NFL Fantasy Check Down: Preseason Closure Notes for the AFC East
As we all know, week 3 of the NFL Preseason offers fantasy owners a brief, last-minute NFL Fantasy scouting session for their upcoming drafts (or the first batch of waiver wire action for those who already completed their drafts). We’ll do a team by team, fantasy review and post them each day by division, starting with the AFC East.
Here is a brief recap of what we saw in week 3 of the preseason, and what players we can label as “NFL fantasy assets” heading into the 2018 fantasy campaign. Let’s dive into the Fantasy Check Down: Preseason Closure Notes for the AFC East.
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NFL Fantasy Check Down: Week 3 NFL Preseason AFC East Recap
Buffalo Bills
Honestly, there is not a whole lot to say about the Buffalo Bills in regards to fantasy football relevance. They are going to be bad, I mean, really bad. We still don’t know who is going to start at QB for the Bills, but unless you’re in a 14-team 2QB league (which would be tough to manage with bye-weeks), you’re not going to be drafting Nate Peterman, Josh Allen, or AJ McCarron.
Rookie gunslinger, Josh Allen did get the opportunity to start week 3’s match-up against the Bengals, but there was nothing positive to note from his performance on Sunday night. If you’re in a deep dynasty league, MAYBE Allen is a prospect you have your eye on, but the only good thing I could say about him was that he was durable.
Allen got sacked five times due to an awful showing by the Bills offensive line, but he did get up without injury all five times. We’ll take the small wins, I guess. Nate Peterman did look solid when he was called upon, completing 16 of 21 passes for 200 yards and a score. Nate could have thrown for 400 yards and you still weren’t going to draft him, so we’ll leave it at that.
From a fantasy aspect, the only guys worth targeting on your draft boards/waivers would be: LeSean McCoy, Charles Clay and Kelvin Benjamin. We all know what Shady McCoy can do on the field, but he is getting older, and running behind a brutal offensive line. Draft with caution, and only take him if the price is right. Personally, I would let him walk, unless he is sitting there in the middle of round four.
In a year where your options at the tight end position are incredibly thin, I have no problem with Charles Clay suiting up as your TE1 this season. The Bills are going to be chasing points on a weekly basis, and Clay has proven time and time again, that he is a reliable pass catcher. For what it’s worth, he also led the team in targets (6) in the match-up against the Bengals. Look for that to happen often once the regular season begins.
If you’re in an insanely deep PPR league, Travaris Cadet may be someone to keep an eye on, but that is getting extremely close to the bottom of the barrel for running backs.
Buffalo Bills 2018 Fantasy Assets:
- LeSean McCoy (RB2, at best)
- Charles Clay (borderline TE1)
- Kelvin Benjamin (WR3)
- Travaris Cadet (potential waiver wire target in PPR leagues)
Miami Dolphins
Similar to the situation in Buffalo, there is not much fantasy love to be had in Miami. Ryan Tannehill is Ryan Tannehill – nothing more, nothing less. He isn’t much of a fantasy asset. According to Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Leaders, the last time Tannehill finished as a top-10 fantasy QB was in 2014 when he threw for 27 touchdowns. That is probably the last time we’ll see Tannehill’s name on the top-10 fantasy QB leader board.
When looking at Roto Baller’s Offensive Line Power Rankings, you’ll find the Miami Dolphins towards the bottom at #21. This isn’t awful, but it isn’t good. Don’t expect Tannehill to get a lot of time in a comfortable pocket. Luckily, he’s one of the more mobile quarterbacks in the league, so he should be able to provide fantasy owners with some rushing yards.
Tannehill was average in his week 3 run-through against the Baltimore Ravens, passing for 115 yards and a touchdown. Nothing to write home about, but he certainly looked like he was ready to go after missing all of 2017 with a knee injury. As we’ve seen throughout his career, he has an average floor, with a very low ceiling. Don’t draft Tannehill unless you’re in a 2QB league (preferably only as your QB3).
