DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Sunday, August 26

Welcome into the Sunday Edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have a nine game afternoon slate in front of us so let’s get rolling!

German Marquez is the G.O.A.T. and it would have been a great night had I found some offense to go with him. OK, Marquez might not really be the G.O.A.T. but he’s been lights out recently and I’m happy that he worked out for anyone that played him. I just hope you put together a better offense than I did because hitters like Corey Dickerson put up a big fat 0 while his team scored 9 runs. That’s what we call “tilt” everyone so let’s dive into some Sunday baseball. You’ll notice another small tweak and I’m open to criticism about how readers like it!

DFS MLB –  Phillies at Blue Jays

Phillies Probable Starter – Vince Velasquez, RHP 

4.06 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 26.1 strikeout rate

Pitcher Splits and Pitch Mix 

Blue Jays xwOBA and ISO Leaderboard 

Velasquez is priced to a point on FanDuel where I think you can consider him even though it’s not the best possible matchup. The interesting thing here is Velasquez is far better against lefties on the road. His HR/9 is 2.37 at home and just 0.56 on the road. The good news is even against lefties, Velasquez is carrying a strikeout rate of 24 percent. If you think that Velasquez is going to get beat up, there are plenty of lefties that you can attack with. I don’t think you should play Kendrys Morales since he’s just about $4,000 and he’s gone deep in six straight games. He’s too expensive and the law of averages certainly would speak that he won’t make it seven straight. He does have a huge ISO versus the main pitch for Velasquez and he’s been due some good luck all year long but this is crazy. Justin Smoak has power from the left side Billy McKinney is super cheap for a likely leadoff hitter. I wouldn’t mess with the righties here as Velasquez has only given up three homers to them all year.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Billy McKinney

Secondary Options – Kendrys Morales, Justin Smoak

Blue Jay Probable Starter – Marco Estrada, RHP 

4.88 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 17.5 strikeout rate

Pitcher Splits and Pitch Mix 

Phillies xwOBA and ISO Leaderboards 

I don’t know how I can’t play Rhys Hoskins given this matchup. Estrada is a severe reverse splits pitcher, giving up 14 home runs to righty hitters this season. Not only does Hoskins have a .265 ISO against righty pitching on the whole season but he has a .275 against the four/seam and changeup mix that Estrada leans on so much. If Wilson Ramos is in the lineup, he’d be an excellent play for a lot of the same reasons Hoskins is. The issue is he’s dealing with a sore wrist so we’ll need to keep an eye on the lineup. Further down the lineup, Maikel Franco and Scott Kingery are fine plays due to Estrada’s reverse splits but there’s not much that pops up via their stats. I’m probably skipping the lefties just because Estrada does control them to a pretty good extent.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Rhys Hoskins, Wilson Ramos(if active)

Secondary Options – Maikel Franco, Scott Kingery

Home Run Pick – Rhys Hoskins

DFS MLB – Braves at Marlins

Braves Probable Starter – Kevin Gausman, RHP 

3.99 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 28.9 strikeout rate

Pitcher Splits and Pitch Mix

Marlins xwOBA and ISO Leaderboards 

I always try to be totally honest with you guys and I can very honestly say I never know what to do with Gausman in any matchup. His last four starts have been worth 12, 55, 28 and 49 points. There just doesn’t seem to be much sense to take from those starts and it’s even harder to find hitters from the Marlins that you’re going to feel comfortable with. Gausman has given up more homers to righties and the best hitter for Miami is righty J.T. Realmuto. I was also going to suggest Austin Dean who’s been very solid in his short stint in the majors so far but he’s already $3,000 on FanDuel. Realmuto is only $200 more and I can’t see why I would play Dean as a one-off and not Realmuto. I wouldn’t look at too much more from the Marlins on this slate as it stands right now.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – J.T. Realmuto

