DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown – Tuesday, August 28

Welcome into the Tuesday edition of the DFS MLB Game by Game Breakdown! We have the normal monster slate on tap so let’s jump in!

It was another solid night DFS MLB Monday on a seven game slate as we avoided the Tanaka bomb and had just enough offense to make things work. Thank goodness for Alex Bregman because the Blue Jays offense was awful but 44 points from Bregman erased some of that. Both lineups cleared 145 and we’ll look to keep the ball rolling tonight.

DFS MLB – White Sox at Yankees

White Sox Probable Starter – James Shields, RHP 

4.59 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 18.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .210 average, .298 wOBA, 19.3 K rate, 42.6 fly ball rate and 31.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .270 average, .340 wOBA, 17.0 K rate, 44.4 fly ball rate and 35.3 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix

There’s not a ton to latch onto for the pitch mix for Shields as nothing is over 33 percent. He has been better than the perception is this season, especially against left-handed hitters. The problem he might run into tonight is A. he’s giving up gobs of fly balls and B. the dangerous part of the Yankee lineup bats righty. Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres and Giancarlo Stanton are all over .200 in ISO against righty pitching and Luke Voit was kind of overlooked here yesterday but is a fine option as he continues to be so cheap. Greg Bird could fly under the radar here a bit and I don’t think he’s a good hitter. However, he leads the Yanks in fly ball rate at just over 50 percent. A “Yankee Stadium special” home run could be a very possible outcome.

Yankees Hitters to Target 

Elite Options -Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Options – Luke Voit, Greg Bird

Yankees Probable Starter – Lance Lynn, RHP 

4.84 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 23.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .297 average, .377 wOBA, 16.3 K rate, 24.5 fly ball rate and 39.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .239 average, .302 wOBA, 27.7 K rate, 30.4 fly ball rate and 33.8 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Yankees xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

I think we have to consider some White Sox here, especially some of the cheaper ones to get up to more expensive bats. Lynn throws a ton of four seamers and sinkers and a few lefties from the Sox do well against those pitches. Leading the charge for me is Yoan Moncada because for all his flaws, he will do damage if you don’t strike him out. He gets the ball in the air about six percent more than Daniel Palka, who I also think is a great option. Both these hitters have an ISO over .255 on the pitch mix and Moncada can also steal a base if the ball stays in the park. Lynn can be a tournament option with the high strikeout rate for the Sox but nothing that should be considered safe.

White Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Yoan Moncada

Secondary Options – Daniel Palka, Yolmer Sanchez

Home Run Pick – Yoan Moncada

DFS MLB – Blue Jays at Orioles

Blue Jays Probable Starter – Thomas Pannone, LHP 

1.59 ERA, 0.62 WHIP and 21.4 strikeout rate(11.1 IP)

Vs LHH – .200 average, .281 wOBA, 36.4 K rate, 40.0 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .071 average, .124 wOBA, 16.1 K rate, 50.0 fly ball rate and 26.1 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Orioles xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

I wouldn’t get to carried away with the metrics here for Pannone seeing as how he hasn’t even hit 12 innings in the majors. The part that has to scare you is the lack of strikeouts and the fly ball rate to righty hitters, which he’ll likely see a lot of. I think my two favorite Orioles are going to be Trey Mancini and Jonathan Villar. Mancini has been killing lefty fastballs this season with an ISO well over .300 and an xwOBA of .393. Villar has scuffled a little with the Orioles against lefty pitching, but also had a .333 ISO while with Milwaukee earlier this season. There’s really not a lot of positive stats for Baltimore against lefties as they rank in the bottom six in average, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+ so I’d be careful with going overboard on hitters. If you want to get really nuts, Pannone could be a viable(albeit very dangerous GPP) option.

