Fantasy Football Quarterback Tiers 2018

Draft Weekend may be over with but there’s still a ton of fantasy football leagues that need drafted before the season kicks off so I’m here to share my personal quarterback tiers!

We’re getting closer everyday to the kickoff of the NFL season which means most fantasy football  players are in a mad dash to get drafts completed. If you have yet to draft or if you haven’t prepared like you should, I’m going to have tiers of different positions coming out for that final push for fantasy glory! I always try to keep my positions grouped by tiers, meaning I think the outcomes are generally among the same through that grouping of players. I’ll list off my tiers with some quick thoughts about each player as to why they’re in a certain tier.

Today we’re doing quarterback and it’s a loaded position. Whether you play in four or six point touchdown passing leagues, it doesn’t make a monster difference to me since each player is under the same scoring system. Even in a two-QB league, I’m comfortable waiting and taking later quarterbacks and playing the different match-ups and building a great corps of skill players. I’m @bucn4life on twitter with any other questions you might have and let’s get rolling!

Fantasy Football Quarterbacks – Tier 1

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – I don’t generally end up with Rodgers as he goes too early in the draft but he’s still the top fantasy quarterback in my book. If he plays 16 games, 40 touchdown passes isn’t out of the question and you certainly feel safe saying he’ll be in the 32-35 range. Even though the receiving corps is a bit unsettled, tight end Jimmy Graham should be a big time addition in the red zone. Davante Adams looked to be the real deal as a number one receiver and Rodgers has the highest chance to end as the QB1, even in a loaded position group.

Fantasy Football Quarterbacks – Tier 2

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers – I love Newton as a fantasy asset when I look at his end of the season score but he can be a little up and down. If rookie receiver D.J. Moore can contribute, this might be the most talented offensive group Newton has had. If Rodgers doesn’t finish at number one, I’d bet on it being Newton.

Tom Brady, New England Patriots – You’re not going to get an argument out of me that Brady is one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game. His receiving corps looks a bit underwhelming right now but he still has tight end Rob Gronkowksi. Let’s face it, if there’s a QB who can make a ragtag of receivers into a dynamite offense, Brady is it. My one issue with him is he always seems to underwhelm during the fantasy playoffs.

December 2017 – 240.6 yards per game, 1.2 TD per game, 1 INT per game

December 2016 – 269.3 YPG, 1.75 TD per game, 0.25 INT per game

December 2015 – 259 YPG, 2 TD per game, 0.75 INT per game

December 2014 – 216.5 YPG, 1.25 TD per game, 0.75 INT per game

That’s a four year sample size of some fairly mediocre numbers. Maybe its cherry picking a certain month, but it’s something to be aware of as he’s well over 40 years old.

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks – I’m not sure there’s a high-end quarterback working with less than Wilson. That’s especially true if receiver Doug Baldwin‘s knee injury melts into Week 1. Wilson is a master at making something out of nothing and the rushing upside is a total cheat code but he’s not as safe as he’s been these past few seasons. Losing passing game options like Paul Richardson and Jimmy Graham didn’t help.

Deshaun Watson – What we saw from Watson last year was almost too unbelievable to even put into words. There’s no doubt he’s going to regress, it’s just a matter of how much. With the 1-2 punch of DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller combined with his rushing ability, I think Watson still is a top five QB. He’s just going too early for me to take in a normal redraft league.

Fantasy Football Quarterbacks – Tier 3

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts – I proclaimed Luck as one of “my guys” earlier in this off-season and my stance has softened a little bit. He’s right on the bubble for where I won’t take him because he’s about to creep into the top eight at the quarterback position. While I think Luck can be a top five guy, he hasn’t looked like he’s 100 percent back to what we had grown accustomed to. I don’t want to take him in the top eight to be wrong. It’s good to see him back playing but we haven’t seen as much as I was hoping for so far, but some of that came without receiver T.Y. Hilton.

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints – Brees is one of the more confusing guys for me at this position. Anyone who looks at his yards and touchdowns from last year and just proclaims that Brees is done if fooling themselves. Brees played at a wildly high level, he just saw his pass attempts drop by almost 140 passes in 2017. He also saw some poor touchdown luck as his TD% was at 4.3, far below his career 5.3 mark. I expect that number to come back to the normal, but Brees is backend top 12 for me because the Saints are a different team now. They usually won’t need to throw the ball as much as they did.

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings – This just might be the most talented offense Cousins has ever played in. Cousins has thrown for over 4,000 yards three straight years and I think he has an outside chance of hitting 5,000. The trio of Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph are going to be exceptionally hard to defend and Cousins might well prove to be the missing piece for a Super Bowl run for Minnesota.