Secondary Options – Austin Dean, Brian Anderson, Starlin Castro

Marlins Probable Starter – Pablo Lopez, RHP 

4.42 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 19.2 strikeout rate

Pitcher Splits and Pitch Mix 

Braves xwOBA and ISO Leaderboards 

Lopez has given up a lot more power to the righty hitters so far in his short career and the Braves are due some runs after the past two days when they’ve totaled one run of the bat of Dansby Swanson. If you’re paying up for a hitter in this game, I’d play Ronald Acuna over Freddie Freeman since he’s righty and has power to spare. He checks the boxes as the team leader in OPS, wOBA and ISO on the whole season and then is also on top of the pitch data charts against the mix for Lopez. The ISO is particularly massive for the pitch data at .366. Charlie Culberson could be sneaky and is second in ISO via the pitch mix metric and he’s a reasonable $3,000. I would concede there is a chance that Lopez could have a solid game here. Atlanta hasn’t scored many runs and he’s giving up virtually no power to lefties. I don’t think I would use him but this pitching slate is not for the faint of heart. I understand a case behind it to go all in on the bats.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Ronald Acuna, Charlie Culberson

Secondary Options – Freddie Freeman, Johan Camargo, Nick Markakis

Home Run Pick – J.T. Realmuto

DFS MLB – White Sox at Tigers

White Sox Probable Starter – Michael Kopech, RHP 

0.00 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 40.0 strikeout rate

Pitcher Splits and Pitch Mix 

Tigers xwOBA and ISO Leaderboard 

Man it was such a bummer that Kopech had his debut cut short by rain. He legitimately might be my favorite pitcher on this slate and even though we take his splits and mix with a big grain of salt, we saw the big fastball play up at and average of 97 MPH. His slider was dropping down to about 81 MPH and that would be unfair if those pitches look the same until they get close to plate. There’s a reason his strikeout rate has always been high. If you read this article often, you know that the Tigers struggle mightily against righty pitching and now Kopech should have whatever first start jitters he might have had out of the way. The upside is calling my name in a rock solid matchup and I won’t have any Tigers hitters today.

Tigers Hitters to Target

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Nicholas Catellanos, Niko Goodrum

Tigers Probable Starter – Jordan Zimmermann, RHP 

4.18 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 20.7 strikeout rate

Pitcher Splits and Pitch Mix 

White Sox xwOBA and ISO Leaderboard 

I might side with the righties here and that’s not always something that’s very exciting to say with the White Sox. They are generally a little bit lefty heavy as far as who we want to target and one one the better targets from the offense might just be Jose Rondon. Its only been 31 at-bats int the majors but he’s smacked righty pitching to the tune of a 1.088 OPS, .400 ISO and .453 wOBA. Not surprisingly, he sits near the top of the pitch mix leaderboards as well. The bonus part is he’s only $2,700 and shortstop isn’t always the easiest to fill. Zimmermann has some fine looking stats on the surface but he really hasn’t been that good lately and the FIP and xFIP point to him being a worse pitcher. He’s capable of still being productive like when he he trolled us all in his last start versus the Cubs so I may go light on this game other than Kopech and a hitter or two to fill the lineup.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Rondon

Secondary Options – Matt Davidson, Avisail Garcia

Home Run Pick – Jose Rondon

DFS MLB – Red Sox at Rays

Red Sox Probable Starter – Nathan Eovaldi, RHP 

3.81 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 20.1 strikeout rate

Pitcher Splits and Pitch Mix 

Rays xwOBA and ISO Leaderboards 

Do we like a Nathan Eovaldi revenge spot today? Given the pitching on this slate, I might take a shot at him given his depressed price point coming off three uneven starts. I’m not going to hold the last one against him since it came against the Indians, who can beat up any pitcher in baseball. You’re really only looking at three hitters for the Rays that have any type of power and rate well against the four seam/cutter mix that Eovaldi throws frequently and it’s C.J. Cron, Jake Bauers and Willy Adames. I don’t think any of the three would be priority plays for me and with Mallex Smith on the DL, it’s hard to find anyone else that you really like. You could throw Tommy Pham in the mix who is coming off a home run yesterday but that’s not the best bet since he’s worse off against righty pitching.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – C.J. Cron

