Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis, Ozzie Albies and Johan Camargo can make hard contact and hit it where they ain’t, as the old saying goes. Williams definitely has a chance to burn a Braves stack to the ground without being fantasy relevant.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Three of four man stack, I’m not crazy about a one off.

Home Run Pick – Francisco Cervelli

DFS MLB – Phillies at Nationals

Phillies Probable Starter – Zach Eflin, RHP 

3.70 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 22.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .264 average, .340 wOBA, 21.9 K rate, 44.2 fly ball rate and 29.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .213 average, .266 wOBA, 23.5 K rate, 38.9 fly ball rate and 303 hard hit rate

Well, the Nationals made this game a lot easier to break down. They waved the white flag yesterday by dealing Matt Adams and Daniel Murphy in separate post-deadline deals and Bryce Harper was claimed on waivers, but not traded. Seeing as how Eflin has been worse against lefties, that really only leaves Harper and Juan Soto as hitters that I’d like to get after.

Soto has flat-out had the better season than Harper since his call-up and he stands out in almost every metric higher than Harper. The power against the main two pitches for Eflin is especially stark with Soto carrying a .515 ISO and Harper having a .350 mark. He’s also $500 cheaper so he would be my favorite from this side of the game.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Juan Soto, Bryce Harper

Secondary Options – Adam Eaton

Nationals Probable Starter – Stephen Strasburg, RHP 

3.90 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 28.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .226 average, .282 wOBA, 23.6 K rate, 28.0 fly ball rate and 29.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .248 average, .322 wOBA, 35.0 K rate, 37.4 fly ball rate and 41.9 hard hit rate

Strasburg is an extremely talented pitcher when everything is working for him but we also haven’t seen him in about a month. I don’t think he gets lit up because he’s been better against lefties so far this season but I’m not playing him at a five-figure salary on FanDuel. There’s really no telling what version of Strasburg but it’s hard to pay that price to find out. I actually might take a stab at Rhys Hoskins since Strasburg has a 1.66 HR/9 to righty hitters so far this year.

Hoskins leads the everyday players with a .275 ISO against righty pitching. If we get word that Strasburg won’t be on a pitch count, you can make a stronger argument to play him but he feels expensive.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Rhys Hoskins

Home Run Pick – Juan Soto

DFS MLB – Cubs at Tigers

Cubs Probable Starter – Jon Lester, LHP 

3.72 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 19.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .260 average, .357 wOBA, 20.7 K rate, 36.2 fly ball rate and 35.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .246 average, .319 wOBA, 18.6 K rate, 38.0 fly ball rate and 33.4 hard hit rate

I was on Nicholas Castellanos in a rare spot against a righty last night and it didn’t work out for me but Castellanos has my back tonight. Not only does he smash lefty pitching overall with a 1.065 OPS, .224 ISO and a .448 wOBA, he’s faced Lester nine times in their career.

He has five hits, three of which are home runs for a .784 xwOBA. He’s locked in for me this evening. Jose Iglesias should be relatively un-owned and I love him tonight as well. His OPS is closing in on .900, the ISO is .195 and the wOBA is .376. He’s expensive by his standards at $3,000 but that’s still a very reasonable price. You can add in John Hicks or Jeimer Candelario since they both have wOBA’s over .350 but Castellanos and Iglesias are my main focus.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Nicholas Castellanos, Jose Iglesias

Secondary Options – Jeimer Candelario, John Hicks

Tigers Probable Starter – Francisco Liriano, LHP 

4.72 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 18.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .141 average, .227 wOBA, 23.5 K rate, 32.7 fly ball rate and 23.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .271 average, .371 wOBA, 16.9 K rate, 32.9 fly ball rate and 34.6 hard hit rate

I don’t ever mind taking a shot with Liriano if we get the right matchup but facing the Cubs might not be it. They are ice-cold as a team right now, having hit a solo home run for their only run in the game for five straight contests right now. Still, it would be a large hill to climb for Liriano to be successful. If we like the mini two-man Tigers stack, the two-man of David Bote and Javier Baez looks just as good.

Liriano is giving up a 2.70 HR/9 to righties at home this season and both of these Cubs righties stack up well. Baez has a .400 ISO against the pitch mix and leads the team in wOBA and ISO on the season versus lefties. Well, Baez leads the active hitters and I miss Kris Bryant so bad for games like this. Bote has cooled down since being a replacement for Bryant but he still is a really good play at just $2,700.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Javie Baez, David Bote

Secondary Options – Willson Contreras, Ben Zobrist

Home Run Pick –Javier Baez and Nicholas Castellanos

DFS MLB – Indians at Red Sox

Indians Probable Starter – Carlos Carrasco, RHP 

3.33 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 27.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .245 average, .296 wOBA, 29.2 K rate, 32.6 fly ball rate and 36.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .231 average, .276 wOBA, 26.7 K rate, 35.6 fly ball rate and 40.4 hard hit rate

Carrasco has been lights out since the All-Star break but it’s tough to recommend playing him in Fenway against the Red Sox. He’s been way better on the road this season but you’d be playing the highest salaried pitcher in a bad matchup if you go that route. I don’t think it’s something I would do and the splits don’t give us much to work with either.