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers – Before someone gets all uptight about a homer pick, just remember these factors. Pittsburgh is planning to run more no-huddle offense in 2018 and that will surely give Roethlisberger more opportunity. The defense also has to prove they have recovered from the unfortunate loss of linebacker Ryan Shazier. After he was hurt, that defense couldn’t stop a nose bleed so the offense might be in some shootouts. Finally, the notorious home/road splits didn’t really show up last year.

Home – 7.4 yards per attempt, 16 TD, 8 INT

Road – 7.8 yards per attempt, 12 TD, 6 INT

Those aren’t numbers that steer you away from a quarterback. At least they shouldn’t be. Big Ben helms one of the best offenses in football and he can be the quarterback on my team any day.

Fantasy Football Quarterbacks – Tier 4

Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles – Even though he’s due some regression for touchdowns, the only reason Wentz is this low is because he hasn’t been cleared for contact yet. The second he his, he jumps at least one tier for me. If he starts on the PUP list, you can’t draft him in a redraft league.

Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers – This might be the player that scares me the most about having too low in the position group. He walked into the Kyle Shanahan offense last year and was putting up a 5,000 yard pace after getting the playbook mid-season. If you want to know how complex that offense is, ask Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan the year before he won MVP. The 49ers added weapons in running back Jerick McKinnon, receiver Dante Pettis and Pierre Garcon is back this year as well.

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions – He always seems to get overlooked, but Stafford is a perfectly fine QB1 if you wait on it during the draft. Offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter is still there so Stafford has every chance to be in the 10-14 range every single week and should be fairly reliable. The Lions might run the ball a little better but that could help keep opposing defenses off the pass game like they’ve been able to for years.

Phillip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers – Much like Stafford, Rivers is an easy player to stage if you waited a while on the position. He may not be flashy but he has the energy of having approximately 1,214,834 children and just gets the job done for you. Losing tight end Hunter Henry was a serious blow but the team is hoping receiver Mike Williams steps up and helps fill that void.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs – You’re going to get some ups and downs with Mahomes, but those ceiling games are going to be incredible this year. His defense also hasn’t looked up to snuff yet as most of their first teasers got smoked by the Bears second team offense in Week 3 of the preseason. His bazooka arm and receiver Tyreek Hill look like they can be a perfect match this year. Just be prepared for a couple down games.

Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars – That’s right, everyone’s favorite punching bag at quarterback is up in this tier for me. Is he a good real life quarterback? Not at all. The Jags should be calling about Teddy Bridgewater from the Jets. However, all I care about is fantasy points. In his three seasons, Bortles has two top 10 finishes to his name and finished 13th last year. The guy just gets it done.

Fantasy Football Quarterbacks – Tier 5

Tyrod Taylor, Cleveland Browns – If I thought TyGod was starting the entire season, he might be up near Tier 2. That’s how firmly I believe that he’ll be a dominant fantasy QB when he’s playing.  This is clearly both the most talent he’s ever had around him and the first time he’ll be in a not-Rex Ryan- style offense. He’s going to be good but as the Browns fall out of contention, the cries to play Baker Mayfield will get louder.

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Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons –It’s not a question of talent or surrounding crew for Ryan. It’s a matter of offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian and him not looking like he knew what he was doing through parts of last season. If he’s learned from his mistakes last year, Ryan could be top 12 yet again.

Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams – Goff showed exponential growth last year and threw for an elite 5.9 touchdown rate, the Rams led the league in scoring…and Goff still didn’t finish in the top 10 at his position. That quarterback position got stronger this off-season and I’ll let someone else buy the fantasy hype. The Rams should be a great offense, but Goff is not a top flight quarterback option to go with it.

Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans – Matt LaFleur was Brough in as the offensive coordinator to try to unlock the potential brimming for Mariota on the surface. Another option that could be fighting for a top 12 spot, we just don’t know how the offense will gell in a real game yet.

Alex Smith, Washington Redskins – He might be boring but Smith should be a solid bet every week as a streaming option, if nothing else. The loss of running back Derrius Guice puts even more pressure on him to acclimate to Washington right away but he should be up to the task. Receiver Jamison Crowder should be the go-to target for Smith this year.

Eli Manning – Other analysts have said this all off-season and I couldn’t agree more – either you think Odell Beckham, Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram are being way over-drafted or Manning is the top 10 quarterback option nobody is taking about. I usually don’t take him because I land on other guys, but don’t be shocked in Manning is a QB1 this year by default with the weapons around him.

Dak Presscott, Dallas Cowboys – I’ll feel a lot more comfortable with this if rookie receiver Michael Gallup is the reliable piece that he is. Prescott also has some good rushing upside since he’s in the same backfield as Ezekiel Elliot. Much like Zeke, He needs the offensive line to get healthy quick.

Others I would draft in a deep league – Mitch Trubisky, Case Keenum, Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield to pair with Taylor if the league is deep enough.