We are getting dangerously close to kicking off the 2018 NFL season and for many of you this means it is officially: Fantasy Football Draft Season. Whether you’re getting together in person for a live draft with your friends/family back home, or anxiously awaiting your draft lobby to open up online, the end goal is all the same: WIN YOUR LEAGUE.
We’re going to take a look at 7 Fantasy Football Value Picks who are going to contribute to your fantasy championship this coming December.
While we are all looking forward to the “Dress Rehearsal” of the first-stringers in this week’s preseason match-ups to help shine light on some last minute draft targets, let’s talk about some players that are flat-out, flying under fantasy owner’s radars (based on Fantasy Pros Average Draft Position Half Point PPR).
Be sure to follow me on Twitter @sticks022 and @FantasyCPR for more fantasy football information. Thank you for reading and best of luck in your drafts! Let’s get to it.
Value Hunting: 8 Fantasy Football Value Picks
Running Back: Leonard Fournette (ADP 9.5, RB #8)
You’re probably asking yourself, “How does someone being unanimously drafted in the first round have value?” Let’s start with what the basics: as a rookie, Fournette was 1 of only 9 NFL rushers last season to eclipse 1000 yards on the ground (all while only suiting up in 13 games). In addition to the yardage, Fournette had a knack for getting in the end-zone in 2017, tying 3rd for rushing touchdowns with 9.
The thing I love the most about Leonard: he is extremely efficient in the red-zone. In the 13 games Leonard laced em’ up last season, he had a total of 29 rushing attempts inside of 20 yards… he scored on 7 of them. With a year under his belt and a full summer of work in the Jaguars improved offense, it’s a safe bet that efficiency is going to continue, if not increase in 2018.
Yes, he did finish with a sub-par 3.9 yards per carry last season, but we’ve all heard the stories of Fournette’s recent weight-loss. With a leaner frame going into 2018 and the signing of All Pro Guard, Andrew Norwell, I’m putting my chips on the table and going all-in on Fournette’s production on the ground this season.
The only thing fantasy owners look for that Fournette didn’t provide much of in 2017 was fantasy points via the pass. The Jags’ bell-cow ranked 22nd in receptions among running backs. That number is going to improve drastically in 2018. According to an article written by Steven Taranto on CBS Sports, Taranto quoted Jags’ head coach Doug Marrone:
“Leonard is a playmaker, so we’re trying to get him on the field as much as we can and keep pushing him over to third down and things of that nature,” said Marrone.
Assuming Marrone isn’t bluffing and trying to keep TJ Yeldon and Corey Grant’s 3rd down abilities under the radar (lol), the quote above should mean the world to fantasy owners. Fournette is going to stay on the field for the majority of the Jaguars snaps in 2018, and that is what fantasy owners are going to thrive off of.
I have absolutely no problem taking Leonard Fournette early in the first round of 2018 fantasy drafts. I strongly believe he should be drafted immediately after the fan favorites: Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, and Ezekiel Elliot. I got him confidently at RB #4 and would not be surprised if he finishes as a top-2 fantasy running back in 2018.
Fantasy Football Value Picks – Running Back: Carlos Hyde (ADP 66.5, RB #28)
It still seems as if all of the hype in Cleveland’s backfield is going towards Georgia standout, Nick Chubb. I’m not sure why. Carlos Hyde has been nothing worse than an RB2 in fantasy football since 2016. If you look at Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Leaders, you’ll see that Hyde finished as RB #9 last season, and RB #15 the year prior.
You could make the argument that Hyde was a product of a Kyle Shanahan offense and that his production is due to decrease in 2018, and you’re probably right. I’m not saying the former Buckeye great is going to win you your league, but he is being drafted like a borderline RB3 – that is something I have to shake my head at.
Carlos has a 4.2 yards per carry average throughout his career and as we all saw last season, he is relatively comfortable catching the ball out of the backfield. While looking at Fantasy Football Today’s Running Back Stats of 2017, Hyde was right there towards the top of running back receptions tied for 6th with 59 receptions.