Secondary Options – Jake Bauers, Willy Adams, Tommy Pham

Rays Probable Starter – Blake Snell, LHP 

2.07 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 29.4 strikeout rate

Pitcher Splits and Pitch Mix 

Red Sox xwOBA and ISO Leaderboards 

I think we’ve arrived at the GPP special as far as starting pitcher goes. I’m willing to bet a lot of folks will be scared off this matchup and I can’t blame them that much. Facing a lineup that includes Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez and Steve Pearce is no fun for a lefty and that doesn’t even include Xander Bogaerts. However, Snell has pitched 19 innings against Boston this year and has only surrendered two earned runs and has racked up 19 strikeouts. Two of those starts have gone for 50+ points so I really want to pitch him a little bit somewhere. If Snell can control the three lefty killers, he’s got a chance at the 50+ point outcome again today. Even if you don’t want to use Snell, I wouldn’t play any of the Red Sox hitters outside any of the main three we’ve mentioned here, despite some of the gaudy numbers they have put up this year.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options –  Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Steve Pearce

Home Run Pick – C.J. Cron

DFS MLB – Nationals at Mets

Nationals Probable Starter – Jefry Rodriguez, RHP 

5.46 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and 17.6 strikeout rate

Pitcher Splits and Pitch Mix 

Mets xwOBA and ISO leaderboards 

Rodriguez has had a very clear weakness in his major league career so far and it has been versus the lefty hitters. They have a HR/9 over 2.00 against him so far and while I’m really bummed that Brandon Nimmo is unavailable, Jay Bruce and Michael Conforto are ready to roll for the Mets today. There’s no debate that Bruce has been awful this year but he does have a homer and a double in his two games ff a lengthy DL stint of his own. He’s also still dirt cheap so that helps keep him in the running. Paying $3,600 for Jeff McNeil isn’t something I’d be very excited for unless you stack the lefties. He does have an ISO over .170 and a wOBA over .375 but also hasn’t hit 100 at-bats yet. Michael Conforto is in the same boat as he’s a good option but I’m not sure I want to sink $3,200 into him. He and McNeil both rate poorly in ISO against the pitch mix so it might just be a cheap Bruce play for me.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jay Bruce

Secondary Options – Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto(elite if stacking)

Mets Probable Starter – Steven Matz, LHP

4.55 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 21.2 strikeout rate

Pitcher Splits and Pitch Mix 

Nationals xwOBA and ISO Leaderboards

I’m still highly upset with this Nationals team after they couldn’t hit Jason Vargas on Friday night who is one of the worst pitchers in baseball by many metrics. I also learned a lesson that I should have know, especially this late in the season and it’s don’t deviate from the process. I might not be a part of the Philadelphia 76ers but The Process should be done every game. I looked after that debacle and the Nationals rated very poorly against lefty changeups, which Vargas throws a lot. That’s important for today because Matz is a heavy sinker pitcher and the pitch data isn’t promising. Anthony Rendon hits for a .450 ISO and every other major hitter is .111 or under. The Nationals also haven’t scored a run in three games. One hitter I might play regardless is Trea Turner because he has insane stolen base upside. Matz is tied with teammate Noah Syndergaard with the most allowed in the majors at 25. If Turner gets on, he’s stealing a bag.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon

Secondary Options – Ryan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto

Home Run Pick – Anthony Rendon

DFS MLB – Pirates at Brewers

Pirates Probable Starter – Chris Archer, RHP 

4.41 ERA, 1.43 WHIP AND 24.3 strikeout rate

Pitcher Splits and Pitch Mix 

Brewers xwOBA and ISO Leaderboards 

I’m going to rail on this again and maybe it’s my Pirates-colored glasses but I cannot for the life of me figure out why the Bucs are forcing the sinker on Archer. It’s been his second most thrown pitch his past two starts and it doesn’t make a ton of sense to have him throw a pitch he hasn’t thrown since 2014, via brooks baseball.com. Does the man not have enough on his plate in being traded to a new city and league? He has to incorporate a new pitch now too? He’s recorded exactly one strikeout with it and is giving up a .421 average, .526 slugging and .105 ISO on the pitch. Someone needs to explain to me why this pitch is in the arsenal, let alone a vital part of it. I wonder why Archer has only eclipsed six strikeouts in four starts with the Bucs.

Now that I’ve said that, the lefties from the Brewers are where we want to go and if Archer doesn’t have his strikeout stuff, he might get hit hard. If we adjust the pitching data to reflect the sinker as one of the main pitches, Mike Moustakas looks like a real bargain with a .300 ISO at $3,400. Christian Yelich has been a hitting machine lately and $4,200 isn’t that bad for him. You can kick in Travis Shaw and make a nice there man stack if you don’t like Archer today. We also have the BvP narrative with Jonathan Schoop who owns six(!) home runs versus Archer in 34 at-bats. I wanted to play Archer for strikeout upside against a team that is fourth in baseball in strikeout rate but the sinker data stopped that cold because he’s using the sinker 33 percent to lefties the past two starts.

