MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Thursday August 23
Welcome to the Thursday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Well the one thing I can say about Wednesday’s MLB DFS slates were that we hit on our pitching as Freddy Peralta, Noah Syndergaard and Jon Gray all had solid outings but for the most part our bats let us down in a big way including the A’s and Brewers on the Early Slate and the Jon Lester troll game was strong on the Main Slate for the latest chapter in our lopsided rivalry.
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Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Early Slate Overview:
For the second straight day we have a nice early slate with 5 games to choose from and kudos to FantasyDraft for putting out some solid contests for this early slate as we have not had many of these split slate weekdays since earlier in the MLB season.
When you open this early slate you are going to notice one thing – HOLY ACES! Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola with Madison Bumgarner and David Price directly behind them. Not only are our pitching options loaded but we also have a game in Coors Field so this is going to be an important game theory slate in my opinion if you choose to play it.
I think the logical build for many will be to go high/low at pitcher so they still have salary for bats and I could end up seeing LHP Kyle Freeland gaining traction as a popular SP2 on this slate after a string of strong home outing, where has given up 2 or fewer ER in each of his last 6 starts in Coors Field and now add on that the Padres will likely be without Wil Myers, Christian Villaneuva and possibly Hunter Renfroe which are the most potent bats that scare you in the middle of that Padres order.
So on this slate I think it is important to try to pivot off the obvious build and with that in mind, I set out to build a roster where I not only lock in one top-tier arm but can I find a way to get in two? Jacob deGrom ($23.1K) at home against the Giants seems like the perfect marriage of elite match-up for both run prevention and K upside and you can pair him with Cy Young runner-up Max Scherzer ($22.4) – sorry Mets fan having to take my shots where I can – for a potent 1-2 punch at pitcher.
At this point in the season you do not need me to tell you that deGrom and Mad Max are elite plays and the thought of pairing them together may seem impossible but the truth is, you are left with $6.8K per player and I believe there is a path to building a line-up focused around arguably the two best pitchers in the National League this season.
So where do we find the value to make it work?
We mentioned the injuries in San Diego right? How does a $6K middle of the order bat with a .324 ISO mark against lefties playing in Coors sound? Come on down Franmil Reyes.
The Indians top of the order may be pricey but after the top 5 the value kicks in with the best play being Brandon Guyer ($5.9K) who has a .253 ISO against southpaws this season.
In the context of this build it is going to be tough to find stacks that work due to the salary constraints but by using cheap one-offs like Reyes and Guyer, it leaves you with $7.1K per batter which is where I turn my attention to a game stack in Detroit between Matt Boyd and James Shields, arguably the two worst (and maybe only bad pitchers) on the entire slate.
In all honesty, I do not think Shields and Boyd are as bad as many in the DFS world believe they are but with so many strong options on the hill today this is really the only place I would entertain stacking and hoping that this is the game where two pitchers that have a near 5 xFIP, have one of their blow-up starts.
Over the last two seasons, James Shields has given up a higher ISO mark (.217) to lefties but his fly ball % and average distance hit is actually higher to righties but in 2018 it has been the lefties with a near 1.4 HR/9 rate that have done the most damage so we can start there. Niko Goodrum ($7.3K) has a .230 ISO mark versus RHP this season with Jeimer Candelario ($7.7K) not far behind at .178 and you can expand the stack to include a cheap OF like Jim Adduci ($6.6K) who has a 42% HC rate against RHP so far in 2018.
On the White Sox side, this line-up with Jose Abreu in it is certainly not as strong but you do have a pair of lefty mashers in Matt Davidson ($8.2K) and Avisail Garcia ($7.3K) who are both sporting .250+ ISO marks on the season against southpaws. The cost of the Tigers/White Sox in general makes them an ideal game stack environment and the added fact that their 9 game total trails Coors Field by only a run and is right there with the Red Sox/Indians, gives you the confidence from Vegas that this will be a high scoring affair.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Early Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
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SP: Jacob deGrom ($23.1K)
SP: Max Scherzer ($22.4K)
IF: Matt Davidson ($8.2K)
IF: Niko Goodrum ($7.3K)
IF: Jeimer Candelario ($7.7K)
OF: Brandon Guyer ($5.9K)
OF: Franmil Reyes ($6K)
OF: Avisail Garcia ($7.3K)
UTIL: Jim Adduci ($6.3K)
UTIL: Kevan Smith ($5.7K)
Slate Overview: As I mentioned, my guess is that most MLB DFS players today will look to go high/low on two pitcher sites opting to take either deGrom OR Max so finding a way to grab both will give you a totally different roster construction. Now it means fading Coors and the Red Sox against Adam Plutko so this could backfire in a big way but for those who go high/low it also means fading either deGrom or Max which could be equally scary. Keep an eye on line-ups as well as day games tend to bring out added value punt plays that will only help us further travel down this two ace roster build.