Orioles Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Trey Mancini, Jonathan Villar

Orioles Probable Starter – Josh Rogers, LHP

Rogers will be making his debut tonight and what he’s shown in the minors isn’t all that promising. He’s only striking out around 18 percent of his batters faced and he’s not a huge ground ball pitcher. The two hitters that I like tonight are Devon Travis, who strikes out under 13 percent of the time and brings some pop. Teoscar Hernandez is up next with an ISO approaching .300 versus southpaw pitching. I won’t go nuts with Jays after they stung me last night but I like a couple hitters and a Blue Jays stack will be under the radar for sure.

Blue Jays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Devon Travis, Teoscar Hernandez

Secondary Options -Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales

Home Run Pick – Devon Travis

DFS MLB – Nationals at Phillies

Nationals Probable Starter – Max Scherzer, RHP 

2.13 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 34.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .192 average, .257 wOBA, 31.5 K rate, 48.4 fly ball rate and 27.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .161 average, .229 wOBA, 38.0 K rate, 44.0 fly ball rate and 33.9 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix

We actually got this exact matchup last week and we tried to find some under the radar hitters to use against Scherzer. That was a four game slate though and this one is almost four times the size so I’m not going anywhere near the hitters in this game, especially against Scherzer. There’s just not enough probability to take the risk on a slate this size. The only question is whether we want to pay the massive price tag and my initial lean is no, just because I think there’s some really great pivots that can build a better offense.

Phillies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Phillies Probable Starter – Aaron Nola, RHP 

2.13 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 25.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .194 average, .244 wOBA, 25.3 K rate, 31.7 fly ball rate and 25.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .195 average, .237 wOBA, 25.8 K rate, 28.3 fly ball rate and 23.9 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix 

We can pretty much copy everything I just said for Scherzer into this space with two notable exceptions. The first is Bryce Harper actually does hit Nola well through 27 at-bats with a .333 average, two home runs and a .362 xwOBA. That also comes with a 30 percent strikeout rate so he’s nothing more than a deep GPP play. The other exception is I’m more willing to play Nola in this spot than Scherzer. He’s cheaper and he’s owned the rest of the Nationals lineup through 191 plate appearances with a 28 percent strikeout rate and only allowing a .223 average and a .255 xwOBA.

Nationals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Home Run Pick – I think there’s a very legitimate chance we don’t see one tonight in this game

BOSTON, MA – AUGUST 2: Brian Johnson #61 of the Boston Red Sox pitcher sin the second inning of a game against ethics’s New York Yankees at Fenway Park on August 2, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)

DFS MLB – Marlins at Red Sox

Marlins Probable Starter – Jose Urena, RHP 

4.50 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 18.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .262 average, .326 wOBA, 16.4 K rate, 31.7 fly ball rate and 42.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .235 average, .286 wOBA, 21.5 K rate, 27.3 fly ball rate and 36.7 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Red Sox xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

A pitcher who is fastball heavy in Fenway has the chance to get blown up tonight so the Red Sox might be pretty popular. Urena isn’t a gas can by any stretch but this is a good offense that he’s going to be facing and I like the lefties a little bit more as a starting point. Urena has only given up four homers to righties all season long while he’s up at 11 to lefties. Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez both have an ISO over .300 versus righty four seamers so I’m not telling you their bad plays. I’m just a little more hesitant to spend up on the tonight since Urena has a 0.34 HR/9 to righties on the road. Mitch Moreland and Andrew Benintendi both have xwOBA’s over .455 and ISO’s over .260 against righty fastballs and represent savings over Betts and Martinez.

Red Sox Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mitch Moreland, Andrew Benintendi

Secondary Options – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Brock Holt

Red Sox Probable Starter – Brian Johnson, LHP 

4.12 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 21.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .229 average, .293 wOBA, 23.1 K rate, 44.3 fly ball rate and 25.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .272 average, .334 wOBA, 20.2 K rate, 39.8 fly ball rate and 33.3 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Marlins xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

I’m torn in this spot because while the Marlins don’t strike out nearly as much as some may think, they are still pretty putrid against lefty pitching. They’re in the bottom 10 in baseball in average, slug, OBP, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+ against south paws and there’s a strong case to be made that Johnson is cheap enough to play even if the strikeout upside isn’t massive. I think the only two hitters really worth a possible play is J.T. Realmuto and Brian Anderson. They both have a high ISO against the two main pitches for Johnson and Anderson leads the regulars in OPS, wOBA and ISO on the season. I don’t think there’s any reason to play too much from this Marlins lineup tonight.

