DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Monday, August 27

Welcome into the Monday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have a medium size seven game slate in front of us tonight so let’s go to work!

It was a pretty solid day yesterday as both DFS MLB lineups soared past 170 points and that was with big fat three points combined from Jay Bruce and Jose Ramirez. If those guys had contributed, it could have been a really good day but sometimes those things happen. Let’s dive into tonight’s action!

DFS MLB – White Sox at Yankees

White Sox Probable Starter – Carlos Rodon, LHP 

2.71 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 20.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .141 average, .234 wOBA, 23.3 K rate, 30.4 fly ball rate and 28.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .194 average, .270 wOBA, 19.1 K rate, 47.1 fly ball rate and 25.8 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Yankees xwOBA and ISO Leaderboards 

I usually like to use Rodon since he has a pretty decent strikeout upside and he’s been going deeper into games but this isn’t the spot where I’m brave enough to put him out there. The walk rate is at 9.3 percent which is basically in line with his career number but that’s not going to be helpful in Yankee Stadium. It’s not hard to see a scenario where he walks to guys and then gives up a cheapie home run to ruin his day. The obvious threat in the lineup is Giancarlo Stanton with a 1.103 OPS, .344 ISO and .453 wOBA on the season. Gleyber Torres, Aaron Hicks and Miguel Andujar all have an ISO of .234 or higher and they look just as promising via the pitch data. It could be a rough night for Rodon.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar

Secondary Options – Aaron Hicks

Yankees Probable Starter – Masahiro Tanaka, RHP

3.90 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 25.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .219 average, .287 wOBA, 23.5 K rate, 29.4 fly ball rate and 36.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .238 average, .329 wOBA, 26.3 K rate, 39.3 fly ball rate and 40.9 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, White Sox xwOBA and ISO Leaderboards 

I have a feeling Tanaka might be chalk tonight and we all know that nothing ever goes wrong when it’s a Tanaka chalk night. I might never get him right but it’s hard to ignore the upside that he has this evening given the White Sox and their second highest strikeout rate in the majors. They also don’t have a ton of righties with legit power so you can see what thing are lining up for Tanaka to cruise. Matt Davidson, Tim Anderson and Avisail Garcia have some power from the right side so they can hit Tanaka but they also all strikeout at least 25 percent of the time. Davidson is especially poor at over 35 percent as far as strikeouts go. I think I would side with Tanaka in this matchup but this spot screams as a let down to me.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Matt Davidson, Tim Anderson, Avisail Garcia

Home Run Pick – Gleyber Torres

DFS MLB – Blue Jays at Orioles

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Sam Gaviglio, RHP 

4.94 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 21.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .280 average, .353 wOBA, 15.3 K rate, 36.4 fly ball rate and 39.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .267 average, .333 wOBA, 26.4 K rate, 29.6 fly ball rate and 30.3 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Orioles xwOBA and ISO Leaderboards 

I’m not the biggest fan of Gaviglio but it is interesting that he strikes out righties at such a high percentage against a lineup that is very righty heavy. The Orioles are still sixth in strikeout rate against righty pitching this year so there’s some upside here. There’s also discernible downside as he’s gotten waxed on the road and his FIP and xFIP are both over 6.00 to lefties. I might stick with the lefties meaning that Jonathan Villar and Cedric Mullins are front and center. The only Orioles lefty that has any type of track record this season against righty sinkers is Chris Davis, who has a .818 ISO and .442 xwOBA. These three might make a pretty solid three man stack that could be a little different on a smaller slate.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Cedric Mullins, Jonathan Villar

Secondary Options – Chris Davis

Orioles Probable Starter – David Hess, RHP

5.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 14.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .260 average, .359 wOBA, 15.3 K rate, 44.6 fly ball rate and 30.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .257 average, .341 wOBA, 14.5 K rate, 50.0 fly ball rate and 29.0 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Blue Jays xwOBA and ISO Leaderboards 

This could get very ugly tonight for Hess. We did say that in his last start versus this exact Blue Jays team and he turned around and put up 40 plus points but I think that performance is the outlier, not the normal. He throws his fastball a ton and doesn’t miss a lot of bats and the Jays have six hitters that will likely be in the lineup that have a .300 ISO or higher against righty fastballs. Hess has surrendered a 2.70 HR/9 at home to lefty hitters so we should start there. I flat refuse to play Kendrys Morales when he’s the tenth highest salaried hitter on a slate, regardless of him hitting another home run yesterday. Even Curtis Granderson is up at $3,500 so I think I’ll just pocket the $300 and play Justin Smoak along with Billy McKinney tonight. Teoscar Hernandez has the power we want but is hitting under .190 since the All-Star break which isn’t going to cut it.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Justin Smoak, Billy McKinney, Randall Grichuk