MLB DFS – Main Slate Overview:
Remember on the Early Slate when we had all those awesome arms? Would be nice if we saved some for this Main Slate – in the words of the great Kevin McCallister when he sees Buzz’s girlfriend in Home Alone – WOOF.
Cole Hamels is the top arm on this slate and will likely be the chalk SP1 at home against a Reds team without Joey Votto and if that scenario plays out, I think fading him and targeting some bats against him is a nice way to get leverage on the field. As good as Hamels as been since joining the Cubs, remember that this is still a pitcher with .200 ISO and 46% hard contact rate to RHB in 2018 and with the wind blowing out at Wrigley at 8-9 MPH, taking a few bats against the highest owned arm on the slate is intriguing.
If you go this route the first go in needs to be Eugenio Suarez with his absurd .337 ISO mark against LHP this season but do not overlook Phillip Ervin ($7.3K) and even Scooter Gennett ($8.3K) who has a .193 ISO and 44% HC rate against lefties this year and will be significantly under-owned in the L/L match-up.
One of the reasons I think you can pivot off Hamels with confidence is that even though we have no slam dunk arms to roster, we have a very solid mid-range with a handful of options. Trevor Cahill has a solid 25% K rate on the season but that number spikes to 27.4% against lefties and he should see a Twins line-up with 4-5 lefties and a projected line-up with a 24% K rate versus lefties so there is upside to be had here.
Also of note, Cahill has some extreme home/road splits this year with a 0.85 ERA and 2.70 xFIP but what really stands out is his 29.7% K rate at home versus only an 18.7% K rate on the road. Cahill has had a string of rough road starts as well with single digit FPTS in each of his last four road starts so there are red flags here if you want to move away from him.
Sean Newcomb has really struggled in his last few starts but it is hard to argue there is a better get right spot than in Miami against the Marlins. The last time Newcomb went to Miami, he went for 20+ FPTS on the back of 6 innings, 5 K’s and 1 ER and has gone for 20+ FPTS in all three meetings with the Fish so far in 2018.
The most important news really on this slate is that Tyler Glasnow is pitching and it is his birthday – you know I love me some birthday narratives!
Oakland let us down yesterday but on this slate I think we can go right back to them as our top stacking option against Twins RHP Kohl Stewart who is a low K arm (17% at AAA) that scouts have deemed as an “average” major league arm. Stewart has such a small sample size at the ML level , surrendering 6 runs in 7 innings so there are no many splits/metrics to rely on here and instead we can look at the heart of the A’s order which has great numbers versus RHP in 2018 with all of Matt Chapman, Khris Davis, Jed Lowrie and Matt Olson sporting .225+ ISO marks against RHP this season.
MLB DFS Sample Line-Up and Main Slate Overview:
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
More from FanSided
- Shohei Ohtani Rumors: The best trade package from every NL East team
- Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
- USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
- NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
- Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
SP: Trevor Cahill ($17.8K)
SP: Sean Newcomb ($15.1K)
IF: Eugenio Suarez ($9.1K)
IF: Scooter Gennett ($8.3K)
IF: Matt Chapman ($9K)
OF: Khris Davis ($10.6K)
OF: Matt Olson ($8.4K)
OF: Phillip Ervin ($7.3K)
UTIL: Jed Lowrie ($8.9K)
UTIL: $5.5K value punt – ie. LaStella is he cracks line-up or Logan Forsythe
Slate Overview: The pitching on this slate may lack the top-tier arms but I think it is deep enough where you can pivot off the chalk and choose from any of the Cahill, Newcomb or Glasnow options. If Hamels is going to be the chalk than I love the idea of building a Reds mini-stack against him with Suarez as the core key piece as before his trade to the Cubs, Hamels had given up 7 ER in 2 of his last 4 outings in Texas so the blow up potential is certainly there. Enjoy these slates all and we will see you back here on Friday.
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