Marlins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Brian Anderson

Secondary Options – J.T. Realmuto

Home Run Pick – Brian Anderson

DFS MLB – Brewers at Reds

Brewers Probable Starter – Junior Guerra, RHP 

3.72 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 21.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .251 average, .339 wOBA, 21.5 K rate, 37.7 fly ball rate and 38.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .250 average, .314 wOBA, 21.9 K rate, 36.4 fly ball rate and 37.7 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Reds xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

Guerra has been a little bit better than average this season so I’m not running to the Reds in this matchup. The splits look even but the home runs to lefties is at 11 compared to just six allowed to righties. The problem is finding a lefty from the Reds you really like. Scooter Gennett and Scott Schebler both hit from that side but aren’t huge power threats and the pitch mix numbers aren’t crazy high. Schebler is the best against the four seam/sinker mix that Guerra throws often with a .203 ISO and a .393 xwOBA. It’s unwise to put a ton of stock into this, but Eugenio Suarez does have a .444 average, one home run and a .639 xwOBA in 12 career plate appearances versus Guerra.

Reds Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Scooter Gennett, Scott Schebler, Eugenio Suarez

Reds Probable Starter – Anthony DeSclafani, RHP 

4.26 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 20.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .255 average, .360 wOBA, 19.2 K rate, 42.2 fly ball rate and 38.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .240 average, .281 wOBA, 22.6 K rate, 31.8 fly ball rate and 44.1 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Brewers xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

Another night, another game where a lefty Brewers stack makes all the sense in the world. Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw and Eric Thames are all over .235 in ISO against the main two pitches for DeSclafani, who is carrying a massive 3.06 HR/9 to lefties on the road. These four would eat up $14,700 of your salary cap on FanDuel but if there’s a night to use that money on a four man stack, this could be it. I would skip the righties here because DeSclafani can control that side of the plate pretty well. If we have to rank the four lefties, I would go Yelich, Shaw, Moustakas and Thames in that order. Leaving Thames out of the stack probably wouldn’t be the worst move with how poorly he’s been hitting lately. Anytime Yelich and Shaw face a righty and aren’t over $4,000 they’re pretty solid bets.

Brewers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw

Secondary Options – Mike Moustakas, Eric Thames

Home Run Pick – Mike Moustakas

DFS MLB – Twins at Indians

Twins Probable Starter – Kyle Gibson, RHP 

3.63 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 22.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .247 average, .307 wOBA, 19.1 K rate, 34.1 fly ball rate and 38.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .224 average, .303 wOBA, 25.5 K rate, 25.9 fly ball rate and 38.9 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Indians xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

Gibson is a really solid major leaguer but this Indians offense is a formidable task. This is also going to be the fifth time Cleveland has seen Gibson this year and I wonder if he’s got anything left up his sleeve to get the Indians out tonight. You can’t talk about the Indians without talking about the massive numbers for Jose Ramirez with an OPS over 1.070, an ISO over .355 and a wOBA over .435, not even talking about the .514 ISO against the pitch mix. He’s also just $4,600 on FanDuel which is expensive but also a good bit lower than we normally can get Ramirez at. An underrated part of the offense tonight might be the .291 ISO Edwin Encarnacion carries against the pitch mix who has four bombs against Gibson and the Twins starter has given up more homers to righties. The Cleveland stack is a little riskier than normal.