One kind of odd note that stuck out was in 14 at-bats, Mitch Moreland has hit a homer three times on his way to a .625 xwOBA and an xSLG well over 1.000. J.D. Martinez also has two home runs and a .453 xwOBA. I don’t want to shoehorn this side of the game into my plans tonight since there’s a very real chance it could go awry.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mitch Moreland, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Options – Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi

Red Sox Probable Starter – Brian Johnson, LHP 

4.00 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 21.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .238 average, .303 wOBA, 23.9 K rate, 43.1 fly ball rate and 27.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .268 average, .327 wOBA, 20.4 K rate, 39.7 fly ball rate and 32.8 hard hit rate

Johnson has been up and down but he’s in for a tough challenge as well, just like Carrasco. Francisco Lindor has to be really attractive at just $4,400 and even though that’s expensive, he’s typically even higher. He smashes lefties as well with an OPS of 1.020, an ISO of .208 and a wOBA of .434. The crazy part is Melky Cabrera is right behind him in all of these numbers but I’m not sure I can pay $3,500 for Cabrera.

I’d be far more likely to play Yan Gomes and his .227 ISO versus lefties for just $2,400 and use the $1,100 elsewhere in the build. Johnson has been solid enough against lefty hitters that I think I would just stick with righty hitters here.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Franciso Lindor, Yan Gomes, Melky Cabrera

Secondary Options – Jose Ramirez

Home Run Pick – Yan Gomes

DFS MLB – Royals at Rays

Royals Probable Starter – Jakob Junis, RHP 

4.76 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 22.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .269 average, .351 wOBA, 19.1 K rate, 39.5 fly ball rate and 40.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .246 average, .328 wOBA, 24.7 K rate, 39.0 fly ball rate and 40.1 hard hit rate

I think you could do worse looking for a punt pitcher than Junis tonight. We targeted him like crazy during the first half of the season because he couldn’t stop giving up home runs. For whatever reason, he’s put an end to that as he’s only given up two in 30.2 since the break and the Rays aren’t exactly loaded with power.

Tampa is about mid-pack in strikeout rate and they’re in the bottom 10 in the league for power numbers. The only two everyday players for the Rays that have an ISO over .200 are Jake Bauers and C.J. Cron and those would be about the only two hitters that I would turn to if you need it. Neither one is all that expensive but I don’t feel too good about it.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – C.J. Cron, Jake Bauers

Rays Probable Starter – TBD

We don’t have a starter listed for the Rays so there’s a pretty solid chance that it will be a bullpen day, which leaves me totally of the Royals offense. They’re not a good offense to start with and I can’t get on board using them know that the matchup can shift quickly. The slate is big enough that we don’t need to force the issue here unless something changes during the day.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – TBD

Secondary Options – TBD

Home Run Pick – Jake Bauers

DFS MLB – Yankees at Marlins

Yankees Probable Starter – Lance Lynn, RHP 

4.88 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 23.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .294 average, .376 wOBA, 15.6 K rate, 24.1 fly ball rate and 39.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .232 average, .298 wOBA, 28.3 K rate, 31.1 fly ball rate and 32.6 hard hit rate

I was excited for this matchup because I was ready to run to Justin Bour and then I remembered he plays for Philly now so my interest in the Marlins took a pretty big hit. The one remaining lefty that could be interesting is Derek Dietrich but he really doesn’t pop out by any metric that we normally trust.

I’m not sure if I’m really that interested in Lynn either because the Marlins just don’t seem to strikeout as much as the perception is either. They haven’t stuck out more than seven times in any game in the past 10 days. It’s only a 22.5 percent rate on the season which isn’t great but it’s not in the top 10 either.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Derek Dietrich

Marlins Probable Starter – Trevor Richards, RHP 

4.28 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 22.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .200 average, .274 wOBA, 24.5 K rate, 42.1 fly ball rate and 34.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .307 average, .381 wOBA, 20.6 K rate, 35.0 fly ball rate and 48.6 hard hit rate

Richards has just been getting hammered by righty bats and there’s a three-man stack for the Yankees that could be a great way to go, even if it’s a little pricey. Giancarlo Stanton missed his Revenge Game home run by about four feet yesterday but he may have dented the wall in left field in the process.

Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres both have ISO’s over .200 against righty pitching this year and will hit from the right side. With no Aaron Judge or Didi Gregorius tonight, all three of these players should make the lineup and have the power to take Richards out of the yard.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres, Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Options – Three Man Stack

Home Run Pick – Gleyber Torres

DFS MLB – Giants at Mets

Giants Probable Starter – Casey Kelly, RHP 

1.69 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 11.1 strikeout rate(10.2 IP)

Vs LHH – .300 average, .301 wOBA, 9.5 K rate, 27.8 fly ball rate and 50.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .318 average, .314 wOBA, 12.5 K rate, 21.1 fly ball rate and 21.1 hard hit rate

I wouldn’t get too carried away with these splits since it’s such a small sample size and would instead focus on the Mets hitters that I know are playable against righty pitching. The issue with the Mets is they have a bad habit of making poor pitchers look pretty good.

We only have to go back to last night for the perfect example of that when they were shutout by Chris Stratton for six innings. I’d stick with just the trio of Austin Jackson, Wilmer Flores or Michael Conforto here. They all have ISO’s over .165 and wOBA’s over .330 so they’re good enough in the split. Kelly strikeout so few hitters that he can’t be trusted. Some of the Mets hitters should be able to do some damage tonight.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Wilmer Flores, Michael Conforto

Secondary Options – Austin Jackson, Amed Rosario

Mets Probable Starter – Noah Syndergaard, RHP 

3.40 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 24.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .276 average, .301 wOBA, 22.8 K rate, 26.3 fly ball rate and 21.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .247 average, .292 wOBA, 26.5 K rate, 25.6 fly ball rate and 20.6 hard hit rate

If Noah Syndergaard can’t get it done tonight, I don’t think you can play him again this season. The Giants shut down Buster Posey for the season and will likely trade Andrew McCutchen within the next few days, possibly before tonight. Even with those hitters, the Giants have been very poor against righties on the road this season. They rank in the bottom 10 in average, OPS, OBP, slugging, wOBA and wRC+ to go along with the seventh highest strikeout rate in the majors. Thor is under $10,000 on FanDuel and it seems like a good night to use him.

Giants Hitters to Target

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Home Run Pick – Austin Jackson

DFS MLB – Padres at Rockies

Padres Probable Starter – Jacob Nix, RHP 

6.75 ERA, 1.95 WHIP and 14.7 strikeout rate(6.2 IP)

I’m not even going to list the splits here for Nix since we’re under double-digit innings but he has shown he’s worse against lefties early on. He’s also been leaning on his four seamer over 60 percent of the time to each side of the plate. No less than six Rockies hitters have an ISO of at least .220 versus that pitch including David Dahl and Charlie Blackmon.

Dahl might be my favorite play since he’s the cheapest lefty in the Rockies outfield and holds the team lead in OPS, ISO and wOBA in his 107 at-bats this season. Coors was mostly a let down yesterday but it really shouldn’t be the case tonight. You can make a strong case to have your outfield be made up of Dahl, Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – David Dahl, Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez

Secondary Options – Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Ian Desmond

Rockies Probable Starter – Jon Gray, RHP 

4.76 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 27.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .250 average, .327 wOBA, 29.8 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 39.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .260 average, .300 wOBA, 25.0 K rate, 25.0 fly ball rate and 31.9 hard hit rate

As much as I think Syndergaard is a good play tonight, I’ll almost surely use Gray a lot more and pocket the $1,200. I don’t care that this game is in Coors Field because Gray is riding the Regression Express, and he’s not going the direction a certain lefty for the Cubs is going. Gray has been incredibly unlucky this year and his xFIP and FIP at home is 2.78 and 3.11.

The strikeouts are in line with his seasonal numbers and I’m not going to the Padres tonight. In his three starts versus the Padres this season, Gray has put up a 61, 52 and 12. The low score came directly after the 52 start and we talk often about hitters having the advantage in that spot. Gray should be able to take advantage of the league leading strikeout rate for the Padres.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Home Run Pick – David Dahl

DFS MLB – Angels at Diamondbacks

Angels Probable Starter – Odrisamer Despaigne, RHP 

6.29 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 19.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .333 average, .356 wOBA, 16.0 K rate, 29.7 fly ball rate and 37.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .255 average, .305 wOBA, 21.7 K rate, 19.5 fly ball rate and 26.2 hard hit rate