Guess who he tied with in receptions… LeSean McCoy. Who was constantly checking down to LeSean McCoy last year…Tyrod Taylor. You can see where I’m going with this. With Tyrod Taylor having a firm hold on the QB1 job in Cleveland heading into the fantasy season, I think things are lining up nicely for Hyde as both a runner and a pass catcher.
I understand the concerns fantasy owners have in regards to Nick Chubb potentially taking over the RB1 duties in Cleveland, nothing is bulletproof in fantasy football. I am going to trust the Cleveland Browns in giving Hyde every opportunity to be a constant contributor to their offense. Would the Browns sign him to a contract worth over $15 Million ($8 million guaranteed) to not play? Highly doubtful.
In a year where fantasy running backs are being drafted at a wild pace, I have no problem if Hyde ends up being your RB2 going into the season. By no means is this a draft strategy I’m implementing in all of my leagues, but if you wish to get some stud WRs in rounds 1-4 to compliment your strong RB1, Carlos Hyde in the middle of round 5 is just fine.
Fantasy Football Value Picks – Wide Receiver: Emmanuel Sanders (ADP 81, WR #34)
Fantasy owners need to be chomping at the bits if Emmanuel Sanders continues to remain un-drafted throughout the first six and a half rounds of drafts. Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Leaders showed Emmanuel Sanders ending the 2017 campaign as WR #61, yikes. I can see why recency bias is not in Emmanuel’s corner. That is simply not going to happen this year.
The quarterback situation in Denver last season was an absolute mess. Sanders would have been better off convincing GM, John Elway to suit up and get under center at Mile High Stadium in 2017. Luckily, with Case Keenum, the days of a revolving door at the QB position are over in Denver.
Keenum is a competent QB, nothing to write home about, but competent nonetheless. Pro Football Reference marked him at #2 for all qualifying QBs in 2017 in completion percentage at 67.6% (only behind future Hall of Famer, Drew Brees). With Denver drafting the talented two-sport athlete from SMU, Courtland Sutton, this should put Emmanuel Sanders back where he is most comfortable: the slot.
Instead of going into the damage Emmanuel Sanders has done in the slot over his professional career, let’s take a minute to focus on Case Keenum’s slot receiver last season: the 2017 fantasy football breakout, Adam Thielen. Thielen came on a little bit towards the end of 2016, but boy did he come out with bang in 2017.
If we glance back at Fantasy Pros Average Draft Position Half Point PPR, you’ll see Adam Thielen is now being selected as WR #13. Wow. I’m not here compare/contrast Thielen and Sanders, but if Adam Thielen can go from zero to hero in the fantasy world after one season, Sanders should be back on your radar in 2018.
Based on his 2017 performance analytics page on PlayerProfile.com, Thielen took nearly 50% of his snaps lined up as the slot receiver. As a result, Adam Thielen had a massive share of the air-attack in Minnesota, having almost 50 more targets than his counterpart, Stefon Diggs.
Keenum had a memorable season once called upon as the QB1 of the Minnesota. A lot of his success was due to his extreme comfort with picking apart the middle of the field with Thielen. This brings us back to to that completion percentage of 67.6% completion rate.
Keenum is a smart guy and he knows he had a career year. Look for him to go back to what made him so successful in 2017 and hooking up with Sanders early and often in the middle of the field. I really like the chances of a proven WR in Emmanuel Sanders getting his name back into top-20 WR land this season.
Being able to draft Emmanuel Sanders towards round 7… where do we sign up? If you aim to go RB heavy early in your draft, don’t be afraid to lock in Sanders as your WR2, as early as mid-late round 5 (especially in PPR leagues).
Fantasy Football Value Picks – Wide Receiver: Jamison Crowder (ADP 92.5, WR #39)
A very similar situation to the one happening in Denver is happening across the country in D.C., Jamison Crowder comes into the season as the #1 slot option for a new, incredibly accurate QB in Alex Smith. Referring back to the Pro Football Reference passing statistics, Alex Smith finished right behind Case Keenum with a completion percentage of 67.5%.
I do not want to die on the hill “a high QB completion percentage leads to fantasy success”, but I am certainly not going to discount it. Alex Smith is a veteran professional who knows what it takes to succeed, and he has been incredibly successful by picking apart miss matches in the middle of the field.
