This season is over for the Washington Nationals, but what about the future?
With MLB’s final trade deadline of the year fast approaching, the Washington Nationals officially waved the white flag on a massively disappointing 2018 season by placing a handful of stars on revocable waivers. Though Bryce Harper was actually claimed by the Los Angeles, the only pending free agent moving so far is second baseman Daniel Murphy, who was dealt to the Chicago Cubs. Barring a total collapse by the Atlanta Braves or Philadelphia Phillies, Harper’s tenure in D.C. will end without winning a single playoff series.
Despite the failures of this season and the obvious give-up from management, the Nationals championship window is still very much open.
With a run differential of +65, the .500 Nationals have significantly underperformed their expected record. It’s hard to pin the blame on any one player or decision. Much like the team’s down year in 2015, this campaign has been marred by injuries, slumping hitters in key positions and a volatile bullpen. The 2018 season certainly plays out much differently for the Nats if Murphy, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Eaton and Stephen Strasburg don’t spend half the year on the DL or Harper doesn’t hit .200 from the end of April until the middle of July.
As hard as it must be for Nationals fans to stomach losing Harper without even sniffing the World Series, things are not as bleak as they seem in the face of seeing a franchise icon start looking for a new home. It is still easy to see a path back to the playoffs for this team in 2019 and beyond.
Young phenom Juan Soto has been better in his age-19 season than Harper was as a rookie. Soto’s OPS+ of 143 is higher than any mark Harper posted until his age-22 season. Another stud outfielder will be making his way up from the minors next season. Victor Robles, a 21-year-old, was thought of more highly than Soto entering the year but suffered a freak injury in the early going. He is the number-five overall prospect in baseball and is a .300/.392/.456 in the minor leagues. Robles is a true five-tool prospect with blazing speed and a power stroke that will only continue to improve as he fills out.
Even with Harper out of the equation, the Nationals still figure to have a lineup next season that will put up runs in bunches. The only true weakness will once again be at catcher, but there are some solid options hitting free agency. A big key will be finding a way to keep first baseman Ryan Zimmerman healthy. The 33-year-old has hit .319/.405/.681 with six home runs and 21 RBI in 22 games since coming off the DL at the end of July. Zimmerman has been beset by nagging injuries since 2014, but has been very productive when he has actually been able to string together a few months of health.
Having spent nearly $400 million on Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, the Nationals were obviously hoping for much more from their rotation this season. Instead, Strasburg has spent more time than not on the disabled list and Jeremy Hellickson, Jefry Rodriguez, Erick Fedde and Tommy Milone have been pressed into service. The bullpen has been an even bigger issue and will once again need to be overhauled over the winter. It goes without saying that trading for Jonathan Papelbon and demoting Drew Storen tore apart the space-time continuum for Nationals relievers.
With big money coming off the books this winter, the Nationals will be positioned well to attack the offseason. Funding will not be secured to retain Harper, but ownership will remain aggressive to fill out the roster from a deep free-agent class. Throw in continued maturation and development from Soto and shortstop Trea Turner and the underrated production of Anthony Rendon, and the Nationals offense really should not skip a beat. Scherzer remains the poster child for how to successfully manage a pitcher’s innings early in his career for maximum sustainability and should keep a stranglehold on his title as best pitcher in the National League. Even a little bit of health from Strasburg will be more than enough to get the rotation back on track.
The most difficult question to answer is whether or not the Phillies and Braves are truly for real and ready to bury the Nationals for good. Both teams are locked and loaded with young talent and look ready to spend big to push themselves over the top. Philadelphia, in particular, figures to make a very aggressive push to sign either Harper or Manny Machado. Still, nothing either team has done this year makes them look like a budding dynasty on par with the Chicago Cubs or Houston Astros. Right now, the Braves look much more like a finished product with their strong lineup and stable of young, power arms, but the bottom-feeding New York Mets and Miami Marlins will ensure there are plenty of easy games for the Nationals going forward.
With a run of winning seasons stretching back to 2012, the Nationals might look tapped out, but they have an ownership group willing to spend whatever it takes to win at the MLB level while never neglecting the farm system. That is what separates them from a team like the Baltimore Orioles, who are now starting at a length rebuild after missing out on their own championship window. Thanks to the way they have been constructed, the Nationals have put themselves on par with the likes of the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers, with a championship window that will never shut all the way.