Although there has been some hype from fantasy owners on rookie running back Kalen Ballage, Kenyan Drake is the running back to own in Miami. If you had the opportunity to pick up Kenyan Drake last year, once Jay Ajayi was traded to Philadelphia, you probably won a few match-ups on Drake’s production alone.
It appears that most fantasy owners forgot how explosive Kenyan Drake can be once he has the ball in his hands. From Fantasy Pros Average Draft Position (half point PPR), Drake is being drafted after guys like Derrick Henry, Alex Collins, and a banged up Jerick McKinnon in the middle of round 3.
Based on what I’ve seen thus far from Kenyan Drake in the preseason (yes, it’s only the preseason), he should be drafted early in the third round – definitely above Derrick Henry and maybe, Alex Collins (in PPR leagues). Kenyan was the player to watch for Miami when he was on the field in Saturday’s preseason game against Baltimore. He was extremely efficient with 4 carries for 32 yards, and one catch for 36 yards. When called upon in this year’s preseason snaps, Kenyan has produced.
Kenyan Drake Total 2018 Preseason Stats:
- 15 carries for 102 yards
- 5 receptions for 47 yards
In 2017, Drake rushed for an effective 4.8 yards per carry and hauled in 32 catches. Given the fact that he didn’t get much of an opportunity until Ajayi was gone, it’s safe to project that those numbers go up in 2018.
Maybe he finishes with lower in his yards per carry (with this poor offensive line, that would make sense), but he is certainly going to be one of the favorite targets Tannehill uses in the passing game. Count on Kenyan Drake to start off the season as a 3-down style runner and bring RB2 production to your fantasy team.
Everything else I’ve seen from the Miami Dolphins preseason match-ups (mainly week 3) was nothing special. Danny Amendola looks to be the same Danny Amendola we all know and respect. Amendola did lead the Dolphins in targets (4) in the final tune-up for the starters, so there’s some confidence he can be a nice WR3 on PPR fantasy rosters, until he inevitably gets injured.
If you’ve read my article from last week on Fantasy Football Value Picks, you’d know I’m a little high on DeVante Parker. Outside of Kenyan Drake, I believe Parker is the next best fantasy option in Miami. He has not yet suited up in a preseason game, and is most likely going to miss the week one opener against the Titans.
I do not see Kenny Stills being the #1 WR in Miami once all is said and done, but he has been on the field with the ones – lining up on the outside. He caught all three of his targets in week 3’s game versus the Ravens, but only for a total of 28 yards.
There isn’t much that makes me think Stills is fantasy relevant. We can put him down as a WR3 for the time being, but look for Parker, Amendola, and Mike Gesicki to be the main passing threats in Miami once they get their sea legs under them.
Miami Dolphins 2018 Fantasy Assets:
(TE to have on your waiver wire radar)
New England Patriots
It would have been great to see what first round pick, Sony Michel would look like in the Patriots’ offense. Unfortunately, due to an ailing knee issue, he did not suit up. What we did see out of the backfield, probably, is not going to matter. The Patriots seemed to feature Jeremy Hill, and Mike Gillislee at running back throughout the 2018 preseason.
Let’s assume this is just a battle between those two to simply make the team. Neither of them should be on your fantasy radar heading into the 2018 season. Tom Brady looked like he always does and you know what you’re going to get from Rob Gronkowski. So what did we actually learn from the Patriots’ preseason?
To be quite honest, I’m not sure how to read the Patriots’ preseason. The WR2 position (while Julian Edelman is suspended) seems to be the hardest thing to forecast. If I had to make a decision today, I’d say Cordarrelle Patterson is going to be that guy. We’ve been waiting years for the day Patterson‘s talent takes over and turns him into an NFL fantasy stud. Although that day may never come, I think this is the best opportunity for that to happen.
Cordarrelle has produced at a nice rate in the 2018 preseason. He has hauled in 11 catches for a total of 126 yards and a touchdown. It seems like he is going to get a chance to play a significant amount of snaps while Edelman is out. On paper, you have to like the upside here, but who knows what will come of it.
The running back situation looks to be a certain time share between James White and Rex Burkhead, with a little bit of Sony Michel worked in there until fully healthy. Have you ever had success in projecting the Patriots’ backfield? No? Well, neither have I. I don’t think that changes this year.