Indians Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Options – Michael Brantley, Yonder Alonso

Indians Probable Starter – Carlos Carrasco, RHP 

3.55 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 28.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .246 average, .295 wOBA, 29.1 K rate, 31.7 fly ball rate and 36.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .241 average, .289 wOBA, 26.9 K rate, 35.3 fly ball rate and 40.4 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Twins xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

I really don’t know what to do with Carrasco here tonight. He’s been worse at home which is a career trend. He’s faced this Twins team twice recently and it illustrates the splits perfectly. When he pitched in Minnesota, he racked up 62 FanDuel points. When the game was on Cleveland, Carrasco put up a 38. I would lean towards the 38 point game being the likelier outcome tonight so this game is mostly a steer clear spot for me. I’m not willing to pay $10,000 for Carrasco but I don’t want to actively target him either. I think the only two hitter that you might want is Eddie Rosario who has a .221 ISO and a .361 wOBA on the season against righties. Miguel Sano has power but the strikeout rate is over 37 percent.

Twins Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Eddie Rosario

Home Run Pick – Edwin Encarnacion

DFS MLB – Rays at Braves

Rays Probable Starter – Bullpen Day 

The plan is to have Yonny Chirinos be the main pitcher tonight and he’s had some mixed success in the role so far. It seems like you can get single digits from him or right about 30 points. Atlanta is striking out at a pretty low rate so I don’t think this is a spot where you can get the high-end for points. Chirinos doesn’t give up too many home runs to either side of the plate as his HR/9 is under 1.00 to each side. If you want to use Braves, I would stick to Freddie Freeman or Ronald Acuna. I just don’t want to target the Rays bullpen on such a big slate to any major extent.

Braves Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman

Braves Probable Starter – Julio Teheran, RHP 

4.09 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 22.2 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .204 average, .319 wOBA, 17.6 K rate, 42.5 fly ball rate and 40.5 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .191 average, .284 wOBA, 26.6 K rate, 39.6 fly ball rate and 35.1 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Rays xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

The range of outcomes is pretty wide for Teheran, just like any other night. He’s going to throw a fastball or a sinker 60 percent of the time and there are a couple of Rays hitters that smash that mix. Jake Bauers looks like the best possible option and even though he’s cooled down, he still has an ISO over .200 and a wOBA over .320 on the year. The pitch mix is where he really stands out with a .429 xwOBA and a .324 ISO against the pitch mix for Teheran. He’s given up more bombs to righties this year so if you want to head to that side of the plate, C.J. Cron has a .422 xwOBA and .243 ISO verses the mix and Tommy Pham could be in play, although he’s generally better against lefty pitching.

Rays Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Jake Bauers

Secondary options – C.J. Cron, Tommy Pham

Home Run Pick – Jake Bauers

DFS MLB – Dodgers at Rangers

Dodgers Probable Starter – Walker Buehler, RHP 

2.96 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 27.1 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .220 average, .275 wOBA, 27.7 K rate, 32.4 fly ball rate and 33.0 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .200 average, .255 wOBA, 26.7 K rate, 30.4 fly ball rate and 35.6 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Rangers xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

This is going to be a very interesting spot for the young righty for the Dodgers. Texas has plenty of power, especially down in Texas with the heat but they also strikeout about 25 percent of the time versus righty pitching. Buehler has been pretty even across the board as far as splits go with his strikeouts raising just a tick to lefty hitters. Only two regular hitters on the Rangers look great against righty fastballs and that’s Joey Gallo and Shin-soo Choo who both have ISO’s over .315 versus their pitch. The catch here is Buehler hasn’t been very home run prone so far this year, only giving up five to each side of the plate. I don’t think anything here is a cash game play and Buehler has a chance to be a great upside GPP option.