The metrics look pretty awful for Despaigne and they are but his FIP and xFIP are very intriguing. It looks like we want lefties but those metrics are far below the ERA at 2.95 and 4.01 on the road. I’m not proclaiming you use him as a pitching option but maybe we don’t go as crazy with the Diamondbacks as I thought. David Peralta paid off last night and he could well do it again but $4,000 is starting to get steep for him, even with his .268 ISO and .406 wOBA against righties. The only other hitter that I would look at is Eduardo Escobar but he’s not my favorite play on the slate.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – David Peralta

Secondary Options – Eduardo Escobar, Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Clay Buchholz, RHP 

2.47 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 20.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .192 average, .244 wOBA, 19.2 K rate, 36.4 fly ball rate and 29.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .256 average, .315 wOBA, 22.2 K rate, 40.0 fly ball rate and 43.8 hard hit rate

I’m likely still siding with Jon Gray or Noah Syndergaard but it’s not a terrible idea to use Buchholz tonight. The Angels are missing Justin Upton and Mike Trout, both on the DL. Shohei Ohtani and Kole Calhoun are the best options they have left but Buchholz has been nasty against lefty hitters this season.

Taylor Ward just got called up recently but possesses a .364 ISO in very limited sample size so that’s nothing more than a GPP play. He also comes with a strikeout rate over 30 percent. I can’t fully figure out how he’s doing it but Buchholz has been solid to very good so far in 2018. I’m not terribly excited for the Angels tonight.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Shohei Ohtani, Kole Calhoun, Taylor Ward

Home Run Pick – Kole Calhoun

DENVER, CO – AUGUST 11: Yasiel Puig #66 of the Los Angeles Dodgers flips his bat on a single in the seventh inning at Coors Field on August 11, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Joe Mahoney/Getty Images)

DFS MLB – Cardinals at Dodgers

Cardinals Probable Starter – Jack Flaherty, RHP 

3.05 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 30.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .186 average, .264 wOBA, 26.6 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 31.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .214 average, .299 wOBA, 33.9 K rate, 37.7 fly ball rate and 34.9 hard hit rate

This will heart Brian’s heart but I think a pitcher against the Dodgers might actually be a pretty good GPP play tonight. It kind of depends on the Dodgers lineup shakes out. Flaherty has surrendered a 1.64 HR/9 to righty hitters so if the Dodgers only has three or four righties, he might be able to survive thanks to his monster K rate.

Manny Machado and Yasiel Puig look the best versus the slider, which makes up 37 percent of his pitches to righty hitters. Puig is at a .267 ISO and Machado sits way up there at .313. The Dodgers are a dangerous lineup no matter what but they come through very small last night. Flaherty is a far more talented pitcher and it will be interesting to see how this one turns out.

Dodgers Hitters to target 

Elite Options –Manny Machado, Yasiel Puig

Secondary Options – Joc Pederson, Justin Turner

Dodgers Probable Starter – Walker Buehler, RHP 

3.19 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 26.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .229 average, .285 wOBA, 26.2 K rate, 33.0 fly ball rate and 32.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .202 average, .257 wOBA, 26.7 K rate, 30.9 fly ball rate and 35.8 hard hit rate

Buehler comes into this game in excellent form, exceeding 40 points in each of his last four starts. He’s also been dominant at home and the only two hitters you really have to worry about is Matt Carpenter and Matt Adams, if he makes it there on time. Adams got traded yesterday and Carpenter got the day off so these guys should be ready to go.

Buehler is giving up a 1.64 HR/9 at home to lefties so Carpenter is in a great spot. Almost the whole Cards lineup is made up of righties so this spot could be a great one for Buehler. Thats’s where I would lean and if you’re not playing the .313 ISO and .405 soba for Carpenter, I think you can mostly leave it alone.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Options – Matt Adams(if active)

Home Run Pick – Matt Carpenter

DFS MLB – Sample FanDuel Lineup

P – Jon Gray 

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C/1B – Yan Gomes 

2B- Javier Baez

3B – David Bote

SS – Jose Iglesias

OF – David Dahl, Charlie Blackmon, Nicholas Castellanos 

Utility – Wilmer Flores 

I’m liking the way this one came together. Feeling pretty confident about Gray helps afford a bunch of other things, like his teammates in the outfield. We take a one-off in Gomes and Flores who both have some serious upside and then the last four spots are built around the Detroit and Chicago game. I’m a little happier to do that type of roster on a smaller slate like 10 games as opposed to 15.

Pitching to Consider 

High End – Noah Syndergaard, Carlos Carrasco, Cards/Dodgers pitchers(GPP)

Mid-Range – Jon Gray, Zach Eflin, Clay Buchholz

Punt – Jakob Junis

Stacks to Consider – Colorado Rockies, Tigers/Cubs game stack, New York Yankees, Cleveland Indians

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.