Yes, he had a massive target up the middle with Travise Kelce, but he was dynamite in connecting with all pass-catchers in the inside part of the field. Well, that must put a smile on Jamison Crowder’s face. The guy makes a living running routes in the middle of the field.
These guys are not just paid to make plays on Sunday, they get paid to prepare for Sunday.
Smith is going into a new offense with players he has never played with before. Needless to say, he has spent a significant amount of film review on both what made this offense successful in the past, and what he can bring to the table to improve it. What was the only constant and positive takeaway in the 2017 Washington receiving core?
The answer is plain and simple: Jamison Crowder (sorry, Vernon Davis). Alex Smith knows how to prepare for Sunday and you can bet he has done his research (both on and off the field) on what Crowder can do from the slot. You can find Crowder in the top-20 in the Fantasy Football Today 2017 WR Leaders in receptions, finishing at #19.
Smith knows Crowder can make plays, and is always going to be a nice safety blanket up the middle. With the always injured Jordan Reed and the yet to peak Josh Doctson being the other options Smith can throw to (not sold on Paul Richardson), look for Jamison Crowder back in the top-20 area for receptions in 2018. At his current price tag of a mid-seventh round draft pick, it is very easy for me to target him as WR3/Flex option.
As I mentioned earlier with Emmanuel Sanders, if you find yourself going RB heavy early in drafts, and maybe take one of the few solid Tight Ends, don’t panic if Jamison Crowder ends up being your WR2. You’re going to enjoy what Crowder and Smith do together on Sundays this season.
Fantasy Football Value Picks – Wide Receiver: DeVante Parker (ADP 107, WR #44)
It’s put up or shut up time for DeVante Parker. The former first round pick has undoubtedly disappointed fantasy owners and loyal Dolphins fans throughout his 3 year career as an NFL wide-out. That is going to change this season… I hope.
Although Parker is nursing a broken finger at the moment and is unable to participate in anything in relation to catching a football, I don’t forecast him missing much time to start the fantasy season… maybe a week or two.
The 6’3″Parker had his most productive year in with Tannehill under center in 2016. Obviously, the Jay Cutler experience in 2017 did not work out in Parker’s favor. Cutler seemed to focus solely on Parker’s counterpart, Jarvis Landry. As we all know, Cutler is now spending his time making Cutler-like comments on his wife’s new reality TV show, and Jarvis Landry was traded to Cleveland. This leaves DeVante Parker with a large opportunity to lead the Dolphins in targets in 2018.
DeVante Parker is quite a large target, and an absolute stud when it comes to athleticism. If you watched him dominate during his time at Louisville, I’m sure you would have to agree – Parker passes the eye test. Miami certainly saw the high-ceiling that Parker can bring to the table, that is why they drafted him in the first round.
If you take a look at the Dolphins 2018 WR depth chart on Ourlads.com, you may get sick to your stomach – view discretion is advised. Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson are simply not going to be enough to get an NFL defense to respect the Miami passing attack. In addition to a weak WR core, the Dolphins have a lot of question marks at the tight end position.
Rookie, Mike Gesicki was a monster in the red zone at Penn State last year, but we all know how rare it is for a rookie tight end to have an impact in an offense right from the start. This leads me to believe DeVante Parker is going to be option A for Tannehill both inside and outside of the red zone.
If Parker continues to disappoint, you’re team won’t suffer because of him. With the current price tag of a 9th or 10th round draft, DeVante is being drafted as a bench stash, or at best, a WR3. Let’s take a shot on Parker finally being able to live up to his pedigree. He will pay dividends to fantasy owners who have faith in a long overdue, breakout season.
Fantasy Football Value Picks – Running Back: LeGarrette Blount (ADP 127, RB #46)
Detroit rookie running back Kerryon Johnson currently has an ADP of 70. But the Lions RB1 has an ADP of 127. Yes, LeGarrette Blount is going to start the season with every opportunity to lock up the RB1 job with Detroit.
With Detroit signing Matt Patricia as their new head coach, there are going to be a lot of question marks with how the Lions decide to run their offense. There is one thing that is certain: LeGarrette Blount is going to the name Patricia calls on when running the ball in the red zone. By no means should fantasy owners be banking on Blount to be their RB2 in 2018, but he is absolutely worth a look as a flex play to start the year.
