NFL DraftKings – An Early Look at Week 1
By Ben McDaniel
September 9th is rapidly approaching, and with it, the first week of regular season NFL DFS action! Week 1 player pricing is always the most interesting due to the fact that DraftKings sets the salaries weeks before the games will be played. I’ll have much more detailed analysis once we’re closer to kickoff. Until then, thanks for reading, NFL DraftKings – An Early Look at Week 1! Be sure to follow me on Twitter @BenMcD_Sports for more DFS analysis!
NFL DraftKings: Quarterbacks for Week 1
It shouldn’t come as a shock that Tom Brady ($7,200) is the most expensive NFL DraftKings QB for week 1. The most popular Patriots stacks will almost assuredly include Hogan or Gronk, but I wouldn’t be opposed to rolling out a lineup with a Tom Brady/James White combo. Of the other high-priced quarterbacks, DeShaun Watson ($6,700) seems like a lock to produce, while trying to keep pace with the high-powered New England offense. The 5th highest priced QB is Ben Roethlisberger, but even in a match-up against Cleveland, Big Ben’s Home/Away splits are enough to scare me off of the Steelers QB.
After finishing first in scoring among QBs, Russell Wilson ($6,200) seems a little cheap. In fact, in 2017 he was only priced that low once, and in that game at Jacksonville, Wilson finished with 24.8 points. He was practically matchup proof last year, and due to his rushing totals, you don’t necessarily have to worry about stacking him with a Seahawks WR. One QB I’ll probably be avoiding is Andrew Luck ($6,200). I can’t blame him for being rusty, he hasn’t played a regular season game since Joe Namath was still in the league. Even so, I need to see more production on the field before I trust him in a DFS lineup.
If you want to go cheap at the QB position, consider Case Keenum ($5,100). Does that matchup with Seattle scare you? Let me remind you that Kam Chancelor, Richard Sherman, Michael Bennett, and Sheldon Richardson are gone from the Emerald City. Plus, who knows what will be going on with Earl Thomas. Keenum is the 5th cheapest QB on the slate, but with weapons like Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, he should have no problem returning value. Plus, he allows you to spend big at other positions. He’s currently my favorite GPP QB option for week 1.
NFL DraftKings: Running Backs for Week 1
Le’Veon Bell ($9,400) being the highest priced running back on the slate doesn’t surprise me. What does surprise me, is that he’s $600 more expensive than David Johnson ($8,800). Bell started slow last year after missing the offseason, and I expect him to start slow again. I won’t be spending up for him in week 1. Due to Mark Ingram‘s suspension, Alvin Kamara ($8,500) should be a pretty popular play, and in a home game against one of the league’s worst rushing defenses from last year (Tampa Bay), he has a good chance to hit value based on volume alone.
Ezekiel Elliott ($7,700) seems a little underpriced. He’s a virtual lock for 20+ carries and there’s been enough chatter about him being more involved in the passing game, that I feel he should be closer to the top-tier with Bell, Johnson, and Kamara. Christian McCaffery ($6,400) really let me down by looking like such a stud in the preseason. I was hoping he’d go under the radar and be overlooked in week 1 contests. With DraftKings’ PPR scoring format, McCaffery is always a safe play with a very high ceiling. I could see Joe Mixon ($6,100) being highly owned with so many questions surrounding the other running backs around his price point – Dalvin Cook ($6,200), LeSean McCoy ($6,000), Kenyan Drake ($5,900), and Jerrick McKinnon ($5,800). If the HOU @ NE game is a shootout like everyone predicts, Lamar Miller ($5,200) could end up being a great value. One of the greatest proofs that DraftKings set their prices early in preseason is that Ronald Jones II ($4,900) is $800 more expensive than Peyton Barber ($4,100).
With all the negativity swirling around Jones, expect Barber to be a very popular play. At that price, he seems like a safe bet to hit value. Carlos Hyde ($4,500) seems priced as though he’ll be splitting carries with Nick Chubb. However, after a couple of preseason games, it sure doesn’t look that way. After two preseason games, Chubb has yet to take a snap with the first team. Duke Johnson Jr. ($4,700) will get his touches, but as long as Hyde has a stranglehold on the early down work, I’m intrigued with him at that salary. SEA @ DEN gives us two running backs both priced at $4,500 who could easily exceed value (Chris Carson and Royce Freeman). James White ($4,000) is criminally underpriced and his ownership will reflect it.