It’s safe to say James White is going to be a nice PPR fantasy player. Rex Burkhead may be as well. I’d love to see what Sony Michel can do in a Josh McDaniel’s offense. All in all, I’m staying away from Patriots’ running backs early in drafts. If the price is right for James White, Rex Burkhead, and Sony Michel, I have no problem with you drafting them. Just ensure you’re getting them in a respectable spot in the draft.
New England Patriots 2018 NFL Fantasy Assets:
- Tom Brady (QB1)
- Rob Gronkowski (TE1)
- James White (RB2 in PPR formats, RB3/flex in standard)
- Chris Hogan (low-end WR2 until Edelman returns)
- Rex Burkhead (RB2 in PPR formats, RB3/flex in standard)
- Sony Michel (would keep on bench to begin the season, RB2 upside)
- Julian Edelman (WR2 when back from suspension)
- Cordarrelle Patterson (low-end WR3, very interesting upside)
New York Jets
According to OddsShark’s, Gilles Gallant’s post of the 2018 NFL Over/Under Season Win Totals, the New York Jets are tied with the Bills at the second lowest win total, prop bet at six. That is ugly, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t NFL fantasy upside with the Jets’ offense.
They do have one of the worst offensive lines in football, and that usually leads to an ineffective offense, but they should be down early in games this season and forced to get aggressive on offense. Hopefully this leads to some NFL fantasy points.
The main question here is similar to that of the divisional foe Buffalo Bills, who is going to be the QB1 for the Jets? Sam Darnold seems to be getting a fair share to win the job, but we’ve seen a lot of Teddy Bridgewater throughout the first three preseason games. In conclusion, lets stay away from drafting Jets QBs this season. If you’re in a dynasty league, Sam Darnold would be the QB to own. I just wouldn’t expect much NFL fantasy upside with this receiving core and poor offensive line.
Isaiah Crowell will start week one and handle most of the duties at the running back position. He has done nothing notable this preseason, but we all know what type of player Crowell is. Crowell isn’t going to do anything that will make you jump out of your chair on Sundays, but he should get plenty of carries that hopefully lead to a some touchdowns. He’s being drafted as an RB3 right now, and I think that is spot on.
If you’re in a PPR league, you’ve probably picked up Bilal Powell off of the waiver wire every single season at some point in time. This year, he should probably just be drafted. He continues to be a solid contributor to the Jets’ passing game, and has rushed for over 700 yards in each of the past two seasons. He’s not going to win you your league, but he’s worth a bench stash with the occasional start in the flex position (especially in PPR leagues).
Robby Anderson looks to be the only Jets wide-out getting his named called in 2018 fantasy drafts. Keep in mind, his legal issue is still under review, so there may be a possibility for suspension. Tyler Cavaruso of Jets Wire wrote an article that stated:
“All felony charges from [Anderson’s] January arrest have been dropped, but the league may opt to impose its own penalties against New York’s No. 1 wide receiver. According to precedent, Anderson is likely to face a one- or two-game suspension if the league decides to take action.”
I’m doubting he gets a suspension at all, but the threat is still there, so draft accordingly. There really isn’t much else outside of Anderson in the New York Jets’ receiving core. Terrelle Pryor did score a touchdown in Friday’s week 3 match-up against the Giants. Maybe his massive frame and influx of talent is going to lead to a breakout fantasy season? That probably won’t be the case, but Pryor may be worth a flyer later in drafts or at a minimum, a target for your waiver wire this season.
I don’t like anything the Jets are currently deploying at the tight end position. Jordan Leggett had a nice career as a tight end at Clemson, I just don’t see him having an impact in the fantasy community just yet.
New York Jets 2018 Fantasy Assets:
- Robby Anderson (WR2)
- Isaiah Crowell (RB3)
- Bilal Powell (low-end RB3 in standard leagues, RB3/flex in PPR)
- Sam Darnold/Teddy Bridgewater (low-end QB3)
- Terrelle Pryor (bench stash to start the season, potential WR2 upside)
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