Rangers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Shin-soo Choo, Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor

Rangers Probable Starter – Ariel Jurado, RHP 

6.40 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 8.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .370 average, .453 wOBA, 8.2 K rate, 24.5 fly ball rate and 42.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .260 average, .307 wOBA, 8.8 K rate, 30.0 fly ball rate and 47.1 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Dodgers xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

This is such a terrible spot for Jurado, I’m not sure where to start. The Dodgers should be able to mash him because he can’t miss any bats so I want lefties that hit the sinker well because Jurado throws that pitch around 60 percent of the time. I might have close to 100 percent Yasmani Grandal tonight, especially on FanDuel where he’s only $3,200. He smashes righty sinkers with a .634 wOBA and .714 ISO and should be able to do some damage. Max Muncy wouldn’t be far behind as far as priority since he smashes righties in general at a .969 OPS and an ISO over .300 on the season. I might be a little more cautious with Joc Pederson and Cody Bellinger. They both sit at a .091 ISO versus righty sinkers so there might be a little more risk. I don’t think you can go too wrong if you play Manny Machado or Brian Dozier tonight either.

Dodgers Hitters to Target 

Elite options – Yasmani Grandal, Max Muncy, Manny Machado

Secondary Options – Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Brian Dozier

Home Run Pick – Yasmani Grandal

DFS MLB – Mets at Cubs

Mets Probable Starter – Jacob deGrom, RHP 

1.71 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 31.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .235 average, .276 wOBA, 29.5 K rate, 32.9 fly ball rate and 23.9 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .171 average, .207 wOBA, 33.5 K rate, 31.0 fly ball rate and 32.5 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Cubs xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

I will have exactly zero Cubs tonight against the man who should win the N.L. Cy Young. There might be some noise about playing Chicago if the wind is blowing out again but let’s take a look at some of the teams and venues that deGrom has succeeded in this year. He’s faced the Yankees twice and given up a total of four earned runs. He walked into Coors and dominated. He’s faced this Cubs team once already and went seven strong and struck out 13 hitters. That is an outlier but there’s no reason to think deGrom shouldn’t go out and be great in this spot. Anthony Rizzo has some BvP against deGrom as does Jason Heyward but it’s hard to get behind them as plays tonight.

Cubs Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Cubs Probable Starter – Cole Hamels, LHP 

3.82 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 22.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .259 average, .320 wOBA, 19.2 K rate, 20.0 fly ball rate and 30.3 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – 244 average, .326 wOBA, 23.6 K rate, 32.9 fly ball rate and 43.5 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix

I might have been a little hesitant to use Jon Lester against the Mets last night even though a lefty pitcher is their kryptonite. Tonight is a different story as Hamels has rediscovered his form from years ago. He’s pitched 34 innings as a Cub and has given up exactly three earned runs. Those results are too good to be true for the rest of the season but the Mets aren’t the team to get it done. The fly hitter I think is viable is Amed Rosario and that’s just because of the stolen base ability.

Mets Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Amed Rosario

Home Run Pick – Anthony Rizzo

DFS MLB – A’s at Astros

A’s Probable Starter – Edwin Jackson, RHP 

2.97 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 17.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .202 average, .296 wOBA, 16.4 K rate, 45.5 fly ball rate and 37.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .230 average, .289 wOBA, 18.3 K rate, 35.6 fly ball rate and 39.6 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Astros xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

I don’t want to get to tied up into the pitch data here because Jackson has been all over the place and the only pitch he has thrown with serious frequency is the cutter. The scary part if you’re Jackson is the top four in the Astros lineup is back together for the first time in a while. Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve and George Springer are baseball’s answer to the original nWo from back in wrestling’s heyday, doing whatever they want to opposing pitchers and running roughshod everywhere. They all have wOBA’s of at least .315 and ISO’s of at least .145 but they really seem to feed off of each other. I would want to stack those four much more than a one-off, with Bregman and Altuve being my favorites of the bunch. I don’t believe a 34-year-old Jackson is suddenly this good of a pitcher.