NFL DraftKings: Wide Receivers for Week 1
Antonio Brown ($8,600), DeAndre Hopkins ($8,300), Michael Thomas ($7,800), Keenan Allen ($7,500), and A.J. Green ($7,300) are the 5 highest priced WRs in week 1. Odell Beckham Jr. ($7,000) is usually a mainstay in that top group, but his salary is deflated due to a match-up with Jacksonville. I’m not saying OBJ is a safe play by any means, but in last year’s playoff match-up, Antonio Brown was able to torch the Jaguars defense for 7 catches, 132 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Still, odds are that ODB has a quiet week before returning to the top-tier in pricing in week 2.
Mike Evans ($6,700) might go under the radar due to Winston’s suspension. But in 3 games with Fitzpatrick last year, Evans put up game totals of 3/95/1, 5/92/0, and 6/78/0. Fitzpatrick also targeted him an average of 10 times per game. There’s potential there. The hype surrounding Stefon Diggs ($6,300) has risen, and due to being $600 cheaper, should be a much more popular play than fellow Vikings WR, Adam Thielen ($6,900). Chris Hogan ($6,100) seems like a safe play. He’ll be a popular stack alongside Brady. With Case Keenum being one of my favorite options at QB, both of the top Broncos wide receivers, Demaryius Thomas ($5,700) and Emmanuel Sanders ($5,000) seem like good options against a compromised Seattle defense.
Pierre Garcon ($4,900) and especially Marquise Goodwin ($4,600) will benefit from having Jimmy G under center in San Francisco this year, but I don’t trust any 49ers offensive player in week 1 against a stout Vikings defense. Some of the best low-priced WR options look to be MIke Williams ($3,900), John Brown ($3,700), Phillip Dorsett ($3,700), and Taywan Taylor ($3,600). Bruce Ellington ($3,400) appears to have the #3 job in Houston locked down and could be a great option in a high scoring affair with New England.
NFL DraftKings: Tight Ends
Rob Gronkowski ($6,900) is always a solid play despite the high salary. Travis Kelce ($6,400) is the only other tight end in the same salary stratosphere as Gronk. As long as Jordan Reed ($4,000) is healthy, he’s a good option. Alex Smith has spent a few years feeding Kelce the ball, so we know he likes to look for his tight end. Of course, if someone even looks at Jordan Reed the wrong way, he might be out 4-6 weeks.
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Jack Doyle ($3,600) would probably cost more if the prices were set closer to week 1. It was assumed that Ebron would syphon enough targets to hurt his value, but if preseason is any indication, Doyle will continue to be a stud in the Colts offense. Another factor making Doyle a solid play is that Cincinnati’s defense was one of the worst in defending the tight end position last year. Speaking of defenses who struggled mightily against tight ends, the Giants and the Browns will look to improve against Austin Sefarian-Jenkins ($3,200) and Vance McDonald ($3,200). Both guys should be fairly popular as DFS players try to exploit those matchups. One thing to keep an eye on – if Delanie Walker‘s injury carries over into week 1, Jonnu Smith ($2,800) will be one of the top tight end plays of the week.
NFL DraftKings: Defense/Special Teams
The Baltimore Ravens ($3,800) were priced BEFORE it looked like Bills rookie QB, Josh Allen would be getting the start on the road at BAL in week 1. Had Allen already been named the starter, the Ravens might have set a record for NFL DraftKings DST salary. I don’t usually pay up at DST, but this might be a week I consider it. Other high-priced teams are the ones you’d expect – the Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,700), New Orleans Saints ($3,600), Minnesota Vikings ($3,500), and the Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,400). One of the mid-tier DST that catches my eye is the Tennessee Titans ($2,900).
The Titans D finished with the 5th most sacks in the NFL last season and if they can put pressure on Ryan Tannehill, should be able to generate a few turnovers in week 1. There’s also the fact that Tannehill should be rusty after missing all of last year with a torn ACL. For a bonus, Adoree Jackson is one of the most explosive returners in the league, and after failing to score a special teams TD last year, is overdue. As for low salary options, I like the New York Giants against the Jaguars. I the Giants D was terrible last year, but that should keep ownership low. You can never count out the possibility that Blake Bortles will go full Delhomme and throws 5 picks.
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