MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Wednesday August 22
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
It is always interesting to look back on slates the next day to see not only how plays worked out but where ownership ended up going. As I mentioned, my goal was to go with both stud arms on this slate with Blake Snell and Patrick Corbin and I felt like that would be a relatively contrarian build as most dropped down for a cheaper SP2. Well, Snell ended up as the chalk SP1 at over 30% ownership which left Corbin at less than 5% ownership in tournaments – meanwhile guys like Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Kopech were 22-23% owned and both managed only 10 fantasy points each, which ended up being bad chalk to eat. When you layer on that most of the more popular offenses were largely ineffective, the Snell/Corbin combination with bats like Evan Longoria (21 FPTS) ended up being a nice core that helped push us well over the cash line when mixed with other cheap-one off plays like Justin Smoak and Franmil Reyes.
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Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Early Slate Overview:
We have a nice little four game early slate on FantasyDraft today with some solid contest selection so this looks like a nice mini-slate to get some day time MLB DFS action on this Wednesday.
The pitching on this slate boils down very simply to me – as Charlie Morton and Freddy Peralta are the duo I will likely ride with in most contests as these are the two best strikeout arms on the slate, each sporting 30% K rate in 2018. Sorting through the rest of the options you have a ton of lower strikeout arms with no other pitcher over 22% so this is a case where I simply play for the K’s on a site like FantasyDraft where the strikeout upside is the most critical metric when selecting your arms.
Peralta may end up being the play on one pitcher sites as he not only has the high K upside but as a -230 home favorite and considering the Reds have the lowest run total on the board at 3.4 which is a full run lower than their season average, this looks like a great run prevention with K upside to boot. With Joey Votto out of the line-up, there is a bit of added K boost in this Reds line-up as five of the projected eight batters have a 20% or higher K rate against right-handed pitching this season so locking in Peralta and Morton on two pitcher sites, seems like the path to greatest upside.
From a hitting perspective there are two key offenses I want to focus on – the Brewers and A’s as they take on Robert Stephenson and Mike Minor, arguably the two worst arms on this slate going against two of the highest upside DFS offenses.
The Oakland A’s get the best match-up against LHP Mike Minor and his .220 ISO and near 40% hard contact rate to hitters from both sides of the plate. Khris Davis is the premier bat on the early slate and although he is pricey at over $10K on FantasyDraft, you can offset his salary by using some of the cheaper A’s bats that are priced at relatively discount rates considering the opponent. Matt Chapman ($8.2K) and Stephen Piscotty ($7.5K) have .190 ISO marks against left-handed pitching this season with Chad Pinder ($6.6K) not far behind at .175 and do not overlook the red hot Ramon Laureano ($6.4K) who followed his two home run night on Monday with a 2 hit, 1 steal (13 fpt) outing on Tuesday night.
The Brewers will take on Robert Stephenson, the Reds right-hander who has pitched only 5.2 innings in 2018, with 9 walks and 5 ER but looking back to 2017 this was an arm with a near 5 ERA and a 1.3 HR/9 rate who gave up well over a 40% HC rate to lefties. The Brewers are a boom or bust offense that on this slate feels like a must investment – at least partially – as six of the eight batters in the projected line-up have a .200+ ISO mark against RHP this season.
Go ahead and pick from Eric Thames, Jesus Aguilar, Mike Moustakas, Jonathan Schoop, Travis Shaw and Christian Yelich – any and all of these big bats is viable today in Milwaukee and on short slates like this, having that one home run can make all the difference in setting the cash line so I want to mix and match my exposure to the power bats in this line-up.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Early Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
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SP: Charlie Morton ($19.6K)
SP: Freddy Peralta ($14.8K)
IF: Matt Chapman ($8.2K)
IF: Jesus Aguilar ($9.7K)
IF: Travis Shaw ($9.3K)
OF: Khris Davis ($10.3K)
OF: Chad Pinder ($6.6K)
OF: Ramon Laureano ($6.4K)
UTIL: Mike Moustakas ($8.3K)
UTIL: Logan Forsythe ($6.4K)
Slate Overview: Strikeouts and home-runs – that is what this early slate boils down to for me. Morton and Peralta are the two highest K upside arms and their price points are reasonable enough where you can load up on the two best offenses in my opinion with the A’s and Brewers. Vegas seems to agree as these two teams have the two highest run totals, both over 5, so this build is likely not going to be contrarian but this is a case where I am fine eating the chalk and letting others make the mistake.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Pitching:
Much like the early slate, the Main Slate pitching is all about chasing upside with strikeouts and there are a ton on this slate to be had with power arms like Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler at the top but the fact I can pivot down from them and get salary savings in a better match-up with Noah Syndergaard ($19.9K) at home against the Giants is where my SP1 decision will start.