Secondary Options – Kendrys Morales, Lourdes Gurriel, Russell Martin

Home Run Pick – Justin Smoak

DFS MLB – Nationals at Phillies

Nationals Probable Starter – Stephen Strasburg, RHP 

4.23 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 28.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .241 average, .301 wOBA, 22.8 K rate, 27.7 fly ball rate and 29.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .248 average, .324 wOBA, 35.7 K rate, 37.9 fly ball rate and 42.3 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Phillies xwOBA and ISO Leaderboards 

I don’t know how anyone could trust Strasburg at this point. He got knocked around by this exact Phillies lineup in his last start and he saw his velocity really drop as it went on. That’s not the best sign for a pitcher coming off the disabled list and I’m not touching him at all today. He’s got to prove he can make it through a start before I play him again. At the same time, I’m not too excited for the Phillies hitters because Strasburg is still a very talented pitcher and he could go out and dominate. Rhys Hoskins and Maikel Franco are the only two hitters over .200 in ISO against the main pitch mix for Strasburg and they’re also the only hitters above that mark during the season as well. This spot doesn’t excite me too much from any angle.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Rhys Hoskins, Maikel Franco, Carlos Santana

Phillies Probable Starter – Zach Eflin, RHP 

3.93 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 22.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .288 average, .358 wOBA, 21.6 K rate, 43.0 fly ball rate and 30.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .218 average, .270 wOBA, 22.5 K rate, 38.0 fly ball rate and 29.2 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Nationals xwOBA and ISO Leaderboards 

I’m not going to play any righties against Eflin seeing as how he’s only allowing that .270 wOBA and we pretty clearly want the lefty hitters from the Nationals. The Nationals lineup has lost some of their firepower and the only realistic home run threats are Bryce Harper and Juan Soto. They lead in seasonal numbers and pitch data numbers for the active hitters as well. Adam Eaton is the only lefty of note but he’s not a power threat either. He has a poor .115 ISO on the year and the pitch data looks even worse at .036. Harper missed Sunday’s game with an illness so if he misses again, I think Eflin could actually be in play as a pitching option. Soto is a good option but much like the Nationals overall, he has been cold lately with the exception of yesterday. Maybe this is the matchup that snaps Soto awake a little bit.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Juan Soto, Bryce Harper

Secondary Options – Adam Eaton

Home Run Pick – Juan Soto

DFS MLB – Mets at Cubs

Mets Probable Starter – Noah Syndergaard, RHP 

3.38 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 24.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .272 average, .296 wOBA, 22.9 K rate, 26.8 fly ball rate and 21.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .248 average, .290 wOBA, 26.4 K rate, 24.1 fly ball rate and 19.3 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Cubs xwOBA and ISO Leaderboards 

It’s hard to get too excited for either side of this part of the game. For his part, Syndergaard probably can’t be played at his price against a Cubs offense that could do some damage. The stats don’t look horrible at all for Syndergaard but they’re far from what we would expect from a healthy Thor. He’s overpriced for what his upside has been this season. The issue comes from it’s hard to peg a Cub to attack him with. He’s not giving up fly balls or a lot of hard hits, which has led him to only give up six home runs in over 100 innings. If I’m going to pay up for a Cub, it’s going to be Javier Baez. He rates well against the pitch mix and he can steal some bases, which is one of the biggest weaknesses against Syndergaard. Baez also has the highest ISO on the team through the season. Other than Baez, I would lean towards the Cubbies that don’t strike out a ton like Anthony Rizzo and Daniel Murphy.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Javier Baez

Secondary Options – Anthony Rizzo, Daniel Murphy

Cubs Probable Starter – Jon Lester, LHP 

3.64 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 18.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .260 average, .356 wOBA, 20.7 K rate, 36.2 fly ball rate and 35.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .249 average, .319 wOBA, 18.3 K rate, 37.7 fly ball rate and 32.8 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Mets xwOBA and ISO Leaderboards 