Astros Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Three/four man stack

Secondary Options – Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer

Astros Probable Starter – Charlie Morton, RHP 

3.05 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 29.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .213 average, .317 wOBA, 36.9 K rate, 36.8 fly ball rate and 39.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .212 average, .272 wOBA, 23.4 K rate, 25.5 fly ball rate and 24.4 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, A’s xwOBA and ISO Leader 

Morton has been a little rough these past couple of starts but he might be able to right the ship in this matchup. Oakland isn’t a huge strikeout team and this spot is a little similar to Gerrit Cole yesterday. The lefties are out of the picture for me with a strikeout rate of almost 37 percent. A difference between Morton and Cole is “Ground Chuck” is only giving up a fly ball to righties at a 25 percent clip. That’s significantly less than Cole and one of the reasons I’m willing to go back to a Houston pitcher tonight. The only hitters I would consider would be Khris Davis and maybe Matt Chapman as Davis has an ISO over .350 versus the pitch mix and Chapman is over .250. Morton being only the 10th most expensive pitcher on FanDuel helps me go back to him here tonight as well.

A’s Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Khris Davis, Matt Chapman

Home Run Pick – Jose Altuve

DFS MLB – Tigers at Royals

Tigers Probable Starter – Matt Boyd, LHP 

4.09 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 21.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .226 average, .295 wOBA, 26.5 K rate, 44.9 fly ball rate and 43.8 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .215 average, .285 wOBA, 20.6 K rate, 48.4 fly ball rate and 34.3 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Royals xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

I don’t know if you want to hitch your wagon to Boyd tonight since he’s not really anything special as a pitcher but there could be sneaky upside, relative to the price tag. We generally don’t think of the Royals as a team that strikes out a ton but they’re actually up to fourth in the league against lefty pitching. They also rank in the bottom five in all of our major offensive categories as a team so there’s only two players on the radar here. Whit Merrifield does have an OPS over .900 and a wOBA over .400 against lefties so far this season and he’s stolen 12 bases off of lefty pitchers. Salvador Perez is just shy of .200 in ISO and could hit a low-owned home run tonight but he’s not my favorite play.

Royals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez

Royals Probable Starter – Jakob Junis, RHP 

4.70 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 21.9 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .278 average, .354 wOBA, 18.5 K rate, 38.0 fly ball rate and 42.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .247 average, .326 wOBA, 25.0 K rate, 38.2 fly ball rate and 40.0 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Tigers xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

Junis continues to pitch a lot better since the All-Star break and has only given up two bombs over 36.1 innings pitched in that time frame. He’s never been a big strikeout pitcher at any point so he’s not in play for me but the matchup is pretty generous to him as well. Detroit is awful against righty pitching and in the course of 75 at-bats, Junis has yet to allow a home run to any one in the Tigers lineup. With Junis, you want to know who hits the slider well and both Niko Goodrum and Jim Aducci have ISO’s over .240 in small sample sizes. I think this game is better left alone on this slate as nothing screams a must-play.

Tigers Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Jim Aducci, Niko Goodrum, Nicholas Castellanos

Home Run Pick –  Whit Merrifield

DFS MLB – Pirates at Cardinals

Pirates Probable Starter – Ivan Nova, RHP 

4.20 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 16.4 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .284 average, .352 wOBA, 11.3 K rate, 38.7 fly ball rate and 31.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .251 average, .308 wOBA, 21.4 K rate, 28.7 fly ball rate and 34.3 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Cardinals xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

We want to focus on Matt Carpenter first because he’s just been so good these past couple months and this matchup is in his sweet spot. Nova is far worse to lefties, surrendering a 2.48 HR/9 on the road this season. For his part, Carpenter destroys righty four seamers and sinkers which makes up most of Nova’s pitches to the tune of a .517 xwOBA and a .370 ISO. He’s $4,300 on FanDuel but he is well worth the price tonight. Nova has also gotten beat up by this lineup in 81 at-bats. He’s given up a .333 average, .593 slug, .419 wOBA and a .427 xwOBA while only striking out about 12 percent of the hitters he faced. That now includes Matt Adams, who’s always a good bet against a righty that can’t miss bats. A full Cardinals stack could be in order with Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong, Matt Adams and Jedd Gyorko all as candidates.