Thor has not been as dominant this season with only a 24.5% K rate which is down from his 29.3% rate over the 2016-2017 season which has brought his price down and I think this is the spot where you jump on. We talked about this with Zack Wheeler on Monday, the Giants are one of the worst offenses in baseball over the last 2-3 weeks and Thor is coming off back to back games where he went for over 100 pitches so there is depth with Syndergaard that you are not necessarily getting with Flaherty and Buehler at the top of the pricing tiers today.
Jon Gray ($15.3K) has been a man on a mission since his return to the big leagues in July where over the last 6 starts he has registered a 24% K rate with a massive 14% swinging strike rate. Gray has put up 23 or more fantasy points in five of those six outings (only one he fell short was against the Dodgers offense) and now gets to face a Padres team with a league leading 25.8% K rate against RHP this season.
Gray faced San Diego once this season, at home, and went for 6 scoreless innings, 11 K’s and 37 fantasy points and that is the kind of upside you are getting with him at this price point. Think of it this way, if this game was in San Diego in Petco Park, Gray would be price near the top of this slate and you would likely not think twice about paying it – the Coors Field discount down to $15K makes this a point per dollar risk worth taking in my opinion.
MLB DFS – Top Hitting Spots:
Looking at this slate, the obvious spots for offense are going to be the Rockies with a 6+ run total in Coors and likely once again the Cubs against Liriano, and while the Rockies offense has been middle of the pack the last few weeks, there is no team in baseball scoring less runs than the Cubs (a league low 24 runs the last 14 games), so this could be an a night where we pivot off the Vegas chalk and look elsewhere.
There is a ballpark today where the wind is blowing out to Center Field at 9-10 MPH and the home team will be taking on a left-hander that is giving up a ton of hard contact and has a 1.6 HR/9 rate versus right-hander batters on the road – welcome everyone to Jon Lester day at Comerica Park!
Not only is the wind blowing out today but Lester is getting an extreme hitter’s umpire in Alfonso Marquez who in his last three starts with Marquez behind the plate dating back to 2013, Lester has given up 13 ER in only 19 innings of work. The Tigers are not a team we usually look to stack but they have a handful of batters who punish left-handed pitching including Jeimer Candelario ($7.2K) who has a .202 ISO and 42.3% HC rate against southpaws this season while the premier play is Nick Castellanos ($9.2K) who has a .224 ISO and 53% HC rate against LHP this season. Although he has taken a step back this season, James McCann ($5.8K) still has a .200+ ISO mark versus LHP since 2017 and makes for one of the best value plays on this slate. Happy Lester Day folks – stack those Tigers.
Staying true to Picks and Pivots, I am required by law to stack against Jon Lester and also recommend the Dodgers bats. Now the match-up with Jack Flaherty is not one that is going to have me rushing to roster the high-priced batters but there is a ton of value in the mid-range for the Dodgers bats here with guys like Joc Pederson ($7.5K) and Yasmani Grandal ($7.3K) priced way down for this match-up. Pederson and Grandal are sporting .298 and .261 ISO marks against RHP this season and when you consider Flaherty’s pitch types this is a nice spot for the Dodgers lefties.
Flaherty throws a 93 MPH fastball nearly 43% of the time versus lefties – a pitch that Grandal (.345 ISO), Joc (.385 ISO) and Cody Bellinger (.389 ISO) all hammer that pitch and if he pivots to his slider which he throws 23% of the time to lefties guys like Joc and Pederson still hammer that pitch for a .220+ ISO mark so using the Dodgers lefties in a mini-stack could be interesting.
Everyone was on the Giancarlo Stanton revenge narrative last night heading back to Miami for the first time and with a rather pedestrian 2 for 6 night, my hope is people jump off because this spot against Trevor Richards looks like one we can attack. Richards is a reverse splits righty, giving up a .203 ISO and 48% HC rate to RHB in 2018 which makes Stanton one of my favorite one-off plays on the night.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
More from FanSided
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- Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
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SP: Noah Syndergaard ($19.9K)
SP: Jon Gray ($15.3K)
IF: Jeimer Candelario ($7.2K)
IF: Cody Bellinger ($8.9K)
IF: Yasmani Grandal ($7.3K)
OF: Nick Castellanos ($9.2K)
OF: Joc Pederson ($7.5K)
OF: Giancarlo Stanton ($10K)
UTIL: Aaron Hicks ($8.7K)
UTIL: James McCann ($5.8K)
Slate Overview: Even though we have some high-powered offenses with big totals (Rockies, Arizona, Cubs), this may be another night where we play the variance and let others chase the Vegas totals. There is a ton of high K pitching options on this slate so I would make sure your arms have that upside with any of the Flaherty, Buehler, Thor, Gray combo being where you can focus. Enjoy these two slates today and we will see you back here on Thursday.
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Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!