DraftKings CFB picks August 25: Is Carta-Samuels worth the price?

MIAMI GARDENS, FL – JANUARY 05: A logo is painted in the endzone by a worker during Media Day ahead of the Discover BCS National Championship at Sun Life Stadium on January 5, 2013 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings CFB picks August 25: Is Carta-Samuels worth the price?

DraftKings is back to thumbing their nose at the NCAA, daring them to try and shut the DFS giant out of the college game once again now that sports gambling is legal. DraftKings voluntarily ceased offering DFS game for NCAA football and basketball back in 2015. Now that daily fantasy is booming again, DraftKings brought it back. We don’t know how long this will last, so enjoy it while you can!

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We have three games offered on the Saturday slate on DraftKings. Two of them are FBS vs. FBS games that will score normally. The other one offered is Rice vs. Prairie View A&M. How do we handle this? Let’s dive right in!

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HOUSTON, TX – SEPTEMBER 23: Jackson Tyner #14 of the Rice Owls looks to pass under pressure by Jordan Guest #57 of the FIU Golden Panthers in the first quarter at Rice Stadium on September 23, 2017 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

K. J. Carta-Samuels ($10,800): Quarterbacks can sure rack up a lot of points, and with the addition of the super flex position, you can use two. If you can find the cash, that is. It’s going to be difficult on a small slate like this to cram two quarterbacks in there though. However, this is a great place for Carta-Samuels to open the year. Hawaii’s defense, if you can call it that, was pretty bad last year, especially in the secondary. Michael Gallup is gone, but Carta-Samuels still has some pretty good receivers out there. This is a great opportunity for the Rams to get some playing time together before the clash with the Ralphies next week.

Cole McDonald ($9,000): There is no official word on whether McDonald has actually won the starting job or not. For that reason, I generally think that both quarterbacks will see field time. McDonald looks like the better bet as a dual threat, but the Colorado State defense is pretty good. I’m guessing McDonald starts, but this will likely be an open competition until someone runs off with the job. Are you willing to spend this much on that uncertainty? McDonald did run for 138 yards in just 16 carries last year.

Middle Tier:

Chevan Cordeiro ($8,100): The only certain thing seems that Cordeiro will see some meaningful time on the field. Jeremy Moussa may as well. For that reason, I don’t really like any Hawaii quarterbacks. If you are going to go this much on a quarterback, find the extra cash for Carta-Samuels. The job is unquestioningly his, at least for this week.

Matt Romero ($7,500): Romero won the open competition during camp against Nick Jeanty, who saw some field time last year. The difference in price between these two is only $400, so you know that Romero’s hold is uncertain. That said, I only see Romero being pulled if this game gets out of hand. This is a pretty good price for a starter. Wyoming’s defense, while solid, is not great.

Jackson Tyner ($7,000): Tyner was the starter for most of last year, but he didn’t win the job outright from Shawn Stankavage. Both quarterbacks are going to see time in this game, but the staff hasn’t said how much each will get. With Tyner being the incumbent, I think he sees more time. With DraftKings not docking points for 1-AA opponents this year, there is serious value potential in this one.

Bargain Shoppers:

Shawn Stankavage ($6,300): Stankavage played well enough to guarantee himself some playing time. Even if he only plays in garbage time, that is going to be most of the second half. This is a guaranteed blowout, so Stankavage has ample upside as well. I’m not opposed to play both Rice quarterbacks.

Tyler Vander Waal ($6,100): Vander Waal is the latest protege of QB whisperer Craig Bohl. Just remember that Josh Allen didn’t have that great of a year last year, and he was a top ten pick in the NFL draft. Just because he’s amazing doesn’t mean the stats will be. Vander Waal doesn’t have a lot around him, especially with C.J. Johnson out. I do like him at this price, but the Aggies defense is pretty solid. However, taking a risk at $6,100 is easier to justify when pretty much everything is a crapshoot here.

STATESBORO, GA – OCTOBER 14: Running back Jason Huntley #1 of the New Mexico State Aggies pulls in a reception against the Georgia Southern Eagles at Paulson Stadium on October 14, 2017 in Statesboro, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Bennett/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:
Jason Huntley ($8,200): Huntley ran well as Larry Rose III’s backup last year. Of course, there weren’t a lot of carries to go around. Rose was the best back the Aggies have had in decades. Can Huntley pick up where he left off? Wyoming was in the top half of rush defense last year, but that number can be deceiving. As with most of the college game, passing is king. The Aggies are one of the few and the proud that still run first. With the QB position kind of in flux, expect a healthy dose of Huntley this week.

Izzy Matthews ($7,200): The Rams have not commented as to why Rashad Boddie is not listed on the depth chart this week, but it is assumed that Matthews will shoulder the load in the backfield with Boddie and Marvin Kinsey out. This could be a great place to use Matthews. Hawaii’s rush defense was worse than about 150 1-AA teams as well! Matthews can really gouge this defense, so the upside is very real unless Boddie gets reinstated by tonight.