Cardinals Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams

Secondary Options – Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong, Jedd Gyorko

Cardinals Probable Starter – Jack Flaherty, RHP 

2.97 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 31.0 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .183 average, .265 wOBA, 27.3 K rate, 33.8 fly ball rate and 33.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .203 average, .286 wOBA, 34.8 K rate, 38.6 fly ball rate and 35.1 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Pirates xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

The Pirates may not strikeout much as a team, but Flaherty has the habit of making a lot of teams look stupid. He’s on a roll, posting at least 49 FanDuel points in four straight starts. One of those games included him walking into the lion’s den known as Dodger Stadium and he mowed down that lineup with six strong innings and 10 strikeouts while only giving up one run. I might be a Pirates fan, but everyone knows this lineup can’t hold a candle to what is going on in LA. I really can’t talk myself into any Pirates and love Flaherty since he’s still under $10,000 tonight.

Pirates Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary options – None

Home Run Pick – Matt Adams

DFS MLB – Rockies at Angels

Rockies Probable Starter – Kyle Freeland, LHP 

2.96 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 20.6 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .176 average, .234 wOBA, 29.1 K rate, 34.4 fly ball rate and 27.1 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .251 average, .313 wOBA, 17.9 K rate, 33.3 fly ball rate and 32.6 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Angels xwOBA and ISO Leaders

I think there are better pitching options around the same salary as Freeland tonight but I also am not that interested in the Angels hitters tonight either. The lefties of Kole Calhoun and Shohei Ohtani are off the table for me here  so that pretty much leaves just Mike Trout. He does have a 1.089 OPS, .298 ISO and .448 wOBA on the season versus lefty pitching. Freeland is giving up a HR/9 under 1.00 on the road and it just doesn’t seem like the spot to deploy a bunch of Angel hitters tonight, especially when two of them are lefty.

Angels Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Mike Trout

Secondary options – None

Angels Probable Starter – TBD

We don’t have an announced starter for the Angels tonight so there’s not a lot to break down. If it happens to be a lefty, I’ll be all over Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story on a massive slate when they’re not in Coors Field. It will be more likely a righty pitcher so David Dah and Charlie Blackmon will be the favorites if that’s the case. We’ll see how the news breaks during the day as to who we should target.

Rockies Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – TBD

Secondary Options – TBD

Home Run Pick – Mike Tout

DFS MLB – Mariners at Padres

Mariners Probable Starter – Felix Hernandez, RHP 

5.64 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 17.8 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .261 average, .370 wOBA, 18.8 K rate, 40.0 fly ball rate and 40.4 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .265 average, .327 wOBA, 17.0 K rate, 31.0 fly ball rate and 37.3 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix 

There’s nothing 34 percent as far as the pitch data so that’s not something that I’d be crazy about trying to attack. This is an odd spot because I think King Felix could be worth a GPP flier since he’s so cheap but there’s no way around he’s been a very poor pitcher this season. The part that makes things difficult to figure out is the Padres are no better than 28th in all of the team offensive categories we always look at. They also currently lead the league in strikeout percentage so far this season against righty pitching so I think it’s either Wil Myers or maybe a dirt cheap Travis Jankowski and hope he steals a bag and scores a run. Hunter Renfroe is also a fine play with an ISO over .200 but no Padres hitter is somebody I’m looking to jam into the lineup tonight.

Padres Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe, Travis Jankowski

Padres Probable Starter – Jacob Nix, RHP 

6.17 ERA, 1.63 WHIP and 12.7 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .379 average, .437 wOBA, 9.4 K rate, 34.6 fly ball rate and 34.6 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .150 average, .220 wOBA, 17.4 K rate, 13.3 fly ball rate and 50.0 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Mariners xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

I don’t believe in the low splits for Nix against righty hitters and the Mariners could be a great pivot to the Dodgers tonight. Much like the Astros, the band is back together at the top of the lineup. Robinson Cano is back to go along with Mitch Haniger, Nelson Cruz, Dee Gordon and Jean Segura so this team could do some damage tonight against a very poor pitcher. Haniger stands out from a pitch data perspective with a .333 ISO against righty sinkers and Gordon and Segura could wreak havoc on the base paths. Cano hasn’t hit for much power this season with only five home runs, but bad things are going to happen if he can make so much contact.

