College football 2018 preview: Predicting the first loss for every Top 25 team

Michigan State went 10-3 in 2017, beating both Penn State and Michigan. They bring back 19 of 22 starters including quarterback, running back, their top five receivers, four starters on the O-line and four leading tacklers.

But according to Oddshark and a handful of other online odds makers, Sparty has 6 to 1 odds to make the College Football Playoff, compared to Penn State at 5 to 1 and Michigan at 3 to 1.

The difference between Michigan State and Penn State is marginal and the two lines are close enough to lump them in as having about the same chances. But is it still enough for this experienced Michigan State team to feel disrespected?  Yes.

Has Michigan State ever entered a season feeling adequately respected though? And would they even know how to handle it if they were? Absolutely not. Mike Dantonio’s Spartans are exactly where they want to be, just under the radar, but right there, close enough to strike.

Like the rest of the Big Ten, Michigan State’s schedule won’t carve an easy path to the playoff. They’ll have to play Northwestern, Penn State, Michigan and Ohio State over the course of the season. The only real advantage is that the only road game of the four listed above is at Penn State. For that reason, I think they finish the regular season 10-2 but take their first loss in Happy Valley in October.