Brewers Hitters to Target

Elite Options – Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, Jonathan Schoop

Secondary Options – Travis Shaw, Eric Thames

Brewers Probable Starter – Chase Anderson, RHP 

3.92 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 20.0 strikeout rate

Pitcher Splits and Pitch Mix

Pirates xwOBA and ISO Leaderboards 

Anderson has given up a whopping 17 home runs to righty hitters so far this season and that issue magnifies at home, where 12 have come against him. That equates to a massive 2.95 HR/9 in Miller Park so some Bucco righties look like a sensible plan today given they finally are waking up a little bit on offense. I’d start with Starling Marte, who does have a .239 ISO against the pitch mix for Anderson and can chip in steals if he’s not leaving the park. The catching combo of Francisco Cervelli or Elias Diaz isn’t bad either and I’d bet that Cervelli sits in this spot. David Freese has been hitting cleanup a fair amount and has a .343 wOBA on the season and is very reasonably priced. Kevin Newman has picked up his first few hits in the majors the past two days and could be an interesting punt at the minimum price. I don’t think Anderson is all that good, especially at home and the 6.15 FIP and 4.84 xFIP would agree with me.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Starling Marte, whoever catches

Secondary Options – David Freese, Kevin Newman

Home Run Pick – Starling Marte

DFS MLB – A’s at Twins

A’s Probable Starter – Chris Bassitt, RHP 

3.38 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 17.7 strikeout rate

Pitcher Splits and Pitch Mix 

Twins wOBA and ISO Leaderboards 

Bassitt hasn’t given up a homer to a lefty in a little over 30 innings pitched so far this year so that’s not promising for the Twins lineup. He also doesn’t throw any one pitch to lefties over 29 percent of the time so the pitch data fro them doesn’t really help. I was hoping that Miguel Sano looked good against righty sinkers but his ISO is down at .077 so I don’t think he’s in play for me with his monster strikeout rate. I definitely don’t think Bassitt won’t give up a home run to a lefty but I don’t want to pay for Eddie Rosario or really Jorge Polanco. The Twins offense has just been very average lately and there’s nothing about the matchup that stands out. You either stack the Twins with Sano, Polanco, Rosario and maybe Tyler Austin or you just walk away from this one.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Three or four man stack

Twins Probable Starter – Jose Berrios, RHP 

3.69 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 24.7 strikeout rate

Pitcher Splits and Pitch Mix 

A’s xwOBA and ISO Leaderboards 

The splits for Berrios for batters is pretty even but he is significantly better at home this year. I might be in the minority here, but I would rather play Snell than Berrios today because I think the A’s might be able to get to him more than the Red Sox can Snell. Berrios leans on a four seam and curve mix and the A’s hitters appear to feast on that. Matt Olson, Stephen Piscotty, Khris Davis, Jed Lowrie and Matt Chapman all sit on an ISO against the pitch mix over .265 and Olson and Davis are tied for the top spot at .320. When over half the lineup has that type of number, that worries me a little bit when I’d want to use a pitcher that is prone to some roller coaster starts. I think an A’s stack has a lower probability of going nuts but if it does, you’d have a serious leg up on the rest of the field.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Khris Davis, Matt Olson(GPP)

Secondary Options – Jed Lowrie, Stephen Piscotty, Matt Chapman

Home Run Pick – Jed Lowrie

DFS MLB – Indians at Royals

Indians Probable Starter – Shane Bieber, RHP 

4.36 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 24.0 strikeout rate

Pitcher Splits and Pitch Mix 

Royals xwOBA and ISO Leaderboards 

I have to admit, I was impressed by Bieber’s last start has he scored 35 points in Boston. Now, a nice chunk of that was form getting the win but that was still a terrible spot and he pitched admirably in it. He’s struggled a lot worse against lefty pitching so far and I think there’s ways to attack him today for sure. I think my favorite might just be Ryan O’Hearn. If you haven’t heard of him, I can’t really blame you. I wouldn’t know him if I wasn’t writing this article. He’s only logged 42 at-bats against righties this year but has a 1.189 OPS, .459 ISO and a .488 wOBA. He also is perched atop both pitch data metrics and is still just $2,600. If you wan the more “proven” hitter, Lucas Duda is only $200 more and does own a home run versus Bieber earlier this year. I suppose you could play Alex Gordon but he’s not my favorite of the group.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Ryan O’Hearn, Lucas Duda