Mariners Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Robinson Cano, Mitch Haniger, Jean Segura

Secondary Options – Dee Gordon, Nelson Cruz

Home Run Pick – Mitch Haniger

DFS MLB – Diamondbacks at Giants

Diamondbacks Probable Starter – Clay Buchholz, RHP 

2.25 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 21.3 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .189 average, .239 wOBA, 19.6 K rate, 35.7 fly ball rate and 30.2 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .247 average, .300 wOBA, 23.0 K rate, 39.3 fly ball rate and 45.3 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix 

I really don’t think you can pay the price that Buchholz is commanding tonight. He has been extremely productive, especially for what was expected of him this year(which was basically zero). The Giants offense isn’t one I want a piece of either given the ball park and the fact Buchholz has shown he’s still a quality pitcher. If you have to go after this game, I would stick to hitters like Brandon Belt of maybe Andrew McCutchen. Even then, there’s no major stat that I can point to and make a strong case for that play.

Giants Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Brandon Belt, Andrew McCutchen

Giants Probable Starter – Madison Bumgarner, LHP 

2.88 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 20.5 strikeout rate

Vs LHH – .242 average, .290 wOBA, 29.9 K rate, 26.8 fly ball rate and 35.7 hard hit rate

Vs RHH – .226 average, .297 wOBA, 18.6 K rate, 36.3 fly ball rate and 41.1 hard hit rate

Pitch Mix, Diamondbacks xwOBA and ISO Leaders 

We saw last start that Bumgarner still has some upside left in his arm but he also drew one of the best possible matchups last time out versus the Mets in New York. That won’t be the case tonight but I’m not terribly heavy on the Diamondbacks. Paul Goldschmidt will likely not get the attention he deserves because even in a pitcher’s park, he should be on the radar. In 63 at-bats, Goldy has a .333 average, .852 xsSLUG, a .550 xwOBA and three home runs. It’s hard to say he’s a better play than some of the other players at his position but that also guarantees he won’t be owned that highly. Bumgarner should have a solid game but there are pitchers around him that I like better.

Diamondbacks Hitters to Target 

Elite Options – Paul Goldschmidt

Secondary Options – None

Home Run Pick – Paul Goldschmidt

DFS MLB – Sample FanDuel Lineup

P – Jacob deGrom

C/1B – Yasmani Grandal

2B – Devon Travis 

3B – Brock Holt 

SS – Jean Segura 

OF – Dee Gordon, Austin Jackson, Teoscar Hernandez

Utility – Max Muncy  

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With all the offense available tonight, it might be a good night to scale back on the pitcher. It’s always easier to do that during the day, so it is possible to fit deGrom and put together a solid offense. We could make it a little more balanced by not paying up for Muncy but he and Grandal are in such a good spot it’s hard to ignore. Jackson and Holt are definitely punts that I wouldn’t be totally comfortable with but they’re not terrible options.

Pitching to Consider 

High End – Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Aaron Nola

Mid-Range – Jack Flaherty, Cole Hamels, Walker Buehler, Charlie Morton

Punts – Brian Johnson, Felix Hernandez

Stacks to Consider – Los Angels Dodgers(the sound you hear is Brian dancing for joy), Seattle Mariners, Yankees/White Sox game stack, St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers lefties, Houston Astros

As always, may fortune be on your side and make sure to follow me on Twitter @bucn4life as MLB allows late swap. If there’s a late scratch and/or lineup cards aren’t put in for the late games, this article will always be updated on Twitter ASAP.