This is going to be very interesting to see how this spot plays out. Everyone knows how much I believe that Lester still hasn’t fully regressed yet and there’s more to come. The Mets as a team do struggle against lefties but here’s the catch with that – they’re much closer to league average overall on the road against lefties. That means that I will have some Mets exposure because Lester has been worse at home this year. He’s quietly been worse against lefties with a 2.20 HR/9 in Wrigley versus lefties and Jeff McNeil and Michael Conforto might be really great against the grain options. Conforto would be my first choice since he has a .192 ISO on the season against lefties and then he’s sporting a .283 ISO against the pitch mix. McNeil hasn’t hit for power against lefties but he does have a .376 wOBA. If Devin Mesoraco is active, he’s a fine option and has a .636 ISO in a very limited sample versus the pitch mix. I want to hammer hitters against Lester just like any other day but might be a bit more cautious than normal.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Michael Conforto, Amed Rosario, Devin Mesoraco(if active)

Secondary Options – Jeff McNeil, Todd Frazier

Home Run Pick – Michael Conforto

DFS MLB – A’s at Astros

A’s Probable Starter – Brett Anderson, LHP 

3.47 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 13.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .254 average, .300 wOBA, 12.1 K rate, 17.6 fly ball rate and 35.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .263 average, .310 wOBA, 13.4 K rate, 28.0 fly ball rate and 35.7 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Astros xwOBA and ISO Leaderboards 

Anderson has seen pretty significant splits whether he’s home or on the road this season and it’s not a good spot for him tonight regardless of where the game is located. The first time he faced the Astros this year he wound up with a -12 on his score sheet as they tagged him for seven earned runs. There’s no shortage of options for the Astros tonight even though there always is the danger of Anderson generating enough ground balls to throw a quality start. On the high-end, the trio of Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa are all top flight options. If you want some lower owned options, all of Josh Reddick, Tyler White and Martin Maldonado have an ISO of at least .263 on the season. Anderson has only given up one bomb to lefties so far so I’m not sure how much I like Reddick but he’s in the mix. Through 38 at-bats versus the Astros offense, Anderson is allowing a .395 average and a .511 xwOBA.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa

Secondary Options – Martin Maldonado, Josh Reddick, Tyler White

Astros Probable Starter – Gerrit Cole, RHP 

2.73 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 34.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .170 average, .248 wOBA, 41.0 K rate, 45.6 fly ball rate and 30.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .213 average, .269 wOBA, 28.7 K rate, 38.4 fly ball rate and 33.6 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, A’s xwOBA and ISO Leaderboards 

Right off the hop, the lefties from the A’s are out for me with the immense strikeout rate Cole carries against the handedness. It’s true he has given up seven home runs to them but you’re looking for the needle in the haystack on that one. The only hitters I might advocate taking a shot on in tournaments is Ramon Laureano and Khris Davis. The former is super cheap and has hit well in a very limited sample size but his strikeout percentage is also well over 30 percent so there is serious risk there. Davis has an ISO over .320 and a wOBA over .380 this season and then is carrying a .395 ISO against the main pitch mix. If there’s a bat that could take Cole out, that’s my bet.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Khris Davis, Ramon Laureano

Home Run Pick – Alex Bregman

DFS MLB – Rockies at Angels

Rockies Probable Starter – Jon Gray, RHP 

4.67 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 27.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .250 average, .328 wOBA, 29.2 K rate, 34.2 fly ball rate and 38.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .256 average, .295 wOBA, 24.9 K rate, 24.9 fly ball rate and 31.5 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Angels xwOBA and ISO Leaderboards 

Gray has been awesome since he returned from the minors and he’s definitely in play tonight. The Angels strikeout at a pretty low rate of just 20.6 percent so I wonder if Gray really has a ceiling game. His strikeout rate also does drop against righties which still makes up most of the Angels lineup. Gray has given up 12 homers to lefties and just four to righties so Shohei Ohtani is pretty intriguing in this spot. He’s been great against righty pitching so far with a 1.038 OPS, .337 ISO and a .431 wOBA in his rookie campaign. He also has the highest ISO on the team of .397 against the four seam and slider mix Gray throws. I would never talk you off of Mike Trout but I don’t believe that’s a route I’m looking at tonight.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Shohei Ohtani