I cannot fathom why Kerryon Johnson is being drafted more than 50 picks earlier than LeGarrette Blount. Is Kerryon going to be a solid fantasy producer in the NFL? Based on what I’ve seen from his tapes at Auburn and his stats from Sports Reference, there is no doubt in my mind Kerryon Johnson has the ability to be a 3-down style running back in the NFL. It’s just not going to happen in 2018.
Patricia watched first hand the success LeGarrette Blount can have when given the opportunity to run the rock. Blount scored 18 touchdowns with the Patriots in 2016, so you know Patricia is going to lean on his former colleague from New England when they need to score the football. On the downside, Blount is never going to be that 100 yard rusher we all want to roster each week in fantasy. He’s never averaged more than 80 yards per game (both rushing/receiving combined) in his career.
He is an effective runner who has sports a 4.4 yards per carry through his 8 years as a professional running back, and Patricia is aware of that. Patricia is also quite familiar with systems using multiple running backs. The Patriots have proven time and time again that you can win games with a “committee” style backfield. Luckily, Patricia has Theo Riddick on his roster.
Glancing at Pro Football Reference’s page on Theo Riddick, he has surpassed 50 receptions every season over the past 3 years. This is why Kerryon Johnson being drafted in the 6th round of fantasy drafts in my opinion, is a joke. Theo Riddick is one of the best 3rd down running backs in the NFL, and LeGarrette Blount has the trust of Matt Patricia to handle the early down duties and goal line carriers.
Unless you’re in a dynasty league, don’t waste an early pick on Kerryon Johnson. Take a proven player that you like in round 6 and target Blount a few rounds later to fill your flex position or worst case, a nice option to have on your bench.
Fantasy Football Value Picks – Running Back: Samaje Perine (ADP 175, RB #60)
The Washington Redskins just signed 33 year old, Adrian Peterson. I had a draft two days ago where Adrian Peterson was drafted in the 12th round, but Perine fell to me in round 15… The fantasy community apparently still thinks that we are back in 2015 where AP rushed for over 1,400 yards.
Outside of Chris Thompson, the running back situation in Washington is ugly on paper. I’m not sure what Jay Gruden sees in Adrian Peterson, but my gut tells me he is there to light a fire under Samaje Perine. At 5’11” and 230+ pounds, Samaje Perine is an absolute tank of a running back. Although Chris Thompson was extremely productive last season, he cannot handle a full workload as a 3-down running back.
The Washington Redskins have to keep Chris Thompson healthy, as he is a very important piece to that offense. The only way they can do that is to use him sparingly, and mainly for 3rd down purposes. So who is going to be the lead runner in the Washington backfield? I strongly believe Samaje Perine will get every opportunity to be that guy.
Referencing Pro Football References Fantasy Stats page on Samaje Perine, Perine had 6 games where he had 20 or more touches. In those 6 games, Samaje Perine averaged a total 9.8 fantasy points in a half point ppr format. That is nothing to write home about, but 9.8 fantasy points is a solid flex option.
I wouldn’t mention Samaje Perine as a value pick if he is only going to bring fantasy owners around 10 points a game. What I love about Perine this year is that he is running behind a healthy offensive line for the first time in his short career. He was very ineffective last season with a 3.45 yards per carry average. If this line can stay healthy and Perine can keep a hold on the early down job, he has the ability to to put up double digit points for fantasy owners on a weekly basis – even if he isn’t touching the ball 20+ times a game.
Look for Perine’s YPC to bump up nearly a whole yard this season, and if you mix in some receptions and touchdowns, he’s going to blow that 9.8 fantasy point average out of the water. Fantasy owners can grab Samaje in the middle of the 14th round. At a price point that is nearly free, how can you pass on the potential value Samaje Perine can bring to the table in 2018?
Honorable Mentions:
Chris Carson (ADP 111.5, RB #42)
Anthony Miller (ADP 155, WR #59)
Chris Godwin (ADP 190, WR #72)
C.J. Prosise (ADP 271, RB #80)
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