Secondary Options – Alex Gordon

Royals Probable Starter – Jorge Lopez, RHP 

3.99 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 16.2 strikeout rate

Pitcher Splits 

So we skipped the Pitch Mix and xwOBA and ISO versus sad pitch mix because Lopez is just all over the place and throws nothing more than 28 percent of the time. I just want to stick with the Cleveland hitters that smoke righty hitting so you likely know where we’re heading – Jose Ramirez. He is in a bit of a mini slump but that’s not going to last forever. The seasonal data of a 1.096 OPS, .366 ISO and .447 wOBA says all that we need to know. Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso and Michael Brantley are at least at a .190 mark for ISO on the season and this isn’t the best spot for Lopez. Then again, there’s not a lot of pitchers that can pitch against the Indians that you feel good about.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Options – Yonder Alonso, Michael Brantley, Melky Cabrera

Home Run Pick – Lucas Duda and Jose Ramirez

DFS MLB – Reds at Cubs

Reds Probable Starter – Homer Bailey, RHP 

6.21 ERA, 162 WHIP and 15.2 strikeout rate

Pitcher Splits and Pitch Mix 

Cubs xwOBA and ISO Leaderboards 

I’m going to prioritize lefties in this spot but I do think you can play both Daniel Murphy and Javier Baez in the same lineup and be pretty happy about it. Bailey throws a lot of fastballs and there’s Cub hitters that feast on that. The reason I want lefties is Bailey has a HR/9 over 2.50 this year and Murphy has been smashing righty fastballs for a lot of the recent season. Anthony Rizzo and Daniel Murphy are my top tow hitters from this side of the game. Murphy was really heating up lately and both hitters have an ISO over .225 on the season. Baez also smashes the pitch with a giant .294 ISO against righty fastballs and he’ll see a lot of them. It’s hard not to like a bunch of Cubbies today, including Jason Heyward, Ian Happ and Kyle Schwarber.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber

Secondary Options – Jason Heyward, Ian Happ, Ben Zobrist

Cubs Probable Starter – Kyle Hendricks, RHP

4.04 ERA, 1.24 WHIO and 20.0 strikeout rate

Pitcher Splits and Pitch Mix 

Reds xwOBA and ISO Leaderboards 

There is not a lot that really sticks out here. The splits for Hendricks are about as dead even as you can get, including giving up 10 home runs to each side of the plate and having an identical wOBA given up of .313. Eugenio Suarez and Scott Schebler are the only Reds that have an ISO over .200 versus the pitch mix so I think this might be a pass for me. You can’t trust Hendricks in this game to do anything but be totally average with very limited strikeout upside. I have no interest in him at over $8,000 and don’t believe the Reds really get to him in this game.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Scott Schebler, Eugenio Suarez

Home Run Pick – Anthony Rizzo

DFS MLB – Sample FanDuel Lineup

P – Michael Kopech

C/1B – Anthony Rizzo

2B – Daniel Murphy 

3B – Jose Ramirez 

SS – Trea Turner 

OF – Jay Bruce, Christian Yelich, Jay Bruce

Utility – Kevin Newman 

When you can find a pitcher under $7,000 and a couple of solid punts, lineup construction turns into a lot of fun! I’ve been starving for offense lately and this lineup has a ton of upside from a homer perspective and a stolen base perspective. The only true punt is Newman but he’s minimum price so even if he zeroes, it’s not that big of a deal. Having these types of big names has to make you feel good heading into Sunday afternoon.

The Core – Michael Kopech, Rhys Hoskins, Trea Turner

Pitching to Consider 

High End – Blake Snell, Jose Berrios(GPP only and Snell > Berrios)

Mid-Range – Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber

Punts – Michael Kopech, Vince Velasquez

Stacks to Consider – Atlanta Braves, Washington Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Oakland A’s, Chicago Cubs

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.