Secondary Options – Kole Calhoun, Mike Trout

Angels Probable Starter – Odrisamer Despaigne, RHP

6.35 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 19.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .291 average, .311 wOBA, 20.1 K rate, 30.2 fly ball rate and 41.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .290 average, .354 wOBA, 19.1 K rate, 20.8 fly ball rate and 32.7 had hit rate

Pitch Mix, Rockies xwOBA and ISO Leaderboards 

It seems weird to say but I don’t think Despaigne is as bad as the surface numbers. His xFIP and FIP to righties at home would agree as they sit at 3.24 and 2.30 but those metrics to lefties are far worse at over 5.00. That leads me to the Colorado lefties and David Dahl is where I’m starting. He’s the team leader in OPS, ISO and wOBA on the year and it does help that both Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon are having “average” seasons against righty pitching, the fact stands that Dahl is a good hitter. It’s weird because you look at some of the metrics and this seems like a juicy spot for the Rockies, despite being on the road. Despaigne is giving up gobs of line drives but also has only given up two home runs total. I wish he was a better pitcher because the Rockies offense is terrible on the road but I can’t trust Despaigne whatsoever.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – David Dahl

Secondary Options – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story

Home Run Pick – David Dahl

DFS MLB – Diamondbacks at Giants

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Patrick Corbin, LHP 

3.17 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 30.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .244 average, .314 wOBA, 30.0 K rate, 26.2 fly ball rate and 43.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .205 average, .243 wOBA, 31.1 K rate, 28.3 fly ball rate and 42.0 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Giants xwOBA and ISO Leaderboards

This will be Corbin’s sixth start against the Giants this year and he’s more or less owned them so far. He’s racked up 32.2 innings, only given up eight earned runs and struck out 37 batters. That’s a track record that looks pretty enticing to me. The problem is the price because he’s up over $11,000 on FanDuel and that is awfully steep. He’s made nine starts since the start of July and has only been over 50 points twice. If you’re not getting that amount of points, it’s not going to be a good way to spend that salary. I really don’t want any Giants hitters though you can make the case for Brandon Crawford and Evan Longoria to some extent. They both have an ISO over .200 against lefty sliders while basically every other hitter on the Giants have a mark of .100 or below. Crawford isn’t really that great of an option because Corbin has only given up three one runs to lefty hitters. If you can’t hit the lefty slider, it’s going to be tough to get to Corbin.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Brandon Crawford, Evan Longoria

Giants Probable Starter – Chris Stratton, RHP 

5.37 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and 17.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .294 average, .364 wOBA, 13.4 K rate, 28.8 fly ball rate and 36.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH -.279 average, .349 wOBA, 23.2 K rate, 37.6 fly ball rate and 47.2 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Diamondbacks xwOBA and ISO Leaderboards 

Can we move this game outside of AT&T Park please? The Diamondbacks should be able to beat up on Stratton but I’m never a huge fan of loading up on offenses that are in San Francisco. The park is going to help him to some extent but I think hitters like A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt and David Peralta are all fine options. They all have ISO’s over .275 against the pitch mix for Stratton and Peralta is leading the team in ISO, OPS and wOBA this season. He’s been a monster, with an average over .300 and 25 home runs on the season. I wouldn’t go crazy with the Diamondbacks because the chances at home runs are a little less than normal but those three are excellent options.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – David Peralta

Secondary Options – Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock

Home Run Pick – A.J. Pollock

DFS MLB – FanDuel Sample Lineup

P – Masahiro Tanaka

C/1B – Justin Smoak

2B – Lourdes Gurriel

3B – Alex Bregman

SS – Amed Rosario

OF – Billy McKinney, Michael Conforto, David Dahl

Utility – Tyler White  

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I’m grudgingly putting Tanaka in as my pitcher of choice even though I can’t shake the feeling that him being the chalk ends very poorly tonight. I’m also quite content to have a Blue Jays stack because like I said earlier, I don’t think Hess can shut down that lineup once again. Hess might not be as terrible as some of the metrics would say but he’s far from a good pitcher either. From there, we build a couple mini two-man stacks from the Astros and the Mets while finishing off with a one-off David Dahl who is super cheap for the upside he has tonight.

The Core – David Dahl, Amed Rosario, Alex Bregman

Pitching To Consider 

High End – Patrick Corbin, Masahiro Tanaka, Gerrit Cole

Mid-Range – Jon Gray, Zach Eflin

Punt – Sam Gaviglio

Stacks to Consider – Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees, Houston Astros, Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Mets

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.