Middle Tier:

Emmanuel Esukpa ($6,900): Esukpa has ascended to the top of the depth chart since Nathan Ellerbe is out for the first week. With Ellerbe out, Esukpa will see a boatload of carries. The Owls aren’t going to be worried about running Esukpa out of gas since this could be his only start of the season. I’m riding Esukpa here against Prairie View. Rice likely will too.

Nico Evans ($6,000): 2017 leading rusher Trey Woods is still on the team…..as a defensive end. That opens up the backfield job for Evans, who was used pretty sparingly last year. The Aggies were better against the pass than the run last year, so I can see the upside for Evans here. The problem is that we really don’t know that he can handle the full load. The Cowboys are going to run more than usual to take the pressure off of a redshirt freshman quarterback, so the potential is here at a reasonable price.

Bargain Shoppers:

Fred Holly III ($5,800): Hawaii is moving back to a run and shoot offense, so there is potential for the running backs in this lineup. Hawaii didn’t do a lot of running last year anyway, but their backs weren’t much of a factor in the offense. That could change this year, and Holly would be one of the main benefactors of this. Of course, in week 1 there is risk, but Holly looks to be the one getting the bulk of the touches out of the backfield.

Dayton Furuta ($3,000): Furuta is the minimum, and is a superb way to cram two quarterbacks into your lineup. While Holly has won the job and is listed as a starter, the coaching staff has hinted at a committee approach early on. Whenever you have a guy at the minimum that is guaranteed some time on the field, you have to take notice. Furuta will probably be chalk, but I’m willing to take it so I can separate elsewhere.

SAN DIEGO, CA – NOVEMBER 05: John Ursua #45 of the Hawaii Rainbows cannot control possesion in the second half as Damontae Kazee #23 of the San Diego State Aztecs prepares to intercept the ball in Qualcomm Stadium on November 5, 2016 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Kent Horner/Getty Images) /

Top Tier:

John Ursua ($10,300): Before Ursua tore his ACL last year, he racked up 667 yards and five touchdowns in six games. I’ll take those odds! However, the instability at quarterback has been not wanting to pay this. Ursua is the most talented receiver out there on this slate, but if McDonald is going to take off and run at least a third of the time, it takes a pretty big chunk out of his value. On talent alone though, Ursua is well worth it.

Olabisi Johnson ($8,700): Johnson was the second leading receiver after Michael Gallup last year. Carta-Samuels seems to have an arm that is as good or better than Nick Stevens, so Johnson is expected to make a big leap this year. He should in game 1 against a terrible Hawaii defense.

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Middle Tier:

Austin Conway ($7,000): Conway may have been Wyoming’s best receiver down the stretch last year, and should be a great target for a freshman quarterback. Wyoming is going to throw the ball at least as much as they did last year, so this price for the number one receiver seems very reasonable. I understand the uncertainty surrounding the quarterback, but I think it’s unfounded. Bohl starts freshmen at quarterback all the time, and they have fared well so far.

Aaron Cephus ($6,800): Cephus was arguably the best player for Rice last year, but that really isn’t saying much. I do have a question about how much Rice will actually throw the ball in this game. At some point, they are mostly going to keep the ball on the ground. The blowout potential and lack of one clear quarterback has me very uncertain about Cephus.

Warren Jackson ($6,400): Jackson is the guy who really made noise for the Rams this spring, even overshadowing Johnson at times. Mike Bobo wont shut up about him, and if we are to believe the coach, Jackson is a value at this price. With a new quarterback under center, it doesn’t matter what Johnson did last year. Carta-Samuels hasn’t really picked a favorite yet, which should mean comparable target numbers for Jackson.

Izaiah Lottie ($6,000): It is essentially an open competition between Muse and Lottie, and while Muse caught more passes last year, Lottie scored twice as many touchdowns. For nearly the same price, I like Lottie. Especially when he is the cheaper of the two. The problem here is that Wyoming had the 21st best pass defense last year, and their defense may be even better this year.

Bargain Shoppers:

James Price ($5,800): Price is the de facto number two receiver with C.J. Jackson out. He was the third leading receiver on the team last year, so I don’t doubt that price can handle the role. I think we will see Wyoming pass quite a bit, so I’m not worried about the volume. There will be enough coming Price’s way for him to hit value tomorrow.

Cedric Byrd ($5,100): Byrd, a JUCO transfer, will start for the Rainbows at one WR slot. He may not see a ton of traffic with Ursua on the field, but Byrd is a clear number two in a run and shoot offense at half the price of a starter. There is clear value for Byrd here.

Austin Fort ($4,200): Fort became a favorite red zone target of Josh Allen towards the end of last year. The senior played in six games and scored four touchdowns down the stretch, including one on the ground. I would expect Fort to be a nice security blanket for a young quarterback. There is pretty good upside here.

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